2006 CommercialSpace TransportationForecast for Non-GeosynchronousOrbits
John Sloan
Federal Aviation Administration
Office of Commercial Space Transportation
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration
2NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 2
Introduction
Worldwide Commercial Launches
• 2006 forecast: poised for an increase in NGSO launch activity• NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally
competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads– Payloads that generate launch demand – Typically no secondary or dummy payloads
• Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches
NGSO GSO Total1996 2 21 231997 13 24 371998 19 19 381999 18 18 362000 9 20 292001 4 12 162002 4 20 242003 4 13 172004 2 13 152005 3 15 182006 est. 13 18 31
3NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 3
Satellite Forecast
160 satellites 2006–2015; average of 16.0 per year 11% increase compared to last year 144 in 2005 forecast, 106 in 2004, 80 in 2003
2006–2015 by sector • 61% International Science/Other• 27% Telecommunications• 12% Commercial Remote Sensing
2006 Satellite Forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sat
elli
tes
Little LEO Telecom
Big LEO Telecom
Commercial Remote Sensing
International Science/Other
4NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 4
Launch Forecast
69 total launches 2006–2015 8% increase compared to last year 64 launches in 2005, 51 in 2004 and 2003, 63 in 2002
Average of 6.9 launches per year • 3.6 medium-heavy launch vehicles • 3.3 small launch vehicles2006–2015 by sector • Int’l Science/Other 48 launches • Remote Sensing 14 launches• Telecommunications
7 launches
2006 Launch Forecast
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
La
un
che
s
Small (<2,268 kg LEO)
Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO)
5NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 5
Reasons for Near-Term Pile Up
1) An increase in the number of governments, companies, and non-profit organizations interested in NGSO satellites
2) The availability of low-cost launch vehicles that can service the small satellite market
3) Financial and technical delays for various systems that have caused manifests to back up
4) A confluence of planned replacements of commercial remote sensing and telecommunications systems
• Demand will likely not match actual launches but will fly eventually• Forecast of 13 launches in 2006 and 14 in 2007• Many systems are new to the market
• Development delays- financial and technical
• Historical schedule slips • Only one commercial NGSO launch in 2006 as of May 24
6NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 6
Near-Term ManifestService Type 2006 2007 2008 2009Commercial Remote Radarsat 2 - Soyuz GeoEye 1 - Delta 2 WorldView 2 - TBA EROS C - STARTSensing EROS B - START 1 RapidEye (5) - Dnepr TanDEM X - TBA
TerraSAR X - Dnepr WorldView - Delta 2
International Science Kompsat 2 - Rockot GOCE - Rockot CASSIOPE - Falcon 9 Cryosat 2 - TBARazakSAT - Falcon 1 SMOS - RockotAGILE - PSLV THEOS - RockotLAPAN-TUBSAT - PSLVEgyptsat - DneprSaudisat 3 - DneprSaudiComsat 3-7 - DneprAKS 1-2 - DneprCorot - Soyuz 2
Telecommunications ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBAGlobalstar (4) - Soyuz ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBAGlobalstar (4) - TBA
Other Genesis Pathfinder 1 - Dnepr Galaxy - Dnepr Sirius Radio 4 - ProtonGenesis Pathfinder 2 - Dnepr Guardian 1 - Dnepr SAR Lupe 5 - CosmosSAR Lupe 1 - Cosmos SAR Lupe 3 - Cosmos Cosmo-Skymed 3 - TBASAR Lupe 2 - Cosmos SAR Lupe 4 - Cosmos Cosmo-Skymed 4 - TBACosmo-Skymed 1 - TBA Cosmo-Skymed 2 - TBA
Total Payloads 22 29 18 15Total Launches 13 14 8 5
Note: Chart includes only those payloads announced as of April 28, 2006.It does not include secondary payloads that do not generate launch demand.
TBA – To Be Announced
7NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 7
Satellite and Launch Forecast 2006–2015
• More satellites and launches in near term • Most of the 2006 forecast increase is from International Science/Other • Visibility into the market fades four years ahead• Historical averaging used for International Scientific
• Number of medium-to-heavy launches increased by one launch per year over last year’s forecast (+2,268 kg to LEO for medium-heavy class)• Used for more remote sensing and international science/other missions
• Ratio of satellites to launch vehicles is 2.3 to 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL Avg
SatellitesBig LEO 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0.8Little LEO 5 6 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 3.5International Scientific/Other 19 8 12 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 97 9.7Commercial Remote Sensing 3 7 1 2 0 0 1 3 2 1 20 2.0Total Satellites 27 29 25 23 9 8 9 11 10 9 160 16.0
Launch DemandMedium-to-Heavy Vehicles 8 8 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 36 3.6Small Vehicles 5 6 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 33 3.3Total Launches 13 14 10 8 4 3 4 4 5 4 69 6.9
8NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 8
Near-Term Satellite Mass
• 14 more satellites under 200 kg compared to 2005 forecast• 5 more satellites over 1,200 kg compared to 2005 forecast
2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Percent of Total
< 200 kg(< 441 lbm)
10 11 12 12 45 54%
200-600 kg(441-1323 lbm)
3 9 1 1 14 17%
600-1200 kg(1323-2646 lbm)
5 5 1 2 13 15%
> 1200 kg(> 2646 lbm)
4 4 4 0 12 14%
Total 22 29 18 15 84 100%
9NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 9
Trends in NGSO Forecast• More “Other” satellites
• 5 SAR-Lupe radar satellites for the German Defense Ministry• 4 demonstration launches for Bigelow inflatable space habitat
• Several systems making progress to enter future forecasts • Globalstar
• Issued contract for design studies for next generation system in 2006• Two launches coming up (previously built spares)
• Iridium• Studying a new system this year• Replacement plan with launches of ~1 or 2 per year over period ~10
years• Could award satellite manufacturing contracts in 2008 or 2009
• Satellite Radio for Europe could be in NGSO• Question of when, not if
• Orbital commercial human space flight too early to forecast• America’s Space Prize• NASA COTS program for International Space Station resupply/return
• Demonstration missions may be uncrewed
10NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 10
Before Hurricane Katrina
Source: Iridium Satellite
Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region August 19, 2005
11NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 11
After Hurricane Katrina
Source:Iridium Satellite
Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region September 2, 2005
Iridium traffic increased 3,000 percent
Globalstar and Iridium activatedabout 20,000 satellite phonesinto region
12NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 12
Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lau
nch
es
2001 forecast
2002 forecast
2003 forecast
2004 forecast
2005 forecast
Actual
2006 Projections
13NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 24, 2006
Federal AviationAdministration 13
Available onthe FAA/ASTwebsitehttp://ast.faa.gov