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2012 Election 2012 Election Recap Recap
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Presidential Presidential Election Election
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And The Winner IsAnd The Winner Is……Barack Obama Mitt Romney
332 Electoral Votes 206 Electoral VotesPhoto Credit: New York Observer, The White House
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2012 Electoral Map2012 Electoral Map
Obama‐332Electoral Votes Romney‐206 Electoral VotesSource: Huffington Post
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Swing State BreakdownSwing State BreakdownBarack Obama Mitt Romney
• Colorado • Florida • Iowa• Nevada• Ohio • Pennsylvania • Virginia • Wisconsin
• North Carolina
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How They Voted: How They Voted: Popular VotePopular Vote
Barack Obama 62,085,892 (50.6%)
Mitt Romney 58,777,012 (47.9%)
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How They Voted: How They Voted: GenderGender
Group (Percentage of Electorate)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Male (47%) 45% 52%Female (53%) 55% 44%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted: How They Voted: RaceRace
Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Caucasian (72%) 39% 59%African American (13%)
93% 6%
Latino (10%) 71% 27%Asian American (3%)
72% 26%
Other (2%) 58% 38%Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted: How They Voted: Age GroupAge Group
Group (Percentage of Electorate)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
18‐24 (11%) 60% 36%30‐44 (37%) 52% 45%45‐64 (38%) 47% 51%65+ (16%) 44% 56%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted:How They Voted:Income Level Income Level
Group (Percentage of Electorate)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
<$50k (41%) 60% 38%$50K‐$100K (31%)
46% 52%
>$100K (28%) 44% 54%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted:How They Voted:RaceRace‐‐GenderGender
Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Caucasian Men (34%) 35% 62%Caucasian Women (38%)
42% 56%
African American Men (5%)
87% 11%
African American Women (8%)
96% 3%
Latino Men (5%) 65% 33%Latino Women (6%) 76% 23%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted: How They Voted: Marital StatusMarital Status
Group (Percentage of Electorate)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Married Men (29%)
38% 60%
Married Women (31%)
46% 53%
Unmarried Men (18%)
56% 40%
Unmarried Women (23%)
67% 31%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted: How They Voted: Party IDParty ID
Party (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Democrat (38%) 92% 7%Independent/Other (29%)
45% 50%
Republican (32%) 6% 93%
Source: CNN Politics
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How They Voted:How They Voted:Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators
Economic Conditions(Percentage of Electorate)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Good (21%) 90% 9%Not so good (45%) 55% 42%
Poor (31%) 12% 85%Getting better (39%) 88% 9%Getting worse (30%) 9% 90%Staying about the same (29%)
40% 57%
Source: CNN Politics
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Trait Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Cares about people like me
81% 18%
Is a strong leader
38% 61%
Shares my values 42% 55%
Has a vision for the future
45% 54%
Source: Washington Post
How They Voted:How They Voted:Personal TraitsPersonal Traits
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How They Voted: How They Voted: Affordable Care ActAffordable Care Act
Should ACA Be Repealed?
Answer
Yes 49%
No 44%
Source: CNN Politics
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2008 vs. 2012:2008 vs. 2012:Obama vs. Romney Obama vs. Romney
Obama‐332Electoral Votes Romney‐206 Electoral VotesSource: Huffington Post
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2008 vs. 2012: 2008 vs. 2012: Obama vs. McCain Obama vs. McCain
Source: PoliticalMaps.org
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How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 20122008 vs. 2012Barack Obama McCain/Romney
2008 69,456,897 (52.9%) 59,934,814 (45.7%)2012 62,085,892 (50.6%) 58,777,012 (47.9%)Change(% change from 2008)
‐7,371,005 (‐10.6%) ‐1,157,802 (‐1.9%)
Source: CNN Politics, New York Times
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How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 2012 2008 vs. 2012
Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama ‘08 Barack Obama ‘12
Caucasian 43% 39%
African American 95% 93%Latino 67% 71%Men 49% 45%Women 56% 55%Youth (18‐29) 66% 60%Independents 52% 45%
Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post
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How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 2012 2008 vs. 2012
Group (Percentage of Electorate) John McCain‘08 Mitt Romney‘12
Caucasian 55% 59%
African American 4% 6%Latino 31% 27%Men 48% 52%Women 43% 44%Youth (18‐29) 32% 37%Independents 44% 50%
Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post
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How Obama WonHow Obama Won• Developed and executed a vastly
superior Get-Out-The-Vote operation • Defined Romney early with very little
rebuttal from Romney campaign• Maintained high favorability with
women, minorities, and younger voters.
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GOP TakeawaysGOP Takeaways• Need dramatically revamped voter
identification, registration, and turnout operation.
• Reach parity on early voting. • Enlarge tent to increase GOP appeal
to more demographic groups o Women, Latino, African American, and Younger
Voters.
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Battle for Battle for Congress Congress
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SenateSenate
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The Senate: 112The Senate: 112thth CongressCongress• At the time of the
election, Democrats hold 53 seats (including 2 Independents). Republicans hold 47 seats and needed 4 to take the majority
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The Senate: 113The Senate: 113thth CongressCongressD+2D+2
• When the 113th
Congress convenes in January, the Senate will be comprised of 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents ) and 45 Republicans.
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Senate: Senate: Winners and LosersWinners and Losers
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Senate Election Summary Senate Election Summary Democratic Gains Republican Gains
Nebraska
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Senate Race:Senate Race:IndianaIndiana‐‐Democratic GainDemocratic Gain
• Incumbent (Defeated): Richard Lugar (R)• Winning Candidate: Joe Donnelly (D)• Losing Candidate: Richard Mourdock (R)
• 2008 Presidential: Obama 49.95%• 2012 Presidential: Romney 54.3%
Photo Credit: Indy Star
Rep. Joe Donnelly Treasurer Richard Mourdock
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Senate Race:Senate Race:MassachusettsMassachusetts‐‐Democratic GainDemocratic Gain
• Incumbent: Scott Brown (R)• Winning Candidate: Elizabeth Warren (D)• Losing Candidate: Scott Brown (R)
• 2008 Presidential: Obama 61.80%• 2012 Presidential: Obama 60.9%
Photo Credit: Politico
Sen. Scott Brown Professor Elizabeth Warren
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Senate Race:Senate Race:MaineMaine‐‐ Independent GainIndependent Gain
• Incumbent (Retiring ): Olympia Snowe (R)• Winning Candidate: Angus King (I)• Losing Candidate: Cynthia Dill (D)• Losing Candidate: Charles Summers (R)• (Likely to Caucus with Democrats)
• 2008Presidential: Obama 57.71%• 2012 Presidential: Obama 56.3%
Photo Credit: Kennebec Journal
ME Sec. of StateCharlie Summers
State Senator Cynthia Dill
Fmr. Gov. Angus King
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Senate Race:Senate Race:NebraskaNebraska‐‐ Republican GainRepublican Gain
• Incumbent (Retiring ): Ben Nelson (D) • Losing Candidate: Bob Kerrey (D)• Winning Candidate: Deb Fischer (R)•
• 2008 Presidential: McCain 53.1%• 2012 Presidential: Romney 60.5%
Photo Credit: KNEB Radio
Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey NE State Sen. Deb Fischer
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Lame Duck Wild Cards Lame Duck Wild Cards Defeated Retiring
• Scott Brown (R-MA) • Jon Kyl (R-AZ)• Joseph Lieberman (I-CT)• Daniel Akaka (D-HI)• Richard Lugar (R-IN)• Olympia Snowe (R-ME)• Ben Nelson (D-NE)• Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)• Kent Conrad (D-ND)• Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)• Jim Webb (D-VA)• Herb Kohl (D-WI
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Prospective Committee Prospective Committee Chairs for 113Chairs for 113thth CongressCongress
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*If John Kerry becomes Secretary of State, it sets up a domino effectthat could see several chairmen shuffle committees.
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Prospective Ranking Prospective Ranking Members for 113Members for 113thth CongressCongress
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House House
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The Senate: 112The Senate: 112thth CongressCongress• At the time of the
election, Republicans hold 240 seats. Democrats hold 190 seats and needed 28 to take the majority. There are five vacancies
• Vacancies to be filled on Election Day: CA-18, KY-4, MI-11, NJ-10, and WA-1
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Generic Ballot Generic Ballot Date Democrats Republicans Advantage Outcome
Nov 5, 2012 47.3% 47.5% Republicans +0.2
Republicans retain House,
Democrats retainSenate
Oct 31, 2010 41.3% 50.7% Republicans +9.4Republicans gain House, Democrats
retain Senate
Nov 2, 2008 47.6% 38.6% Democrats +9.0
Democrats expand
majorities in both
chambers
Nov 5, 2006 52.1% 40.6% Democrats +11.5Democrats
gain control of both
chambers
Nov 1, 2004 45.4% 45.4% Tie
Republicans retain control
of both chambers
Source: Real Clear Politics Average
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The House: 113The House: 113thth CongressCongressGains for DsGains for Ds
• When the 113th
Congress convenes in January, the House will be comprised of 194 Democrats and 233 Republicans. Though Republicans will retain their majority in the new Congress, there are 8 races that have yet to be called.
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Retiring or Defeated Retiring or Defeated MembersMembers
Defeated Retiring• 23 incumbents were
defeated on Election Day (10D, 13R.)*
• Some well known incumbents who were defeated include: Joe Baca (CA-D), Roscoe Bartlett (MD-R), Howard Berman (CA-D), Mary Bono Mack (CA-R), and Leonard Boswell (IA-D)
• 25 incumbents will retire after the 112th Congress (14D, 11R)
• Some well known incumbents who are retiring include: Barney Frank (MA-D), Jerry Lewis (CA-R), Ron Paul (TX-R), Lynn Woolsey (CA-D), Edolphus Towns (NY-D), and Dan Burton (IN-R)
*Several House races are yet to be called, leaving the potential for more defeated incumbents
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Prospective Committee Prospective Committee Chairs for 113Chairs for 113thth CongressCongress
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**Dan Lungren is locked in a tight race but may still yet be defeated
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Prospective Ranking Prospective Ranking Members for 113Members for 113thth CongressCongress
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The Lame Duck The Lame Duck
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Fiscal Cliff ItemsFiscal Cliff Items• Expiration of the Bush tax cuts• Expiration of the payroll tax cut• Expiration of unemployment insurance benefits• Expiration of the doc fix• Sequestration of $1.2 trillion in government
spending ($984 billion in reductions evenly split between defense and non-defense plus $216 billion in debt services savings)
• Likely need to increase the current debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion in late 2012 or early 2013
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3 Fiscal Cliff Scenarios3 Fiscal Cliff Scenarios1. Go off the the fiscal cliff: Unlikely result because of the
highly negative impact on the economy and on both political parties.
1. Comprehensive Grand Bargain on tax and entitlement reform: Unlikely result due to complexity of the negotiations and the brief lame duck period.
1. Short-term punt with pre-agreement on Grand Bargain: Likely result. Short-term punt that sets forth process, timetable, parameters, and possible consequence for failing to achieve grand bargain. Pre-agreement could include targets for revenue increases and entitlement cuts – without specifying nature of the revenue or the cuts.
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