Download - 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Syrian Opposition SurveyJune 1 – July 2, 2012
Democratic Models
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
R a t i n gA v er a g e
Government officials who are elected and those who are appointedshould both seek the opinions of citizens on new policies or programs
The government majority in parliament needs to respect the rights of the oppositionminority to criticize vigorously and without fear whatever the government does
2.15
5.72
6.12
6.34
6.42
6.59
6.63
6.67
6.81
6.81
6.83
6.84
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
The office of the president should have more power thanparliament
Non-believers should have equal rights in all aspects ofsociety
Parliament should have more power than the office of thepresident
Religious minorities should have equal rights in allaspects of society
Kurds should have equal rights in all aspects of society
If elected officials do not perform well, they should bevoted out of office by citizens
Judges should protect the rights of all groups to freespeech
Judges should stop or punish government officials forcorruption or fraud
Politicians should be elected in fair elections by secretballot
The president should have to obey the laws like
everyone else
Being democratic sometimes means different things to different people. In your own opinion, how
important are each of the following to democracy as you would like to see it develop in Syria?Please use a seven point scale where seven is very important and one means not important.
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
Thinking specifically of the place of religion in a new constitution and society,on a seven point scale where seven means agree strongly and one, disagree
strongly, how much do you agree with the following opinions?
R a t i n gA v er a g e
2.82
3.2
3.21
3.64
4.43
5.23
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be secular and make no
mention of Islam at all
The constitution should be secular and make nomention of Islam but school curriculum could
include elements of Islam
Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be secular and make no
mention of religion at all
The constitution should be secular and make nomention of religion but school curriculum could
include elements of different religions in Syria
Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be based on Islam
Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should mention religion respectfullybut otherwise be secular and not give priority to
any specific religious viewpoint over another
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
On a seven point scale, how much do you agree with the following opinions aboutdemocracy, where seven means agrees strongly, and one, disagree strongly?
Rating Average
6.78 6.7 6.67
5.77
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Judges should step in tofight corruption ifparliament or the
government fail to dotheir jobs properly
The police and othergovernment officials
should protect everyoneequally against
dishonesty irrespectiveof the background of the
victim or victimizer
That parliament shouldpass laws to protect
people againstdishonesty in business
The government and themilitary should not
normally operate anybusinesses themselves
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
R a t i n gA v er a g e
4.56
4.67
4.69
4.74
5.01
5.04
5.06
5.06
5.23
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
…is an apostate
…is an atheist
…is Alawite
…is younger than 35 years old
…is Christian
…is Kurdish
…is female
…is Sunni
…has different political beliefs
For a country to be democratic, on a seven point scale, where seven means agreestrongly and one, disagree strongly, how much do you agree that the law should
stop the government or the public from depriving someone of a job or place to liveor otherwise discriminate against a person because the person…
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
1.26
1.65
2.27
2.83
2.98
3.23
3.69
3.88
3.89
5.28
5.33
5.34
5.45
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Iran
Iraq
Serbia
Saudi Arabia
Romania
Egypt
South Africa
Tunisia
Qatar
Malaysia
Turkey
The U.S.
France
R a t i n gA v er a g e
Rank the following countries according to their desirability as a model for internal
Syrian politics where seven is the best possible model and one is the worstpossible model.
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Survey Methodology
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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• From June 1-July 2, 2012, the International Republican Institute (IRI) and Pechter Polls of
Princeton, NJ (P3) surveyed members of the Syrian opposition. P3 provided consultative guidance
on the survey’s implementation and analysis.
• Due to the logistical and political complexities of the project, several months of preparation were
required for both survey development and recruitment of opposition activists who had strong in-
country networks that had not been permeated by the regime.
• To minimize the possibility of participants’ arrest, or any other form of regime interference, IRI and
P3 employed a referral or “snowball” methodology – relying strictly on dissidents who were known
to IRI or P3. Thus the survey is not a randomized sample – as would be seen in a public opinion
poll – and is also skewed heavily toward men, which is partially a reflection of the opposition’s
composition.
• The project primarily relied upon five networks to initiate the survey’s circulation. From there,
activists within and outside of Syria from different ethnic, religious, political and socioeconomic
backgrounds were encouraged to circulate the survey amongst their sub-networks.
• The questionnaire was developed with the input of all network leaders, under the guidance of Dr.
David Pollock, former chief of Near East/South Asia and Africa Research for the U.S. Information
Agency.
• The survey was translated from English into Syrian colloquial Arabic and placed on a secure server
outside of Syria with extensive security protocols to mitigate against regime tampering.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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• Each of the five trusted network leaders was given an individual link to access the
questionnaire, allowing P3 to track progress and observe any suspicious results in real-time
throughout the survey’s administration.
• Respondents were assured that their responses to the online survey would be anonymous.
• A total of 1,168 interviews were completed by July 2, 2012, 85 percent of respondents were
male and 15 percent were female. Margin of error is not strictly applicable to this survey
because of the non-random selection of respondents.
• Of the sample of 1,168, approximately 315 of the respondents indicated they were inside Syria
when they completed the questionnaire, though there is discrepancy in the survey regarding
this figure as some respondents may have inconsistently reported the place where they live
versus the place where they were when taking the survey.
• Not all respondents answered every question. Therefore, the number of responses for any
question may not total 1,168.
• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Demographics
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Age
1%
18%
36%
25%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Younger than 18 18-25 26-35 36-45 Older than 45
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Gender
85%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Male Female
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Highest level of education achieved
6%
8%
20%
37%
9%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Some secondary education
Certificate in secondary education
Some university/vocational education
Certificate from university/vocationaleducation
Some post-graduate education
Certificate in post-graduate education
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Your normal profession or occupation
13%
5%
1%
8%
14%
18%
11%
12%
2%
4%
13%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Other
Unemployed
Retired
Manager
Doctor
Engineer
Merchant
Office worker
Housewife
Laborer
Student
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Your ethnic background
81%
14%
<1% 0% 1% <1%2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Arab Kurd Assyrian Armenian Turkmen Circassian Other
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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Your religious background
81%
<1% 0%3%
1%
11%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Sunni Alawite Shia(Not Alawite)
Christian Druze NotReligious
Other
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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The governorate you consider your home
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
6%
6%
9%
10%
10%
11%
11%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Quneitra Governorate
Al-Raqqah Governorate
Tartus Governorate
Al-Suwayda Governorate
Other
Deir ez-Zor Governorate
Latakia Governorate
Idlib Governorate
Daraa Governorate
Hama Governorate
Rif Dimashq Governorate
Aleppo Governorate
Homs Governorate
Al-Hasakah Governorate
Dimashq Governorate
7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012
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International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
The place where you now live
12%
<1%
<1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
4%
4%
7%
11%
23%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Other
Tunisia
Cyprus
Lebanon
Qatar
Egypt
Jordan
Britain
France
Turkey
Germany
UAE
United States
Saudi Arabia
Syria
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International Republican Institute (IRI) Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls
If you are now living in Syria, where are you living?
(315 of sample living in Syria)
<1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
3%
5%
5%
6%
7%
11%
12%
13%
32%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Quneitra Governorate
Al-Raqqah Governorate
Deir ez-Zor Governorate
Al-Suwayda Governorate
Tartus Governorate
Syria (General)
Latakia Governorate
Daraa Governorate
Hama Governorate
Homs Governorate
Idlib Governorate
Aleppo Governorate
Al-Hasakah Governorate
Rif Dimashq Governorate
Dimashq Governorate