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21st Century Energy Transition
Peter de MenocalColumbia University
pdemenocal
Chesapecten jeffersonius
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The ethical case for fossil fuels
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Emissions are decoupling from wealth
FORECAST
GDP
Emissions
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US (sort of) on target for Paris
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Wind and solar are cheap - getting cheaper
cost
cost
capacity
capacity
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Why? Technology “learning rates”
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Grid Parity
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Solar area needed to supply US electricity
US NREL
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Batteries getting cheaper, too
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Something we agree on
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Clean energy investment is growing
BNEF, 2018
$300 billion/year
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Jobs!
Clean energy jobs outpace fossil fuel: 3:1
3.3 million US jobs (2019)
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Electrifying transport
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Our deep carbon diet
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U.S. Clean Energy Example
1.15 overbuild Solar + WindPlus 12 hours storage
100% U.S. electricity demand
Shaner et al. (E&ES, 2018)
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• Time is not our friend • Radically increase renewables + storage
• Radically increase efficiency• Electrify everything• Negative emissions
Staying below +2.0°C
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storage
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Science, engineering, business, finance
Solutions for Sustainability
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“Negative emissions” may be needed
Direct air CO2 capture … …used to grow fruit & veggiesClimeworks
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Carbon Storage: Turn CO2 to mineral
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Plan D: Geoengineering
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• Time is not our friend • Radically increase renewables + storage
• Radically increase efficiency• Electrify everything• Negative emissions
Staying below +2°C
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climateandlife.columbia.edu