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5th Generation Fighter Operational Risk
Management
Systems-of-Systems Engineering Workshop
Maj Gen Matt “Zap” MolloyCommander, Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center
Albuquerque, NM
Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
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• AFOTEC Mission…Background
• 5th Gen Fighter Testing …a lens to the Future:
– What is a “5th Generation” Fighter?
– F-22 & F-35 Overview
• 5th Gen “Systems-of-Systems” & Managing Risk…it’s Complicated!
• Closing Thoughts & Discussion
Overview
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Test and Evaluate
New Capabilities in
Operationally
Realistic
Environments to
Inform Warfighters
and Influence
National Resource
Decisions
Mission
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Will it Work?(Developmental Test)
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Will it Work…In Combat?(Operational Test)
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Why Does AFOTEC Exist?
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– “OT&E. . .is done most effectively when
OT&E organizations report directly to the
Chief of Service, representing both the
developer and the user, but
organizationally independent of each.”
– “OT&E can and should contribute
significantly to decision-making at all
levels of the DoD.”
Why Does AFOTEC Exist?
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“Fly before buy”
–Initial Operational Test
and Evaluation
–Independent
Operational Test
Agency
–Production
Representative Data
Why Does AFOTEC Exist?
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Army
Navy
Marine
Operational
Test Agencies
Air Force Major Commands
Direct Reporting
Coordination
External Interactions
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Today’s AFOTEC
AFOTEC Headquarters
Operating Location
Kelly Field, TX
Detachment 1
Joint Strike Fighter
Program Office
Arlington, VA
Detachment 2
Detachment 4Operating Location
Vandenberg AFB, CA
Space and Missile
Systems Center
Los Angeles AFB, CA
Detachment 5
Operating Location
Everett, WA
Operating Location
Hurlburt Field, FL
Detachment 6
Operating Location
Nellis AFB, NV
Operating Location
Buckley AFB, CO
Operating Location
Marietta, GA
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TESTING 5TH GENERATION FIGHTERS
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What is a 5th Gen Aircraft?
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5th Gen Stealth….
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This is our Situation…“A2/AD”
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• Tactical Surprise Lost• Tracked, Locked and Shots Taken Upon• Mission Effectiveness Degraded and/or Lost
SOF
SOF
SOF
Legacy Aircraft in Anti-Access Environment …High Mission Risk
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• Stealth, Speed, Precision, Sensor Fusion, maneuverability
5th Gen operational schema:• Battlefield system-of-systems approach:• Integration/interdependencies:
• Space/ISR/Air Superiority/C2/Grnd/IAMD
SOF
SOF
SOF
Asymmetric Advantage of 5th Gen
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F-35 & F-22 as a System-of-Systems
Fusion and SOS
Integration
EWMore Capability at1/2 the Cost -Digital Modules,Production Processes, Apertures
DAS
Demonstrated
Significant Contributions
to Situation Awareness
Weapons
Finalized Carriage Concepts
Support All Weapons
CNI
Critical H/W Elements and
S/W Reuse Demonstrated
Mission Support
Finalized Carriage Concepts
Support All Weapons
EOTS
Low Profile Window
Optimized for Visibility &
Configuration Integration
Radar
Half the Weight,
Half the Cost Goal
Being Realized
ICP
COTS Technology Refresh Demonstrated
Common
Components
Economy of Scale Savings
CockpitProjection
Display Technology for
Enlarged Screen Area
and Availability
Open Architecture / Software
Standard Interfaces, Loose
Coupling, Object Oriented
Design, Commercial Tools
for Simpler Integration
Figure 2.1.x-x Display Portal concept w/ Virtual HUD Image
Figure 2.1.x-x Display Portal concept w/ Virtual HUD Image
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4th Gen Federated Displays
Radar Warning Receiver Threat Emitter Location / Type
Radar Display Radar targets
ID info
Navigation points
Weapons Attack Steering
Situation/JTIDS Display Wingman / flight Position info
Pre-planned threat locations
Link-16 Data Link targets & ID info
Countermeasures info
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Situation Display Position info
Simple line map
Navigation points
Pre-planned threat locations
Link-16 Data Link targets & ID info
Wingman/flight info
Radar search volume
Countermeasures info
Threat envelopes
Defensive Display Threat Emitter Location / Type
Countermeasures
Missile launch warning
Missile tracks
Threat envelopes
Attack Display ID Info
Weapons Attack Steering
“Fused tracks”
Side view of altitudes
Threat launch ranges
5th Gen Sensor FusionIt’s a mini “Systems-of-Systems”
(F-22 Cockpit)
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“System-of-Systems-of-Systems”
CV
LH/LP
Air Base
PHM
Datalink
SATCOM
Beyond Line of Sight
JFAC
Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)
Functionality
Variable Message Format
VMF
Ground Forces
94 Information Exchange Requirements to Ensure Interoperability
Across US and Coalition Forces
JFAC
E-2
F/A-18
AWACs
JSTARS
Link -16
Aviation & Air Defense Assets
F-16
V-22
Blue SAMs
AEGIS
• Link 4/ACLS, ICLS
• Link 16
• LAN/WAN/Internet
• UHF/VHF Voice/Data
• SATCOM 2 Way Voice/Data
Autonomic Logistics
Information System
“ALIS” Global Supply Chain Mngmt
Adversary
systems
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S-o-S Testing Challenges
• Where do you draw the test boundaries on a SoS
weapons system?– Fifth-generation platforms are redefining classical boundaries as
systems evolve from cooperative…to integrated…to interdependent
• How do you appropriately measure “suitability”,
“effectiveness” and “Mission Capability” in a System-
of-Systems weapons platform?– If the autonomic Logistics Information System is compromised can
the F-35 be Suitable and Mission Capable in the operational
environment?
• Open-air testing constraints– GPS jamming restrictions
– Full system employment constraints due to security/exploitation
concerns
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5th-Gen Testing Challenges
• Raptors & Lightnings have voracious appetites; they
chew through the adversary with volume & velocity…– Very difficult to generate the threat density and complexity to meet
5th-gen operational test requirements Advanced SAMs, advanced adversary aircraft, and advanced jamming
• Creating a complex, threat-dense environment is key
to an effective 5th-gen IOT&E and for accurately
quantifying operational capability and risk– Limits to what can be accomplished in the air
• How do we crack this nut???
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5th Gen Modeling & Sim
• Creating an advanced modeling & simulation environment– There are tough challenges posed by 5th gen M&S:
Creating the virtual battlespace and how the stealthy air vehicle dynamically
interacts within it
Accurately modeling advanced threats
Inserting blue forces into the virtual battlespace
• Creating this environment is key to an effective 5th gen
IOT&E and for accurately quantifying operational risk
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F-35 Developmental Timeline
• Concurrent development, production, test, & operations
• Risk-Return tradeoffs in schedule, cost, and performance– Allows for early availability and maintaining schedule
– Risk in performance…retrofit cost & substandard capability
• AFOTEC has to adapt from its classical IOT&E approach – We are inserting our support and our assessments rendered to the
Services & Acq community in unique ways
F-35
Development Milestone A Milestone B Milestone C IOC
USMC
IOC
USAF
Block Buy
Robust LRP
400+ jets fielded
IOT&E
IOC
USN/
GBR
FRP?
FOC?
Cyber Vulnerability Assessments
Red Team Penetration Analysis
Networks
ALIS
Air Vehicle
USS WASP
Operational Assessment
(“OA”) iso USMC
Mt Home Deployment
OA iso USAFWeapons Delivery Events
A/A & A/G
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CLOSING THOUGHTS
Managing Risk in 2020…..
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Reducing Risk in 2020
• Advancing and Maturing M&S– Testing’s center-of-gravity has tipped toward M&S (w/ open-air validation)
– Live, virtual, and Constructive (“LVC”) holds great promise and opportunity
for the testing community …for industry
– Trend toward Gov’t owned systems Data rights, integration with other synthetic weapons systems
Training & Mission rehearsal
Affordability
Need for both closed-loop & Distributed Mission Operations simulation
– We need to better educate or testers, developers, operators, & acq officers
for the virtual world ahead…
• Packard’s imperative is indeed sound:– “Fly b-4 you buy…”
– F-35 is giving us a new perspective & CONOP as to how we execute
this principle in a non-standard environment
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Reducing Risk in 2020
• We understand and quantify System Reliability Growth Curves when
fielding new weapons systems:
• This same methodology can be used for Operational Performance:– Manages technology risks assoc w/ 5th gen
Time
Reliability
System Reliability
Time
Capability
Operational
Performance
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Reducing Risk in 2020
• 2020’s testing terrain is different– S-o-S interdependencies; M&S; Cyber…
• Must develop the “next generation” of testers…– Ready to meet the challenges of 2020, 2030, and beyond with test-
ready experienced teams Recruit, train, mentor & retain key personnel
Develop cyber OT skills; develop live virtual constructive & VVA skills
On the horizon: Long Range Strike Bomber, Long Range Stand Off
weapon, Ground-Based Strategic Deterrence system
Over the horizon: Directed energy weapons? Hypersonic systems?
• AFOTEC’s enduring Trump Card:– Our Airmen… Integrity, Service, Excellence
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Questions & Comments
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Excellence
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Detachment 1 – F-35
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Back up material
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Cyber testing 5th Gen
• Complex task to define “cyber boundaries”
– Must take a system-of-systems approach
• Cyber warriors are “HD/LD” assets
– Can’t grow them fast enough to meet demand signal
• AFOTEC is reaching out for assistance:
– To the Total Force for assistance
Mutual benefit to share cybersecurity
knowledge
NM Guard brings wisdom & leading-edge practices from
industry
Assist AFOTEC with forecasted capacity shortfall
– To AFRL--bringing a “STEM” analytical approach to security
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International Participation in IOT&E…Managing Risk
• 4 partner nations participating in F-35 IOT&E…unprecedented– US, UK, Dutch, Australia
• The Advantages:– Partner buy in ($$, strengthens the relationship)
– Program transparency
– Informs partner nation resource decision-making
• The Challenges:– Information disclosure
Unprecedented access to sensitive information
– Expectation management
Security/
DisclosurePartnering
Risk Management
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JSF Autonomic Logistics System
Support System
Sustaining Engineering
24/7 Help Desk
Electronic Joint-Service Tech Data
Intelligent Maintenance Management
Global Supply Chain Insight
Support Equipment Management
Training System
Integrated Training
Embedded Pilot Training
On Demand Maintenance Training
Air Vehicle Software Reuse
Highly Supportable Aircraft
Smart / Reliable Design
Prognostics and Health Management
Remove and Replace (R/R) Maintenance
On Condition Maintenance
Autonomic Logistics Information System
Distributed Information System
Enterprise Resource Solution
Secure
Scalable
Deployable
Cyber-enabled Jet….
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F-22
Development Milestone A Milestone B
IOT&E
FRPMilestone C IOC FOC
• F-22 followed a more classical acquisition timeline
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• Mentoring New Mexico High School and
College Students
• Meals-on-Wheels and Habitat for Humanity
• Inmate Recovery and Prison Ministries
• Church Leaders, Music Coordinators,
Ushers, Chaplain Services
• Girl Scouts, Boy Scouts and 4-H
Instructors
• Children’s sports coach volunteers
• Leadership for Albuquerque Tuskegee
Airmen Chapter
• New Mexico Animal Humane Society
• Big Brothers / Big Sisters Programs
• New Mexico Boys and Girls Clubs
• New Mexico Roadrunner Food Bank
• Various High School Parent Teacher
Organization volunteers
• Kirtland Against Drunk Driving Program
AFOTEC in the Community
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Questions?
CSAF Artwork; A C-17 from Charleston AFB flying medical and food relief to
the earthquake victims of Haiti