Download - A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici
![Page 1: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
A Global Challenge
Antonio NavarraINGV
Centro EuroMediterraneoper i cambiamenti climatici
![Page 2: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Atmosphere
Oceans
The Climate System
Biosphere
Soil MoistureRun-off
PrecipitationEvaporation
Sea Ice
![Page 3: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
A scientific consideration of climate (I)
Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science
How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate ?
![Page 4: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
A scientific consideration of climate (II)
We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate.
We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.
The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods.
![Page 5: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
The next generation of numerical models will be like new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.
![Page 6: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
![Page 7: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Grids for Earth
Sort of crowded at the pole
![Page 8: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
T42 IPCC standard resolution (~ 300Km)
T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)
![Page 9: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)
Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)
![Page 10: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Scenarios CO2
CH4
N2O
![Page 11: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)
Surface Temperature Differences JAS
![Page 12: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)
Precipitation Differences JAS
![Page 13: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Projected sea level change is not globally uniform
Sea level change due to ocean density and circulation change during 21st century (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999) under A1B, average of 16 AOGCMs, shown relative to global mean. Spatial variation is about 25% of global mean.
![Page 14: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
iona
le d
i Geo
fisi
ca e
Vul
cano
logi
a -
Ital
y
Numerical Simulations
Agricultural Impacts:Forests
Agricultural Impacts:Crops
Impacts:Energy and Economy
Impacts:Health
Impacts:Mediterranean Sea
Numerical Methods Software Development
Impacts:The Coastal Zone
The Structure of the CMCC
Climate Research
![Page 15: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
CIRCEClimate Change and Impact ResearCh:
the Mediterranean Environment
An FP6 Project of the European Union
Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana
![Page 16: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle.
The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economicsystem. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and theirimpacts will be assessed.
The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.
![Page 17: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
CIRCE Strategy
Climate Dynamics
Impacts
SocialDynamics Case
Studies
Policy
![Page 18: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
What can we do ?
Mitigation: remove the causes of climate change,
i.e. emissions
Adaptation: prepare for the coming climate change
![Page 19: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Mitigazione e Adattamento,Entrambi necessari,Entrambi limitati
Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento
![Page 21: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
Elements for Post-Kyoto RegimeEffective – Capable of realizing significant
emission reduction
Empowering – Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path
Fair – Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies
Shared – A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies
![Page 22: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
Coalition Building
![Page 23: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
General Social Survey USA (I)
• 86% - Satisfied of their job
• 76% - Satisfied of their income
• 62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years
• 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives
![Page 24: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
General Social Survey USA (II)
• 25% - Think the country is not “on the right track”
• 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing
• 60% - Expect next generation will be worst off
![Page 25: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
”Happiness Gap”
US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively
There is a private-public happiness gap
![Page 26: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Policy ?
In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual.
Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands ?
![Page 27: A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062800/56814036550346895dab9d7e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
IN
GV
- I
stit
uto
Naz
ion
ale
di G
eofi
sica
e V
ulc
anol
ogia
- I
taly
Optimists
But Concerned