![Page 1: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A least-cost approach to reduce CO2-emissions in passenger car transport:
This time economics will kill the electric car
Amela AjanovicEnergy Economics Group
Vienna University of Technology
30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Washington, 2011
![Page 2: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Content
1. Introduction
2. Method of approach
3. Results- Which measures contribute to CO2 reduction and to
which costs?
4. Conclusions
![Page 3: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. Introduction
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EU-27
Energy sector40%
Industry16%
Service4%
Residential11%
Others4%
Railways0%
Ships1%
Other0%
Civic Aviation1%
Road transport23%
Transport25%
TOTAL ENERGY 2007: 4000 Mio tons CO2_equ
![Page 4: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
2. Methods
Impact factors on CO2 emissions in the car passenger transport sector
On-road power-specific fuel efficiency
Test-cycle fuel intensity
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions coefficient
=
xEnergy
Total vkmdriven
Driving coefficientbehaviour
=
x
=
x
lower coefficient for biofuels or electricity
to be improved by automobile manufacture
to be reduced byeco-driving
to be influenced byfuel taxes or fuel intensity improvements
x
x Power (capacity)of car
to be reduced e.g. by kW-specific registration tax
Standards Education Fuel tax Registration taxSubsidies,
quotas
Policy instruments
On-road power-specific fuel efficiency
Test-cycle fuel intensity
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions coefficient
=
xEnergy
Total vkmdriven
Driving coefficientbehaviour
=
x
=
x
lower coefficient for biofuels or electricity
to be improved by automobile manufacture
to be reduced byeco-driving
to be influenced byfuel taxes or fuel intensity improvements
x
x Power (capacity)of car
to be reduced e.g. by kW-specific registration tax
On-road power-specific fuel efficiency
Test-cycle fuel intensity
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions coefficient
=
xEnergy
Total vkmdriven
Driving coefficientbehaviour
=
x
=
x
lower coefficient for biofuels or electricity
to be improved by automobile manufacture
to be reduced byeco-driving
to be influenced byfuel taxes or fuel intensity improvements
x
x Power (capacity)of car
to be reduced e.g. by kW-specific registration tax
Standards Education Fuel tax Registration taxSubsidies,
quotas
Policy instruments
![Page 5: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
2. Methods
So we can reduce CO2 emissions by influencing :
vkm (by increasing the price by taxes) or
FI (by introducing various measures for technical efficiency improvement) or
fCO2 (by using fuels with less carbon, e.g. biofuels or electricity).
![Page 6: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2. Methods
The method of approach is finally based on calculation of total costs for society and resulting CO2 reductions:
For taxes these costs are the welfare losses for society; For the technologies we consider the additional investment costs of the technology and the energy cost reduction respectively the increased producer surplus if the technology is produced in the region; For alternative fuels we have to consider the additional production costs minus the increased producer surplus if the fuel is produced in the region.
![Page 7: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
3. Results
Policy measures implemented in transport sector could be put in three main categories:
Switch from fossil fuels to alternative fuels, in the first line to biofuels;
Improve efficiency of cars including switch to alternative and more efficient powertrains;
Reduce energy consumption with taxes and standards.
![Page 8: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
3. Results
Switch
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 20 40 60 80 100gCO2equ/MJ
EU
R/G
JCOSTS & CO2 EMISSIONS OF BIOFUELS 2010 VS 2020
2010 --> 2020
BE-1
BD-1
BE-2
CNG
Diesel
BM
Gasoline
BD-2
Fossil fuels vs. biofuels production costs (exclusive taxes) and WTW CO2 emissions,2010 and 2020
![Page 9: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
3. Results
Improve
Comparison of specific CO2 emissions and driving costs of conventional and hybrid
gasoline and diesel vehicles with pure BEV and FCV
CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 50 100 150 200gCO2/km
EU
R/k
m
BEV (electr. RES Mix)
BEV (electr. New NG)
BEV (electr. UCTE-Mix)
FCV (H2 NG)FCV (H2 RES Mix)
Gasol.-Hybrid-ICE
Diesel-Hybrid-ICE
Gasol.-ICE
Diesel-ICE
![Page 10: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
3. Results
Reduce
140 gCO2/km140 gCO2/km
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
ATBEBGCYCZDKEEFI
FRDEGRHUIRIT
LVLTLUMTNLPLPTROSKSI
ESSEUK
Price excl. VAT & Excise tax Excise tax VAT
Price structure of gasoline in EU-27 (data source: EEP, 2011 - effective March 2, 2011)
Evolution of CO2 emissions from new passenger cars by manufacturer associations (EC, 2010)
![Page 11: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
3. Results
Which measures contribute to CO2 reduction and to which costs?
Least-cost curve for CO2 reduction in passenger car transport in the EU-15 in 2010
LEAST-COST CURVE FOR CO2 REDUCTION
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
0 20 40 60 80 100CO2 reduction (Mill tons CO2)
EU
R/t
on
CO
2
TAX 1: Fuel tax AF-1: BD-1 AF-2: BE-1
AF 3: BM ETA-4: Conv. ICE impr. TAX 2: Registr. Tax
ETA-1: Start-Stop auto ETA-3: Power split ETA-2: Power assistant
![Page 12: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
4. Conclusions
• The major conclusion of this analysis is that technological solutions alone are a very expensive strategy for reducing CO2 emissions.
• Regarding BEV and fuel cell cars up to 2020 no CO2 savings at reasonable costs for society will be achieved.
![Page 13: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
4. Conclusions
• In the long-term only a very broad portfolio of policy instruments (taxes, standards, quotas, emissions free-zones…) and new technologies (BEV, FCV …) can reduce energy consumption and straightforward CO2 emissions significantly.
• It is currently of urgent importance that there is a clear focus on implementing the two instruments with highest short-term effects: standards and taxes.
![Page 14: A least-cost approach to reduce CO 2 - emissions in passenger car transport: This time economics will kill the electric car Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022072014/56649eb05503460f94bb58e2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Thank you!