![Page 1: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A NEW HAMPSHIRE GROUND-LEVEL OZONE
POLLUTION FORECASTING TOOL USING
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIANortheast Regional Operational WorkshopPresenter: Laura Landry, Plymouth State University
2008 November 5
Courtesy: Zach Allen
![Page 2: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction
New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES) has forecasted ozone pollution for over 15 years Ozone exposure causes a wide range of
respiratory problems (AIRNow 2008)
Primarily concerned with Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone Based on daily maximum 8-hour average
ozone concentration
![Page 3: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
Since March 2008, a new NAAQS for ozone has been implemented, lowered from 84ppb to 75ppb Previously used forecasting methods have become
less accurate
Motivation: To develop a new forecasting guide for predicting the new standard of 75ppb
Results will help answer questions of: How much variation in meteorological criteria will
there be between air monitoring sites? How will criteria compare when using two different
time periods of data?
![Page 4: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Introduction
Meteorological conditions behind ozone development Sunny skies High surface temperatures Calm to light winds
Transport of pollution New Hampshire lies downwind of major
pollution sources
![Page 5: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Methodology
Selection of air quality monitoring sites Sites were selected base on:
1. Locations where most exceedance days occurMore problematic to forecastLarger sample size on which to base
the analysis
2. Locations not adjacent to each other
![Page 6: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methodology
Southern sites report most of exceedance days
Site elevations range from 0 to 150m Miller State Park is an
exception at about 700m
New Hampshire
![Page 7: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Methodology
Previous research conducted by Jeffs (2007), a Master’s thesis at Plymouth State University Created an ozone forecasting guide for 65ppb Utilized a dataset from 2002-2005
This study followed similar methodology EPA suggests an air quality climatology as
about 4 years (EPA 1999) Used two datasets of June-August
2004-2007 2002-2007
![Page 8: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Methodology
Ozone data Daily maximum 8-hour average ozone
concentration Source: NHDES
Meteorological data Surface observations from KCON, KEEN,
KASH, KPSM, and Miller State Park Source: National Weather Service, Plymouth
State University, NHDES Radiosonde data from KGYX
Source: Plymouth State University
![Page 9: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Methodology
Analysis was done using the Criteria Method EPA-recommended method for creating air
quality forecast guides (EPA 1999)
Subjective analysis that focuses on exceedance days
Determines threshold values
![Page 10: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Methodology
![Page 11: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Methodology
Meteorological parameters: Daily maximum surface temperature 850hPa temperature (12 UTC) Surface wind speed and direction (12 & 18
UTC) Cloud cover (12 & 18 UTC)
Times were chosen based on: 12 UTC: morning conditions prior to a
potential high ozone event 18 UTC: afternoon conditions when ozone
typically reaches its daily maximum value
![Page 12: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
RESULTS
![Page 13: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Results
Comparing criteria of air monitoring site to site… Daily observations
Maximum surface temperature: ≥ 83˚F 12 UTC observations
850hPa temperature: ≥ 12˚C Surface wind speed: ≤ 5 knots Surface wind direction: Southwesterly to
southerly Cloud cover: ≤ FEW
![Page 14: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Results
Comparing criteria of air monitoring site to site… 18 UTC observations
Surface wind speed: ≤10 knotsSurface wind direction: Westerly to
southwesterlyCloud cover: ≤ SCT
Results from Miller State Park varied most from all other sites
![Page 15: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Site to Site Comparison
2004-2007Variable Thresho
ldN Range
Max Surface Temperature ≥ 80°F 14 73-96°F
12 UTC OBSERVATIONS
850hPa Temperature ≥ 11.4°C 18 9.4-19.6°C
Wind Speed ≤ 14 kts 13 3-14 kts
Wind Direction
200-260° 15 87-295°
Cloud Cover - - -
18 UTC OBSERVATIONS
Wind Speed ≤ 14 kts 13 5-19 kts
Wind Direction
200-250° 14 117-287°
Cloud Cover - - -
Miller State Park Nashua
2004-2007Variable Thresh
oldN Range
Max Surface Temperature ≥ 86 °F 17 77-95°F
12 UTC OBSERVATIONS
850hPa Temperature ≥ 12 °C 17
9.4-19.8°C
Wind Speed ≤ 5 kts 15 0-6 kts
Wind Direction
180-290° 3 180-290°
Cloud Cover ≤ SCT 14CLR-BKN
18 UTC OBSERVATIONS
Wind Speed ≤ 10 kts 16 1-10 kts
Wind Direction
200-300° 13 110-300°
Cloud Cover ≤ SCT 15CLR-BKN
![Page 16: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Results
Comparing criteria among different time periods of data among the same air monitoring site…
![Page 17: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Dataset Comparison
2002-2007 2004-2007Variable Thresho
ldN Range Variable Thresh
oldN Range
Max Surface Temperature ≥ 82°F 19 81-97°F
Max Surface Temperature ≥ 82°F 10 81-95°F
12 UTC OBSERVATIONS 12 UTC OBSERVATIONS
850hPa Temperature ≥ 12.4°C 19
12.4-20.8°C
850hPa Temperature ≥ 12.4°C 10
12.4-19.8°C
Wind Speed ≤ 7 kts 19 1-8 kts Wind Speed ≤ 5 kts 10 1-8 kts
Wind Direction
190-290° 16 150-290°Wind
Direction190-270° 8 150-270°
Cloud Cover ≤ SCT 17 CLR-BKN Cloud Cover ≤ FEW 10CLR-BKN
18 UTC OBSERVATIONS 18 UTC OBSERVATIONS
Wind Speed ≤ 10 kts 19 3-10 kts Wind Speed ≤ 8 kts 10 3-9 kts
Wind Direction
180-240° 17 120-260°Wind
Direction180-260° 9 120-260°
Cloud Cover ≤ BKN 17 CLR-OVC Cloud Cover ≤ SCT 10FEW-OVC
Portsmouth
![Page 18: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Summary
This study developed an ozone forecasting guide for the NHDES
The criteria method from the EPA Subjectively analyzed
meteorological threshold values Threshold values indicate a high
probability of an exceedance day
![Page 19: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conclusions
Air monitoring site to site comparison:
Similar threshold values among sites Miller State Park appeared to be an
outlier Could be due to high elevation Transport may be more of an issue
Dataset to dataset comparison: No significant variation in threshold
values In this study, the length of the dataset
did not have a large effect on results
![Page 20: A N EW H AMPSHIRE G ROUND -L EVEL O ZONE P OLLUTION F ORECASTING T OOL U SING M ETEOROLOGICAL C RITERIA Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Presenter:](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062309/5697bfe31a28abf838cb4d41/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Questions?
References:
AIRNow, accessed 2008: Ozone and Your Health. [http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action= static.ozone2]
EPA, 1999: Guideline for Developing an Ozone Forecasting Program. EPA: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Jeffs, Kim, 2007: Development of Meteorological Criteria for Forecasting Air Quality in New Hampshire. Plymouth State University: Master of Science Thesis Project.