A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database
Chen Ying ([email protected])Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD),
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006
OutlineOverview of Emissions Scenarios Database
Analysis on Reference Scenarios
Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios
Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged
I. Overview of Emission Scenarios Database
StructureSources: 256Scenarios: 734Regions:
Variables:
Results: 1990-2100,
every 10 years
93668 records in total
China in the Countries Groupings
ChinaCPA= China+HK and other 5 countriesASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19),
34 countries and regions
China ASIAP
CPA
China is 90%-95% of CPA, 50%-60% of
ASIAP
Models related to China 13 models developed since 1998
China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99,
CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98
ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001
AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN
Categories of models Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN
Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and MESSAGE
Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM
Scenarios developed: 85 reference + 111 policy
II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios
85 reference scenarios related to ChinaChina: 3 developed with 3 models
CPA: 5 developed with 2 models
ASIAP: 40 of SRES standardized and 37 of
pSRES without standardization
0. 0
0. 5
1. 0
1. 5
2. 0
2. 5
3. 0
3. 5
4. 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2
emis
sion
s (G
TC/y
r)
AI M/ EMF16 RI CE99 SGM99
Reference Scenarios for China
Reference Scenarios for CPA and China/0.95
0. 0
1. 0
2. 0
3. 0
4. 0
5. 0
6. 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2
emis
sion
s (G
TC/y
r)
DNE21/ 98 I I ASA/ WEC98-A1 I I ASA/ WEC98-A2I I ASA/ WEC98-A3 I I ASA/ WEC98-B SGM99RI CE99 AI M/ EMF16
A2-5.2
A3-0.6
SGM99
RICE99& AIM/EMF16
A1
B
Reference Scenarios for ASIAP
(6 Markers from SRES)
0. 0
2. 0
4. 0
6. 0
8. 0
10. 0
12. 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2
Emis
sion
s (G
TC/y
r)
A1 A2 B1 A1T A1FI B2
A2-10.74
B1-0.93
CPA/0.5
What makes the differences?
CPAIIASA/WEC98 DNE21/98
1990 A1 A2 A3 B 1990 Ref
Pop 1242 -202020502100
171419842099
171419842099
171419842099
171419842099
-
GDP 474 -202020502100
38521387144593
38521387144593
38521387144593
20386660
26933-
PE 40 23
202020502100
106188301
106188304
105181297
88149249
56102175
Coal 23 17
202020502100
625428
69136212
60517
5070
146
325060
Assumptions of Driving Forces for
6 SRES Markers1990 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
World population 5.3
202020502100
7.68.77.1
7.58.77.1
7.68.77.0
8.211.315.1
7.68.77.0
7.69.3
10.4
World GDP
202020502100
53164525
56181529
57187550
4182
243
53136328
51110235
Per capita income ratio (Annex1 to
Non-annex 1)16.1
202020502100
7.52.81.5
6.42.81.6
6.22.81.6
9.46.64.2
8.43.61.8
7.74.03.0
Which Gives the Right Prediction?
Possible sources for actual data
Resources GHGs Time
WDI 2004(WB)most countries till
2000
CAIT(WRI), launched in 2003
CO2 from energy, industrial production, land use changes, (some
available but highly uncertain)Non-CO2
1960-2000,CO2 till 2002
IEA StatisticsCO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion 1971-2001
EIA (US), updated on July 11, 2005
CO2 from energy activities 1980-2003
Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data (CPA
and China/0.95)
0
0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 8
1
1. 2
1. 4
1. 6
1. 8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
DNE21/ 98 I I ASA/ WEC98- A1 I I ASA/ WEC98- A2I I ASA/ WEC98- A3 I I ASA/ WEC98- B act ual dat aAI M/ EMF16 SGM99
Actual data
Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data of
ASIAP
0. 0
0. 5
1. 0
1. 5
2. 0
2. 5
3. 0
3. 5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
A1FI A1T actual data A2 B1 B2 A1B
Standardization1990-2000
Actual data
Modeling Results Tends to Overestimate Growth of
Developing Countries
1990 Actual data 2000 Actual data
World CO2 emissions 7.10 - 7.79 -
World CO2 from energy 5.99 5.84 6.90 6.5
ASIAP 1.15 1.06 1.78 1.58
OECD90 2.83 2.85 3.20 3.20
REF 1.30 1.40 0.91 1.00
ALM 0.72 0.53 1.01 0.74
A Explanation from Driving Forces
ASIAPCO2
1999CO2
2000
GDP1990= 10
0
Population1990= 100
Energy consumption
1990= 100
Actual data 1.06 1.58 191 116 142
AIM/SRES- A1B,
1.15 1.78
180 117 125
ASF/SRES- A2 159 118 155
IMAGE/SRES-B1 194 117 135
MESSAGE/SRES-A1T 180 117 142
MESSAGE/SRES-B2 233 116 139
MiniCAM/SRES- A1FI 218 116 173
III. Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios
111 policy scenarios related to China
103 with stabilization targets from 450-750ppm
China(14): RICE99 and SGM99
CPA( 1): DNE21/98
ASIAP( 88): 72 of pSRES and 16 of pSRES2001 Some scenarios compare different emissions pathways
(WRE ,WGI or MID) with same stabilization targets, or The impacts of ET (no trade, partial trade or trade)
Insights to Stabilization Scenarios
Policy scenarios with different stabilization targets base on same reference
Policy scenarios based on different reference is pursuit of same stabilization targets
Different emissions pathways and the impact of trade conditions
Burden-sharing scheme Other possible information on mitigation costs
More Reductions Required to Achieve Lower Targets
0. 0
1. 0
2. 0
3. 0
4. 0
5. 0
6. 0
7. 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
A1B A1B-450 A1B-550 A1B-650
Ref
650
550
450
More Reductions Required based on Higher Reference
0. 00
1. 00
2. 00
3. 00
4. 00
5. 00
6. 00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
RI CE99- ref RI CE99-550DNE21/ 98- ref DNE21/ 98-550
Ref-high
Ref-low
sta-550
Burden-sharing Scheme550ppm, 2050 B2 A1B A1FI
Total reductions required in the world
11.2-9.9=1.3 16.4-10.2=6.2 23.5-10.7=12.8
ASIAP 4.1-3.8=0.3 5.9-3.8=2.1 10.1-3.9=6.2
EFSU 0.2 0.47 1.62
OECD 0.2 1.48 2.31
ROW 0.5 2.15 2.63
ASIAP’s share in the world 23% 34% 49%
ASIAP’s reduction rate 7.3% 36% 61%
Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for Developing
Countries Analysis on the driving forces
550, 2050,
pSRESGDP loss PE decrease
Reduction of Coal use
Coal/PE
B2 -0.4% -0.4% - 18
A1B -1.7% -22.6% -51.5% 15
A1FI -2.9% -31% -87% 8
IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged
Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be fluctuated with high uncertainty.
The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies in developing countries have clear implications on climate change mitigation.
The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need to be clarified.
The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and basic needs.