Download - A UK Energy Systems Perspective
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A UK Energy Systems Perspective
Jim Watson, UKERC Research Director
APGTF Annual Workshop, London, 12-13 March 2014
Click to add title Overview
The UK’s energy policy goals: a shifting agenda
Low carbon transitions for the power sector
The role of fossil fuels and CCS
Relative costs & cost trajectories
Flexibility and electricity system security
Public values & energy system change
The UK’s energy policy goals
‘Security of supply, affordability,
and playing our part in combating
climate change. And that for me is
the order’
Michael Fallon, 2nd Dec 2013
Reducing carbon emissions
Source: Committee on Climate
Change
Important for many reasons:
• High energy prices since mid 2000s
• Geopolitics and conflicts (e.g. Iraq war; Russia-Ukraine disputes)
• Impacts of extreme weather events (e.g. power blackouts; hurricane Katrina)
• Ageing and/or inadequate infrastructure (power plants; gas storage capacity)
Debates often focus on international risks, but many risks closer to home
Domestic energy sources are not always more secure than imports
Maintaining energy security
-200.0
-100.0
0.0
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TW
h
Exports Pipeline Imports LNG Imports Net Imports
Source: DECC
Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader Maintaining energy security:
from gas exporter to importer
0
100
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400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ind
ex (
20
00
= 1
00
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Gas Electricity
Gas prices have trebled since 2000
Electricity prices have doubled since 2000
Affordability: Domestic gas & electricity prices Affordability for consumers
Click to add title Affordability and Fuel Poverty
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change
Trade-offs between policy goals
The UK’s low carbon transition: so far, so good?
0
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Em
issio
ns:
mt
CO
2 (
eq
uiv
)
CO2 emissions Other GHGs Total GHGs
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change
CO2 emissions are down 19% since 1990
Click to add title The UK’s low carbon transition
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
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300,000
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400,0001
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0
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Ele
ctri
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lied
(G
Wh
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Conventional thermal, incl biomass CCGTs Nuclear Other renewables
Source: DECC Statistics
The UK’s low carbon transition: CCC projection for 2020
Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013)
12GW of fossil and 3.5GW of nuclear plant retires
EU renewables target: 30-35% of electricity by 2020
Energy efficiency; two CCS demos; 5GW unabated gas
The UK’s low carbon transition CCC scenarios for 50g/kWh in 2030
Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013)
3. Innovation systems & development Significant cost uncertainties Unclear which technologies will ‘win’
Source: UKERC
3. Innovation systems & development Significant cost uncertainties Unclear which technologies will ‘win’
Source: UKERC
Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties
Will costs fall in future?
Source: CCS Cost Reduction Task Force
Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties Costs go up as well as down
FGD capital costs in the USA (1997$)
0
50
100
150
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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$/kW
Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties
The case of offshore wind
Source: The Crown Estate (May 2012)
Drivers of increase include: Commodity prices; exchange rates; deeper water, supply chain limitations; reliability problems
Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties
Where are we for CCS?
Here?
Here?
Or here?
Click to add title Secure, low carbon electricity?
The CCC say that all of their electricity scenarios are ‘compatible with’ maintaining security
15% of electricity demand is flexible, at least within day (Sustainability First estimate technical potential is 10-18GW or one third of load)
Much more interconnection: 10GW
A bit more pumped storage (up 0.6GW to 3.3GW)
Significant increase in gas-fired capacity
Also assume that wind can make a contribution to system security at some times of day / year
Secure, low carbon electricity?
‘[A] substantial investment in gas
generation and gas import
infrastructure here in the UK is
completely consistent with Britain’s
plans to cut carbon emissions, set
out in our Carbon Plan. In electricity
generation alone, I expect new gas
capacity of around 20GW to be built
between now and 2030’
Ed Davey, 8th October 2012
Secure, low carbon electricity?
‘An enterprise strategy means
investing in renewable energy, and
opening up the newly discovered
shale gas reserves beneath our land.
We are today consulting on a
generous new tax regime for shale so
that Britain is not left behind as gas
prices tumble on the other side of the
Atlantic.’
George Osborne, 8th October 2012
(Simultaneously!)
Secure, low carbon electricity? Many (government) views on role of gas
NB: Gas capacity is not fitted with CCS
Source: DECC Gas Strategy
100g / kWh George: 200g / kWh Ed: 50g / kWh
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Po
we
r fr
om
gas
(%
)
37GW 49GW 31GW
Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader Secure, low carbon electricity?
More pressing issues in the short-term
Source: Ofgem
(June 2013)
Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader
Source:
UKERC
Public attitudes and values
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Thanks
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk https://twitter.com/watsonjim2
