Download - Abel Presentation 05.21.2014
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Regional Economic Press Briefing
May 21, 2014
The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily representthose of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
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Overview
Recent Economic Performance New York City remains on strong growth trajectory, some weaknessin Northern NJ to start the year, and signs of firming in Puerto Rico
Status of the Jobs Recovery A growing number of places in the region have gained back the
jobs lost during the Great Recession
Types of Jobs Lost and Gained Middle-skill jobs were hardest hit during the recession and have
not come back
During the recovery, job growth has been concentrated at the
higher and lower ends of the skills distribution
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 2
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Recent EconomicPerformance
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Regional Economic ActivityIndexes of Coincident Economic Indicators
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico.Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. 4
80
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New YorkState
New Jersey
New York
City
Puerto Rico
Apr
Mar
Last BriefingShading indicates NBER recession.
Index (December 2007 = 100)
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Recent Job GrowthIndex of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com. 5
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14
Upstate NY
NorthernNew Jersey
DownstateNY
Puerto Rico
UnitedStates
Apr
Last Briefing
Index (U.S. Employment Trough Feb 2010 = 100)
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Sectors Driving Regional Job GrowthChange in Employment over Past Year (as of Apri l 2014)
6Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.
-16,000
-12,000
-8,000
-4,000
0
4,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Downstate NY
Northern NJ
Upstate NY
Puerto Rico
Health & Education Services
Professional &Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
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Status of theJobs Recovery
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.Note: Putnam and Bergen are the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester
and Bergen-Hudson-Passaic Special BLS Areas.
Recovered All Lost Jobs
Recovered 3/4 of Lost Jobs
Recovered Less Than 3/4 of Lost Jobs
No RecoveryNewark
Elmira Binghamton
PutnamFair-field
Edison
Kingston
NYC
PuertoRico
Share of Lost Jobs Gained BackLocal Total Employment Trough to Apri l 2014
GlensFalls
US = 99 percent
Buffalo
Rochester Syracuse
Utica
Albany
Ithaca
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Comparison to Previous RecessionsTotal Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak
9Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.
90
95
100
105
110Index (Start of Downturn = 100)
1stYear
2ndYear
3rdYear
4thYear
5thYear
6thYear
Start of LocalRecession
Early 1990sDownturn
Early 2000sDownturn RecentDownturn
Apr
U.S.
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Comparison to Previous RecessionsTotal Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak
10Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.
90
95
100
105
110
Upstate NY
New York City
Northern New Jersey
90
95
100
105
110 U.S.
Index (Start of Downturn = 100)
Early 1990sDownturn
Early 2000s
Downturn
Recent
Downturn
1stYear
2ndYear
3rdYear
4thYear
5thYear
6thYear
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Types of JobsLost and Gained
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Grouping Occupations into Skill CategoriesBased on 2013 Median Wage, United States
12Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Higher Skill Middle Skil l Lower SkillManagement
Computer & MathLegal
EngineeringBusiness & Finance
Healthcare PractitionerSciences
EducationArt s & EntertainmentInstallation & Repair
Social ServicesConstruction
Protective ServicesAdminis trative Support
ProductionTransportation
Healthcare SupportSales
Building MaintenancePersonal Care
FarmingFood Preparation
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Job Change During the Great RecessionPercent Change, United States, 2007 to 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 13
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%Higher Skill Lower SkillMiddle Skill
UnitedStates
1.0%
-9.3%
-2.6%
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Job Change During the Great RecessionPercent Change, Region, 2007 to 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 14
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%Higher Skill Lower SkillMiddle Skill
DownstateNY
UpstateNY
NorthernNJ
PuertoRico
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Job Change During the RecoveryPercent Change, United States, 2010 to 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 15
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill
UnitedStates
7.8%
1.9%
6.0%
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Job Change During the RecoveryPercent Change, Region, 2010 to 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 16
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill
DownstateNY
UpstateNY
NorthernNJ
PuertoRico
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A Shrinking MiddleShare of Jobs by Skill Group, 2007 and 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 17
28% 29%
52% 49%
20% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HigherSkill
MiddleSkill
LowerSkill
2007 2013
United States
28% 30% 27% 28% 26% 27% 25% 27%
50% 47% 54% 50% 52% 49%60% 55%
22% 23% 20% 21% 22% 23%16% 17%
2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013
Downstate NY Upstate NY Northern NJ Puerto Rico
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Summary
A growing number of places in the region have gained backthe number of jobs lost during the Great Recession
However, the typesof jobs in the region have changed Middle-skill jobs lost during the recession have not come back
Higher- and lower-skill jobs have grown during the recovery
Job opportunities in the middle have continued to shrink
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 18
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Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted, Local Peak and April 2014
Source: U S Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy com 21
10.0%
8.9%
10.1%9.7%
16.9%
6.3%6.7%
7.9%
6.9%
14.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
United States New York New York City New Jersey Puerto Rico
Peak
Current