Download - ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?
ADAPT, MOVE or DIE
Adapt?
Adapt?
Adapt?
Adapt?
MOVE?
Move?
beech
Move?
Moving Cloud Forests
• Monteverde, Costa Rica
• Golden toad extinction• Reptile/amphibian
abundance declines (frogs, toads, anoline lizards)
• Upslope Movement of birds
• Associated with trends in dry days (mist surrogate)
Move?
or Die?
Understanding the Future
Diastella proteoides
or Die?
Diastella proteoides
or Die?
Diastella proteoides
or Die?
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or Die?
or Die?
Source: Owen (2006)
or Die?
Malcolm et al (2006) Conservation Biology
or Die?
Extinction Risk, Cape Floristic Region(% of endemic species)
Thomas et al Malcolm et al
30.0 52.0 no dispersal 15.4 68.0
21.0 38.0 perfect dispersal 2.4 17.4
Region taxa Current
Protected Area
Additional Protected Area
required (no climate change)
Additional Protected Area required with
climate change
Cost of Waiting
km2 Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current)
Cape Floristic Region
Plants (Proteacea) 282
4,681 2,190 (47%) 2,485 (53%) 408 (9%)
Tropical Mexico
Birds and Mammals 179
104,000 44,000 (42%) 44,500 (43%) 12,300 (12%)
Western Europe
Plants (multiple taxa) 1200
20,850 3,850 (19%) 8,950 (43%) 2,000 (9%)
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or Die?
Hannah et al (2005) Bioscience
Improved conservation strategies
Limiting greenhouse gas concentrations
Extinctions are not inevitable