ADMS-Airport and its application toPSDH and the R3/Mixed Mode
consultation for Heathrow
Study conducted for DfT
David CarruthersDavid CarruthersCambridge Environmental Research ConsultantsCambridge Environmental Research Consultants
OMEGA International Conference on Airport Air Quality
London, October 14 2008
Contents
• Key Factors affecting AQ at Airports• Features of ADMS-Airport• Model Set-Up and Emissions• AQ Monitoring at Heathrow• AQ Monitoring at Heathrow• Model Performance and Results
1) Key factors affectingair quality at airportsair quality at airports
Key factors affecting air quality at airports
• Emissions • Background concentrations• Meteorology• Near field dispersion processes• Near field dispersion processes• Chemical reactions
2) Features of ADMS-Airport2) Features of ADMS-Airport
Features of ADMS-Airport
• An extension of ADMS-Urban – Gaussian type model nested in regional trajectory model
• Includes chemical reaction scheme, meteorological preprocessor, Monin-Obukhov and mixed layer scaling for boundary layer structurescaling for boundary layer structure
• Allowance for up to 6500 sources: road (1500, each with up to 50 vertices), point, line area and volume (1500), grid sources (3000) and up to 500 runway sources (exhaust modelled as moving jets)
• Other airport features Hour by hour time varying data Multi-segment line sources e.g. taxi ways GIS link displays line, volume and runway sources
Features: MODELLING EXHAUSTS AS MOVING
JETS - TAKE-OFF
• Models engine exhausts as moving jet sources
• As the aircraft accelerates buoyancy and emissions increasingly spread along the
runway
the exhaust jet sees a faster ambient wind speed, this affects the plume rise
• The plume from the faster aircraft rises less than that from a slower aircraft
Local and Regional Scales
Main model domain
Box model domain
• Main model nested within large, area-wide trajectory model
Backgound monitoring site
First source
U
3) Model Set-Up andEmissionsEmissions
• 2010 Segregated Mode (2010SM)
• 2015 Segregated Mode (2015SM)• 2015 Segregated Mode with Easterly Preference (2015EP)
• 2015 Segregated Mode with No Cranford Agreement (2015NoC)
Heathrow: SCENARIOS
• 2015 Mixed Mode (2015MM)• 2015 Mixed Mode with traffic mitigation (2015MMRd)
• 2030 Mixed Mode (2030MM)
• 2020 Third Runway (2020R3)
• 2030 Third Runway (2030R3)
0° 10°20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
80°280°
290°
300°
310°
320°
330°340°
350°
100
200
300
400
500
600
Heathrow: METEOROLOGICAL DATA 2002
0
0
3
1.5
6
3.1
10
5.1
16
8.2
(knots)
(m/s)
Wind speed
90°
100°
110°
120°
130°
140°
150°160°
170°180°190°200°
210°
220°
230°
240°
250°
260°
270°
Heathrow: BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS,
AVERAGE
30
40
50
60A
nn
ua
l A
ve
rag
e (
µg
/m³)
NOxNO2
%
%
%
%Harwell Rochester
WickenFen
4° to 184°184° to 4°
%
%
%
%Harwell Rochester
WickenFen
220°to
330°
330°to60°
60°to
135°135°
to220°
0
10
20
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
(µ
g/m
³)
O3PM10
%
LullingtonHeath
%
LullingtonHeath
• Gridded sources for all of London (LAEI,NAEI)
• Roads – local to Heathrow from LAEI (London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory) and the Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road
Heathrow: EMISSION SOURCES
Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road traffic data from Hyder)
• LTO: taxi-in, taxi-out, landing, approach, initial climb, climb out (AEA)
• Other: APU, airside vehicles, car parks, taxi ranks modelled as area or volume sources (AEA)
Heathrow: ANNUAL NOx EMISSIONS, ROAD & AIRPORT
4000
5000
6000
NO
x em
issi
on
s (t
/yr)
0
1000
2000
3000
2002 Base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 MM 2030 R3
NO
x em
issi
on
s (t
/yr)
Road
Airport
Heathrow: PRIMARY NO2 EMISSIONS
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ro
ad T
raff
ic P
rim
ary
NO
2
Heathrow areaRest of London
0%
5%
10%
2002 2010 2015 2020 2030
Year
Ro
ad T
raff
ic P
rim
ary
NO
2
Industrial sources: 10% primary NO2 assumedPrimary NO2 for aircraft depends on thrust100% - 4.5%; 85% - 5.3%; 30% - 15.0%; 7% - 37.5%
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS
• Light duty vehicles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6
• Heavy duty vehicles, roman numerals: IV, V, VI
• Motorcycles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 but may have different entry dates from the light duty vehicles
Euro 5 and V Euro 6 and VIEuro 5 and V Euro 6 and VI
Petrol cars Jan 2010 -
Petrol LGVs Jan 2011 -
Diesel cars Jan 2010 Jan 2015
Diesel LGVs Jan 2011 Jan 2016
HDVs Oct 2008 Jan 2013
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS – RIGID HDV
EURO V & VI rigid (urban, 2010)
8
10
12
emis
sion
fac
tor
(g/k
m)
0
2
4
6
8
0 50 100 150
speed
emis
sion
fac
tor
(g/k
m)
EURO VEURO VIP07 - EURO VP07 - EURO VI
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS – ARTIC HDV
EURO V & VI articulated (urban, 2010)
8
10
12
emis
sion
fact
or (
g/km
)
0
2
4
6
8
0 50 100 150
speed
emis
sion
fact
or (
g/km
)
EURO VEURO VIP07 - EURO VP07 - EURO VI
Heathrow: CURRENT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
TAKE-OFF 1
• BA have developed a method to relate information on take-off thrust to be derived from information on actual take-off weight
• The methodology is based on analysis of an extensive set of FDR and weight data for the fleet at Heathrow
• The method has been extended for use with airlines • The method has been extended for use with airlines other than BA and aircraft outside the data set by adding 5% to the estimate of thrust to account for uncertainties
Heathrow: CURRENT APU EMISSIONS
• NOX BA defined 6 APU class, each aircraft at Heathrow was
assigned to one the classes
Model emission indices were derived by BA from the detailed manufacturers’ data
• PM10 BA found a large variability in modal PM10 emission rates
The variability was found to be reduced if the PM10 emission rates were expressed as a function of the corresponding NOX index
Three classes of APU were defined with different NOX-PM10 relationships
Heathrow: FUTURE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
TAKE-OFF
• Based on judgement by Qinetiq on evolution of aircraft engines for current fleet and future fleet.
• Takes into account manufacturers targets, technology expectations technology expectations
• Emissions primarily characterised in terms relative to CAEP/4 limits
• Higher average take-off thrust settings on R3
4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow
Heathrow: AMBIENT MONITORING SITES 1
Heathrow: MONITORED NOX CONCENTRATIONS
NOx trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions
250
300
350
400
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
mg/m
3)
LHR2
LHR5
LHR6
LHR8
LHR10
LHR11
LHR14
LHR15
LHR16
LHR17
LHR18
0
50
100
150
200
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
NO
x c
on
cen
trat
ion
( LHR18
LHR2 predicted
LHR5 predicted
LHR6 predicted
LHR8 predicted
LHR10 predicted
LHR11 predicted
LHR14 predicted
LHR15 predicted
LHR16 predicted
LHR17 predicted
LHR18 predicted
Heathrow: MONITORED NO2 CONCENTRATIONS
NO2 trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions
50
60
70
g/m
3)
LHR2
LHR5
LHR6
LHR8
LHR10
LHR11
LHR14
LHR15
LHR16
0
10
20
30
40
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
NO
2 c
on
cen
trat
ion
(mg
/m
LHR17
LHR18
LHR2 predicted
LHR5 predicted
LHR6 predicted
LHR8 predicted
LHR10 predicted
LHR11 predicted
LHR14 predicted
LHR15 predicted
LHR16 predicted
LHR17 predicted
LHR18 predicted
Heathrow: MONITORED NO2/NOX RATIO
NO2 / NOx ratio trend
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
/ NO
x r
atio
LHR2
LHR5
LHR6
LHR10
LHR11
LHR14
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
NO
2 /
NO
LHR14
LHR15
LHR16
LHR17
LHR8
5) Model performance andResultsResults
LHR2
LHR16
LHR10
100
150
200
250
Mo
del
led
NO
x (u
g/m
3)
LHR16 LHR2
LHR8
LHR5LHR11
LHR14LHR15
LHR10
30
40
50
60
70
Mo
del
led
NO
2 (u
g/m
3)
Scatter plot comparison of monitored and modelled annual average NOX and NO2
LHR5LHR11
LHR14
LHR8LHR15LHR6
0
50
100
0 50 100 150 200 250
Measured NOx (ug/m3)
Mo
del
led
NO
x (u
g/m
3)
LHR6LHR8
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Measured NO2 (ug/m3)M
od
elle
d N
O2
(ug
/m3)
LHR2 “Box and whisker” plots for the ratio of (calculated/monitored) concentrations, NOX (top) and NO2 (bottom).
Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO2 concentration
10
Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NOx concentration
0.1
1
10
LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16
Ra
tio
of
NO
x c
on
cen
tra
tio
n
The lines indicate the 75th, 50th and 25th
percentiles and the lines extend from the 95th to 5th percentile.
0.1
1
10
LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16
Ra
tio
of
NO
2 co
nce
ntr
atio
n
LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16
LHR2 diurnal variation ADMS-Airport (solid line) compared with measured data (dotted line), different runway use
100
120
140
160N
Ox
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
ug
/m3
)
D LHR2-LHR8 Measured
D LHR2-LHR8 Modelled
A LHR2-LHR8 Measured
A LHR2-LHR8 Modelled
0
20
40
60
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of the day
NO
x c
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(u
g/m
3)
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
orth
ing
(me
tres
)
40
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
BaseCaseNOX
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
173000
174000
175000
176000
No
1
2
5
10
20
30
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
rth
ing
(met
res)
35
40
50
60
70
80BaseCaseNO2
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
173000
174000
175000
176000
Nor
0
10
20
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
Nor
thin
g(m
etre
s)
30
33
36
39
42
45
BaseCaseozone
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
173000
174000
175000
N
15
18
21
24
27
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
173000
174000
175000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
No
rthi
ng(m
etre
s)
1
2
3
4
5
10
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
173000
174000
175000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
Nor
thin
g(m
etre
s)
1
2
3
4
5
10
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Easting (metres)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Easting (metres)
173000
174000
175000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
Nor
thin
g(m
etr
es)
1
2
3
4
5
10
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
PM10 due to -All sources (top left)-Airport and other airport sources (top right)-Road sources (bottom)
Page 41, “Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport: Consultation Document”, Department for Transport, November 2007
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
173000
174000
175000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
Nor
thin
g(m
etr
es)
2002 Base Case 2010 SM 2015 SM
Predicted NO2 concentrations
Easting (metres)
503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000
Eastings (metres)
173000
174000
175000
176000
177000
178000
179000
180000
181000
Nor
thin
gs(m
etre
s)
2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3
Scenarios: ANNUAL AVERAGE CONCENTRATION OF
NOx and NO2 ACROSS THE DOMAIN
50
60
70
80
90A
nn
ual
ave
rag
e (µ
g/m
³)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
An
nu
al a
vera
ge
(µg
/m³)
Average NOxAverage NO2
Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES &
POPULATION PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT
Case Properties Population
2002 Base 7336 17581
2010SM 1386 3126
2015SM 56 1392015SM 56 139
2015MM 91 199
2015MMrd 35 75
2030MM 0 0
2020R3 0 0
2030R3 0 0
Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES PREDICTED
TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT
5000
6000
7000
8000P
rop
erti
es E
xcee
din
g 4
0µg
/m³
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
Pro
per
ties
Exc
eed
ing
40µ
g/m
³
Scenarios: PERCENTAGE AREA OF DOMAIN
EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT
15
20
25P
erc
en
tag
e a
rea
ex
ce
ed
ing
40
µg
/m³
0
5
10
2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
Pe
rce
nta
ge
are
a e
xc
ee
din
g 4
0µ
g/m
³
Scenarios: PDFs OF ANNUAL AVERGAE NO2
CONCENTRATIONS
0.08
0.1
0.12
Pro
bab
ilit
y 2002 Base
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Annual average NO2 (µg/m³)
Pro
bab
ilit
y
2015MM
2030MM
2030 R3
Scenarios: AREA EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT AS A
FUNCTION OF AIRPORT AND ROAD NOX EMISSIONS
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500A
vera
ge
NO
x E
mis
sio
ns
fro
m R
oad
Tra
ffic
(t/
yr)
2002 BaseSize = AreaExceeding40µg/m³
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Average NOx Emissions from Airport (t/yr)
Ave
rag
e N
Ox
Em
issi
on
s fr
om
Ro
ad T
raff
ic (
t/yr
)
2010 SM
2015 SM
2015 MM
2030 MM2030 R3
2020 R3
Conclusions
Key factors affecting pollutant concentrations in the neighbourhood of airports include the following:
• Emissions including primary NO2
• Background concentrations e.g. O3
• Meteorology• Meteorology• Near field dispersion processes• Chemical reactions
Heathrow Mixed Mode and R3 – Consultation period over; DfT preparing response