Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Session 4.3. Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Learning Objectives
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After this session, participants should be able to: Explain the importance and value of identifying the opportunities & threats (shocks) likely to affect food & nutrition security List and apply four key elements – i.e. frequency, probability of occurrence, expected timing of occurrence, and severity or benefit scale - to analyse opportunities & shocks
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Where are we?
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EFSA ProcessAdapt conceptual framework & objectivesPrepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sourcesCollect, review secondary dataCollect primary dataConduct situation analysisConduct forecast analysisAnalyse response optionsMake response recommendationsPrepare report
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Forecasting is, by definition,
uncertain requires assumptions
– and good judgment
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Forecasting process1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to
affect food & nutrition security
2. Develop scenario(s) describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance
3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario
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1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 1
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Opportunities:
Events that will likely improve the situation
Can be natural or man-made
Shocks:
Events with likely negative impact
Can be natural or man-made
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Examples: opportunities and shocks
Opportunities Shocks
Natural Return of rains LocustsDrought
Man-made
Peace agreementSuspension of
trade restrictions
ConflictImposition of
trade restrictions
Some examples of opportunities and shocks in countries of participants?
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Analyzing opportunities & shocks: 4 elements
Frequency
Probability of occurrence
Expected timing of occurrence
Severity or benefit scale
Low? Average?
High?
Recurrent?Persistent?Occasional?
Reasonablypredictable?
unpredictable?
Low?Average?
High?
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Need to disaggregate Opportunities / shocks affect different groups differently
Disaggregation by sex, age, health status, ethnicity or other relevant characteristic
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Exercise 4.3.a. Analysing Opportunities & ShocksIdentify an opportunity or crisis that could affect your country:
Analyze by:
1. Frequency (recurrent? persistent? occasional?)
2. Probability of occurrence (low-average-high?)
3. Expected time of occurrence (predictable or not?)
4. Severity of impact on food and nutrition security (low-average-high?)
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2. Develop scenarios describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 2
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Note on scenariosWhat is a scenario?A description of the situation that could occur if certain things happen
It documents assumptions on how the situation might evolve
Why elaborate scenarios?
To predict evolution of food & nutrition security situation and orient response options analysis
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Which scenarios? How many?Consider: Opportunities and shocks: dominant and
secondary events How will these affect food security, lives and
livelihoods? Most likely scenario and worst case scenario
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3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario 3
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Scenarios & affected groups
Take “most likely” scenario; relate it to current situation
Determine if situation of food insecure – of at risk groups – will change in this scenario (improve or deteriorate)
Identify food secure and not-at-risk groups whose situation is expected to deteriorate in the most likely scenario
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Estimate numbers of food insecure in the most likely scenarioBegin with: Number of HHs currently food insecure and whose lives
and livelihoods are at riskAdd (+): Number of HHs who will become food insecure and at
greater riskDeduct (-): Number of HHs who are currently food insecure and
whose lives and livelihoods are at risk whose situation is expected to improve
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Exercise 4.3.b. Developing Scenarios Each Working Group: consider the opportunities & shocks
for your case 1 hour + 1 hour discussion
Scenario & probability
(1-5; 5 = most likely)Period Opportunity
or shockGroups most likely affected
Scenario A
Scenario B