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Aging in PA: Aging in PA: Opportunities for Opportunities for
ChangeChange
Secretary Nora Dowd Secretary Nora Dowd EisenhowerEisenhower
Pennsylvania Department of Pennsylvania Department of AgingAging
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Demographic Trends 2010 – 2020
• Huge increases in 60 – 80 year-old group (boomers)
• By 2020, the 60+ population will be 1/3 larger than today – 3.3 versus 2.5 million.• Significant decreases in younger groups
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-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Years
Perc
ent
Under 18
65 & Older
Linear (65 &Older)Linear (Under18)
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005.
Percent of Pennsylvania PopulationUnder Age 18 & Age 65+
2000 - 2030
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U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections PA, 2005.
Census Projection ProjectionAge 2000 2010 2020
60-69 8.1% 10.1% 12.7%70-79 7.4% 6.1% 8.0%80+ 4.3% 5.1% 5.0%Total 19.8% 21.4% 25.6%
Percent of Older Population in Each Age
Group
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5
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Census2000
Proj2005
Proj2007
Proj2009
Proj2011
Proj2013
Proj2015
Proj2017
Proj2019
Proj2021
Proj2023
Proj2025
Proj2027
Proj2029
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
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Projections of 60+ age groups
2000-2030
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Besides the Numbers
Why the boomers are Why the boomers are going to change going to change
everything about aging everything about aging as we know itas we know it
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Boomers Have Always Changed Everything
• Will Continue To Do So• “60 ain’t what it used to be!”
– A key theme– Even more true over the next decade, as majority of
boomers pass age 60
• Lifestage Analytic Matrix ™
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Boomer Values
• Boomers have a very different mindset & value structure from “seniors” as we know them
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WWII/Post-War Values Mindset
• “Don’t make waves”• “Fit in – don’t stand out”• No Surprises!• “Follow the Rules”
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Boomers Values Mindset
• Do What’s “Right” (embrace causes)• Do What Feels Good• Challenge Institutions & “Authority”• Don’t just “Follow the Rules”
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Why are they so different?
– Same country–Same culture
– Not that far apart in time
Because different cohorts have different defining moments
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U.S. Cohorts: 1930 - U.S. Cohorts: 1930 - 20062006
19201920 19301930 19401940 19501950 1960196019101910 19701970 19801980
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19901930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
19901990
Depression(1912 - 21)
Post-War(1928 - 45)
Boomer I(1946 - 54)
Boomer II(1955 - 65)
13th Gen(1966 - 76
Birth Year:Birth Year:
Cohort Years (@ 18) :Cohort Years (@ 18) : Age in 2006:Age in 2006:
Depression(1912 - 21)
Post-War(1928 - 45)
Boomer I(1946 - 54)
Boomer II(1955 - 65)
Gen X (1966 - 77)
94- 8594- 85 84 - 7984 - 79 78 - 6178 - 61 60 - 60 - 5151
50 - 50 - 4040
39 – 39 – 2929
19%19%% US adult Pop. 4%4% 6%6% 21%21% 14%14% 22%22%
N-Gen(1978 - ?)
WW II(1922 - 27)
28 - 28 - 181814%14%
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20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Peak Disposable Income
LIFESTAGES
N-Gen Gen-X Boomer II Boomer I Post War W W II Depression
RetirementGrandparent
Empty-NestingDivorc
e
Widowhood
Peak Income Asset Depletion
AGE
MarriageChildren
CollegeLeast Disposable Income
Lifestage Analytic Matrix
Source: Defining Markets, Defining Moments, Meredith & Schewe
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Post- War
AGE: 60AGE: 60 65 65 7070 75 75 8080 8585 9090 95 95
Boomers
WWII Depression
60+ Age Cohorts: 2006
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Post- War
AGE: 60AGE: 60 65 65 7070 75 75 8080 8585 9090 9595
Leading-Edge
Boomers
Trailing-EdgeBoomers
WW II
60+ Age Cohorts: 2020
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Conclusion: You Can’t Focus on an Age
• In constant flux• “Cohort Metabolism”:
- New cohorts being added at younger end of spectrum
- Old cohorts being depleted at older end
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Huge Increase in ‘Frail Elderly’
55% increase in 85+ demographic happening NOW!
Major pressure on services More than Aging
Public Health Preparedness Agriculture Parks & Recreation; Fish & Game Housing / Health Care /Workforce Transportation Education
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Short Term: Good News
Big growth until 2010 (+28 %) in the number of workers at maximum earnings ages (50 – 62)
Implication: strong income tax receipts until the boomers start to retire
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Bad News: Boomer Retirement
Once boomers start to retire• Income tax receipts down sharply• Pressure on pension funds (public & private)
Fewer people available in the workforce Smaller number of workers supporting much
larger number of elders Major implications for health care & housing Tax breaks for elderly will become very costly
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Shortage of Health Care Providers
RN shortage to grow to 12% by 2010 By 2020, a shortage of 1 million nurses,
nationally
Higher demand for doctors (per 1000 population)
2.8 in 2000 3.1 in 2020
Increased demand for pharmacists Expected shortfall of 157,000 by 2020
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Health Care for Older Adults
• 80% of 65+ have one chronic disease; 50% have two• 32% of physician care hours on 65+
• 39% by 2020• 5% of seniors will experience macular degeneration – need for programs for visually
impaired• 35% will fall & break a bone• Most likely to suffer from depression• Rising incidence of HIV
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So what are we doing in PA?
PA 2020 Vision
Prescription for Pennsylvania
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PA “2020 Vision”Executive Order 2006-04:
June 16 2006
Assess challenges & opportunities Analyze projected PA demographic/psychographic
shifts from 2006-2020
Develop Agency Response Plan Determine program & fiscal impact Survey agencies under the governor’s jurisdiction
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Step I: Survey Surveyed Agencies
• To identified long-range planning efforts • 72 entities surveyed
• 37 cabinet-level agencies• 45 other agencies & stakeholder groups
37 responses received• 17 cabinet level• 20 others
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17 Cabinet-level responses• 7 had a plan• 6 developing plans• 4 had no plan• Most short-term (3 – 5 yrs)
20 other agency responses• 1 had a plan• 12 developing plan• 7 had no plan
Conclusion:Need Long-Range Planning
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Data Driven Response
1. Each agency selected three trends that most affect their area of responsibility
2. Determined what they should be doing NOW to prepare = Agency Response Plan
3. PDA compiling a final report for the governor due out this summer
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2020 Next Steps1. Report due to Governor July 2007
• Crosscutting themes heard from other agencies: Technology Workforce Public Education Long–Term Living
2. Form Stakeholder Partnerships• The Commonwealth cannot do this alone
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Prescription for Pennsylvania
Provide access to affordable, quality health care for all Pennsylvanians
Improve the quality of care available in the state
Bring health care costs under control for employers and employees
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Why?
Every year, Pennsylvania businesses, consumers and taxpayers pay at least $7.6 billion for unnecessary and avoidable health care costs.
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Prescription for Pennsylvania
Four Dimensions: Affordability
Access
Quality
Cost
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Affordability
Cover All Pennsylvanians (CAP) Offer affordable basic health
coverage to small businesses and the uninsured through the private insurance market
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Access Help health care providers to
practice to the fullest extent of their training and skills
Promote incentives for health care providers who offer services in the evenings and on weekends, reducing unnecessary ER visits
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Quality
Increase accountability of consumers, hospitals and other care providers
Improve patient safety by eliminating hospital-acquired infections and targeting avoidable medical errors
Use nationally proven model for managing chronic conditions
Reward wellness, include consumer incentives
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Cost
Driving Down Costs: Some Examples
Bring down the cost of health insurance coverage (CAP) for individuals and small businesses
Require state of the art patient safety and electronic health records
Promote wellness and stop paying for unnecessary or ineffective medical services
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Summary• Information sounds
challenging• Huge Opportunity
•We know what’s coming (not a surprise)
•Mandate to think ahead (for a change)
• Keep ‘em healthy