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Spices Zooms On Festive Demand!
WEEKLYAGRI REPORT
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Weekly Chart
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeerasustains below the level of 12500 then we can expect a level of 12050, and if it sustains above 13500 we can see the level of13900.
Strategy
Last week Jeera was in consolidation and was neither able to sustain at higher level nor at lower level. For the next weekresistance in Jeera is found at 13500 and support at 12500.
JEERA DROPS ON SUBDUED DEMAND
Jeera November contract dropped Rs 115 and sett led at Rs 13080 a kg due
to sluggish export demand and hopes of a rise in acreage in the up-coming
sowing season. Export demand is not encouraging. But any improvement
in export demand may push the prices up. The total arrivals of Jeera were
around 1100 bags were reported at Unjha Mandi against 1000 bags from
the previous day. The NCDEX Jeera futures traded on a negative note
during last week's trading session. Extended fresh buying supported the
prices. Reduced arrivals at spot market also added to the upside. However,
prices failed to sustained the gains and fell drastically on prof it booking at
higher levels and ended the week in red. The NCDEX Jeera futures areexpected to trade slightly positive during next week's trading session.
Short covering may support the prices. However, weakening export
demand despite of lower prices in international market is likely to weigh on
sentiments. Good soil moisture for next season sowing may induce farmers
to sow more area under Jeera crop.
Weekly Pivots
R4 14485
13525R2
P
S2
13045
12565
S4 11606
SCRIPT JEERA
14000R3
13260R1
S1 12775
S3 12086
Weak Demand
Fresh Buying
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTJEERA
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Weekly Chart
For next week traders should go for buying on lower level strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 2120 we can see thelevel of 2170, and below 1980 it can touch the level of 1930.
Strategy
Last week we saw some good buying coming in Guar seed and it sustained at higher levels for most part of the week, but someprofit booking came on the last day of the week. For the next week resistance in Guar seed is found at 2120 and support at
1980.
GUAR DECLINES ON PROFIT BOOKING
Guar futures touched a high of Rs. 2110 per qt l level, however, sett led
range bound towards the end due to profit booking. The demand for
Guar seed and gum at lower prices levels still persist which is
supporting Guar prices. Supply tightness would continue to rule the
markets till the fresh arrivals of good quality crop gain momentum.
Fresh arrivals would peak up only by the end of October. Till then Guar
prices may remain firm. The Guar seed crop is going to be a bumper
crop and hence the upside would be capped once the fresh arrivals gain
momentum from major guar growing areas. November onwards Guar
prices may again decline on expectat ions of a bumper crop in 2010-11
which is currently estimated to be around 150 lakh bags (15 lakh
tones). Pace of arrivals and overseas demand would also influence the
prices. After gaining more than 3.8% in the last 2 days, Guar futures
may remain sideways in the intraday due to lack of fresh fundamentals.
In the short term Guar prices are expected to trade firm as supply
tightness may continue till the fresh arrivals gain momentum. In the
medium term (November onwards), the price trend will depend on the
pace of arrivals of Guar crop, demand from the overseas market and
stocks of Guar with the stockists.
Weekly Pivots
R4 2478
2196R2
P
S2
2055
1914
S4 1632
SCRIPT GUARSEED
2337R3
2130R1
S1 1989
S3 1773
Profit Booking
High Arrival Expectation
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTGUARSEED
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Weekly Chart
Soybean is in a consolidation phase on charts and one should look for buying opportunit ies at lower levels, if Soybean sustainsabove the level of 2310 we can see the level of 2365, and on the down side if it sustains below the level of 2100 we can seeSoybean at 2035 level.
Strategy
Last week Soybean breaks the important resistance of 2200 but was not able to sustain near it and even closed below the level.
For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2310 and support at 2100.
SOYBEAN TUM BLES ON PROFIT BOOKING
NCDEX November Soybean futures closed lower on profit taking after
sharp rise in the last 3-4 days. Spread between NCDEX November and
December contract is Rs 27 against previous day of Rs 37.50 per 100
Kg. CBOT November Soybean futures ended higher at $ 11.88/bushels
on Thursday, up 12.00 cents/bushel as compared to previous close.
CBOT December Soybean meal futures ended higher at $ 331.70/ton
on Thursday, up $2.70/tonne as compared to previous close. For
Intraday, Soybean prices are expected to trade higher in anticipation ofbetter export demand of Soy meal and there is news that the virus
attack on Soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh, which may damage 1% of
total crop. In the medium term, prices are expected to slip again on
account of fresh arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, which is a major
producing state of soybean and it contributes more than 50% of its
total production. Existing better carry over stock this year as compared
to last year are in favour of bears.
Weekly Pivots
R4 2626
2342R2
P
S2
2200
2058
S4 1774
SCRIPT SOYABEAN
2484R3
2265R1
S1 2123
S3 1916
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT
Profit Booking
Better Export Demand
SOYABEAN
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Weekly Chart
Overall trend of Chana is of consolidation and one should go for buying on lower level strategy in it. For the coming week ifChana sustains above 2450 level we can see it at 2500 and below 2280 we can expect the level of 2245.
Strategy
Last week we saw good buying coming in Chana at lower levels and it even closed near to its weekly high. For the coming
week Chana has resistance at 2450 and support at 2280.
CHANA GAINS ON FESTIVE DEMAND
Demand for Chana dal has improved in the past few weeks; however,
weakness in other Pulses is capping the gains at higher levels. Festive
demand ahead may keep Chana prices firm only in the short term.
According to the market sources, MSP of Chana which was set at Rs.
1760 per qtl in the last year may increase to Rs. 2100 per qtl. This will
support the Chana prices as, no farmer w ill sell their produce below Rs.
2100 per qtl. Overall fundamentals are not supportive for the prices to
rise in the medium term (November) as India is going to harvest record
pulses crop in Kharif 2010. The acreage under pulses has expanded by awhopping 20 lakh hectares from last year. Spread between October and
November contract is at Rs. 46 as compared to Rs.50 per qtl. In the short
term, Chana prices may trade sideways with positive bias on
expectations of better demand ahead of festive seasons. However,
November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under
pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses. In
the long term (December onwards) Chana prices may take cues from the
prices of other pulses and sowing progress of Chana in the major
growing areas.
Weekly Pivots
R4 2673
2461R2
P
S2
2355
2249
S4 2037
SCRIPT CHANA
2567R3
2420R1
S1 2314
S3 2143
Festive Demand
Higher Sowing Acreage
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTCHANA
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Weekly Pivots
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA 14026.67 13546.67 13298.33 13066.67 12818.33 12586.67 12106.67
TURMERIC 16856.00 15990.00 15634.00 15124.00 14768.00 14258.00 13392.00
PEPPER 19969.00 19285.00 18946.00 18601.00 18262.00 17917.00 17233.00
SOYABEAN 2483.67 2341.67 2264.33 2199.67 2122.33 2057.67 1915.67
GUARGUM 5275.67 5021.67 4883.33 4767.67 4629.33 4513.67 4259.67
GUARSEED 2337.33 2196.33 2130.67 2055.33 1989.67 1914.33 1773.33
CHANA 2568.33 2462.33 2422.67 2356.33 2316.67 2250.33 2144.33
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
MUSTARD SEED 580.82 568.87 561.58 556.92 549.63 544.97 533.02
KAPAS 790.17 761.47 743.23 732.77 714.53 704.07 675.37
GUR 1021.33 980.13 954.07 938.93 912.87 897.73 856.53
CARDAMOM 1196.80 1111.00 1079.40 1025.20 993.60 939.40 853.60
CRUDE PALM OIL 454.03 442.53 437.57 431.03 426.07 419.53 408.03
REFINED SOYA OIL 557.95 540.60 531.50 523.25 514.15 505.90 488.55
MENTHA OIL 1146.00 1064.50 1028.70 983.00 947.20 901.50 820.00
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Weekly Report Agri18th Oct to 23rd Oct 2010
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