Download - Agri Commodity) Tips for the Week
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17th May 2010 to 22nd May 2010
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Dull Demand Prevail In Spices!!
WEEKLYAGRI REPORT
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Weekly Agri Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
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Weekly Chart
Jeera is bearish on charts and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 11600 then we can expect a level of 11200, and if it sustains above 13060 we can see the level of 13500.
Strategy
Jeera remained weak for the entire previous week, and closed near to its low on Saturday. For the upcoming week Jeera has animportant support of 11600 and resistance of 13060.
DULL DEMAND PREVAIL IN JEERA
Lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic buyers will
pressurize the prices. However, Jeera crop in Syria and Turkey are near
to harvesting stage. Any vagaries in weather in above said nations will
provide support to the prices. According the market sources Jeeraproduction in Syria is expected to be 20 thousand tonnes and Turkey
and Iran at 15 thousand tonnes each. But carryover stocks in these
above nations are very low. In medium to long term (June onwards)
Jeera price trend would be determined by the clear crop estimates inSyria and Turkey and demand from the overseas and domestic market.
Lacklustre demand from the domestic as well as overseas buyers will
keep Jeera prices sideways to down in the intraday. In the short term
(May) trend will depend on demand from the domestic and overseasmarket, weather in Syria and Turkey, the other major producers of Jeera
and Jeera price parity of the different origins in the international
market. In the medium to long term (June onwards) prices are likely to
take cues from the Jeera production estimates in Syria and Turkey andexpectation of demand from the overseas market.
Weekly Pivots
R4 14476
13156R2
P
S2
12496
11836
S4 10516
SCRIPT JEERA
13816R3
12722R1
S1 12062
S3 11176
Low Demand
High Arrivals
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTJEERA
Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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R E S E A R C H
Weekly Agri Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
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Weekly Chart
Traders should go for selling on higher levels strategy, if Guarseed sustains below the level of 2200 we can see the level of2110, and above 2440 it can go further upside till 2510.
Strategy
Guarseed is weak on charts and has closed below the important level of 2335. For the next week resistance is found at 2577
level and support at 2200.
GUAR MAY FALL IN SHORT RUN
Good rains will be beneficial for the crop leading to better production
thereby pressurizing the prices. According to Indian Metrological
Department there will be near normal rains which is restricting the
prices to go up. However, lower production of Guar in the previous year
has led availability of the Guar and Guar gum to be scarce. Significant
demand from the overseas buyers will provide support to the prices.
Prices in the short term will also take cues from the demand from the
overseas buyers. In the long to medium term prices will takes cues from
the advent of rains in the coastal areas and its advancement into theinterior parts of the nation. Guar seed futures are likely to trade in
sideways to down manner with reduced demand from the overseas
buyers. Lower production estimates for the year 2009-2010 will
control the prices from falling sharply down. In medium to long term
prices will take cues from the long range forecast of monsoon by the
Indian Metrological Department (IMD).
Weekly Pivots
R4 2779
2485R2
P
S2
2338
2191
S4 1897
SCRIPT GUARSEED
2632R3
2400R1
S1 2253
S3 2044
Reduced Overseas Demand
Favorable Weather Conditions
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTGUARSEED
Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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R E S E A R C H
Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
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Weekly Chart
Soybean is in consolidation and one should look for selling opportunities at higher levels, if it sustains below the level of 1910we can see the level of 1880/1850/1770, and on the upper side if it sustains above the level of 2075 we can see Soybean at2170 level.
Strategy
Soybean was in a very narrow range for the entire previous week and was not able to sustain at higher levels. For the coming
week Soybean has support at 1910 and 1880 and resistance at 2075 and 2170.
SHORT COVERING PUSHES SOYBEAN UP
Soybean futures ended mildly higher on short covering on Thursday. TheUSDA's Weekly export sales were in line with expectations for Soybean, mealand oil. Net sales for Soybean came in at 263,300 tonnes for the currentmarketing year and 211,300 for next year for a total of 474,600. As of May 6,
cumulative Soybean sales stand at 95.1% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010versus a 5 year average of 92.9%. Old crop sales need to average 116,000tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at68,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 25,000 for next year for atotal of 93,300 tonnes. Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 83.8% of theforecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 72.6%. Old crop sales needto average 82,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Soybean
prices are expected to trade slightly lower on weak fundamentals (short term).However, in the long term perspective, Soybean prices are expected to tradelower on higher global Soybean production estimate this year as compared tolast year. Decline in domestic oil meal export this year as compared to last yearare also in favour of bears.
Weekly Pivots
R4 2118
2046R2
P
S2
2010
1974
S4 1902
SCRIPT SOYABEAN
2082R3
2025R1
S1 1989
S3 1938
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT
High Production
Short Covering
SOYABEAN
Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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R E S E A R C H
Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
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Weekly Chart
Overall trend of Chana is still bearish and one should go for selling on higher level strategy in it. For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2065 level we can see it at 2000 and above 2175 we can expect the level of 2260.
Strategy
Chana remained weak on charts for the whole week, but some short covering came on Saturday. For the coming week Chanahas resistance at 2175 and support at 1985.
CHANA REMAIN BEARISH
Lower prices of Chana are attracting local stockists to go for additional
buying which will control prices from falling sharply down below spot
prices. However, increase in the stocks at the NCDEX warehouse will
restrict the prices from moving sharply higher. Better availability of
Chana i.e. better production and sufficient carryover stocks of Chana
with the stockists will provide support to bears. According to farm
ministry Chana acreage as on April 8, 2010 stood at 8.93 million
hectares as compared to 8.36 million hectares in the same period a
year ago. Overall Chana production for the year 2009-2010 is abumper crop with good carryover stocks. Production of Chana in
2009-2010 is estimated at 7.38 million tonnes as compared to 7.06
million tonnes in 2008-09. This will cap the upside in the long term
(June onwards). Chana futures are likely to trade in downward manner
due to sufficient stocks available with the stockists and slow demand.
Prices in the short term (May) will depend on the fresh arrivals from the
mandis and demand from domestic market. In the long term (June
onwards) prices may take cues from the prices of other pulses and
demand from the domestic stockists.
Weekly Pivots
R4 2249
2151R2
P
S2
2102
2053
S4 1955
SCRIPT CHANA
2200R3
2128R1
S1 2079
S3 2004
High Stocks
Fresh Arrivals
REASONS FOR MOVEMENTCHANA
Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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R E S E A R C H
Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
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Weekly Pivots
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA 12949.00 13156.33 12722.67 12496.33 12062.67 11836.33 11402.67
TURMERIC 16289.00 16196.00 15480.00 14671.00 13955.00 13146.00 12430.00
PEPPER 18228.00 17936.33 17430.67 16633.33 16127.67 15330.33 14824.67
SOYABEAN 1993.50 1999.33 1980.67 1967.83 1949.17 1936.33 1917.67
GUARGUM 5509.00 5552.67 5301.33 5093.67 4842.33 4634.67 4383.33
GUARSEED 2462.00 2485.00 2400.00 2338.00 2253.00 2191.00 2106.00
CHANA 2155.00 2151.33 2128.67 2102.33 2079.67 2053.33 2030.67
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
MUSTARD SEED 512.25 511.50 507.25 502.25 498.00 493.00 488.75
WHEAT 1209.80 1203.53 1190.67 1171.53 1158.67 1139.53 1126.67
GUR 1013.40 1006.07 992.33 971.27 957.53 936.47 922.73
CARDAMOM 1647.10 1654.70 1601.40 1555.70 1502.40 1456.70 1403.40
CRUDE PALM OIL 370.90 372.23 368.27 365.63 361.67 359.03 355.07
REFINED SOYA OIL 455.65 458.83 451.27 446.88 439.32 434.93 427.37
MENTHA OIL 744.90 747.13 721.77 698.63 673.27 650.13 624.77
Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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R E S E A R C H
Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010
R E S E A R C HR E S E A R C H
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Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010
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