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1from recession to restart
From Recession to Restartgearing up for the next wave of growth
Gerard O’NeillAmárach Research
July 2010
© Amárach Research, 2010
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from recession to restart
1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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from recession to restart
1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
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4from recession to restart
Ireland at a Turning Point
?
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5from recession to restart
A Soft Takeoff
Consumer spending recovering through 2011
Government spending contracting through 2011
Unemployment will peak this summer
Deflation will slowly turn to inflation by 2011
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6from recession to restart
Business Confident
June 2010
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7from recession to restart
Back Where We Started
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8from recession to restart
Think Global
3%+2%+
2%+9%+
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9from recession to restart
The fundamental drivers of growth are
stronger than they have been at any point
in human history. These include the
increasing number of highly educated and
capable people in the world, the
breathtaking speed of technological
breakthroughs, globalization, the inclusion
of ‘the next billion’ into the world economy,
and relative political stability.
Hans-Paul Buerkner
Boston Consulting Group
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from recession to restart
2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
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11from recession to restart
DABDA did it
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13from recession to restart
... confidence drives consumption
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14from recession to restart
Some Hope
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15from recession to restart
Car Sales Catching Up
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,0002
00
6M
01
20
06
M0
32
00
6M
05
20
06
M0
72
00
6M
09
20
06
M11
20
07
M0
12
00
7M
03
20
07
M0
52
00
7M
07
20
07
M0
92
00
7M
11
20
08
M0
12
00
8M
03
20
08
M0
52
00
8M
07
20
08
M0
92
00
8M
11
20
09
M0
12
00
9M
03
20
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M0
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9M
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M0
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00
9M
11
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M0
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01
0M
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M0
5
No. Of New Passenger Vehicles Registered Year-on-Year % Growth
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16from recession to restart
Price, Price, Price
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Convenience (61%)
No. 2: Price (31%)
No. 3: Quality (21%)
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Price (62%)
No. 2: Convenience (43%)
No. 3: Quality (10%)
Take advantage of special offers and coupons:
2007: 30% 2010: 53%
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from recession to restart
3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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18from recession to restart
The Pope’s Grandchildren
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19from recession to restart
Big Night In
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20from recession to restart
Family Time
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21from recession to restart
Don’t Forget the Grandparents
www.businessofageing.com
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22from recession to restart
A Very Direct Response
Addressed Direct Mail
1.5 per week
Transactional Mail
1.2 per week
Door Drops
6.7 per week
Likeability
Interest
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23from recession to restart 23
DM Works
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24from recession to restart
Life Online
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25from recession to restart
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from recession to restart
A Path to Recovery
restoring trust
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27from recession to restart
Who do you trust?
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28from recession to restart
The Big Switch
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29from recession to restart
New Realities, New Opportunities
Pre-Recession Post-Recession
Whatever it costs What does it cost?
Leverage borrowings Deleverage debts
Meet in the hall Meet at the dinner table
Technology as distraction Technology as connection
Text me Write me
Trust your boss Trust your mum!
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from recession to restart
‘Irishness’: about restoring trust and forging deeper, emotional connections with the Irish people.
It’s back to 2002/2003: manage your costs and your business accordingly.
Focus on loyalty: you can’t afford to take it for granted any more.
Stay in touch: use the direct approach when you have customer permission to do so.
And remember: all recessions end in recovery – and so will this one.
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31from recession to restart
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200 E: [email protected]
W: www.amarach.com B: www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com