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An integrated approach to agriculture and the Nexus
Expert Group Meeting on Improving Access to Water, Sanitation and Energy Services in Asia and the Pacific, by addressing the Water-Food-Energy nexus
21 March 2013 | Bangkok, Thailand
Alessandro Flammini, PhD Natural Resources Management and Environment Department| FAO, Rome
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Understanding the NEXUS NEXUS Challenges: • 0.87 billion people are undernourished • 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity • 0.9 billion people lack access to safe drinking water and 2.6 billion to
adequate sanitation • 60% more food will be needed by 2050 Exacerbating factors:
Climate Change Population growth Consumption patterns
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Action is urgent! But business as usual is not working. A nexus approach can enhance security by:
• increasing efficiency • reducing trade-offs • building synergies • improving governance across sectors
Understanding the NEXUS
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Water for Food
Challenge: The World is Thirsty
Because it is Hungry
Responses: • New water resources: Non-conventional waters • Water harvesting • Increase water productivity: more crop per drop • Save food: save water • Shift consumption patters
It takes on average 3000 liters of water to produce the food needed to feed one person for one day.
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Energy and Food
Challenges: • Climate change mitigation and access
to clean energy • Decouple agriculture productivity from fossil
fuel intensification
Responses: • Energy-smart food • Save food: save energy • Shift consumption patters
Around 1/3 of total end-use energy is consumed by the Agri-Food chain 1/3 of this energy is lost as food wastage
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Energy and Water
Challenges: • Substitute part of fossil fuels consumption
with sustainable energy
Responses: • Ensure bioenergy and biofuels sustainability
mainstreaming production practices for bioenergy feedstock cultivation
• Sustainable management of hydropower resources
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Examples of NEXUS applications
Micro irrigation Solar pump
Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES) Bio-refinery concept
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Recent work on the Nexus 1/2
• How to establish a nexus between land, water, food, energy and wealth? Resource accounting in sustainability assessments
• We tried to do it testing a multi-scale integrated approach able to capture internal constraints (MuSIASEM approach): – Mauritius (sugarcane production and diversion to biofuels)
– Punjab (grain production and over exploitment of underground aquifers)
– South Africa (biomass and CHP as alternatives to coal power)
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Recent work on the Nexus 2/2
• Technical workshop MOVING AHEAD TO IMPLEMENT THE NEXUS APPROACH
held at FAO headquarters | 5-6 March 2013 – Validate the work done so far
– Present and discuss interesting tools that could be part of a Nexus Package
– Discussing next steps
with the participation of SEI, QEERI, GIZ, UK DECC/DFID, IAEA, KTH, WBCSD, European Commission, FAO among others.
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The accounting framework • MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem
Metabolism)
• It is an accounting method capable of keeping coherence in quantitative information referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis with data organized in conventional databases or in GIS
• Pre-analytical step based on semantic definition of “what the system is” (fund elements) and “what the system does” (required functions)
• Ideally consistent with UN-SEEA
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Slide 7
An example of flows and funds
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CONSUMPTION FLOWS FUNDS
FOOD (PJ-NFS)
ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
VALUE ADDED
(million US$)
HUMAN ACTIVITY (million hr)
POWER CAPACITY (MW-GER)
LAND USE (ha)
HH (n-1) 5.9 15 84 N/A 10,197 10,812 28,070 PW (n-1) N/A 39 409 8,658 1,273 2,785 102,564
SG (n-2) N/A 7.9 15 5,178 680 960 N/A TR (n-2) N/A 13 1.5 826 92 627 N/A BM (n-2) N/A 16 23 2,158 409 1,093 N/A AG (n-2) N/A 0.35 112 316 83 35 20,516 EM (n-2) N/A 2.1 258 180 8.5 70 negligible LOSSES 2.1 1.2 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
WHOLE (n) 8.0 56 1,700 N/A 11,469 13,596 102,564 EXPORTS negligible 0 1,100 5,130 N/A N/A 53,978
SUPPLY IMPORTS 6.7 48 1,600 6,235 N/A N/A 211,466
EM N/A 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AG 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20,516
Slide 8
As diagnostic tool
Household Consumption Carb. Prot. Fat 3.6 0.7 1.6 (PJ/year)
URBAN Carb. Prot. Fat 1.5 0.3 0.7 (PJ/year)
RURAL Carb. Prot. Fat 2.1 0.4 0.9 (PJ/year)
Tourists Carb. Prot. Fat 0.07 0.01 0.03 (PJ/year)
Women Carb. Prot. Fat 0.7 0.1 0.3 (PJ/year)
Men Carb. Prot. Fat 0.8 0.2 0.4 (PJ/year)
*: numbers may not add up due to rounding
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Final Consumption
LOSSES
Invested in Food Production
Multi-Level Grammars
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moving across levels using GRAMMARS
Invested in Food Production
LOSSES
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Linking data about rate of flows (per hour) to data about density of flows (per hectare)
CONSUMPTION FLOWS FUNDS
FOOD (PJ-NFS)
ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
VALUE ADDED
(million US$)
HUMAN ACTIVITY (million hr)
POWER CAPACITY (MW-GER)
LAND USE (ha)
HH (n-1) 5.9 15 98 N/A 10,197 10,812 28,070 PW (n-1) N/A 39 1,608 8,658 1,273 2,785 102,873
SG (n-2) N/A 7.9 17 5,178 680 960 N/A TR (n-2) N/A 13 2 826 92 627 N/A BM (n-2) N/A 16 27 2,158 409 1,093 N/A AG (n-2) N/A 0.35 1,300 316 83 35 74,494 EM (n-2) N/A 2.1 262 180 8.5 70 negligible LOSSES 2.1 1.2 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SA (n) 8.0 56 1,706 N/A 11,469 13,596 102,564
EXPORTS negligible 0 1,827 5,130 N/A N/A 53,978
SUPPLY IMPORTS 6.7 48 3,281 6,235 N/A N/A 211,466
EM N/A 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AG 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20,516
Example Mauritius (2010)
LOCAL PRODUCTION
Tonnes Ha CARB PROT FAT FOOD ENERGY
Cereals, Roots & pulses
26,312 1,880 0.094 0.010 0.004 0.108
Animal products
71,380 7,000 0.004 0.161 0.209 0.374
Vegetables &fruits
109,283 5,639 0.101 0.011 0.007 0.119
Oil crops 5,484 214 0.003 0.002 0.118 0.123
Others 364,910 5,782 0.594 0.001 0.003 0.598
TOTAL 577,369 20,515 0.796 0.185 0.341 1.322
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Slide 15
Water Grammar
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Climatic zones
Crop land Supply systems (administrative)
Land Uses Water accounting requires Land Use analysis and GIS
Slide 16
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FLOWS
exports
consumption & investment
FOOD (PJ-NFS)
imports
exports supply
imports
LAND FLOW/FUND ratios EMR
(MJ-GER/hr) WMR
(hm3/Mhr) ELP
(US$/hr) WMD
(m3/ha) ELD
(US$/ha) EMD
(GJ-GER/ha) HIGH HIGH
LOW
500
1,800
0.1
> 5.0 > 50
1
204,000 ha
Mauritius (2010)* ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
GDP (billion US$)
negl.
1.3
6.6
7.2
48
8.0
*: numbers may not add up due to
rounding
56
-1,700
1,700
1,700
5.1
-6.2
9.8
11
LOW
Managed 50%
6.6 0.29 7.7 540 33,000 95,000
0
990 11 0.08
1,700
POPULATION
1,280,000
71% age 15-64
FUNDS
PRODUCTION FACTORS
Labor Technical Capital Arable Land hrs/yr p.c. ha p.c. kW p.c.
Density of flows per ha
Rate of flows per hour
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Level n Whole society
Level n-1 Household sector
8,760
7,825
work force
Population structure of Japan
In China the economy has 1 hr of work out of 5 hrs of human activity!
In Italy the economy has 1 hr of work out of 13 hrs of human activity!
Human Activity (hrs p.c./y)
The importance of demographic variables Human Activity in Paid Work (hrs p.c./y)
935
Spain, 2010
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DEMAND FOOD (PJ-NFS)
ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
VALUE ADDED (million US$)
HUMAN ACTIVITY
(million hr)
LAND USE (ha)
POWER CAPACITY
(GW)
HH (n-1) 5.9 15 84 N/A 10,000 28,000 11 PW (n-1) N/A 39 409 8,700 1,200 74,500 2.78 SG (n-2) N/A 8 15 5,200 680 N/A 0.96 TR (n-2) N/A 13 1.5 800 92 N/A 0.63 BM (n-2) N/A 16 23 2,200 410 N/A 1.09 AG (n-2) N/A 0 110 300 50 20,500 0.04 EM (n-2) N/A 2 260 180 8 negligible 0.07 LOSSES 2.1 1 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
WHOLE (n) 8.0 56 1,700 N/A 11,500 102,500 14.00 EXPORTS (n-2) negligible 0 1,100 5,100 33 54,000 N/A
SUPPLY IMPORTS 6.7 48 1,600 6,200 N/A 211,500 N/A EM N/A 7.17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AG 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20,500 N/A
Moving the vector of production factors of sugarcane from “exports” to “EM”
1,100 33 54,000
Exports of Sugar = 4% of GAV using 90% of water
As Simulator Tool
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Consequences of moving the vector from AG to EM
DEMAND FOOD (PJ-NFS)
ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
VALUE ADDED (million US$)
HUMAN ACTIVITY
(million hr)
LAND USE (ha)
POWER CAPACITY
(GW)
HH (n-1) 5.9 15 84 N/A 10,197 28,000 11 PW (n-1) N/A 39 1,515 8,658 1,273 74,500 3 SG (n-2) N/A 7.9 15 5,178 680 N/A 1 TR (n-2) N/A 13 1 826 92 N/A 1 BM (n-2) N/A 15 23 1,500 403 N/A 1 AG (n-2) N/A 0.26 110 217 49 15,800 0 EM (n-2) N/A 2.5 1,360 310 48 58,700 0 LOSSES 2.1 1.2 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
WHOLE (n) 8 56 1,700 N/A 11,469 102,500 14 EXPORTS negligible 0 0 4,900 N/A negligible N/A
SUPPLY IMPORTS 6.7 40 1,600 6,094 N/A 211,466 N/A EM N/A 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AG 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20,516 N/A
MuSIASEM as a simulator tool: Moving from Sugar to Biofuel (same cropping pattern)
- 8 PJ = - 5% of energy imports using 90% of water
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Example: Transition from a cropping pattern based on sugar cane to another cropping pattern
Step 2: Selection of location of cropland according to soil and slope constraints.
Sugar Cane Types of Soil Slope
Step 1: Selection of other crops according to main food needs.
Check of Previous Locations
+ Compatibility with soils
Slope compatibility + Spatial location of an
alternative crop mix
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Transition from a cropping pattern based on sugar cane to another cropping pattern
Scenarios in Mauritius
Changing the geographical distribution of the pattern of water metabolism
Current pattern of CWR Scenario 2 pattern of CWR
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Facing internal constraints: new crop mix is incompatible with the profile of HA
DEMAND FOOD (PJ-NFS)
ENERGY (PJ-GER)
WATER (hm3-GWR)
VALUE ADDED (million US$)
HUMAN ACTIVITY
(million hr)
LAND USE (ha)
POWER CAPACITY
(GW)
HH (n-1) 5.9 15 84 N/A 10197 (!) 28,070 11 PW (n-1) N/A 39 540 8266 (!) 1273 (!) 127,092 3 SG (n-2) N/A 8 15 4302 (!) 680 (!) N/A 1 TR (n-2) N/A 13 1 707 (!) 92 (!) N/A 1 BM (n-2) N/A 16 23 1789 (!) 409 (!) N/A 1 AG (n-2) N/A 0 240 1,256 280 99,022 0 EM (n-2) N/A 2 260 212 (!) 8 (!) negligible 0 LOSSES 2.1 1 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
WHOLE (n) 8 56 730 N/A 11,469 127,092 14 EXPORTS negligible 0 200 5,197 N/A N/A
SUPPLY IMPORTS 5.3 48 480 5,648 N/A 211,466 N/A EM N/A 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AG 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20,516 N/A
Transition from a cropping pattern based on sugar cane to another cropping pattern
MuSIASEM as a simulator tool: scenarios in Mauritius
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Strength of MuSIASEM • It establishes coherence in quantitative Multi-criteria and Multi-scales analysis providing a holistic representation of the situation across dimensions and levels of organization • The mosaic effect across levels and dimensions provides a quality check on the data and makes it possible to infer information in the case of data gaps • Can be tailored on specific situations and can be complemented by engineering-based input-output tools
• Can be developed and used within participatory frameworks and processes such as Sustainable Livelihoods and the Ecosystem Approach
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Further work needed / Next steps • identifying typologies of tools that can be part of a ‘nexus support
package’ for policy-making at country and project level + typologies of countries, tailored at specific ‘nexus’ inter-linkages to be addressed.
• developing a rapid appraisal nexus assessment tool, able to highlight in a quick and simple way where criticalities are and those nexus aspects that would deserve a deeper analysis (possibly by applying the full ‘nexus support package’)
• strengthening links between accounting frameworks for nexus assessments and the UN-SEEA process.
• improve sharing of information and coordination in implementing a ‘nexus’ approach.