An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington
StateMarketa McGuire ElsnerUniversity of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
In cooperation with: Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
March 5, 2008Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008
Climate science in the public interest
OutlinOutlinee
• Background of WA State climate impacts assessment
• Project framework (sneak preview of results)
• Project objectives
• Relationship between impacts assessment another state climate change initiative
Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment
Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303
Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website:http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx
HB 1303 HB 1303 BackgroundBackground
• Legislation signed by Washington Governor in Spring 2007
• Bill’s goal is to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy via:– Policies and incentive programs to help
businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels
– Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as climate changes
Human Health
Agriculture/Economics
SalmonSalmonForest ResourcesForest Resources
Coasts EnergyEnergy
Infrastructure
Water ResourcesWater Resources
A comprehensive A comprehensive state climate change state climate change
assessment that assessment that includes the impacts includes the impacts
of global warmingof global warming
AdaptatioAdaptation / Legal n / Legal BarriersBarriers
Project Project DomainDomain
Conceptual Approach to Assessment
• Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts:
• The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other
Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.
• Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next century– use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios
– show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change
– characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law School
– provide tools for policy makers and user groups
– collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team
To be completed December 2008To be completed December 2008
Goals of the Impacts AssessmentGoals of the Impacts Assessment
Data Needs to Support a 21Data Needs to Support a 21stst Century Century Planning Framework Incorporating Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and UncertaintyClimate Information and Uncertainty
2 EmissionsScenarios
20 GCMs2
DownscalingApproaches
X X
IPCC Climate Scenarios
Hydrology Modeling
Approach provides ensemble of
variables that can be used to evaluate
impacts of climate change
• Precipitation
• Air Temperature
• Streamflow
• Soil Moisture
• PET
• VPD
• And more!
10.8°F
14.4°F
Changes relative to 1970-1999
7.2°F
3.6°F
0°F
+2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF)
+3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF)
+5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF)
°CProjected Increases in PNW Projected Increases in PNW TemperatureTemperature
Projected Increases in PNW Projected Increases in PNW PrecipitationPrecipitation
Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints
• Hydrology/Water Resources– Impacts to rivers and response of
state’s physical water management infrastructure
– Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest (related project)
• Energy– Impacts to hydropower production
(Columbia River) and regional heating & cooling degree days
• Salmon– Productivity of State’s streams for
salmonids – Regions and conditions under which
salmonid habitat is most vulnerable
• Agriculture/Economics– Impacts on productivity and
sustainability of State’s agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree fruits, grapes, potatoes)
• Forests– Impacts to growth and productivity
of forests and their susceptibility to fire and insect disturbance
• Coasts– Impacts of sea level rise on
structures (inundation and flooding)
– Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches
Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints
• Infrastructure– Impacts on vulnerable
elements of civil infrastructure (stormwater systems)
– Consider precipitation variability and flood frequency/magnitude
• Health– Impacts of ozone and
particulate matter on childhood asthma
– Heat stress and potential increases in mortality
Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints
Relationship between Relationship between Impacts Assessment Impacts Assessment
and Washington State and Washington State Climate InitiativeClimate Initiative
• Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions
• Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation
Draft recommendations CompleteDraft recommendations CompleteFinal report FebruaryFinal report February 20082008
Relationship between Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 PAWGs and HB1303 SectorsSectors
HighlightsHighlights
• Washington State supports climate change study and linkages between science and decision-making.
• Integrated assessment approach which connects climate predictions to hydrology and other impact sectors.
Climate science in the public interest
The Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.ed/cig
Marketa McGuire [email protected]
More information on the Climate Impacts Group or WA State Climate Impacts Assessment
