Download - Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16 th December 2009
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Angus CouncilHousing Need & Demand
AssessmentSteering Group Meeting
16th December 2009
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Aims of Session1. To detail methodology for
disaggregating the requirement for affordable housing
2. To review disaggregated model outcomes
3. To agree assumptions for projections: future housing need/supply
4. To agree structure and presentation of final report
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Baseline Housing Need Calculation for
Affordable Housing
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Plus
Current NeedX (a quota)
Newly Arising Need
Minus
Equals
Supply ofAffordable
HousingNet Shortfall/
Surplus
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Current Need: Unsuitable Housing• Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175• Concealed Households: 219• Overcrowding: 779• Special Needs: 3,194• Poor Condition: 428• Harassment: 127Current Need = 4,922
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Total Current Need – Eliminate:• ‘In situ solutions’:
Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514
• Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242Then eliminate• % can meet need in private housing market
52% households can meet market entry price
Net Current Need = 2,206
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Newly Arising Need• New household formation: 771
Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%)
• Existing households falling into need: 724 Change in household circumstances including
annual flow of homeless households
Newly Arising Estimate = 1,248
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Affordable Housing Supply• Affordable housing relets: 1,075• Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of
management: 0 demolitions• Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922
Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)
• Annual newly arising need = 1,248• Annual total need = 1,469• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -344• 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,440
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Disaggregated Calculation for
Affordable Housing
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Projecting Future NeedAggregated Housing Needs Analysis:– assumes the current profile of housing supply can
meet the type of need identified– assumes need is met over 5 year periodDisaggregated Analysis:− determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’− detailed match of households to homes by size,
area, property type and tenure− assesses if annual need is met by supply and
extent to which backlog can be reduced− identifies length of time to address backlog− provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/
surplus to inform strategic planning
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Matched to
Residual Supply
Residual Backlog
Annual Newly Arising Need
Area
Size
Type
Annual Supply
Area
Size
Type
Backlog Housing Need
Area
Size
Type
Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated
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Model Overview •Disaggregated Methodology•Model Assumptions
BacklogNewly Arising NeedSupply
•Model Outputs•Key Questions
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Base Assumptions• The model is based on the 3
components of the aggregated HNADA calculation Backlog figure Newly arising need figure Supply figure
• 10 year projections model• Data input by HMA, Size, Type
• 4 Housing Market Areas North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), East HMA (Arbroath), South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)
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Base Assumptions• Size: Bedrooms 1 to 5 • Property Type
General Needs Special Needs
• Wheelchair• Accommodation without Stairs• Sheltered• Supported
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Base Assumptions• Input by 7 components of need and split by
area and size based on analysis of survey or council datasets• Homeless Households = 136• Insecure Tenure = 39• Concealed Households = 219• Overcrowding = 779• Special Housing: net of in-situ solutions = 2,514 • Poor Quality = 428• Harassment = 127TOTAL = 4,242
• Facility in model to input projected increase/decreases on base assumptions
• Affordability outcomes applied by HMA
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Housing AffordabilityDisaggregated Outcomes by HMA
Net Backlog of Current Need (Angus) = 2,121 Net Backlog of Current Need (4 HMA) = 2,212 New Formers Affordability (Angus) = 524 New Formers Affordability (4 HMA) = 461
HMA
Lower Quartile
Price 2008
Backlog Affordability
NAN Affordability
Arbroath 80,000 49% 68%Brechin 82,875 44% 51%Carnoustie 133,000 61% 65%Forfar 94,000 54% 59%Angus 93,000 50% 68%
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Newly Arising Need Assumptions
• New Formation – split by area, size and type based on survey data = 771 Assumption : All General Needs Affordability Factor : applied by HMA Facility to increase/decrease per annum
• Homelessness input by area, size and type based on analysis of HL1 dataset = 724 Assumption : All General Needs? Increase p.a. according to 2012 target
• 724 = 2008/09 (85% priority assessment)• Increased to 100% (2009/10 – 2012/13)
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Supply Assumptions• Council & RSL stock calculation, split by
HMA, size and type• Adjusted for long term voids and units
taken out of management• Council & RSL relet rate established by
area and type based on turnover analysis Applied to stock to translate into annual
supply of affordable dwellings by area, size and type
Facility to model increase/decrease in supply and turnover rate
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Baseline Year Supply Assumptions
• Total Affordable Stock = 10,866 Angus Council = 7,817 RSL’s = 3,049 units
• Adjusted for RTB Projections 31 units per annum (average 2009-19) AC HRA Business Plan assumptions
• Adjusted for demolitions = 0• Turnover rate by HMA/type applied to
stock to produce vacancies Angus Council Ave for GN stock = 7% RSL Ave for GN stock 6%
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Baseline Year Supply Assumptions
New Affordable Housing Supply • Based on TAYplan assumptions
Based on AHIP budget and £74k cost per unitReduction in AHIP of 25% from 2009/10 levelProjected over 10 years
• 49 units per annum• Split new housing by area, size and type as
per the current stock profile• Relet rate based on 50% of the average RSL
rate (3%)
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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes
• Year 1: 2,439 households have unmet need• Year 5: 3,228 households have unmet need• Year 10: 4,399 households have unmet
needHeadlines at Year 5• Shortfall of affordable housing highest in
South (-1,605) & West (-1,339) HMA’s• Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4
bedroom properties: (-1,188) (35%)• 85% of shortfall is in General Needs housing• 15% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing
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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Drivers in Increasing Shortfall
• Baseline backlog current need = -2,277• Average annual shortfall = -193
Minimum shortfall = - 53 (baseline year) Maximum shortfall = -238 (Year 10)
• Annual shortfalls increase as a result of: Increasing number of annual homeless households Reducing stock numbers
• Cumulative annual shortfall = -2,122• Backlog + total annual shortfall = -4,399
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size
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HNADA Conclusions –Key Issues
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Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues • There are significant differences in market
housing demand between HMA’s Demand concentrated in the South HMA
• Since 2007 there has been a significant drop in the level of sales activity within the market (30%)For modelling purposes, it is anticipated that
the market will to its 2007 level by Year 10• The evidence supports the view that by 2019
there will be a shortfall of over 6,000 market dwellings throughout Angus
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Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues
• Difficult to predict the likely pattern of market recovery the evidence suggests that high quality market housing for older households is likely to be a robust market sector
• Given the assumptions used within the model the land requirement for market housing can be assessed by: (Known current land bank) – (land requirement for
assumed level of new build within model (290 units)) + (land requirement to meet unmet need of 6,000 households)
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Recommendations• The number of households in need does
NOT equal number of units to be delivered• Need could be met through range of
interventions programmed though LHS: developing partnerships with the private
rented sector; tackling private sector disrepair; using assistive technology to promote
independence in older people; tackling and preventing homelessness; making better use of the current affordable
and private stock; developing flexible tenure options; and increasing housing supply.
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Tackling Homelessness
2012 Target
Local Need
Providing Housing Support
Assessment
Local Need
Fuel Poverty Strategy
Climate Change
ChallengeLocal Actions
Private SectorHousing
Enforcement
SOA
Local Duty
Meeting Housing Need & Demand
Housing Supply Target
Housing MarketArea Evidence
Local DeliveryRole of PRS in Meeting Need
Achieving Sustainable Communities
SHIP
Local Housing Strategy
Investment DirectionDevelopment Plan Link
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Recommendations• AC should prepare an action plan
quantify potential impact of each intervention
set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need
• Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting
• This process should consider land capacity development industry capacity availability of development funding corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement