Appendix
A-1 Persons and Organizations Concerned
Details of Technical Working Group
Group Leader (Chair Person)-Power Development Planning Group (Technical) Leader-Power Development Planning
Group Secretary-Power Development Planning
Engr. E.O Ajayi, Director (ERD), FMP Mr. Masatsugu Komiya, JICA Team
Mr. Austin O. Abegunde, DD (P) FMP
Mr. Makoto Abe, JICA TeamGroup Coordinator
Dr. Sunday Owolobi, ACE (ERD) FMP
* 〇:Main Counterparts
Group (Technical) Coordinator-Power Development Planning
A-1 The Persons and
Organizations C
oncerned
Transmission/Substation planning
/Power system analysisPower Demand Forecast Power generation planning
(Thermal power development) Power sector policy
Primary energy analysis Power generation planning(Hydro power development) Economic and financial analysis Environmental and social
considerations
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Kyoji FujiiJICA Team :Mr. Takeshi HaraFMP :Engr. Eugene EjeregbeFMP :Engr. Anikpe Kenechukwu JosiahTCN :Engr. Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Tomoyuki InoueFMP :Dr. Sunday Owolabi (ERD)TCN :Engr. Ishola B. A. (NCC)TCN :Engr. Ikeli H. N. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Charles Nnajide (NCC)TCN :Engr. Obishai F. N. (MO)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Sudipto BhowmikJICA Team :Mr. Kazuaki KondoFMP :Engr. Philip Okpanefe (TSD)TCN :Engr. Abba-Aliyu (Planning)TCN :Engr. A. Nazif (Planning)TCN :Engr. E. C. Umoh (NCC)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Ms. Izumi TakaiFMP :Mr. A.A. Ayodele (TSD)FMP :Engr. Abel Philipele (RRD)ECN :Engr. J. S. OlayandeECN :Mr. Sulu B. F. IbrahimTCN :Anumaka, Corporate Plan.TCN :Paul Ilondu, Corporate Plan.
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Hideki OtakeFMP :Engr. Eneh Kingsley (ERD) ECN :Engr. J. S. OlayandeECN :Mr. Sulu B. F. IbrahimTCN :Engr. Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Kaoru NishiwakiFMP :Engr. O.T, Owoeye (ERD)TCN :Engr.Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Yusuke HaradaFMP :Mr. S.A. Dashi (P)FMP :Engr. Ben Ayangeaor (ERD)TCN :Engr. Abolomope R. O. (AC)TCN :Engr. Ajibade M. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Ogbu B. C. (MO)
[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Ms. Yuriko KudoFMP :Engr. Tony Umenyen (TSD)FMP :Engr. Ekanem Effiong (DSD)TCN :Olisa M. Okoli (HSE)TCN :Ifeoma Nwachukwu (HSE)
[Assistance necessary from]NDPHC, NERC, TCN-SO, NBET, NNPC, Gencos, ISAP
[Assistance necessary from]TCN-SO, TCN-MO, Gencos, Discos,NERC, REA, ISAP
[Assistance necessary from]NDPHC, TCN-SO, PTFP
[Assistance necessary from]ECN, NERC, NBET, BPE, NOTAP, PTFP, ICRC
[Assistance necessary from]ECN, NNPC, NGC, NAEC, FMARD, FMMSD, FMW, NIMET
[Assistance necessary from]FMW, TCN-SO, NERC, NBET, ISAP
[Assistance necessary from]NPC-1, NERC, NBET, NGC, TCN-TSP, NBS, NPC-2, FMF, CBN
[Assistance necessary from]FME, NESRA, NPC-2, TCN
A-1-1
CBN: Central Bank of NigeriaDiscos: Distribution CompaniesDSD: Distribution Services Department (FMP)ECN: Energy Commission of NigeriaERD: Energy Resources Department (FMP)FMARD: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentFME: Federal Ministry of EnvironmentFMF: Federal Ministry of FinanceFMMSD: Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel DevelopmentFMP: Federal Ministry of PowerFMW: Federal Ministry of Water ResourcesGnenos: Generation CompaniesGP D&C: Generation Planning and Data Control (TCN)ICRC: Infrastructure Concession Regulatory CommissionISAP: Initial Stakeholder Advisory PanelNAEC: Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission NBET: Nigeria Bulk Electricity TradingNBS: National Bureau of StatisticsNDPHC: Niger Delta Power Holding CompanyNERC: National Electricity Regulatory CommissionNESRA: National Environmental standards & Regulations Enforcement Agency NGC: Nigerian Gas Company LimitedNIMET: Nigerian Meteorological AgencyNNPC: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation NOTAP: National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion (Ministry of Science and Technology) NPC-1: National Planning CommissionNPC-2: National Population CommissionPTFP: Presidential Task Force on PowerREA: Rural Electrification AgencyRRD: Renewable and Rural Power Access Department (FMP)TCN: Transmission Company of NigeriaTCN-MO: TCN-Market OperationTCN-SO: TCN-System OperationTCN-TSP: TCN-Transmission Service ProviderTSD: Transmission Services Department (FMP)
Annex-
1 T
he P
erso
ns an
d O
rganizatio
ns C
oncern
ed
A-1-2
A-2 PPA Price of GenCo and IPP
and Nominal Tariff of DisCo
A-2 PPA Price of GenCo and IPP and Nominal Tariff of DisCo
PPA Price of GenCo and IPP
発電所 料金種別 単位 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SUCCESSOR GenCo HYDRO
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,571.33 4,739.84 4,456.76 4,677.21 4,677.59 4,677.59 4,677.59 4,677.59
Energy price NGN/MWh 1,005.67 1,043.28 994.40 1,069.52 1,070.49 1,070.49 1,070.49 1,070.49
SUCCESSOR GenCo THERMAL
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,327.81 4,068.21 4,267.25 4,267.53 4,267.53 4,267.53 4,267.53
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,645.19 6,418.71 7,637.69 7,847.14 8,062.47 8,285.92 8,517.78
OMOTOSHO
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,783.00 5,057.35 5,092.30 5,129.06 5,138.69 5,148.44
Energy price NGN/MWh 4,956.00 5,887.21 6,129.11 6,381.15 6,581.48 6,788.84
OLORUNSOGO
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,783.00 5,057.35 5,092.30 5,129.06 5,138.69 5,148.44
Energy price NGN/MWh 4,956.00 5,887.21 6,129.11 6,381.15 6,581.48 6,788.84
NIPP THERMAL
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,336.51 4,077.36 4,274.25 4,279.83 4,285.51 4,291.30 4,297.18
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,706.29 6,482.96 7,686.84 7,933.57 8,188.82 8,452.90 8,726.14
AGIP OKPAI
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,042.40 4,345.48 3,831.93 4,200.15 4,200.15 4,200.15 4,200.15 4,200.15
Energy price NGN/MWh 1,222.50 1,333.08 1,185.85 1,311.31 1,323.02 1,334.95 1,347.09 1,359.45
AFAM VI
Capacity price NGN/MW 3,576.22 3,844.35 3,390.02 3,715.78 3,715.78 3,715.78 3,715.78 3,715.78
Energy price NGN/MWh 1,357.79 1,469.74 1,301.57 1,432.81 1,439.09 1,445.48 1,451.99 1,458.62
IBOM POWER
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,336.51 4,077.36 4,274.25 4,279.83 4,285.51 4,291.30 4,297.18
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,706.29 6,482.96 7,686.84 7,933.57 8,188.82 8,452.90 8,726.14
OMOKU
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,336.51 4,077.36 4,274.25 4,279.83 4,285.51 4,291.30 4,297.18
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,706.29 6,482.96 7,686.84 7,933.57 8,188.82 8,452.90 8,726.14
AES
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,365.42 4,526.11 4,250.26 4,449.78 4,449.78 4,449.78 4,449.78 4,449.78
Energy price NGN/MWh
TRANS AMADI
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,336.51 4,077.36 4,274.25 4,279.83 4,285.51 4,291.30 4,297.18
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,706.29 6,482.96 7,686.84 7,933.57 8,188.82 8,452.90 8,726.14
RIVERS IPP
Capacity price NGN/MW 4,174.00 4,336.51 4,303.00 4,494.68 4,502.30 4,510.05 4,517.95 4,525.98
Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,706.29 6,755.59 8,705.49 8,973.62 9,251.02 9,538.03 9,834.98
A-2-1
Nominal Tariff of DisCo
(NGN/MWh) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 Abuja 5,674.62 4,728.01 4,715.69 7,845.89 8,160.99 8,709.53 9,281.45 9,872.81
2 Benin 6,217.67 5,118.44 4,973.61 8,236.07 8,380.88 8,909.50 9,469.09 10,052.47
3 Enugu 6,069.57 5,015.83 4,920.75 8,167.05 8,383.36 8,943.43 9,532.41 10,143.95
4 Ibadan 7,161.95 5,923.00 5,798.89 9,763.89 10,082.92 10,806.63 11,568.95 12,362.95
5 Jos 6,714.11 5,552.06 5,452.62 9,243.31 9,624.66 10,345.79 11,097.09 11,873.00
6 Kaduna 6,977.06 5,691.26 5,542.81 9,229.21 9,511.32 10,093.63 10,702.27 11,331.54
7 Kano 5,355.13 4,440.28 4,457.95 7,361.71 7,711.27 8,233.95 8,773.01 9,324.94
8 Eko 5,788.03 4,831.24 4,766.20 8,140.28 8,513.34 9,196.81 9,905.22 10,633.83
9 Ikeja 4,504.32 3,834.59 3,823.86 6,597.97 6,948.80 7,570.30 8,210.59 8,865.91
10 Port Harcourt 6,368.04 5,226.33 5,174.24 8,585.09 8,927.03 9,504.00 10,102.30 10,717.50
11 Yola 7,140.64 5,873.62 5,917.75 9,649.02 10,061.09 10,753.78 11,479.56 12,232.01
12 Total 6,021.51 4,993.60 4,927.92 8,264.39 8,576.42 9,189.78 9,829.42 10,490.13
A-2-2
A-3 Nigeria Power System
(Existing and Planning for 2040)
A-3-1
A-4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
4th September 2015 1ST JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE
( INCEPTION WORKSHOP )
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-1
TIME TABLE FOR 1ST JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE (INCEPTION
WORKSHOP) ON THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON
NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
VENUE: MINISTER’S CONFERENCE ROOM
PLACE: 4TH FLOOR, FEDERAL MINISTRY OF POWER FEDERAL SECRETARIAT
DATE: 4TH SEPTEMBER, 2015.
[General Session]
Time Event/Activity Action by
10:00-10:10 Opening Remarks
from the Federal Ministry of Power
PS-FMP
10:10-10:20 Introduction All
10:20-10:30 Key note address Chief Representative–
JICA Nigeria Office
10:30-10:40 Outline of the Project Mr. Masatsugu Komiya,
Mr. Makoto Abe
10:40-10:55 General discussion All
10:55-11:00 Closing remarks PS-FMP
[Technical Session]
Time Event/Activity Action by
11:30-11:40 Opening Remarks
from Federal Ministry of Power
Director, ERD-FMP
11:40-11:50 Introduction All
~Presentation by JICA Team~
11:50-12:00 Power Demand Forecasts JICA Team
12:00-12:10 Power Generation Planning JICA Team
12:10-12:20 System Planning and System Analysis JICA Team
12:20-12:30 Environmental and Social
Considerations
JICA Team
12:30-12:55 General discussion All
12:55-13:00 Closing remarks Director, ERD-FMP
Note:
FMP- Federal Ministry of Power, PS- Permanent Secretary, ERD- Energy Resources
TCN- Transmission Company of Nigeria, MD- Managing Director, SO – System Operations,
MO – Market Operations
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-2
1
Record of Discussion
Project The Project for Master Plan Study on National Power System Development in the
Federal Republic of Nigeria (The First Field Work)
Venue 4th floor, Conference Room, Federal Ministry of Power, Federal Secretariat
Date 4 September, 2015 (Fri) 10:00-13:00
Attendance FMP, JICA, JICA Team, TCN, WB,
UNIDO, FME, NAPTIN, AFD,
USAID,
Refer to the Attendance List
【Contents】
The 1st JCC was opened by Permanent Secretary’s (PS) remarks. PS emphasized importance of
power sector development and appreciation of assistance from JICA and other donors related to the
power sector.
After JICA Chief Representative presented a key note address to the invitee, presentations by the
team were performed.
Points of discussions made among the parties are followings;
1. Outline of the Project
- Through the presentation, the team emphasized the importance of information sharing and
coordination among the stakeholders for comprehensive power system development in Nigeria.
- The WB agreed collaboration with the captioned project not only the transmission master plan
but also Hydro project and Gas Supply projects.
- PS emphasized that the expected peak demand is approx. 12,500MW and the key authority is
TCN. Furthermore PS suggested that NCC should be in better position related to acknowledge
the peak demand.
2. Power Demand Forecast
(1) Regarding the relation between Power system M/P and GHG
Q What kinds of countermeasures are considered for the reduction of GHG emission and
woods and charcoal consumption in the power system master plan
A Regarding woods and charcoal consumption reduction, the consumption has the strong
relation to deforestation. Most of the developing countries have some limitation to use
woods and charcoal. As substitution energies, the promotion of LPG and coal briquette can
be considered. In our model, the woods and charcoal consumption should be reduced.
(2) Regarding comparison between SimpleE model and FMP power demand model
Q FMP has a power demand forecasting model. Is it possible to compare SimpleE model and
FMP power demand model? And how much cost SimpleE software.
A We can compare the two models completely. The cost of simple E is around 200USD per a
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-3
2
【Contents】
set. The software is established by The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
(3) Regarding methodology of demand forecasting
Q As demand forecasting approach, there is Top down approach and Bottom up approach.
Which one is SimpleE?
A In Simple E model, the country wise power demand forecasts is implemented under social
economic strategies, therefore, it can be said as Top down approach. Other hand, DISCO
wise power demand forecasts are implemented accumulatively based on DISCO plans.
Therefore, it is bottom up approach. In the case, it is important how to get the data and
information from DISCOs.
(4) Regarding input and output data
Q Explain the input data and output data in Data sheet, Model sheet and Simulation sheet.
A The all data in data sheet are input data, however, the back color values in simulation sheet
are input data and the red color values are forecasted values. The red color values are
calculated internally in the model.
(5) Regarding technical transfer on power demand model
Q How to implement the technical transfer?
A According to my experiences in the similar projects, the technical transfer was implemented
for four days. We were required 4 hours a day from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM. The all members
had their PCs and the seminar was in hand on style.
3. Power System Development Master Plan
(1) Explanation Summary (detail is referred to the presentation paper)
1) Flow Chart of Power System Development Planning for preparation of Power System
Development Master Plan is shown below, it is very important to coordinate among various
fields such as power demand forecast, primary energy policy, generation and network
development plan, power system analysis, economic efficiency and environmental impact of
power plant candidate sites, financial condition and power development policy.
2) The long term power system development plan is established for the coming 25
years by the least cost analysis method. The power plant candidate sites and
network system are evaluated from economic and financial aspects. The
evaluation results are reflected into the generation and network development
plan. The generation and network development planning is carried out by
using least cost method.
3) In this chart, the generation and network development plan should be drafted in
harmony with many fields, such as demand forecasts, power system analyses,
and selection of power plant candidates, network system, financial condition and
power development policy.
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-4
3
【Contents】
4) Therefore, the generation and network development planning is conducted
through close contact and discussions with the counterparts and good
coordination among the related working groups.
5) The scenarios are determined based on the analyses and examinations of the
actual power generation records and the actual demand and supply balance
under the constraints and conditions.
6) Nigeria has to develop ten times capacity as much as existing power plants for
the coming 25 years in order to meet the rapid growing demand. In other
words, it is necessary to develop power plants of as much as 2,200MW every
year.
7) Therefore, all necessary power plants cannot be invested and owned by FGN.
Some of the power plants will need to be developed through other approaches
such as IPP (domestic investors) and BOT (foreign investors), which options has
already taken place in thermal power. Since some projects might not be
developed in time, the mitigation measures of power shortage due to project
delay should be considered in Master Plan. Generally, the new power plant site
should be developed considering additional room of expansion of the plant in
order to cope with the delay of power development and/or the higher than
expected growth of power demand.
8) Fuel price with its hikes are set referring to the Nigerian long-term primary
energy development plans and international market prices of oil, coal and gas.
9) The economic power system operation is simulated and fed back to the economic,
social and environmental consideration study in order to clarify feasibility of
each power plant development. The simulation is repeated, changing
preconditions based on the results of evaluation of preconditions. Thus, the
most economic scenario, best fuel mix of power sources, and long-term power
development pattern are determined through Master Plan study by the
following steps.
A) Verification of the data and information of every power plant
B) Establishment of the power development scenarios
C) Establishment of vision of power generation composition
D) Consideration of interconnection with neighboring countries
E) Evaluation of power plant candidates
F) Review of power development scenarios and vision of power generation
composition
G) Putting order of priority to the candidates of power development
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-5
4
【Contents】
H) Establishment of long-term power development plan for the coming 25 years
based on the least cost analysis method
I) Master Plan should be revised every 5 year taking various circumstances into
consideration(This is presenter’s recommendation)
(2) Questionnaires etc. from FMP
Q Master Plan should be considered the implementation of nuclear power plants at Akwa Ibom
state etc.
Master plan should be taken countermeasures of greenhouse gas emission reduction into
consideration.
Nigeria has been exporting power to neighboring countries with interconnection lines.
A Greenhouse gas emission reduction is political matter. Target value such as 25%
reduction compared to 2005 shall be flagged as governmental policy. We shall
reflect the governmental policy in the Master Plan study.
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-6
5
【Contents】
(3) Transmission Planning and Analysis
In the presentation, necessity of coordination with TCN’s 20 year Master Plan
supported by WB is emphasized and following case studies were proposed.
i. 2020 : Near term plan
ii. 2030 : Mid term plan
iii. 2040 : Long term plan
by taking WAPP (West African Power Pool) study into consideration.
(4) Environmental and social consideration: Summary of the presentation
1) Explanation of the JICA’s Environmental and Social Consideration Guidelines
It’s applied to all JICA’s projects.
In the development of the master plan, SEA is implemented.
Stakeholder meetings are very important in the JICA’s guidelines.
2) The basics of SEA and overall process
Information gathering at the early stage of the project, such as baseline data
and laws, regulation, and policies (including climate change strategy) in terms
of environmental and social aspects.
IEE level survey for a hydropower pre-F/S.
Multiple scenarios are compared to search for the best alternatives.
Relevant cumulative impacts are investigated.
Scoping of the environmental and social impacts is carried out.
Stakeholder meetings are held as needed.
Attachment: JCC Program, Attendance List
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-7
TheProjectfor
MasterP
lanStud
yon
Nationa
lPow
erDevelop
ment
inTh
eFede
ralR
epub
licof
Nigeria
OutlineoftheProject
Sept
embe
r 201
5Te
am L
ead
er:
Mas
atsu
guKo
miy
aD
ep. T
eam
Lea
der
/Pro
ject
Coo
rdin
ator
: Mak
oto
Abe
1
Con
tents
1.Ba
ckgr
ound
of t
he P
roje
ct2.
Proj
ect O
verv
iew
3.Ba
sic p
olic
y in
pro
ject
impl
emen
tatio
n4.
Proj
ect O
rgan
izatio
n5.
Join
t Coo
rdin
atio
n C
omm
ittee
(JC
C)
6.Te
chni
cal W
orki
ng G
roup
(TW
G)
7.A
ssist
ance
from
Sta
keho
lder
s8.
Det
ails
of T
WG
9.O
vera
ll Sch
edul
e
Abb
revi
atio
n2
1.Ba
ckgrou
ndof
theProject
3
Popu
latio
n:170Million
Nationa
lElectrification:
45%~50%
Prov
ision
(Sup
ply)
Needs
(Dem
and)
7,100M
WGeneration
Cap
acity
5,000M
WTran
smission
Cap
acity
Asof
Octob
er,2015
2.ProjectO
verview
4
TargetArea:W
holeNigeria
TargetYear
:2015~
2040
WorkPeriod
:Aug
.2015~Oct.2016
Inpu
t:Collabo
rativ
ework
Power
developm
entp
lann
ing
Power
deman
dforecast
Power
generatio
nplan
ning
(Therm
al)
Power
generatio
nplan
ning
(Hyd
ro)
Prim
aryenergy
analysis
Tran
smission
,Sub
stationplan
ning
/Po
wer
system
analysis
Power
sector
policy
Environm
entaland
socialconsiderations
Econ
omican
dfin
ancialan
alysis
Outpu
t:
Nationa
lPow
erSy
stem
Develop
ment
(for2
5years)
Cap
acity
Develop
ment
Plan
Do
Check
Action
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-8
3.Ba
sicpo
licyin
projectimplem
entatio
n
Polic
y 1:
Con
siste
ncy
with
Nig
eria
's de
velo
pmen
t pla
n an
d en
ergy
pol
icy
5
Polic
y 2:
Cor
pora
tion
and
Coo
rdin
atio
n w
ith
othe
r Rel
evan
t Aut
horit
ies
and
dono
rs
Polic
y 3:
Em
phas
is of
Tech
nica
l Tra
nsfe
r
Polic
y 4:
Coo
rdin
atio
n w
ith Tr
ansm
issio
n Sy
stem
Exp
ansio
n Pl
an
4.ProjectO
rgan
ization
6
PRO
JECT
SID
E
MAN
AGEM
ENT
SIDE
JICA
Nig
eria
Offi
ce(J
ICA
Head
quar
ters
)
Proj
ect D
irect
or: P
erm
anen
t Sec
reta
ry(F
MP)
-Con
trol
and
man
agem
ent o
f mat
ters
rela
ted
topr
ojec
t im
plem
enta
tion
-Coo
rdin
atio
n w
ith e
nerg
y se
ctor
stak
ehol
ders
Proj
ect M
anag
er: D
irect
or, E
nerg
y Re
sour
ces D
epar
tmen
t(FM
P)-C
ontr
ol a
nd m
anag
emen
t of m
atte
rs re
late
d to
pro
ject
impl
emen
tatio
n-C
oord
inat
ion
with
JICA
exp
erts
Depu
ty P
roje
ct M
anag
er: M
anag
ing
Dire
ctor
, SO
/MO
(TCN
)-S
uppo
rt to
the
Proj
ect M
anag
er-C
oord
inat
ion
with
JICA
exp
erts
esp
ecia
lly in
syst
em p
lann
ing
FMP:
Fed
eral
Min
istry
of P
ower
, TCN
: Tra
nsm
issio
n Co
mpa
ny o
f Nig
eria
SO: S
yste
m O
pera
tion,
MO
: Mar
ket O
pera
tion
JCC:
Join
t Coo
rdin
atio
n Co
mm
ittee
, TW
G: T
echn
ical
Wor
king
Gro
up
5.JointC
oordinationCom
mittee(JCC) 7
6.TechnicalW
orking
Group
(TWG)
8
Org
aniz
atio
n of
TW
GPr
ojec
t Man
ager
Dire
ctor
, Ene
rgy
Reso
urce
s Dep
artm
ent(
FMP)
orDe
puty
Pro
ject
Man
ager
Man
agin
g Di
rect
or, S
O/M
O(T
CN)
Secr
etar
y of
the
TWG
Tech
nica
l Cou
nter
part
s fro
m T
CN
JICA
expe
rts
Tech
nica
l Cou
nter
part
s fro
m F
MP
Rele
vant
Org
aniz
atio
ns
Mai
n Ro
les o
f TW
G-
To u
pdat
e m
embe
rs o
n th
e Pr
ojec
t pro
gres
s-
To sh
are
the
chal
leng
es in
the
Proj
ect
-To
har
mon
ize
the
proj
ect a
ctiv
ities
with
oth
er re
leva
nt a
genc
ies
-To
Col
labo
rate
and
Coo
rdin
ate
with
JICA
exp
erts
to fo
rmul
ate
Mas
ter P
lan
FMP:
Fed
eral
Min
istry
of P
ower
, TCN
: Tra
nsm
issio
n Co
mpa
ny o
f Nig
eria
PRS:
Pla
nnin
g, R
esea
rch
and
Stat
istic
s, T
WG:
Tec
hnic
al W
orki
ng G
roup
SO: S
yste
m O
pera
tion,
MO
: Mar
ket O
pera
tion
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-9
7.Assistancefrom
Stakeholde
rs
9
TCN
Tran
smis
sion
Com
pany
of N
iger
ia(P
ower
Sys
tem
Mas
ter P
lan)
Disc
oDi
strib
utio
n Co
mpa
nies
(Em
bedd
ed G
ener
atio
n)
Genc
osGe
nera
tion
Com
pani
es(IP
P)RE
ARu
ral E
lect
rific
atio
n Ag
ency
(Fac
ilita
tion
of E
lect
rific
atio
n Ra
te)
NDP
HCN
iger
Del
ta P
ower
Hol
ding
Com
pany
(Impl
emen
tatio
n of
NIP
P)
NBE
T(N
iger
ia B
ulk
Elec
tric
ity T
radi
ng)
(Pow
er T
radi
ng)
PTFP
: Pre
side
ntia
l Tas
k Fo
rce
on P
ower
NER
CN
atio
nal E
lect
ricity
Reg
ulat
ory
Com
mis
sion
(Res
tric
tion
in P
ower
Sec
tor)
NPC
Nat
iona
l Pla
nnin
g Co
mm
issi
on(A
dvic
e fo
r Nat
iona
l Pla
n)
FMP
Fede
ral M
inis
try
of P
ower
(Lea
d Po
wer
Dev
elop
men
t Pla
n)
NGC
:Nig
eria
n Ga
s Com
pany
Lim
ited
NN
PC:N
iger
ian
Nat
iona
l Pet
role
um C
orpo
ratio
n
FMF:
Fede
ral M
inis
try
of F
inan
ceFM
E:Fe
dera
l Min
istr
y of
Env
ironm
ent
FMM
SD:F
eder
al M
inis
try
of M
ines
and
Ste
el D
evel
opm
ent
FMAR
D:Fe
dera
l Min
istr
y of
Agr
icul
ture
and
Rur
al D
evel
opm
ent
NIM
ET:N
iger
ian
Met
eoro
logi
cal A
genc
yN
ESRA
:Nat
iona
l Env
ironm
enta
l sta
ndar
ds &
Reg
ulat
ions
En
forc
emen
t Age
ncy
ECN
Ener
gy C
omm
issi
on o
f Nig
eria
(M/P
of R
enew
able
Ene
rgy)
NPC
:Nat
iona
l Pop
ulat
ion
Com
mis
sion
ICRC
:Infr
astr
uctu
re C
once
ssio
n Re
gula
tory
Com
mis
sion
NAE
C:N
iger
ia A
tom
ic E
nerg
y Co
mm
issi
on
BPE
Bure
au o
f Pub
lic E
nter
pris
e
ISAP
:Initi
al S
take
hold
er A
dvis
ory
Pane
lN
OTA
P:N
atio
nal O
ffice
for T
echn
olog
y Ac
quis
ition
and
Pro
mot
ion
8.Detailsof
TWG
10
9.OverallSchedu
le
11
JCC(
1)TT
W(1
)TW
G(1
)TT
W(2
)TW
G(2
)TT
W(3
)
JCC(
2)
Sem
inar
TTW
(4)
Sem
inar
in Ja
pan
Abb
reviation
12
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-10
1
Con
tent
s
1.O
verv
iew
son
Pow
erde
man
dfo
reca
sts(
page
2)
2.M
etho
dolo
gies
ofP
ower
dem
and
mod
el(p
age
6)
3.Jo
int
wor
ksbe
twee
nC
/Pan
dSt
udy
team
(pag
e12
)
Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
sts
MAS
TER
PLAN
STU
DY
ON
NAT
ION
AL P
OW
ER S
YSTE
M D
EVEL
OPM
ENT
INTH
E FE
DER
AL R
EPU
BLIC
OF
NIG
ERIA
Sept
embe
r 2
015
2
1.O
verv
iew
s(1
)Cu
rren
t N
iger
ia P
ower
Con
sum
ptio
nN
iger
ian
pow
erco
nsum
ptio
npe
rcap
itais
200
kWh
in20
11,i
tisl
ower
than
othe
rcou
ntiri
es.
Asot
herc
ount
ries,
ther
ear
eGh
ana
344
kWh,
Viet
nam
1,08
0kW
hin
2011
.
3
(2)
The
requ
ired
info
rmat
ion
to P
ower
dem
and
fore
cast
s
Impo
rtan
t in
form
atio
nFo
reca
stin
g
Com
men
ts
Pow
er d
eman
d20
15to
204
0Th
e w
hole
cou
ntry
, Sec
tor
and
DIS
CO w
ise
Peak
dem
and
2015
to
2040
The
who
le c
ount
ry a
nd D
ISCO
wis
e
Gen
erat
ion
2015
to
2040
Mai
n pr
oduc
ers
and
Auto
pro
duce
rs (
gene
rato
rs fo
r In
depe
nden
t gr
id)
Tran
smis
sion
& D
istr
ibut
ion
loss
2015
to
2040
The
who
le c
ount
ry a
nd D
ISCO
wis
e
Fuel
sou
rce
cons
umpt
ion
2015
to
2040
Oil
prod
ucts
,Nat
ural
gas
and
Coa
l
Prim
ary
ener
gy s
uppl
y20
15 t
o 20
40Th
eab
ove
+ I
mpo
rt o
il +
Hyd
ro +
Bio
+ R
enew
able
GD
P pe
r ca
pita
2015
to
2040
Nig
eria
, G
hana
, Tan
zani
a,
Sout
h-Af
rica
Saud
i-Ara
bia,
Mal
aysi
a, C
hina
, Jap
an
Pow
erco
nsum
ptio
n pe
r ca
pita
2015
to
2040
Nig
eria
, G
hana
, Tan
zani
a,
Sout
h-Af
rica
Saud
i-Ara
bia,
Mal
aysi
a, C
hina
, Jap
an
The
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
sts
are
requ
ired
whe
n es
tabl
ishi
ng P
ower
sy
stem
mas
ter
plan
. E
spec
ially
, the
follo
win
gs a
re im
port
ant.
4
(3)
Cons
iste
ncy
to t
he o
ther
Str
ateg
ies
and
Plan
s
Stra
tegy
and
pla
n fie
lds
Stud
y ite
ms
Nat
iona
l Str
ateg
ies
Nig
eria
Vis
ion
20:
2020
Econ
omic
dev
elop
men
t st
rate
gyN
iger
ia E
cono
mic
Rev
iew
and
Out
look
(20
15-2
017)
Pow
er s
ecto
r pl
an(1
)El
ectr
ifica
tion
plan
:
56%
??(2
)Lo
ss r
educ
tion
plan
: 9
% ?
(3)
Shed
ding
red
uctio
n pl
an:
20%
??(4
)Au
to g
ener
atio
n es
timat
ion:
27%
??(5
)G
rid c
onne
ctio
n pl
an :
Ind
epen
dent
grid
to
TCN
Ener
gy p
lan
Nat
iona
l Ene
rgy
Mas
ter
plan
201
4 By
Min
istr
y of
Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy
Rene
wab
le e
nerg
y p
lan
Nat
iona
lRen
ewab
le E
nerg
y an
d En
ergy
Eff
icie
ncy
Polic
y (N
REEE
P) b
y M
inis
try
of S
cien
ce a
nd T
echn
olog
y
Envi
ronm
ent
plan
W
oods
and
cha
rcoa
l con
sum
ptio
n es
timat
ion
For
keep
ing
the
cons
iste
ncy
amon
g th
e re
late
d st
rate
gies
and
pla
ns in
N
iger
ia, T
he fol
low
ings
are
stu
died
by
the
JICA
tea
m a
nd C
/P.
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-11
5
(4)
Revi
ew o
f th
e Ex
istin
g Po
wer
Dem
and
Fore
cast
Exist
ing
Pow
erDe
man
dIte
ms
Stud
yite
ms
Nat
iona
lLoa
dDe
man
dSt
udy
Publ
ished
Fore
cast
edPo
wer
dem
and
Met
hodo
logy
TCN
April
2009
2010
to20
33Po
tent
iald
eman
dby
natio
nal&
regi
onSo
cial
&ec
onom
icsc
enar
ioap
proa
ch
Anal
ysis
OfN
iger
ia‘s
Nat
iona
lEle
ctric
ityDe
man
dFo
reca
st
Publ
ished
Fore
cast
edPo
wer
dem
and
Met
hodo
logy
Mr.
Ezen
naya
,ot
hers
2013
to20
30Re
siden
tial,
Indu
stry
and
Com
mer
cial
Tim
eSe
riesA
naly
sis
Afric
anEn
ergy
Out
look
Publ
ished
Fore
cast
edPo
wer
dem
and
Met
hodo
logy
Inte
rnat
iona
lEne
rgy
Agen
cyFo
reca
st20
14to
2040
TCN
+Au
toge
nera
tion
cons
umpt
ion
Unk
now
n
2.M
etho
dolo
gies
(1)T
echn
olog
ies
for
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
mod
els
a.M
odel
met
hodo
logi
esus
edin
Wor
ldw
ide
Tim
e-se
ries
fore
cast
ing
mod
elEl
astic
ityap
proa
chm
odel
Econ
omet
ricm
odel
Soci
alec
onom
icsc
enar
iom
odel
b.M
odel
build
ing
engi
neof
the
Stud
yte
amSi
mpl
e.E
:de
velo
ped
byTh
eIn
stitu
teof
Ener
gyEc
onom
ics,
Japa
nU
sed
OS/
Soft
:W
indo
ws
XP,V
ista
,7an
d8,
MS-
EXCE
Lad
din
Soft
c.Ex
perie
nces
ofth
em
odel
build
ing
bySi
mpl
e.E
Year
Coun
try
Proj
ect
title
2015
Paki
stan
Pow
ersy
stem
Mas
ter
Plan
2015
Bang
lade
shPo
wer
syst
emM
aste
rPl
an20
14Ta
nzan
iaPo
wer
syst
emM
aste
rpl
an20
12O
man
EE&
CM
aste
rpl
anpr
ojec
t20
11Ka
zakh
stan
EE&
Cpr
ojec
tfin
ding
surv
eypr
ojec
t20
11Se
rbia
EE&
CM
aste
rpl
anpr
ojec
t20
10Sy
riaPo
wer
syst
emM
aste
rpl
an20
10Vi
etna
mPo
wer
syst
emM
aste
rpl
an20
08Sa
udi A
rabi
a EE
&C
Mas
ter
plan
proj
ect
2007
Viet
nam
Ener
gyM
aste
rpa
n6
7
(2)
Mod
elflo
ws
ofth
eSt
udy
team
Econ
omic
blo
ck
(1)
Soci
alec
onom
icin
dice
s-
Pop
ulat
ion
-G
DP
-P
rice
san
dfo
reig
nex
chan
ge
(2)
Pro
duct
ion
acti
viti
es-
Agr
icul
ture
&fo
rest
ryG
DP
-In
dust
rial
GD
P-
Com
mer
cial
&Se
rvic
eG
DP
(3)
Ener
gypr
ices
-C
rude
oilp
rice
-El
ectr
icit
yta
riff
s-
Pet
role
um
prod
uct
pric
es
(4)P
reco
ndit
ion
valu
es-
T/D
loss
-O
wn
use
-Lo
adfa
ctor
-El
ectr
ific
atio
nra
te
(5)
Pow
ersu
pply
plan
-Im
port
-R
enew
able
/H
ydro
pow
er
Ener
gy d
eman
d bl
ock
(1)
Pow
erde
man
dby
sect
or-
Res
iden
tial
-In
dust
ry-
Com
mer
cial
-LN
Gus
e-
T/D
loss
-O
ther
s
(2)
Pow
erne
tde
man
d-
Net
elec
tric
ener
gyde
man
d-
Net
peak
dem
and
-R
enew
able
ener
gy
(3)
Ener
gyso
urce
inP
ower
sect
or-
Coa
l-
Gas
-O
il-
Oth
ers
(4)
Pow
erco
nsum
ptio
npe
rca
pita
-N
iger
ia-
Sout
hA
fric
a-
Gha
na-
Tanz
ania
-M
alay
sia
-O
ther
s
(5)P
rim
ary
ener
gyde
man
dby
ener
gy-
Coa
l-
Nat
ural
gas
-LP
G-
Gas
olin
e-
Jet
fuel
-K
eros
ene
-D
iese
l-
Fuel
oil
-P
ower
-R
enew
able
ener
gy
8
(3)
Build
ing
proc
edur
es o
f po
wer
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
mod
el
Popu
latio
n fo
reca
st s
heet
Gro
wth
sht
Dat
a sh
eet:
Mod
el s
heet
:Si
mul
atio
n s
heet
:
Com
pare
sht
D
ISCO
sht
Prim
ary
sht
Popu
latio
n gr
owth
Econ
omic
Gro
wth
Pow
er t
ariff
Resi
dent
ial p
ower
dem
Indu
stry
pow
er d
emLN
Gpo
wer
dem
Com
mer
cial
pow
er d
emPu
blic
pow
er d
emT/
D lo
ss
--
----
----
----
----
----
----
Net
pow
er d
eman
dG
ener
atio
n Pe
ak d
eman
d
Elas
ticity
cal
cula
tion
ln(Y
)=a*
ln(G
DP)
-b*l
n(Ta
riff)
+ c
Fore
cast
ing
equa
tion
Yt=
Yt-
1*(
1+a*
GD
P)*(
1+b*
tarif
f)*(
1+EE
&C)
Actu
al t
erm
2000
-201
3
Fore
cast
ing
term
2014
-204
0
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-12
(4)
Reco
rded
& C
ompu
ted
pow
er d
eman
d Fo
reca
stin
g
9
Sour
ce :
Act
ual v
alue
s ar
e es
timat
ed b
y th
e St
udy
team
and
, fu
ture
val
ues
are
tent
ativ
efo
reca
sted
by
the
Stud
y te
am
10
(5)
Pow
er c
ompa
rison
bet
wee
n N
iger
ia a
nd S
elec
ted
coun
trie
s
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Nige
ria12
017
318
328
341
853
365
479
194
9Ta
nzan
ia73
102
119
153
00
00
0So
uth
Afric
a4,
681
4,66
04,
571
00
00
00
Ghan
a34
625
929
90
00
00
0M
alays
ia2,
720
2,85
74,
136
00
00
00
Chin
a99
31,
784
2,94
40
00
00
0
KWh
/ ca
pita
Sour
ce :
Wor
ld B
ank
Dat
abas
e , f
utur
e va
lues
of N
iger
ia a
re t
enta
tive
fore
cast
ed b
y th
e St
udy
team
11
(6)
Pow
er d
eman
d by
DIS
CO
Nat
iona
l grid
Inde
pend
ent
grid Au
to
prod
ucer
s
1Abuj
a2B
enin3E
nugu
4Eko
5Ibad
an6I
keja
7Jos
8Kadu
na9K
ano10
Port H
arcour
11Yo
la
12
3.Jo
int
wor
ks
(1)
Colle
ctio
nof
pow
erde
man
dda
ta&
stra
tegi
es
Type
Data
and
Info
rmat
ion
assa
mpl
ePe
riods
Pow
erda
taPo
wer
cons
umpt
ion
and
Pow
erta
riff
2000
2014
Pow
erge
nera
tion
,Ow
nus
ean
dT/
Dlo
ss20
0020
14
Load
fact
or,P
eak
load
and
Rese
rve
mar
gin
2010
2014
Off
grid
Off
grid
byre
gion
2000
2014
DISC
Oda
taPo
wer
cons
umpt
ion
and
num
bero
fcus
tom
ers
byDI
SCO
2000
2014
Peak
dem
and
&Lo
adfa
ctor
byDI
SCO
2000
2014
Futu
repl
anIn
dust
ryde
velo
pmen
tPl
ans
Off
grid
tom
ain
grid
and
Rene
wab
leen
ergy
plan
s
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-13
Type
Dat
a an
d In
form
atio
n a
s sa
mpl
e
Pow
er d
eman
dC
ompu
ted
& R
ecor
ded
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
sts
Sect
orw
ise
cont
ribu
tion
of
pow
er d
eman
d
Futu
re lo
ad f
acto
r, P
eak
load
Ener
gy d
eman
dSe
ctor
and
ener
gy w
ise
cont
ribu
tion
of
the
dem
and
Futu
re e
nerg
ysu
pply
ava
ilabi
lity
Futu
re im
ages
Com
pari
son
of p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n pe
r G
DP
Com
pari
son
of p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n pe
r ca
pita
13
(2)
Dis
cuss
ing
the
resu
lts
of p
ower
dem
and
fore
cast
s
14
M /
YCo
nten
tsSe
p 2
015
(1)C
olle
ctio
n of
pow
er d
eman
d da
ta &
str
ateg
ies
(2)
Dis
cuss
ing
the
met
hodo
logy
(3)
Dis
cuss
ing
the
stra
tegi
es o
n P
ower
dem
and
Jan
201
6(1
)Bui
ldin
g th
e de
man
d m
odel
(2)D
iscu
ssin
g th
e pr
econ
ditio
nsof
the
for
ecas
ts(3
)Dis
cuss
ing
the
resu
lts o
f th
e fo
reca
sts
(4)E
xpla
inin
g th
e re
sults
to s
take
hold
ers
May
20
16(1
)Col
lect
ion
of fu
el e
nerg
y de
man
d da
ta &
str
ateg
ies
(2)D
iscu
ssin
g th
e m
etho
dolo
gy(3
)Bui
ldin
g th
e fu
el e
nerg
y de
man
d m
odel
(4)D
iscu
ssin
g th
e pr
econ
ditio
ns o
n th
e fu
el e
nerg
y fo
reca
sts
(5)D
iscu
ssin
g th
e fu
el e
nerg
yde
man
d fo
reca
sts
(6)E
xpla
inin
g th
e re
sults
to
stak
ehol
ders
(3)
Sche
dule
on
the
Pow
er D
eman
d
15
Than
k yo
u
16
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Comp
uted d
eman
dNe
t dem
and(
Energ
y)GW
h51
,989
88,46
713
6,018
203,9
8828
9,292
392,7
76
Net
peak
dema
nd(P
ower)
MW8,6
3815
,537
23,88
835
,825
50,80
768
,981
Shed
ding a
t pea
k dem
and
MW1,0
370
00
00
TCN
peak
dema
ndMW
6,046
10,87
618
,343
29,39
043
,745
61,56
2
Auto
produ
cer's
peak
dema
ndMW
2,591
4,661
5,545
6,435
7,061
7,419
Reco
rded d
eman
dRe
corde
d pea
k dem
and
MW7,6
0115
,537
23,88
835
,825
50,80
768
,981
TCN
peak
dema
ndMW
5,010
10,87
618
,343
29,39
043
,745
61,56
2
Auto
produ
cer's
peak
dema
ndMW
2,591
4,661
5,545
6,435
7,061
7,419
Appe
ndix
1 :
Po
wer
dem
and
fore
cast
item
s (
tent
ativ
e)
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Capa
city
Peak
*1.2
GW10
1929
4361
83
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-14
17
Appe
ndix
2 :
In
dica
tors
of
Pow
er d
eman
d (t
enta
tive)
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Socia
l eco
nomi
c Po
pulat
ion10
00 p
erson
s18
3,523
210,1
5823
9,874
273,1
2031
0,125
350,7
20
data
GDP
(200
5 pr
ice U
S$)
Billio
n US
$21
830
642
960
284
41,1
84
Nomi
nal G
DP (U
S$)
Billio
n US
$62
81,0
271,6
972,7
514,4
317,1
35
Electr
ic en
ergy D
eman
dGW
h51
,989
88,46
713
6,018
203,9
8828
9,292
392,7
76
Powe
r dem
and
MW8,6
3815
,537
23,88
835
,825
50,80
768
,981
GDP
(200
5 pr
ice U
S$) /
capit
aUS
$ pe
r cap
ita1,1
881,4
561,7
892,2
032,7
213,3
75
Indic
ator
Nomi
nal G
DP (U
S$) /
capit
aUS
$ pe
r cap
ita3,4
214,8
877,0
7610
,073
14,28
620
,345
Powe
r dem
and
/ rGD
P at
2005
kWh
per U
S$0.2
380.2
890.3
170.3
390.3
430.3
32
Powe
r dem
and
/ Nom
inal G
DP
kWh
per U
S$0.0
830.0
860.0
80.0
740.0
650.0
55
Powe
r dem
and
/ cap
itakW
h pe
r cap
ita28
342
156
774
793
31,1
20
Powe
r dem
and
/ Hou
seho
ldkW
per
HH0.2
640.4
140.5
580.7
350.9
171.1
01
Power
Generation
Developm
entP
lan
K.N
ISHI
WAK
I
MasterP
lanFlow
Chart
1)Verificationof
thedataandinform
ation
ofeverypo
wer
plant
Actu
alre
cord
sofp
ower
gene
ratio
nan
dsy
stem
oper
atio
n,Li
stof
plan
ned
pow
erpl
ants
incl
udin
gIP
Pan
dBO
T,Pl
anso
fpow
erex
chan
gew
ithne
ighb
orin
gco
untr
ies,
Plan
sfor
abol
ition
and
repl
acem
ento
fpow
erpl
ants
and
soon
.
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-15
2)Establish
mento
fthe
power
developm
ent
scen
arios
Dem
and
fore
cast
scen
ario
sHi
gh,B
ase,
Low
Lim
itatio
nof
capa
city
oftr
ansm
issio
nlin
esDe
lay
ofde
velo
pmen
tW
ater
flow
fluct
uatio
nof
hydr
opow
erst
atio
nsCo
nfor
mity
with
ener
gyre
sour
cesd
evel
opm
enta
ndsu
pply
plan
Pow
erex
chan
gew
ithne
ighb
orin
gco
untr
iest
hrou
ghin
terc
onne
ctio
nsFu
elpr
ice
hike
Cons
trai
ntan
dco
nditi
onof
IPP
and
BOT
plan
tope
ratio
n
3)Establish
mento
fvision
ofpo
wer
gene
ratio
ncompo
sition
•The
mos
teco
nom
icco
mpo
sitio
nis
soug
htby
chan
ging
the
deve
lopm
entr
atio
sofv
ario
usty
peso
ffue
l(co
alfir
edth
erm
al,
com
bine
dcy
cle
ther
mal
and
hydr
opow
eret
c.)w
ithw
hich
new
deve
lopm
enti
sdee
med
feas
ible
,and
com
parin
gth
eto
tala
nnua
lco
sts,
cons
istin
gof
fixed
cost
sand
varia
ble
(fuel
)cos
ts,i
nth
eva
rious
deve
lopm
entr
atio
sofe
ach
pow
erso
urce
.•
The
pow
erge
nera
tion
com
posit
ion
with
the
leas
tcos
tope
ratio
nis
dete
rmin
edby
findi
ngou
tthe
mos
teco
nom
icco
mbi
natio
nof
pow
erso
urce
sam
ong
the
vario
uspo
wer
deve
lopm
ents
cena
riosa
lsoba
sed
onth
ere
sults
ofris
kst
udy
ofea
chsc
enar
io.
4)Co
nsiderationof
intercon
nectionwith
neighb
oringcoun
tries
•Int
erco
nnec
tion
with
neig
hbor
ing
coun
trie
swill
bepl
anne
dfo
rim
plem
enta
tion
taki
ngth
est
udy
onin
terc
onne
ctio
npl
anam
ong
WAP
Pco
untr
iesi
nto
acco
unt.
5)Evaluatio
nof
power
plantcandidates
Sele
ctio
nof
sites
The
info
rmat
ion
fore
cono
mic
eval
uatio
nis
colle
cted
and
puti
nor
der,
such
aslo
catio
n,av
aila
ble
capa
city
ofun
its(k
W),
type
soff
uel,
deve
lopm
entp
erio
d,co
nstr
uctio
nco
st,f
uelc
osta
ndso
on.
Econ
omic
eval
uatio
nCo
mpr
ehen
sive
econ
omic
eval
uatio
nis
carr
ied
outb
yco
mpa
ring
cost
ofpo
wer
gene
ratio
nof
each
deve
lopm
ents
ite.
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-16
6)Review
ofpo
wer
developm
entscenario
sand
visio
nof
power
gene
ratio
ncompo
sition
•The
pow
erde
velo
pmen
tsce
nario
sand
visio
nof
pow
erge
nera
tion
com
posit
ion
are
revi
ewed
.
7)Pu
ttingordero
fprio
rityto
thecand
idates
ofpo
wer
developm
ent
•Th
eca
ndid
ates
are
prio
ritize
dco
nsid
erin
gth
eec
onom
icef
ficie
ncy,
dive
rsifi
catio
nan
dse
curit
yof
prim
ary
ener
gies
,con
ditio
nsof
exist
ing
pow
erpl
ants
and
inte
rcon
nect
ion
with
neig
hbor
ing
coun
trie
s.
8)Establish
mento
flon
gterm
power
developm
entp
lanforthe
coming25
years
•The
leas
tcos
tpow
erde
velo
pmen
tpla
nfo
rthe
com
ing
25ye
arsi
sde
term
ined
toac
hiev
eth
eap
prop
riate
pow
erso
urce
com
posit
ion
orbe
stfu
elm
ixin
the
year
of20
40.
9)MasterP
lanshou
ldbe
revisedevery5year
taking
vario
uscircum
stancesinto
consideration
Achi
evem
entr
atio
ofpo
wer
deve
lopm
ents
hall
bede
laye
d.Ci
rcum
stan
cesa
lterc
ases
such
asfu
elpr
ice,
new
deve
lopm
ent
proc
edur
esan
dch
ange
ofec
onom
icfa
bric
etc.
Budg
etan
dbu
sines
ssitu
atio
n
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-17
Thankyou,seeyouagain.
MMas
ter P
lan S
tudy
on
the
Nat
iona
l Pow
er S
yste
m
Dev
elopm
ent
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
and
Ana
lysis
Sudi
pto
Bhow
mik
2015
Con
fiden
tial
1.Pr
ojec
t Mob
iliza
tion
and
Dat
a co
llect
ion
2.Es
tabl
ishm
ent o
f Bas
e C
ase
Dat
a Se
ts fro
m T
CN
and
Oso
gbo
3.D
ata
clean
upan
d ve
rifica
tion
for
clean
bas
e ca
se
4.C
oord
inat
ion
with
TC
N tr
ansm
issio
n m
aste
r pl
an fr
om W
orld
Ban
k
5.C
oord
inat
ion
with
Gen
erat
ion,
Loa
d fo
reca
st an
d Su
bsta
tion
grou
p
2
SSche
dule
of T
rans
miss
ion
plan
ning
Con
fiden
tial
1.In
puts
from
NER
C a
nd N
BET
rega
rdin
g pr
ojec
t com
plet
ion
prob
abili
ty
2.Pr
elim
inar
y pr
esen
tatio
n of
Dat
a co
llect
ion
3.C
reat
ion
of 3
futu
re c
ase
studi
es
i.20
20 :
Nea
r te
rm p
lan
ii.20
30 :
Mid
term
plan
iii.
2040
: Lo
ng te
rm p
lan
4.In
clusio
n of
WAP
P pl
ans
3
SSche
dule
of T
rans
miss
ion
plan
ning
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-18
Con
fiden
tial
Dev
elopm
ent o
f the
Tra
nsm
issio
n Sy
stem
for
25 y
ears
tim
eline
in o
rder
tosu
ppor
t the
“M
aste
r pl
an s
tudy
” be
ing
deve
lope
d by
JIC
A
The
prim
ary
focu
s is
Gen
erat
ion
adeq
uacy
Coo
rdin
ate
with
the
plan
ope
ratio
n ba
sed
TCN
’s 20
yea
r m
aste
r pl
an (W
orld
Bank
).
All a
naly
sis w
ill b
e ca
rried
out u
sing
PSS®
E
Any
addi
tiona
l dev
elopm
enta
l nee
d fo
r tra
nsm
issio
n up
grad
es w
ill ta
ke in
toco
nsid
erat
ion
feas
ibili
ty a
nd re
liabi
lity
4
OObj
ectiv
e
Con
fiden
tial
11.TC
N: B
ulk
of s
imul
atio
n da
ta in
cludi
ng T
rans
miss
ion
upgr
ade
queu
es ,
their
pro
babi
lity
and
prio
rity
2.N
ERC
: Rele
vant
Gen
erat
ion
upgr
ades
3.N
BET
:Rele
vant
Gen
erat
ion
upgr
ades
4.W
orld
Ban
k: D
ata
verif
icatio
n an
d co
ordi
natio
n
5.N
DPH
C: T
rans
miss
ion
upgr
ades
5
Relev
ant O
rgan
izat
ions
Con
fiden
tial
–Po
wer
Flow
dat
a fo
r pr
esen
t and
futu
re y
ear
in P
SS/E
form
at
–D
etailed
gen
erat
or d
ata
–D
etailed
dat
a re
gard
ing
volta
ge c
ontro
l dev
ices
and
sche
dule
–D
efin
ition
and
lim
its o
f the
pow
er tr
ansm
issio
n in
terfa
ces.
–C
ontin
genc
ies: d
efin
ition
and
th
eir c
orre
spon
ding
lim
its
–Re
ports
on
histo
rically
obs
erve
d Tr
ansm
issio
n an
d Vo
ltage
pro
blem
s an
d
their
asso
ciate
d da
ta
6
DDat
a Re
ques
t
Con
fiden
tial
–Re
cent
/Plann
ed tr
ansm
issio
n or
gen
erat
ion
upgr
ades
–Re
strict
ions
on
sites
for
insta
llatio
n or
tran
smiss
ion
upgr
ades
–Sy
stem
load
fore
casts
–Sy
stem
diagr
ams
(exi
sting
)
–In
form
atio
n on
tran
smiss
ion
upgr
ades
pro
babi
lity
–C
urre
nt G
rid c
odes
and
ope
ratin
g pr
oced
ures
, for
bot
h na
tiona
l and
regi
onal s
yste
ms.
7
DDat
a Re
ques
t 2
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-19
1
2
1.
Pri
nci
ple
s o
f JI
CA
’s E
nvi
ron
me
nta
l a
nd
So
cia
lG
uid
eli
ne
s
2.
Wh
at
is S
tra
teg
ic E
nvi
ron
me
nta
l A
sse
ssm
en
t(S
EA
) ?
3.
Ho
w t
o i
nte
gra
te E
nvi
ron
me
nta
l a
nd
So
cia
lC
on
sid
era
tio
n (
ES
C)
into
th
e P
lan
4.
Sch
ed
ule
of
the
stu
dy:
SE
A a
nd
IE
E
5.
Str
ate
gy
for
ES
C
6.
JIC
A’s
Ch
eck
list
fo
r E
SC
3
1.
A w
ide
rang
e of
impa
cts
mus
t be
add
ress
ed.
2.
Mea
sure
s fo
r en
viro
nmen
tal a
nd s
ocia
l con
side
ratio
ns m
ust
beim
plem
ente
d fr
om a
n ea
rly
stag
e to
a m
onito
ring
sta
ge.
3.
JIC
A is
res
pons
ible
for
acc
ount
abili
ty w
hen
impl
emen
ting
coop
erat
ion
proj
ects
.4
.JI
CA
ask
s st
akeh
olde
rs f
or t
heir
par
ticip
atio
n.5
.JI
CA
dis
clos
es in
form
atio
n.6
.JI
CA
enh
ance
s or
gani
zatio
nal c
apac
ity.
7.
JIC
A m
akes
ser
ious
att
empt
s at
pro
mpt
ness
.
B Bas
ic P
rinc
iple
s in
the
Gui
delin
es
The
Mas
ter
Pla
n ap
plie
s:
SEA
(Str
ateg
ic E
nviro
nmen
tal A
sses
smen
t)IE
E (In
itial
Env
ironm
enta
l Exa
min
atio
n) f
or p
re-F
/S (H
ydro
pow
er)
Stak
ehol
der
mee
tings
4
Ana
lytic
al a
nd p
artic
ipat
ory
appr
oach
that
aim
s to
inte
grat
e en
viro
nmen
tal c
onsi
dera
tions
into
pol
icie
s, p
lans
, and
pr
ogra
ms,
and
eva
luat
e th
e in
ter
linka
ges
with
eco
nom
ic a
nd
soci
al c
onsi
dera
tions
.”O
ECD
/DAC
, “Ap
plyi
ng S
trat
egic
Env
ironm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent:
good
pra
ctic
e gu
idan
ce fo
r dev
elop
men
t co
oper
atio
n” (2
006)
AA g
ood
qual
ity
SEA
pro
cess
…
•In
form
s pl
anne
rs, d
ecis
ion
mak
ers
and
affe
cted
pub
lic o
n th
esu
stai
nabi
lity
of s
trat
egic
dec
isio
ns
•Fa
cilit
ates
the
sea
rch
for
the
best
alte
rnat
ive
•En
sure
s de
moc
ratic
dec
isio
n m
akin
g pr
oces
s
•En
hanc
es t
he c
redi
bilit
y of
dec
isio
ns
•Le
ads
to m
ore
cost
-and
tim
e-ef
fect
ive
EIA
at
the
proj
ect
leve
lIA
IA, S
EA P
erfo
rman
ce C
riter
ia (2
002)
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-20
5
PPro
ject
For
mat
ion
App
rais
al b
y JI
CA
G
/A, L
/A
Det
aile
d D
esig
n
Con
stru
ctio
n
Ope
rati
on
Impl
emen
tatio
n of
Env
iron
men
tal M
anag
emen
t P
lan
and
Mon
itori
ng
Miti
gatio
n m
easu
res
& m
onito
ring
pla
n in
tend
er
doc.
incl
udin
g co
st a
rran
gem
ent
Res
ettle
men
tim
plem
enta
tion
& m
onito
ring
Feas
ibili
ty S
tudy
(F/S
)
Mas
ter
Pla
n fo
rmul
atio
nSE
A (S
trat
egic
Env
iron
men
tal A
sses
smen
t)IE
E (In
itial
Env
iron
men
tal E
xam
inat
ion)
EIA
(Env
iron
men
tal I
mpa
ct A
sses
smen
t)EM
P (E
nvir
onm
enta
l Man
agem
ent P
lan)
RA
P (R
eset
tlem
ent A
ctio
n P
lan)
etc
.
201
52
016
Info
rmat
ion
gath
erin
gSE
A fo
r th
e M
aste
r P
lan
IEE
for
pre-
F/S
(Hyd
ropo
wer
)
Sep
tD
ecJa
nM
arA
ugA
pr
7
Co
nfi
rm c
on
ten
ts a
nd
me
an
s o
f co
nd
uct
ing
SE
A w
ith
C/P
IEE
le
vel
inve
stig
ati
on
fo
r p
re-F
/S (
Hyd
rop
ow
er)
Ove
rall
pro
cess
fo
r S
EA
:
1.
Inve
stig
ate
mu
ltip
le s
cen
ari
os
to b
e c
om
pa
red
2.
Inve
stig
ate
re
leva
nt
cum
ula
tive
im
pa
cts
3.
Sco
pin
g o
f e
nvi
ron
me
nta
l a
nd
so
cia
l im
pa
cts
4.
Sta
ke
ho
lde
r m
ee
tin
gs
(as
ne
ed
ed
)
8
Cat
egor
yM
ajor
Env
ironm
enta
l Ite
ms
(Impa
cts)
Per
mits
and
Exp
lana
tion
(1)E
IA&
Env
ironm
enta
l Per
mits
(2)E
xpla
natio
n to
loca
l sta
keho
lder
s
(3)E
xam
inat
ion
of A
ltern
ativ
es
Pol
lutio
n C
ontr
ol(1
)Air
Qua
lity
(2) W
ater
Qua
lity
(3) W
aste
(4) S
oil
cont
amin
atio
n (5
) Noi
se &
Vib
ratio
n(6
)Sub
side
nce
(7) O
dor
Nat
ural
Envi
ronm
ent
(1)
Pro
tect
ed A
reas
(2) E
cosy
stem
(3) H
ydro
logy
(4)T
opog
raph
y an
d G
eolo
gy
Soci
al E
nviro
nmen
t(1
)R
eset
tlem
ent
(2) L
ivin
g&
Liv
elih
ood
(3)H
erita
ge (4
) Lan
dsca
pe (5
) Eth
nic
Min
oriti
esan
d In
dige
nous
Peo
ples
(6) W
orki
ng C
ondi
tions
Oth
ers
(1)
Impa
cts
duri
ng C
onst
ruct
ion
(2) M
onito
ring
(2)
Impa
cts
on G
loba
l Env
ironm
enta
l Iss
ues
(e.g
.gl
obal
war
min
g)
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-21
Yu
rik
o K
ud
o
Yr-
ku
do
@in
tl.y
ach
iyo
-en
g.c
o.j
p
9
WE
WO
ULD
AP
PR
EC
IATE
YO
UR
C
OO
PE
RA
TIO
N
THA
NK
YO
U!
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-22
4th February 2016 1ST TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP
( PROGRESS WORKSHOP )
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-23
TIME TABLE FOR 1ST TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP (PROGRESS WORKSHOP) ON THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON
NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
VENUE: BOARD ROOM (ROOM 510), 5TH FLOOR, CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS, TRANSMISSION COMPANY OF NIGERIA
PLACE: PLOT 441, ZAMBEZI CRESCENT, MAITAMA, ABUJA DATE: 4th FEBRUARY, 2016.
Time Event/Activity Action by 10:00-10:10 Opening Remarks
from the Federal Ministry of Power Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing
10:10-10:20 Introduction All
10:20-10:30 Key note address Director, EnergyResources andDevelopment
10:30-10:45 Technical Working Group (TWG) Progress Workshop
Mr. Makoto Abe
10:45-11:00 TWG Workshop on Power Demand Forecasts
Mr. Tomoyuki Inoue
11:00-11:15 Generation Expansion Plan Mr. Kyoji Fujii
11:15-11:30 Environmental and Social Considerations (ESC)
Ms. Yuriko Kudo
11:30-12:00 Opinion exchange regarding TWG General discussion
TWG members All
12:00-12:10 Closing remarks Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing
Note: FMP- Federal Ministry of Power, PS- Permanent Secretary, ERD- Energy Resources and Development
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-24
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-25
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-26
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-27
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-28
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-29
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-30
TEC
HN
ICA
LW
OR
KIN
GG
RO
UP
(TW
G)
PR
OG
RE
SSW
OR
KSH
OP
4th
Febr
uary
201
6JI
CA
Stu
dy te
am
THE
PR
OJE
CT
FOR
MA
STE
R P
LAN
STU
DY
ON
NA
TIO
NA
L PO
WE
R D
EV
ELO
PME
NT
IN
THE
FE
DE
RA
L R
EPU
BLI
C O
F N
IGE
RIA
CO
NTE
NTS
1.JC
C a
nd T
WG
2.O
bjec
tives
of T
WG
3.St
ruct
ure
of T
WG
4.R
elat
ive
and
Flow
5.Ta
sks
of T
WG
(Gen
eral
)6.
Task
s in
TW
G (G
roup
)-17.
Task
s in
TW
G (G
roup
)-28.
Tent
ativ
e Sc
hedu
le9.
Act
ual a
nd A
ssum
ptio
n10
.Is
sues
to b
e m
easu
red
by T
WG
1
1.R
OLE
SO
FJC
CA
ND
TWG
Join
t Coo
rdin
atio
n C
omm
ittee
2
Org
aniz
atio
n of
TW
GPr
ojec
t Man
ager
Dire
ctor
, Ene
rgy
Reso
urce
s Dep
artm
ent(
FMP)
orDe
puty
Pro
ject
Man
ager
Man
agin
g Di
rect
or, S
O/M
O(T
CN)
Secr
etar
y of
the
TWG
Tech
nica
l Cou
nter
part
s fro
m T
CN
JICA
expe
rts
Tech
nica
l Cou
nter
part
s fro
m F
MP
Rele
vant
Org
aniz
atio
ns
Mai
n Ro
les o
f TW
G-
To u
pdat
e m
embe
rs o
n th
e Pr
ojec
t pro
gres
s-
To sh
are
the
chal
leng
es in
the
Proj
ect
-To
har
mon
ize
the
proj
ect a
ctiv
ities
with
oth
er re
leva
nt a
genc
ies
-To
Col
labo
rate
and
Coo
rdin
ate
with
JICA
exp
erts
to fo
rmul
ate
Mas
ter P
lan
FMP:
Fed
eral
Min
istry
of P
ower
, TCN
: Tra
nsm
issio
n Co
mpa
ny o
f Nig
eria
PRS:
Pla
nnin
g, R
esea
rch
and
Stat
istic
s, T
WG:
Tec
hnic
al W
orki
ng G
roup
SO: S
yste
m O
pera
tion,
MO
: Mar
ket O
pera
tion
Tech
nica
l Wor
king
Gro
up
Pla
nnin
g C
reat
orD
ecis
ion
Mak
er
2.O
BJE
CTI
VE
SO
FTW
GA
ND
JCC
Form
ulat
ion
of N
atio
nal
Pow
er D
evel
opm
ent P
lan(
JIC
A+T
WG
)Im
plem
enta
tion
Rai
sing
Cha
lleng
es, D
iffic
ultie
s in
Gro
ups(
TWG
)C
ount
erm
easu
res(
TWG
)D
ecis
ion
mad
e(JC
C)
Upd
ate
Mas
ter
Plan
by
TWG
(TW
G)
3
Long
-ter
m
Mas
ter
Plan
(fo
r 25
year
s)
Upd
ated
M
aste
r Pl
an(b
y 5y
ears
)R
evie
w
Plan
Do
Che
ck
Act
ion
P D C A PR
epea
t PD
CA
cycl
e by
TW
G
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-31
3.ST
RU
CTU
RE
OF
TWG
4
Deta
ilsof
Tec
hnic
al W
orki
ng G
roup
Gro
up L
eade
r (Ch
air P
erso
n)-P
ower
Dev
elop
men
t Pla
nnin
gG
roup
(Tec
hnic
al) L
eade
r-Po
wer
Dev
elop
men
t Pla
nnin
g
Gro
up S
ecre
tary
-Pow
er D
evel
opm
ent P
lann
ing
Engr
. E.O
Aja
yi, D
irect
or (E
RD),
FMP
Mr.
Mas
atsu
gu K
omiy
a, JI
CA T
eam
Mr.
Aust
in O
. Abe
gund
e,DD
(P) F
MP
Mr.
Mak
oto
Abe,
JICA
Tea
mG
roup
Coo
rdin
ator
Dr. S
unda
y O
wol
obi,
ACE
(ERD
) FM
P
Grou
p (T
echn
ical
) Coo
rdin
ator
-Pow
er D
evel
opm
ent P
lann
ing
Tran
smis
sion
/Sub
stat
ion
plan
ning
/Pow
er sy
stem
ana
lysi
sPo
wer
Dem
and
Fore
cast
Pow
er g
ener
atio
n pl
anni
ng(T
herm
al p
ower
dev
elop
men
t)Po
wer
sect
or p
olic
y
Prim
ary
ener
gy a
naly
sis
Pow
er g
ener
atio
n pl
anni
ng(H
ydro
pow
er d
evel
opm
ent)
Econ
omic
and
fina
ncia
l ana
lysi
sEn
viro
nmen
tal a
nd so
cial
co
nsid
erat
ions
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Kyoj
i Fuj
iiJIC
A Te
am:M
r. Ta
kesh
i Har
aFM
P:E
ngr.
Euge
ne E
jere
gbe
FMP
:Eng
r. An
ikpe
Ken
echu
kwu
Josi
ahTC
N:E
ngr.
Arib
aba
P. A
. (Pl
anni
ng)
TCN
:Eng
r. Em
eka
Chia
tula
TCN
:Eng
r. Er
ic H
ampa
shi (
NCC
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Ola
yanj
u J.
O. (
MO
)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Tom
oyuk
i Ino
ueFM
P:D
r. Su
nday
Ow
olab
i (ER
D)TC
N:E
ngr.
Isho
la B
. A. (
NCC
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Ikel
i H. N
. (Pl
anni
ng)
TCN
:Eng
r. Ch
arle
s Nna
jide
(NCC
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Obi
shai
F. N
. (M
O)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Sudi
pto
Bhow
mik
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Kazu
aki K
ondo
FMP
:Eng
r. Ph
ilip
Okp
anef
e (T
SD)
TCN
:Eng
r. Ab
ba-A
liyu
(Pla
nnin
g)TC
N:E
ngr.
A. N
azif
(Pla
nnin
g)TC
N:E
ngr.
E. C
. Um
oh (N
CC)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Ms.
Izum
i Tak
aiFM
P:M
r. A.
A. A
yode
le (T
SD)
FMP
:Eng
r. Ab
el P
hilip
ele
(RRD
)EC
N:E
ngr.
J. S.
Ola
yand
eEC
N:M
r. Su
lu B
. F. I
brah
imTC
N:A
num
aka,
Cor
pora
te P
lan.
TCN
:Pau
l Ilo
ndu,
Cor
pora
te P
lan.
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Hide
ki O
take
FMP
:Eng
r. En
eh K
ings
ley
(ERD
) EC
N:E
ngr.
J. S.
Ola
yand
eEC
N:M
r. Su
lu B
. F. I
brah
imTC
N:E
ngr.
Arib
aba
P. A
. (Pl
anni
ng)
TCN
:Eng
r. Em
eka
Chia
tula
TCN
:Eng
r. Er
ic H
ampa
shi (
NCC
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Ola
yanj
u J.
O. (
MO
)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Kaor
u N
ishi
wak
iFM
P:E
ngr.
O.T
, Ow
oeye
(ERD
)TC
N:E
ngr.A
ribab
a P.
A. (
Plan
ning
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Emek
a Ch
iatu
laTC
N:E
ngr.
Eric
Ham
pash
i (N
CC)
TCN
:Eng
r. O
laya
nju
J. O
. (M
O)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Mr.
Yusu
ke H
arad
aFM
P:M
r. S.
A. D
ashi
(P)
FMP
:Eng
r. Be
n Ay
ange
aor (
ERD)
TCN
:Eng
r. Ab
olom
ope
R. O
. (AC
)TC
N:E
ngr.
Ajib
ade
M. A
. (Pl
anni
ng)
TCN
:Eng
r. O
gbu
B. C
. (M
O)
[Tec
hnic
al C
ount
erpa
rts]
JICA
Team
:Ms.
Yur
iko
Kudo
FMP
:Eng
r. To
ny U
men
yen
(TSD
)FM
P:E
ngr.
Ekan
em E
ffion
g (D
SD)
TCN
:Olis
a M
. Oko
li (H
SE)
TCN
:Ifeo
ma
Nw
achu
kwu
(HSE
)
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
NDP
HC, N
ERC,
TCN
-SO
, NBE
T, N
NPC
, Gen
cos,
ISAP
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
TCN
-SO
, TCN
-MO
, Gen
cos,
Disc
os,
NER
C, R
EA, I
SAP
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
NDP
HC, T
CN-S
O, P
TFP
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
ECN
, NER
C, N
BET,
BPE
, NO
TAP,
PTF
P, IC
RC
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
ECN
, NN
PC, N
GC, N
AEC,
FM
ARD,
FM
MSD
, FM
W, N
IMET
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
FMW
, TCN
-SO
, NER
C, N
BET,
ISAP
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
NPC
-1, N
ERC,
NBE
T, N
GC, T
CN-T
SP, N
BS,
NPC
-2, F
MF,
CBN
[Ass
ista
nce
nece
ssar
y fr
om]
FME,
NES
RA, N
PC-2
, TCN
4.R
ELA
TIV
EA
ND
FLO
W
5
Master Plan on National Power System Development
WASP
Power Demand Forecast
Power SectorPolicy
Economic and financial analysis
Hydro Power Development
Thermal Power Development
Transmission planningPower system analysisSubstation Planning
Simple E
Generation Expansion Planning (Optimum Power Development)
Transmission and Substation Facility Planning
Power Tariff
Peak Demand, kWh
Energy Source
Construction Cost
FeedbackFeedback
Environmental and social
considerations
Construction Cost
PSS/E
5.TA
SKS
OF
TWG
(GE
NE
RA
L)
6
Task
JIC
A T
eam
Nig
eria
n C
ount
erpa
rts
Gen
eral
•A
rran
gem
entw
ith r
elat
ed o
rgan
izat
ions
Res
pons
ibili
ty•
Dat
a co
llect
ion
Com
bine
dC
olle
ctin
g
•D
ata
anal
ysis
Ana
lysi
sC
onfir
mat
ion
•B
asic
data
for M
aste
r Pl
anD
ata-
base
Con
firm
atio
n
•Si
mul
atio
nM
etho
dolo
gyTe
chni
cal t
rans
fer
•Fo
rmul
atio
n of
Mas
ter
Plan
Form
ulat
ion
Col
labo
ratio
n
•M
anua
lfor
upd
ate
Mas
ter
Plan
Tobe
mad
eU
tiliz
atio
n
•R
evie
w a
nd U
pdat
e M
aste
r Pl
anC
ontin
ued
6.TA
SKS
INTW
G (G
RO
UP)
-1
7
Task
JIC
A T
eam
Nig
eria
n Te
chni
cal
Cou
nter
part
sPo
wer
Dem
and
Fore
cast
•R
evie
w o
f met
hod
for
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
stR
evie
w
•Fo
rmul
atio
n of
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
stM
etho
dolo
gy,
Form
ulat
ion
Form
ulat
ion,
Rev
iew
,Upd
ate
Prim
ary
ener
gy
•E
nerg
y su
pply
,dem
and
and
orga
niza
tions
Rev
iew
Rev
iew
•E
nerg
y ou
tlook
Stud
ySt
udy
Eco
nom
ic a
nd fi
nanc
ial a
naly
sis
•So
cial
and
Fin
anci
al s
tatu
sR
evie
w
•In
vest
men
t Pla
nSt
udy,
Form
ulat
ion
Form
ulat
ion,
Rev
iew
, Upd
ate
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-32
7.TA
SKS
INTW
G(G
RO
UP)
-2
8
Task
JIC
A T
eam
Nig
eria
n Te
chni
cal
Cou
nter
part
sPo
wer
gen
erat
ion
Plan
ning
•A
naly
sis
of e
xist
ing,
pla
nned
exp
ansi
on p
lan
for
pow
er p
lant
sR
evie
w
•St
udy
of o
ptim
izat
ion
of p
ower
dev
elop
men
t pl
anSi
mul
atio
nR
evie
w,U
pdat
e
Pow
er s
yste
m(T
rans
mis
sion
, Sub
stat
ions
)•
Ana
lysi
s of
exi
stin
g, p
lann
ed e
xpan
sion
pla
n fo
r po
wer
sys
tem
Rev
iew
•Si
mul
atio
nPS
S/E
Mod
elR
evie
w,U
pdat
e
Env
iron
men
tal a
nd S
ocia
l Con
side
ratio
ns
•R
egul
atio
n fr
amew
ork
Rev
iew
•Im
plem
enta
tion
of S
EA
Assi
stan
ceIm
plem
enta
tion
Pow
er S
ecto
r Po
licy
•O
rgan
izat
iona
l and
lega
l fra
mew
ork,
legi
slat
ion,
po
wer
tari
ff an
d ot
her
Pow
er S
ecto
r po
licy
Rev
iew
, R
ecom
men
datio
n
8.TE
NTA
TIV
ESC
HE
DU
LE
9
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
1W2W
3W4W
Wor
k in
Nig
eria
Dat
a so
rting
and
ana
lysis
Powe
r dem
and
mod
elR
evie
w of
the
mod
elFi
naliz
e po
wer d
eman
d fo
reca
stTC
NR
egio
nal d
eman
d su
rvey
Dat
a so
rting
and
ana
lysis
Dis
cuss
ion
on p
re-c
ondi
tion
and
scea
rio s
ettin
gPr
epar
atio
n of
WAS
P m
odel
WAS
P Si
mul
atio
nD
raft
gene
ratio
n ex
pans
ion
plan
TCN
Com
pila
tion
of g
ener
atio
nD
ata
sorti
ng a
nd a
nalys
isBa
se d
ata
with
PSS
/E m
odel
PSS/
E si
mul
atio
n an
d an
alys
isD
raft
trans
mis
sion
exp
ansi
on p
lan
TCN
Com
pila
tion
of tr
ansm
issi
onFi
nanc
ial n
ad E
cono
mic
Ana
lysis
Adju
stm
ent o
f Fin
anci
al M
odel
/ sim
ulat
ion
Form
ulat
ion
of in
vest
men
t pla
nD
raft
Inve
stm
ent P
lan
TCN
Met
hodo
logy
, Exp
ansi
on P
lan
SEA
proc
ess
Key
Stak
ehol
ders
Mee
ting
Scop
ing
Det
aile
d SE
APr
epar
atio
nSt
akeh
olde
r con
sulta
tion
Wor
ksho
pJC
C/S
emin
ar/W
orks
hop
Doc
umen
tatio
n*S
ched
ule
of T
CN
(Pow
er S
yste
m M
aste
r Pla
n) w
ill be
revis
ed.
*Sch
edul
e is
sub
ject
to c
hang
e
2016
As
of F
ebru
ary
1, 2
016
Tent
ativ
e Sc
hedu
le fo
r For
mul
atio
n of
Mas
ter P
lan
Stud
y on
Nat
iona
l Pow
er S
yste
m D
evel
opm
ent i
n th
e Fe
dera
l Rep
ublic
of N
iger
ia
TWG
Inte
rimR
epor
t
Augu
st
Powe
r Dem
and
Fore
cast
Gen
erat
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smis
sion
Syst
emPl
i
Fina
ncia
l and
Econ
omic
Ana
ylsis
/In
vest
men
t Pla
n
Stak
ehol
ders
work
shop
Febr
uary
Mar
chAp
rilM
ayJu
ne
TWG
Janu
ary
Sem
inar
in J
P
Sept
embe
rO
ctob
erJu
ly
Dra
ftFi
nalR
epor
tFi
nal R
epor
t
JCC
Sem
inar
Rea
ult
of R
egio
nald
eman
d Su
rvey
8,46
0.4
8,91
0.4
9,95
5.4
10,9
15.4
11,1
65.4
11,6
75.0
4,21
2.7
4,47
9.2
5,51
6.4
5,05
0.9
6,31
7.7
6,65
2.0
0
5000
1000
0
1500
0
2000
0
2500
0
3000
0
3500
0
4000
0
4500
0
5000
0
5500
0
6000
0
6500
0
7000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Gen
erat
ion
Cap
acity
(Ass
umpt
ion)
Gen
erat
ion
Cap
acity
(Ins
talle
d)G
ener
atio
n C
apac
ity (A
vaila
ble)
Peak
Dem
and
(Ten
tativ
e)Tr
ansm
issi
on C
apac
ity (A
ssum
ptio
n)Pe
ak G
ener
atio
n (A
ctua
l)
Act
ual
Base
S
hort
term
M
iddle
term
Lo
ng te
rm
5,30
0
9.A
CTU
AL
AN
DA
SSU
MPT
ION
10
Gen
Cos
39%
IPP
19%NIP
P25
%
16.6
%
83.4
%Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity11
,.675
MW
Ava
ilabl
e C
apac
ity6,
652.
7MW
(57.
1%)
Peak
Gen
erat
ion
4,88
3.9M
W(4
1.9%
)
Ther
mal
Hyd
ro
10.I
SSU
ES
TOB
EM
EA
SUR
ED
BY
TWG
11
Info
rmat
ion
Shar
ing
Ade
quat
e D
ata
Man
agem
ent
Re-
stru
ctur
e TW
G (i
f nec
essa
ry)
Peri
odic
al T
echn
ical
Wor
king
Gro
up M
eetin
gPe
riod
ical
Upd
ate
of M
aste
r Pla
n
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-33
12
Than
k yo
u fo
r yo
ur a
tten
tion
1
Cont
ents
1.Pr
oced
ures
ofPo
wer
Dem
and
Fore
cast
s(P0
2)
2.Fo
reca
sts
onPo
pula
tion,
GD
Pan
dO
ilpr
ice
(P05
)
3.Co
untr
yW
ide
Pow
erD
eman
dFo
reca
sts
(P08
)
4.Re
gion
alW
ise
Pow
erD
eman
dFo
reca
sts
(P14
)
5.Co
mpa
rison
ofN
iger
iaPo
wer
Dem
and
(P20
)
TWG
Wor
ksho
p on
Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
sts
Janu
ary
2016
MAS
TER
PLAN
STU
DY
ON
NAT
ION
AL P
OW
ER S
YSTE
M D
EVEL
OPM
ENT
IN T
HE
FED
ERAL
REP
UBL
IC O
F N
IGER
IA
2
MM
/YY
Cont
ents
Sep
2015
(1)C
olle
ctin
g de
man
d da
ta &
str
ateg
ies
(2)
Dis
cuss
ing
met
hodo
logy
(3)
Dis
cuss
ing
str
ateg
ies
on
pow
er d
eman
d
Jan
2016
(1)B
uild
ing
Dem
and
mod
el
(2)D
iscu
ssin
g P
reco
nditi
ons
and
Resu
lts o
n th
e fo
reca
sts
(3)E
xpla
inin
g Te
ntat
ive
resu
ltsin
TW
G
(4)I
mpl
emen
ting
Regi
onal
sur
vey
by e
nd o
f M
arch
April
20
16(1
)Rev
isin
g D
ISCO
’s po
wer
dem
and
(2)D
iscu
ssin
g D
ISCO
’s po
wer
dem
and
(3)E
xpla
inin
g Re
sults
to
Stak
ehol
ders
1.Pr
oced
ures
of
Pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
sts
1.1
Sch
edul
e on
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
sts
Not
e:
Regi
onal
sur
vey
is s
tudi
ed b
y TC
N a
nd F
itchn
er
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-34
3
Nig
eria
n C
/PFM
of
Pow
er, W
orks
& H
ousi
ng
TCN
& N
CC
JIC
ASt
udy
Team
Min
istry
and
Auth
ority
Visit
edDa
te
TCN
Tran
smis
sion
Com
pany
of
Nig
eria
19th
Jan
201
6
REA
Rura
l Ele
ctrif
icat
ion
Auth
ority
19th
Jan
201
6
ECN
Ener
gy C
omm
issi
on o
f N
iger
ia20
thJa
n 20
16
NBS
Nat
iona
l Bur
eau
of S
tatis
tics
20th
Jan
201
6
MBN
P (N
PC)
Min
istr
y of
Bud
get
and
Nat
iona
l pla
nnin
g 21
stJa
n 20
16
NN
PCN
iger
ian
Nat
iona
l Pet
role
um C
orpo
ratio
n 21
stJa
n 20
16
NER
CN
iger
ian
Elec
tric
ity R
egul
ator
y Co
mm
issi
on27
thJa
n 2
016
NBE
TN
iger
ia B
ulk
Elec
tric
ity T
rade
29th
Jan
201
6
1.2
Dis
cuss
ing
Soci
alEc
onom
ic&
Pow
erde
man
d
4
1.3
Pow
erde
man
dFo
reca
stin
gsc
hem
es
Popu
latio
n &
GD
P fo
reca
sts
DIS
CO w
ise
Pow
er d
eman
d Fo
reca
sts
Popu
latio
n gr
owth
Econ
omic
Gro
wth
Pow
er t
ariff
Resi
dent
ial d
eman
d
Indu
stry
pow
er d
eman
dCo
mm
erci
al d
eman
dPu
blic
pow
er d
eman
dT/
D-lo
ss--
----
----
----
----
----
----
Net
pow
er d
eman
dG
ener
atio
n Pe
ak d
eman
d
Elas
ticity
cal
cula
tion
ln(Y
)=a*
ln(G
DP)
-b*l
n(Ta
riff)
+ c
Fore
cast
ing
equa
tion
Y t=
Yt-
1*(
1+a*
GD
P)*(
1+b*
tarif
f)*(
1+EE
&C)
Actu
al p
ower
dem
and
2000
-201
4
Fore
cast
ing
perio
d20
15-2
045
Fore
cast
ed d
eman
dSe
ctor
alde
man
dCo
untr
y de
man
dCo
untr
y Pe
ak
Regi
onal
dem
and
Regi
onal
pea
k
Data
Shee
tM
odel
shee
tSi
mul
atio
nsh
eet
Not
e:M
etho
dolo
gy is
Eco
nom
etric
mod
el
5
2.Fo
reca
sts
on P
opul
atio
n, G
DP
and
Oil
pric
es2.
1 P
opul
atio
n Fo
reca
sts
a.To
tal p
opul
atio
n is
340
mill
ion
in 2
040
b.G
row
th r
ate
is 2
.80
% in
201
5 an
d it
is 2
.15
% in
204
0.
c.U
rban
sha
re is
52%
in 2
015
and
66%
in 2
040.
d.G
row
th r
ate
of p
opul
atio
n is
stil
l hig
h in
204
0.
Sour
ce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
: W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Pros
pect
s 20
12 D
ivis
ion
6
2.2
GD
P gr
owth
rat
e
Doc
umen
tsO
rgan
izat
ions
Gro
wth
rate
sPe
riods
Visi
on 2
0 20
20
Nig
eria
Gov
13%
per
year
2
015
-20
20G
DP
outlo
ok
NBS
6%pe
r ye
ar
2015
-20
17
GD
P ou
tlook
N
PC5%
per
year
2015
-20
20Ec
onom
ic o
utlo
ok 2
015
AfD
B7%
per
year
20
15-
2020
Econ
omic
out
look
Apr
il 20
15
IMF
6%pe
r ye
ar
2015
-20
20
Scen
ario
of
GD
P 20
15-2
020
2020
-202
520
25-2
030
2030
-203
520
35-2
040
Base
GD
P5.
0%7.
0%7.
0%7.
0%7.
0%
Hig
hG
DP
6.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
Low
GD
P4.
5%5.
0%5.
0%5.
0%5.
0%
a.Ba
se c
ase
grow
th r
ate
from
201
5 to
202
0 is
fore
cast
ed b
y N
PCb.
Base
cas
e av
erag
e gr
owth
rat
e fr
om 2
020
to 2
040
are
7% d
ue t
opo
pula
tion
grow
th a
nd a
chie
ving
non
oil
sect
or d
iver
sific
atio
n.c.
Hig
h ca
se is
al
mos
t im
plem
entin
g Vi
sion
202
0.d.
Low
cas
e is
con
tinui
ng c
urre
nt e
cono
mic
situ
atio
n.
Ref
eren
ces
:St
rate
gy a
nd E
cono
mic
out
look
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-35
7
a.So
urce
:Ac
tual
dat
a fr
om B
P st
atis
tics.
b.Re
cent
dat
a fr
om T
he I
nstit
ute
of E
nerg
y Ec
onom
ics,
Jap
anc.
Bren
t oi
l pric
e is
nea
rly s
ame
to W
TI p
rice.
(Br
ent
= W
TI +
$5/
bbl)
2.3
Crud
e oi
l pric
e ou
tlook
Org
aniza
tion
Publ
icat
ion
Late
stve
rsio
nIn
tern
atio
nalE
nerg
yAg
ency
(IEA)
Wor
ldEn
ergy
Out
look
WEO
)20
15ve
rsio
n
Org
aniza
tion
ofth
ePe
trol
eum
Expo
rtin
gCo
untr
ies(
OPE
C)W
orld
Oil
Out
look
2014
vers
ion
Ener
gyIn
form
atio
nAg
ency
(EIA
,USA
)In
tern
atio
nalE
nerg
yO
utlo
ok20
14ve
rsio
n
The
Inst
itute
ofEn
ergy
Econ
omic
s,Ja
pan(
IEEJ
)As
ia/W
orld
Ener
gyO
utlo
ok20
15ve
rsio
n
8
3.1
Rec
orde
d de
man
d an
d Co
mpu
ted
dem
and
a.Re
cord
ed d
eman
d m
eans
“W
ith c
onst
rain
dem
and”
and
com
pute
d de
man
d is
“W
ithou
t co
nstr
ain
dem
and”
.b.
“For
ecas
ted
dem
and
in 2
009”
is s
tudi
ed b
y Tr
acte
bel
c.Ac
tual
dem
and
is 9
5 %
of
pow
er g
ener
atio
n (O
wn
use
is 5
%)
d.Sh
eddi
ng =
Com
pute
d de
man
d –
Reco
rded
dem
and
e.Po
wer
dem
and
in M
odel
is fo
reca
sted
with
Com
pute
d de
man
d
3.Co
untr
yW
ide
Pow
erD
eman
dFo
reca
sts
9
3.2
T-
loss
, Loa
d fa
ctor
and
Res
erve
mar
gin
a.So
urce
:Pr
econ
ditio
ns in
“M
YTO
Mod
el 2
012”
b.Fu
ture
load
fact
or is
70%
to
peak
dem
and
c.Re
serv
e m
argi
n is
20%
to
peak
dem
and
d.T-
loss
is 8
% t
o po
wer
sen
d ou
t.
Rese
rve
mar
gin
=20
%
Tlo
ssra
te=
8%
103.
3 S
ecto
ral p
ower
dem
and
(GW
h) a
s JI
CA fo
reca
sts
Sect
orU
nit
2015
20
20
2025
20
30
2035
20
40
Res
iden
tial
GW
h23
,500
32
,200
52
,500
85
,900
12
1,80
0 17
2,00
0 In
dust
ryG
Wh
6,70
0 9,
900
15,3
00
24,2
00
38,1
00
60,0
00
Com
mer
cial
G
Wh
11,3
00
16,4
00
24,7
00
36,3
00
53,1
00
77,7
00
LNG
GW
h40
0 70
0 1,
000
1,30
0 1,
700
2,10
0 Pu
blic
use
GW
h1,
400
1,70
0 2,
100
2,70
0 3,
500
4,40
0 T/
D lo
ssG
Wh
3,80
0 5,
300
8,30
0 13
,100
19
,000
27
,500
C
ompu
ted
tota
lG
Wh
47,1
00
66,3
00
104,
100
163,
400
237,
100
343,
700
2020
/15
2025
/20
2030
/25
2035
/30
2040
/35
2040
/15
G.R
. (%
)7.
19.
59.
47.
77.
78.
3
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-36
11
3.4
Sec
tora
l dem
and
shar
es f
rom
201
5 to
204
0
12
3.5
Peak
dem
and
as J
ICA
Fore
cast
s
Sour
ce o
f O
ff g
rid p
ower
dem
and
: En
ergy
Eff
icie
ncy
Polic
y 20
15So
urce
of
Expo
rt :
MYT
O I
I M
OD
EL -
20122015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Gro
ss p
eak
dem
and
MW
7,30
0 11
,100
17
,500
27
,400
39
,800
57
,700
Requ
ired
capa
city
MW
8,70
0 13
,300
21
,000
32
,900
47
,800
69
,200
Dom
estic
pea
k de
man
dM
W7,
100
10,8
00
17,0
00
26,7
00
38,7
00
56,0
00
TCN
pea
k de
man
dM
W5,
500
8,40
0 14
,700
25
,500
38
,700
56
,000
Auto
pro
duce
r's p
eak
dem
and
MW
1,60
0 2,
400
2,20
0 1,
200
0 0
2020
/15
2025
/20
2030
/25
2035
/30
2040
/35
2040
/15
G.R
. (%
)8.
99.
59.
47.
77.
78.
6
13
3.6
On
grid
and
Off
grid
con
trib
utio
n as
JIC
A Fo
reca
sts
Rene
wab
leU
nit
2015
2020
2030
2040
SHP
MW
601,
600
8,20
0So
lar
MW
201,
300
6,80
0Bi
oM
W0
600
3,20
0W
ind
MW
1010
030
0To
tal
MW
903,
700
23,0
00JIC
AEs
timat
esM
W10
060
025
,800
40,7
00
Sour
ce :
Nat
iona
l Ren
ewab
le E
nerg
y an
d EE
&C
polic
y, A
pril
2015
P
36
4.Re
gion
wis
e po
wer
dem
and
fore
cast
s
14
4.1
Dis
trib
utio
n co
mpa
nies
Nat
iona
l grid
1Abuj
a2B
enin3E
nugu
4Eko
5Ibad
an6I
keja
7Jos
8Kadu
na9K
ano10
Port H
arcour
11Yo
la
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-37
15
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Abuj
a%
5457
76
100
100
100
100
Benin
%80
82
9010
010
0
10
0
10
0En
ugu
%71
73
8610
010
0
10
0
10
0Ib
adan
%80
81
9010
010
0
10
0
10
0Ik
eja+E
KO%
9999
10
010
010
0
10
0
10
0Jo
s%
4042
56
75
100
100
100
Kadu
na%
4144
58
76
100
100
100
Kano
%36
38
49
62
79
100
100
Port
Harc
our
%61
64
8010
010
0
10
0
10
0Yo
la%
3032
42
56
75
10
010
0To
tal%
57
59
71
85
95
100
100
Abuj
a10
00 p
erso
ns5,
041
5,48
48,
331
12,6
3214
,441
16,4
6318
,711
Benin
1000
per
sons
13,6
3214
,337
18,3
8723
,473
27,0
0030
,966
35,3
32En
ugu
1000
per
sons
14,2
0714
,978
19,5
3025
,378
28,1
2731
,069
34,2
40Ib
adan
1000
per
sons
15,6
1216
,420
21,0
5926
,902
30,9
2835
,437
40,4
49Ik
eja+E
KO10
00 p
erso
ns11
,549
11,8
9513
,765
15,8
6118
,234
20,8
4123
,704
Jos
1000
per
sons
8,94
39,
737
14,8
5822
,608
34,3
1938
,943
44,0
17Ka
duna
1000
per
sons
8,53
29,
257
13,8
6920
,715
30,8
6634
,856
39,2
22Ka
no10
00 p
erso
ns9,
160
9,89
414
,499
21,1
6830
,828
44,7
5350
,892
Port
Harc
our
1000
per
sons
10,8
0311
,647
16,9
1024
,431
28,0
6532
,148
36,6
53Yo
la10
00 p
erso
ns4,
497
4,88
57,
361
11,0
7216
,582
24,7
9327
,750
Total
1000
per
sons
101,
977
108,
533
148,
568
204,
242
259,
390
310,
270
350,
969
Elec
trifie
d Po
pula
tion
Elec
trific
atio
n ra
te
4.2
DIS
CO w
ise
elec
trifi
catio
n ra
te a
nd e
lect
rifie
d po
pula
tion
Curr
ent
elec
trifi
catio
n ra
te is
57%
and
alm
ost
100%
in 2
030
Som
e D
ISCO
s ar
e 10
0% u
p to
202
5, a
nd s
ome
are
100%
in 2
030
Kano
and
Yol
a ar
e 10
0% in
203
5
16
4.3
DIS
CO w
ise
sect
oral
pow
er d
eman
d as
JIC
A Fo
reca
sts
17
4.4
DIS
CO w
ise
peak
dem
and
and
capa
city
(O
n gr
id)
Not
e:
Lago
s =
Ike
ja +
Eko
Tota
l(MW
)20
1520
2020
2520
3020
3520
40
Peak
7,40
011
,000
17,0
0027
,000
39,0
0056
,000
Cap
acity
8,70
014
,000
21,0
0033
,000
48,0
0070
,000
4.5
DIS
CO w
ise
pow
er d
eman
d (O
ff gr
id)
Off
grid
in D
ISCO
= T
otal
off
grid
*(1
-D
ISCO
ele
ctrif
ied
pop
/ To
tal e
lect
rifie
d po
p)
18
Orig
inal
For
ecas
ts:
Nat
iona
l Ren
ewab
le E
nerg
y an
d EE
&C
polic
y, A
pril
2015
P3
6
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-38
19
4.6
Per
cap
ita p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n (O
n+O
ff g
rid)
(ON
+ o
ff g
rid p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n) /
pop
ulat
ion
Japa
n fa
mily
use
2000
kWh
/per
son
Capa
city
(MW
)20
1520
2020
2520
3020
3520
40
On
grid
8,70
014
,000
21,0
0033
,000
48,0
0070
,000
On
& O
ff9,
200
14,3
0027
,000
59,0
0085
,000
111,
000
20
5.Co
mpa
rison
of
Nig
eria
Pow
er D
eman
d
5.1
Hig
h, B
ase,
Low
cas
es
Hig
h G
DP
9%Ba
se
GD
P 7%
Low
G
DP
5%
21
5.2
Tra
cteb
el,
ECN
and
JIC
A
Sour
ce :
Tr
acte
bel:
Nat
iona
l Loa
d D
eman
d St
udy
in 2
009
JICA
Stu
dy t
eam
: B
ase
case
(G
DP
7% /
yea
r)
in 2
016
ECN
201
5: N
atio
nal c
alcu
lato
r 20
50 p
ublis
hed
in 2
015
(Gre
ater
eff
ort
case
, G
DP
7% /
yea
r)
Peak
17G
W
Peak
70G
W
Peak
110
GW
22
5.3
Per
cap
ita p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n an
d pe
r ca
pita
GD
P
Sour
ceof
Cou
ntry
’s da
ta is
Wor
ld B
ank
data
bas
e
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-39
23
5.4
Per
cap
ita p
ower
dem
and
vs p
er c
apita
GD
P
The
poin
ts o
f th
e co
untr
ies
are
at 2
011
GD
P pe
r ca
pita
in a
ll co
untr
ies
are
2011
pric
esN
iger
ia p
oint
s ar
e 20
11, 20
20, 20
25, 20
30, 20
35 a
nd 2
040.
Sour
ceof
Cou
ntry
’s da
ta is
Wor
ld B
ank
data
bas
e
Viet
nam
24
Than
k yo
u
1.Po
wer
tar
iffes
timat
ion
fro
m N
ERC.
(Al
read
y ge
t)
2.D
isco
wis
e pe
ak d
eman
d fro
m T
CN-N
CC. (
Not
yet
)
3.Re
gion
al p
ower
dem
and
surv
ey fr
om F
icht
ner.
(Not
yet
)
Wai
ting
for
the
Dat
a
THE
PRO
JEC
TFO
RM
ASTE
R P
LAN
STU
DY
ON
NAT
ION
AL P
OW
ER S
YSTE
M
DEV
ELO
PMEN
TIN
THE
FED
ERAL
REP
UBL
IC O
F N
IGER
IA
Gen
erat
ion
Exp
ansi
on P
lan
4th
Febr
uary
201
6JI
CA
Stu
dy T
eam
Con
tent
s1.
Met
hodo
logy
2.E
xist
ing
pow
er p
lant
s in
Nig
eria
3.O
n-go
ing/
plan
ned
gene
ratio
n pr
ojec
ts4.
Varia
ble
cand
idat
es fo
r fut
ure
expa
nsio
n5.
Rel
iabi
lity
crite
ria-L
OLP
(Los
s of
Loa
d P
roba
bilit
y)6.
Prim
ary
ener
gy re
sour
ces
and
avai
labi
lity
7.P
ower
dev
elop
men
t sce
nario
s
2
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-40
1.M
etho
dolo
gy1.
1 An
alyt
ical to
ol u
sed
for p
ower
dev
elop
men
t pla
nnin
g
Sou
rce:
IAE
A (A
ug.2
009)
”Too
ls a
nd M
etho
dolo
gies
for E
nerg
y S
yste
m P
lann
ing
and
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Sys
tem
Ass
essm
ents
”
3
Pre
viou
s pr
esen
tatio
n (M
r. In
oue)
S
lide
2. E
xist
ing
pow
er p
lant
s
Slid
e 3
& S
lide
4
Slid
e 5
Loss
Of L
oad
Pro
babi
lity
Slid
e 6
Prim
ary
ener
gy re
sour
ces
Slid
e 7
Pol
icy
and
scen
ario
s
1.M
etho
dolo
gy1.
2 H
ow W
ASP
wor
ks?
•A
nop
timal
pow
erde
velo
pmen
tpl
anni
ngso
ftwar
ena
med
WA
SP
(Wie
nA
utom
atic
Sys
tem
Pla
nnin
gP
acka
ge,
Vers
ion
4.0.
3)de
velo
ped
byIA
EA
isus
edto
seek
the
leas
tcos
tpow
erde
velo
pmen
tpl
anth
atis
aco
mbi
natio
nof
vario
usty
pes
ofpl
ants
and
deve
lopm
entp
atte
rns.
•In
WA
SP,
apo
wer
deve
lopm
ent
plan
that
has
the
leas
tO
bjec
tive
Func
tion
(see
belo
wfo
rde
tails
)w
ithin
the
limita
tion
ofLO
LPan
dre
serv
em
argi
nis
soug
htth
roug
hth
eca
lcul
atio
n.•
OF
CS
VO
&M
whe
re,
OF
Obj
ectiv
e Fu
nctio
nC
Con
stru
ctio
n C
ost
SV
Sal
vage
Val
ueO
&M
Ope
ratio
nM
aint
enan
ce C
ost
4
2.Ex
istin
g po
wer
pla
nts
in N
iger
ia5
Cat
egor
yPo
wer
Pla
ntTy
peIn
stal
led
Cap
acity
(MW
)(O
n si
te c
apac
ity,*
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion)
Avai
labl
eC
apac
ity(M
W)
FGN
Succ
esso
rC
ompa
nies
(Hyd
ro)
Kai
nji
Dam
Hyd
ro76
080
MW
x4, 1
00M
Wx2
, 120
MW
x244
4Je
bba
Dam
Hyd
ro57
896
MW
x643
1S
hiro
roD
am H
ydro
600
150M
Wx4
508
Sub
Tota
l1,
938
1,38
3
FGN
Succ
esso
rC
ompa
nies
(The
rmal
)
Egb
inG
as (S
team
turb
ine)
1,32
022
0MW
x694
1A
fam
(IV&
V)
Gas
fire
d G
T72
875
MW
x6, 1
38M
Wx2
3D
elta
Gas
fire
d G
T90
025
MW
x12,
100
MW
x646
3S
apel
eG
as (S
team
turb
ine)
660
110M
Wx6
219
Ger
ugu
Gas
fire
d G
T41
413
8MW
x332
8O
loru
nsog
o I
Gas
fire
d G
T33
642
MW
x827
7O
mot
osho
Gas
fire
d G
T33
642
MW
x828
0Su
b To
tal
4,69
42,
511
NIP
P
Olo
runs
hogo
Com
bine
dcy
cle
700
GT:
112.
5MW
X4, S
T:12
5MW
x226
0A
laoj
iC
ombi
ned
cycl
e45
0 (1
,021
)*G
T:11
2.5M
Wx4
, ST:
285M
Wx2
158
Ger
ugu
Gas
fire
d G
T43
514
5MW
x315
9Ih
ovbo
rG
as fi
red
GT
450
112.
5MW
x437
4O
mot
osho
Gas
fire
d G
T45
011
2.5M
Wx4
306
Sap
ele
Gas
fire
d G
T45
011
2.5M
Wx4
184
Cal
abar
Gas
fire
d G
T(5
63)*
112.
5MW
x523
4G
bara
inG
as fi
red
GT
(225
)*11
2.5M
Wx2
0O
mok
uG
as fi
red
GT
(225
)*11
2.5M
Wx2
0E
gbem
aG
as fi
red
GT
(338
)*11
2.5M
Wx3
0Su
b To
tal
2,93
51,
675
IPP-
A (E
xist
ing)
Riv
erG
as fi
red
GT
180
180M
Wx1
0O
mok
u (G
T)G
as fi
red
GT
150
25M
Wx6
0A
SC
OG
as fi
red
GT
140
140M
Wx1
0Tr
ans-
Am
adi (
GT)
Gas
fire
d G
T10
025
MW
x40
Okp
aiC
ombi
ned
cycl
e48
015
0MW
x323
0Ib
omG
as fi
red
GT
188
112M
Wx1
, 38M
Wx2
91Af
am V
IC
ombi
ned
cycl
e60
015
0MW
x458
7A
ES
Gas
fire
d G
T27
030
MW
x917
5S
ub T
otal
2,10
81,
083
Gra
nd T
otal
(The
rmal
+ H
ydro
)11
,675
6,65
2
3.O
n-go
ing/
plan
ned
gene
ratio
n pr
ojec
ts (T
herm
al an
d R
enew
able)
6
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-41
3.O
n-go
ing/
plan
ned
gene
ratio
n pr
ojec
ts (H
ydro
)
Proj
ect
nam
eIn
stal
led
capa
city
(MW
)
Type
Loca
tion
Stat
usEx
pect
ed
com
plet
ion
Kas
him
billa
40D
amTa
raba
Und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
2015
Gur
ara-
I30
Dam
Nig
erD
am c
ompl
eted
Not
oper
able
with
out
trans
mis
sion
line
Dam
:201
1Tr
ansm
issi
on:
Und
erpl
anni
ngZu
nger
u70
0D
amN
iger
Und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
2017
Mam
billa
3,05
0D
amTa
raba
EPC
con
tract
sig
ned
in
2014
2020
Gur
ara-
II36
0D
amN
iger
Bid
pre
para
tion
N/A
7
4.Va
riabl
e ca
ndid
ates
for f
utur
e ex
pans
ion
Cap
acity
Effic
iency
*C
ost*
*Pl
ant l
ifeS
impl
e cy
cle
gas
turb
ine
100M
W c
lass
30.8
%$9
80/k
W30
yea
rs20
0MW
cla
ss34
.7%
$680
/kW
30 y
ears
Com
bine
dcy
cle
300M
W c
lass
51.4
%$9
80/k
W30
yea
rs50
0MW
cla
ss54
.0%
$941
/kW
30 y
ears
1,00
0MW
cla
ss55
.1%
$842
/kW
30 y
ears
Coa
l fire
d co
nven
tiona
l30
0MW
cla
ss40
.7%
$2,5
00/k
W40
yea
rs70
0MW
cla
ss42
.1%
$2,0
00/k
W40
yea
rs1,
000M
W c
lass
43.0
%$2
,000
/kW
40 y
ears
8
Ther
mal
can
dida
tes
Hyd
ro c
andi
date
sP
oten
tial h
ydro
site
s w
hich
are
iden
tifie
d th
roug
h a
stud
y na
med
“Scr
eeni
ng fo
rH
ydro
pow
er O
ptio
ns w
ith A
ssoc
iate
d W
ater
Res
ourc
es D
evel
opm
ent i
n th
eN
iger
Bas
in” a
ssis
ted
by th
e W
orld
Ban
k an
d co
nduc
ted
by T
ract
ebel
Eng
inee
ring
will
be
used
for t
he P
roje
ct. O
ut o
f 64
site
s id
entif
ied
by th
e W
Bst
udy,
20
to 3
0 si
tes
whi
ch h
ave
high
rank
ing
scor
es a
nd la
rge
capa
city
will
be
sele
cted
for h
ydro
can
dida
tes
for t
he P
roje
ct.
[Rem
arks
] *: H
HV
bas
e
[Sou
rce]
**: “
Upd
ated
Cap
ital C
ost E
stim
ates
for U
tility
Sca
le E
lect
ricity
Gen
erat
ing
Pla
nts”
(US
-EIA
), G
as T
urbi
ne W
orld
Han
dboo
k
5.R
elia
bility
crit
eria
-LO
LP (L
oss
of L
oad
Prob
abilit
y)•
The
LOLP
(Los
s O
f Loa
d P
roba
bilit
y) is
use
d as
the
indi
cato
r for
eva
luat
ing
the
relia
bilit
y of
pow
er s
uppl
y, a
nd th
e po
wer
dev
elop
men
t pla
n w
hich
satis
fies
the
targ
et L
OLP
will
be c
ompi
led.
•LO
LP is
def
ined
as
prob
able
dur
atio
n of
tim
e w
hen
pow
er s
uppl
y ca
paci
tyfa
lls s
hort
of p
ower
dem
and
due
to c
apac
ity o
utag
e as
follo
ws.
Oi
Cap
acity
out
age
amou
nt th
at c
ause
s su
pply
sho
rtage
Pi
Pro
babi
lity
that
cap
acity
out
age
of O
ihap
pens
t iTi
me
whe
n ca
paci
ty o
utag
e O
icon
tinue
sH
ence
,LO
LPP
it i
•LO
LP is
wid
ely
appl
ied
thro
ugho
ut th
e w
orld
as
a st
anda
rd o
f pow
er s
uppl
yre
liabi
lity:
NE
RC
(Nor
th A
mer
ican
Ele
ctric
Rel
iabi
lity
Cor
pora
tion)
ado
pts
aLO
LP o
f 1 d
ay /
10 y
ears
, whi
le P
LN in
Indo
nesi
a ad
opts
1 d
ay /
year
, and
CE
B (C
eylo
n E
lect
ricity
Boa
rd) a
dopt
s 3
days
/yea
r.•
In th
is P
roje
ct, i
t is
inte
nded
to a
dopt
LO
LP 1
day
/ ye
ar a
s th
e ta
rget
relia
bilit
y st
anda
rd.
9
6.Pr
imar
y en
ergy
reso
urce
s an
d av
aila
bility
6.1
Nat
ural
gas
rese
rve
in N
iger
ia•
Pro
ved
natu
ral g
as re
serv
e in
Nig
eria
is 1
80.1
Tcf
and
Res
erve
s-to
-P
rodu
ctio
n (R
/P) r
atio
is m
ore
than
100
yea
rs a
t end
of 2
014
(BP
Sta
tistic
al R
evie
w 2
015)
.•
Nat
ural
gas
use
d fo
r pow
erge
nera
tion
acco
unts
for 9
%of
tota
l gas
con
sum
ptio
n.(N
iger
ia P
ower
Bas
elin
e R
epor
t)•
Stil
l, na
tura
l gas
is a
prom
isin
g so
urce
of
pow
er g
ener
atio
n in
Nig
eria
.
10
[Sou
rce]
“Nig
eria
Pow
er B
asel
ine
Rep
ort”
(Sep
.201
5)A
dvis
ory
Pow
er T
eam
, Offi
ce o
f the
Vic
e P
resi
dent
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-42
6.Pr
imar
yen
ergy
reso
urce
san
d av
aila
bility
6.2
Coa
l res
erve
in N
iger
ia
11
Estim
ated
Prov
enD
epth
of
Res
erve
Res
erve
Coa
l[M
mt]
[Mm
t][m
]1
Okp
ara*
Enug
uSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s10
024
180
Unde
rgro
und
2O
nyea
ma*
Enug
uSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s15
040
-Un
derg
roun
d3
Ihio
ma
Imo
Lign
ite40
N/A
20-8
0Su
rface
4O
gboy
oga
Kogi
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
427
107
20-1
00Su
rface
and
und
ergr
ound
5O
gwas
hi A
zago
ba O
bom
kpa
Del
taLi
gnite
250
6315
-100
Surfa
ce a
nd u
nder
grou
nd6
Ezim
oEn
ugu
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
156
5630
-45
Surfa
ce a
nd u
nder
grou
nd7
Inyi
Enug
uSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s50
2025
-78
Surfa
ce a
nd u
nder
grou
nd
8La
fia/O
biNa
ssar
awa
Bitu
min
ous
(cok
able
)15
621
.42
80Un
derg
roun
d
9O
ba/N
new
iAn
ambr
aSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s30
N/A
18-3
8Un
derg
roun
d10
Afikp
o/O
kigw
eEb
onyi/
Imo
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
50N/
A20
-100
Unde
rgro
und
11Am
asio
doEn
ugu
Bitu
min
ous
(cok
able
)1,
000
N/A
563
Unde
rgro
und
12O
kaba
*Ko
giSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s25
073
20-1
00Su
rface
and
und
ergr
ound
13O
wuk
pa*
Benu
eSu
b-bi
tum
inou
s75
5720
-100
Surfa
ce a
nd u
nder
grou
nd14
Ogu
gu/A
wgu
Enug
uSu
b-bi
tum
inou
sN/
AN/
AN/
AUn
derg
roun
d15
Afuj
iEd
oSu
b-bi
tum
inou
sN/
AN/
AN/
AUn
derg
roun
d16
Ute
Ond
oSu
b-bi
tum
inou
sN/
AN/
AN/
AUn
derg
roun
d17
Doh
oG
ombe
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
N/A
N/A
N/A
Unde
rgro
und
18Ku
rum
uG
ombe
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
N/A
N/A
N/A
Unde
rgro
und
19La
mja
Adam
awa
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
N/A
N/A
N/A
Unde
rgro
und
20G
arin
Mai
gung
uG
ombe
Sub-
bitu
min
ous
N/A
N/A
N/A
Unde
rgro
und
21G
indi
n Ak
wat
iPl
atea
uSu
b-bi
tum
inou
sN/
AN/
AN/
AUn
derg
roun
d22
Jam
ato
Koji
Kwar
aSu
b-bi
tum
inou
sN/
AN/
AN/
AUn
derg
roun
d2,
734
461
Type
of c
oal
Stat
eM
ine
Loca
tion
S/No
Tota
l
Min
ing
Met
hod(
s)
7.Po
wer
dev
elop
men
t sce
nario
s7.
1 E
nerg
y se
ctor
pol
icy in
Nig
eria
•N
atio
nal E
nerg
y M
aste
r Pla
n 20
14•
Cha
pter
4 C
oal a
nd ta
r san
ds/B
itum
en•
The
natio
n sh
all e
nsur
e ad
equa
te s
uppl
y of
coa
l to
mee
t the
ene
rgy
requ
irem
ents
of t
he c
ount
ry in
a c
ost e
ffect
ive
and
sust
aina
ble
man
ner.
•C
hapt
er 5
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
•Th
e na
tion
shal
l pro
mot
e th
e de
velo
pmen
t of n
ucle
ar e
nerg
y an
d un
derta
keal
l act
iviti
es re
late
d to
pea
cefu
l use
s of
nuc
lear
ene
rgy
in it
s en
tire
ram
ifica
tion.
•C
hapt
er 6
Ren
ewab
le E
nerg
y•
Hyd
ro: T
he n
atio
n sh
all f
ully
har
ness
the
hydr
opow
er p
oten
tial i
n th
eco
untry
for e
lect
ricity
gen
erat
ion.
•So
lar:
The
natio
n sh
all a
ggre
ssiv
ely
purs
ue th
e in
tegr
atio
n of
sol
ar e
nerg
yin
to th
e na
tion’
s en
ergy
mix
, whi
ch s
houl
d be
bas
e on
the
esta
blis
hed
pote
ntia
ls a
nd a
vaila
ble
tech
nolo
gies
nat
ionw
ide.
•W
ind:
The
nat
ion
shal
l com
mer
cial
ly d
evel
op it
s w
ind
ener
gy re
sour
ce a
ndin
tegr
ate
this
with
oth
er e
nerg
y re
sour
ces
into
a b
alan
ced
ener
gy m
ix.
•C
hapt
er 8
Ele
ctric
ity•
The
natio
n sh
all p
ursu
e m
easu
res
to d
iver
sify
ene
rgy
sour
ces
for
elec
trici
ty s
uppl
y.•
The
natio
n sh
all e
nsur
e a
sust
aina
ble
supp
ly o
f gas
for e
lect
ricity
gene
ratio
n.
12
7.Po
wer
dev
elop
men
t sce
nario
s7.
1 E
nerg
y se
ctor
pol
icy in
Nig
eria
(con
t’d)
NAT
ION
AL
REN
EWA
BLE
EN
ERG
Y A
ND
EN
ERG
Y EF
FIC
IEN
CY
POLI
CY
(NR
EEEP
)R
enew
able
ele
ctric
ity ta
rget
s
13
Shor
t ter
m20
15M
ediu
mte
rm20
20Lo
ng te
rm20
30
Larg
e hy
dro
(MW
)2,
121
4,54
94,
627
Sm
all h
ydro
(MW
)14
01,
607
8,17
4
Sol
ar (M
W)
117
1,34
36,
831
Win
d (M
W)
5563
13,
211
Bio
mas
s (M
W)
557
292
% o
f Ren
ewab
les
with
Lar
gehy
dro
10%
18%
20%
% o
f Ren
ewab
les
with
out L
arge
hydr
o1.
30%
8%16
%
7.Po
wer
dev
elop
men
t sce
nario
s7.
2 S
cena
rio s
ettin
g
*1: A
1,0
00M
W c
oal f
ired
pow
er p
lant
con
sum
es 3
mill
ion
ton
of c
oal f
or o
ne y
ear,
90 m
illio
n to
n fo
r 30y
ears
. Con
side
ring
the
prov
ed re
serv
e of
461
milli
on to
n, th
e re
serv
e ca
n ac
com
mod
ate
up to
5,0
00M
W c
oal f
ired
pow
er p
lant
s.*2
: Mor
e pr
oved
coa
l res
erve
nee
ds to
be
iden
tifie
d.
14
Cap
acity
Sha
reEv
alua
tion
Gas
Coa
lH
ydro
and
R
enew
able
Cost
EnergyBalance
Environment
Sce
nario
-1(C
onse
rvat
ive)
70%
10%
*120
%
Sce
nario
-2(M
ore
coal
)60
%20
%*2
20%
Sce
nario
-3(N
o co
al)
75%
0%25
%
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-43
Nuc
lear
pow
er in
Nig
eria
?15
Nuc
lear
pow
er p
lant
s in
the
wor
ld (a
s of
Jan
. 201
6, IA
EA
stat
istic
s)
Com
paris
on o
f uni
t con
stru
ctio
n co
st
Type
Cap
acity
Uni
t Con
st. C
ost
Nuc
lear
1,10
0MW
$ 5,
600/
kWC
ombi
ned
cycl
e1,
000M
W$8
42/k
WC
oal f
ired
conv
entio
nal
1,00
0MW
$2,0
00/k
W[S
ourc
e] “U
pdat
ed C
apita
l Cos
t Est
imat
es fo
r Util
ity S
cale
Ele
ctric
ity G
ener
atin
g P
lant
s” (U
S-E
IA),
Gas
Tur
bine
Wor
ld H
andb
ook
Cur
rent
ly, th
ere
are
only
tw
o nu
clea
r pow
er p
lant
s in
Afri
ca (S
outh
Afri
ca)
1
2
1.
Wh
at
is S
tra
teg
ic E
nvi
ron
me
nta
l A
sse
ssm
en
t(S
EA
) ?
2.
SE
A i
n p
ow
er
pla
nn
ing
3.
Act
ivit
ies
in T
WG
fo
r E
SC
4.
Sco
pin
g o
f e
nvi
ron
me
nta
l a
nd
so
cia
l im
pa
cts
5.
Da
ta f
or
SE
A
6.
Nex
t S
EA
wo
rk p
lan
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-44
3
Ana
lytic
al a
nd p
artic
ipat
ory
appr
oach
that
aim
s to
in
tegr
ate
envi
ronm
enta
l con
side
ratio
ns in
to p
olic
ies,
pl
ans,
and
pro
gram
s, a
nd e
valu
ate
the
inte
r lin
kage
s w
ith e
cono
mic
and
soc
ial c
onsi
dera
tions
.”O
ECD
/DAC
, “Ap
plyi
ng S
trat
egic
Env
ironm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent:
good
pra
ctic
e gu
idan
ce fo
r dev
elop
men
t co
oper
atio
n” (2
006)
Ove
rall
proc
ess
for
SEA
:In
vest
igat
e m
ultip
le s
cena
rios
to b
e co
mpa
red
Inve
stig
ate
rele
vant
cum
ulat
ive
impa
cts
Scop
ing
of e
nvir
onm
enta
l and
soc
ial i
mpa
cts
Sta
keho
lder
mee
tings
(as
need
ed)
4
STR
ATE
GIC
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NTA
L A
SS
ES
SM
EN
T (S
EA
) IN
PO
WE
R P
LAN
NIN
G
5
AC
TIV
ITIE
S I
N T
EC
HN
ICA
L W
OR
KIN
G
GR
OU
P (
ES
C)
Gro
up
Me
eti
ng
1 (
Jan
. 1
9,
20
16
)S
EA
pro
cess
Sta
keh
old
er a
na
lysi
s -1
Gro
up
Me
eti
ng
2 (
Jan
. 2
5,
20
16
)S
take
hol
der
an
aly
sis
-2
Sco
pin
g d
iscu
ssio
n
6
SC
OP
ING
FO
R S
TRA
TEG
IC
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NTA
L A
SS
ES
SM
EN
T
Pot
entia
l im
pact
s of
the
pow
er s
yste
m d
evel
opm
ent
(Env
iron
men
tal p
ollu
tion
& N
atur
al e
nvir
onm
ent)
A+
/-: S
igni
fican
t pos
itive
/neg
ativ
e im
pact
B+
/-: P
ositi
ve/n
egat
ive
impa
ct to
som
e ex
tent
C: P
ositi
ve/n
egat
ive
impa
ct u
nkno
wn
D: N
o im
pact
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-45
7
SC
OP
ING
FO
R S
TRA
TEG
IC
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NTA
L A
SS
ES
SM
EN
TP
oten
tial i
mpa
cts
of t
he p
ower
sys
tem
dev
elop
men
t(S
ocia
l env
iron
men
t an
d ot
her
issu
es)
En
viro
nm
en
tal
reg
ula
tio
ns
rela
ted
to
po
we
rse
cto
r
CO
2:
Nig
eri
a’s
In
ten
de
d N
ati
on
all
y D
ete
rmin
ed
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns
in C
OP
21
Bio
div
ers
ity
an
d p
rote
cte
d a
rea
da
ta/m
ap
sN
ati
on
al
pa
rks,
in
tern
ati
on
all
y p
rote
cted
are
as
etc.
… A
nd
mo
re d
ata
ne
cess
ary
fo
r d
eta
ile
d S
EA
8
DA
TA F
OR
STR
ATE
GIC
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NTA
L A
SS
ES
SM
EN
T
9
NE
XT
SE
A W
OR
K P
LAN
Yu
rik
o K
ud
o
yr-k
ud
o@
intl
.ya
chiy
o-e
ng
.co
.jp
10
WE
WO
ULD
AP
PR
EC
IATE
YO
UR
C
OO
PE
RA
TIO
N
THA
NK
YO
U!
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-46
13th February 2017 2nd TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP
(PROGRESS WORKSHOP)
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-47
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-48
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-49
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-50
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-51
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-52
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-53
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-54