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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E march (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1553 1552 0.0 1171 32.6Other income 32 24 33.6 26 22.8
Operating profit 222 241 (7.7) 119 86.7
Interest 33 33 (0.7) 35 (6.6)
Adj. Net profit Profit/(loss) 110 137 (20.1) 30 262.4Source: Company, Angel Research
For 4QFY2013, Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals Ltd (APL) outperformed expectation
on the top-line front, while the bottom-line came in below expectations. The OPM
came lower than expectations (of 18.3%) at 14.3%. However, on back of lowertaxations, the adj. net profit came in at `110cr, still lower than our estimate of
`194cr. On back of improvement on the financial front and clearance of facilities
by the USFDA, the company expects sales to grow by 20.0% and OPM to expand
by 200-300bps for FY2014. We have a Buy recommendation on the stock.Sales higher than expected: Net sales grew strongly by 32.6% yoy to`1,553cr,led by a robust growth in formulations (41.4% yoy growth). The active
pharmaceutical ingredients (API) segment grew by 17.0% yoy. Formulations in key
geographies like the US, and Europe and rest of world (RoW) grew by 61.5% and
44.9% respectively. Gross margin came in at 48.2% (vs 45.2% in 4QFY2012) on
back of favourable product mix, thus impacting the OPM which came in at 14.3%
vs10.2% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This led the company to
post an Adj. net profit of`110cr.
Outlook and valuation: The commencement of operations at the Hyderabad SEZand incremental contribution from the Pfizer deal would boost APLs earnings
and provide better growth visibility going forward. We estimate net sales to log a
14.9% CAGR to`7,637cr over FY201315E on the back of supply agreements
in the US and antiretroviral (ARV) formulation contracts. Even after factoring
in lower profitability going forward, the stock trades at an attractive
valuation. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with aprice target of `271.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 4,551 5,783 6,641 7,637% chg 10.3 27.1 14.8 15.0
Net profit 198 432 560 657% chg (62.4) 118.2 29.7 17.2
Recurring profit 141 376 504 601% chg (57.4) 165.7 34.2 19.1
EPS (`) 6.8 14.8 19.3 22.6Recurring EPS 4.9 12.9 17.3 20.6EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 14.1 15.9 15.9
P/E (x) 36.6 13.8 10.3 8.6
RoE (%) 8.3 17.5 19.5 18.9
RoCE (%) 8.4 9.9 12.3 13.1
P/BV (x) 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.4
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 9.9 7.5 6.3
Source: Company, Angel Researc; Note: CMP as of June 3, 2013
BUYCMP `178
Target Price `271
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code ARBP@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 54.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 18.9
FII / NRIs / OCBs 17.3
Indian Public / Others 9.0
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 3.5 22.2 14.2
Aurobindo 19.5 75.5 11.2
Pharmaceutical
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (`cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
5,397
1.1
205/100
292,522
Net debt (`cr) 3,185
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
1
19,546
5,919
ARBN.BO
Sarabjit Kour Nangra+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
Aurobindo PharmaPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
June 4, 2013
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Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY2013 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1,553 1,552 0.0 1,171 32.6 5,783 4,551 27.1Other income 32 24 33.6 26 22.8 101 102 (0.8)Total income 1,584 1,576 0.6 1,197 32.4 5,884 4,652 26.5Gross profit 748 770 (2.8) 529 41.4 2,792 2,031 37.5
Gross margins 48.2 49.6 45.2 48.3 44.6Operating profit 222 241 (7.7) 119 86.7 817 533 53.2
OPM (%) 14.3 15.5 10.2 14.1 11.7Interest 33 33 - 35 - 131 103 27.8
Dep & amortisation 69 61 14.0 54 28.5 249 201 24.0
PBT 152 171 (11.0) 56 - 538 332 62.1
Provision for taxation 45 6 589.2 52 - 83 (89) -
Net profit 107 164 - 4 2,607.1 455 420 8.2Less : Exceptional items 1 73 (103) 163 545
MI & share in associates (1) (1) - (0) (2) (1) -
PAT after Exceptional items 109 92 18.3 108 - 294 (124) -Adjusted PAT 110 137 (20.1) 30 262.4 432 198 118.3EPS (`) 3.8 4.7 (20.1) 1.0 262.4 14.8 6.8 118.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:Actual v/s Estimate
(` cr) Actuals Estimate Variation %Net sales 1,553 1,233 26.0Other operating income 31.8 36 (11.5)
Operating profit 222 225 (1.3)
Tax 45 6 642.0
Adj. Net profit 110 194 (43.6)Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue up at 32.6% yoy; higher than expectations: Net sales grew by 32.6% yoyto `1,553cr, led by a robust growth in the formulations business (41.4% yoy
growth). Formulations in the key geographies like the US, and Europe and rest of
world (RoW) grew by 61.5% and 44.9% respectively.
The API segment grew by 21.7% yoy. Growth was led by the Ceph segment whichgrew by 26.2% yoy, while the SSP segment grew by 14.2% yoy.
As of March 2013, the company has 239 approved abbreviated new drug
applications (ANDAs) and 181 tentative approvals.
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Exhibit 3:Sales break-up (Consolidated)
(` cr) 4QFY2013 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chgFormulations 918 912 0.7 649 41.4 3,387 2,603 30.1US 486 513 (5.3) 301 61.5 1753 1184 48.1
Europe & ROW 249 223 11.6 172 44.9 884 633 39.8
ARV 183 175 4.4 176 3.9 750 787 (4.6)
API 667 660 1.0 570 17.0 2,536 2,062 23.0SSP 189 213 (11.5) 165 14.2 765 629 21.7
Cephs 244 245 (0.7) 193 26.2 937 746 25.6
NPNC 235 202 16.2 212 10.7 834 687 21.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands to 14.3% for the quarter: Gross margin came in at 48.2% (45.2% in4QFY2012), on back of favorable product mix. The OPM stood at 14.3% vs 10.2% in
the corresponding quarter of the previous year. For FY2014, the company expects
margins to be at 16-17%.
Exhibit 4:OPM Trend
10.2
15.6
15.5
15.5
14.3
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
4QFY2012 1QFY2013 2QFY2013 3QFY2013 4QFY2013
(%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit lower than estimates: For the quarter, the company posted an Adj. netprofit of`110cr, much lower than our expectation of `194cr. This was mainly on
back of lower-than-expected OPM and a higher-than-expected tax outgo.
Exhibit 5:Adj. net profit
30
7987
137
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
4QFY2012 1QFY2013 2QFY2013 3QFY2013 4QFY2013
(`
cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Management takeaways
The company has guided for a sales growth of 20% for FY2014 and 22% in
FY2015.
US sales are expected to be around 30-35% in FY2014.
The Management has guided for 16-20 new launches in the US in FY2014.
A margin expansion of 200-300bps has been guided by the Management in
the coming quarters.
The tax rate is expected to be around 20% in FY2014.
Capex for FY2014 is expected to be`250cr
Recommendation rationale Supply agreements to drive growth: APL has increased its filing (ANDAs and
dossiers) dramatically from 313 in FY2008 to 1,647 in FY2013, as it proposes
to scale up from SSP and Cephs to NPNC products. Further, the companys
transformation from being a pure API supplier to becoming a formidable
formulations player has increased its cost efficiencies, as 90% of its
formulation is now backward integrated. Thus, to leverage on its cost efficiency
and strong product filings, APL has entered into long-term supply agreements
with Pfizer (March 2009) and AstraZeneca (September 2010), which provides
significant revenue visibility going ahead. APL is also in discussion with other
MNCs for more supply agreements.
US and ARV formulation segments the key drivers for base business: APLsbusiness, excluding the supply agreements, would primarily be driven by the
US and ARV segments on the formulation front. The company has been an
aggressive filer in the US market, with 239 ANDAs filed until FY2013.
Amongst peers, APL has emerged as one of the top ANDA filers. The company
has aggressively filed ANDAs in the last few years and is now geared to reap
benefits, even though most of the filings are for highly competitive products.
APL expects to file 1520 ANDAs every year going forward. Going ahead,
with US$70bn going off-patent in the US over the next three years, we believe
APL is well placed to tap this opportunity. APL is one of the largest genericsuppliers under ARV contracts, with a 35% market share. The company enjoys
high market share as it is fully integrated in all its products apart from having
a larger product basket.
Outlook and valuation
The commencement of operations at the Hyderabad SEZ and incremental
contribution from the Pfizer deal would boost APLs earnings and provide better
growth visibility going forward. We estimate net sales to log a 14.9% CAGR to
`7,637cr over FY201315E on the back of supply agreements
in the US and antiretroviral (ARV) formulation contracts. Even after factoringin lower profitability going forward, the stock trades at an attractive
valuation. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation with aprice target of `271.
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Exhibit 6:Key assumptions
FY2014E FY2015ESales Growth (%) 14.8 15.0
Operating Margins (%) 15.9 15.9
Capex (`cr) 250 250
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:One-year forward PE
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
Feb-06
Oct-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
5x 10x 15x 20x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:Recommendation summary
Company Reco CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2015E FY12-15E FY2015E(`) (`) % PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma. Neutral 137 - - 9.8 1.3 6.9 26.1 34.0 34.7
Aurobindo Pharma Buy 178 271 52.8 8.6 1.0 6.3 61.9 13.0 18.9Cadila Healthcare Buy 772 909 17.7 16.1 2.0 11.1 12.7 15.4 23.1
Cipla Buy 369 444 20.3 16.6 2.5 11.3 15.9 15.7 15.9Dr Reddy's Buy 2,113 2,535 19.9 16.7 2.4 11.9 12.8 18.3 21.8
Dishman Pharma Buy 69 168 144.3 4.1 0.8 3.7 33.7 11.0 11.2
GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,661 - - 31.9 6.3 22.0 6.1 36.1 31.0
Indoco Remedies Buy 65 78 20.0 8.3 0.8 5.5 15.8 15.3 14.7
Ipca labs Accumulate 606 665 9.8 13.7 2.1 9.7 24.9 24.8 25.4
Lupin Buy 753 877 16.5 18.0 2.4 11.2 29.1 28.5 24.8Ranbaxy* Neutral 362 - - 16.1 1.2 9.3 (6.8) 13.1 19.1Sanofi India* Neutral 2,608 - - 26.3 2.6 15.7 13.4 15.9 16.7
Sun Pharma Neutral 1018 - - 25.6 6.0 14.5 18.8 29.4 22.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
Company background
Aurobindo Pharma manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and active
pharmaceutical ingredients. The companys manufacturing facilities are approved
by several leading regulatory agencies like the USFDA, UK MHRA, WHO, Health
Canada, MCC South Africa and ANVISA Brazil among others. The companysrobust product portfolio is spread over six major therapeutic/product
areas encompassing antibiotics, anti-retrovirals, cvs, cns, gastroenterologicals,
and anti-allergics.
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Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 3,446 4,225 4,619 5,863 6,742 7,754Less: Excise duty 76 100 69 80 101 116Net Sales 3,370 4,126 4,551 5,783 6,641 7,637Other operating income 206 256 77 72 72 72Total operating income 3,575 4,381 4,627 5,855 6,713 7,710% chg 16.2 22.5 5.6 26.5 14.7 14.8
Total Expenditure 2,752 3,422 4,017 4,966 5,585 6,422
Net Raw Materials 1,777 2,189 2,520 2,792 3,088 3,551
Other Mfg costs 338 411 475 578 664 764
Personnel 327 429 536 663 762 876
Other 310 804 487 932 1,071 1,231
EBITDA 617 704 533 817 1,057 1,215% chg 65.1 14.0 (24.3) 53.2 29.3 15.0
(% of Net Sales) 18.3 17.1 11.7 14.1 15.9 15.9
Depreciation& Amortisation 149 172 201 249 279 309
EBIT 468 532 409 568 778 906% chg 90.0 13.8 (23.2) 38.8 36.9 16.5
(% of Net Sales) 13.9 12.9 9.0 9.8 11.7 11.9
Interest & other Charges 73 62 103 131 131 131
Other Income 44 25 25 29 29 29
(% of PBT) 6.9 3.4 7.5 5.3 3.8 3.3
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 645 751 331 538 747 876% chg 100.0 16.4 (55.9) 62.3 39.0 17.2
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (109.5) (37.2) 544.5 163.4 - -
PBT (reported) 754 788 (213) 374 747 876Tax 191.4 225.1 (88.8) 82.7 186.8 218.9
(% of PBT) 25.4 28.6 41.6 22.1 25.0 25.0
PAT (reported) 563 563 (125) 291 560 657Less: Minority interest (MI) (0) (0) (1) (2) - -
PAT after MI (reported) 563 563 (124) 294 560 657ADJ. PAT 454 526 198 432 560 657% chg 50.7 15.9 (62.4) 118.5 29.7 17.2
(% of Net Sales) 16.7 13.7 (2.7) 5.1 8.4 8.6
Basic EPS (`) 20.2 19.3 6.8 10.1 19.2 22.6Diluted EPS (`) 16.3 18.1 6.8 14.9 19.2 22.6% chg 45.4 10.9 (62.4) 119.4 29.2 17.2
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Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 28 29 29 29 29 29Share Application Money - - - - - -
Reserves & Surplus 1,801 2,416 2,311 2,577 3,120 3,760
Shareholders Funds 1,829 2,445 2,340 2,606 3,149 3,789Minority Interest 4 9 10 11 11 11Long-term provisions 3 4 9 9 9
Total Loans 2,155 1,758 3,096 3,384 3,384 3,384
Deferred Tax Liability 91 119 2 68 68 68
Total Liabilities 4,079 4,334 5,452 6,069 6,613 7,252APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 2,312 2,387 3,032 3,316 3,566 3,816
Less: Acc. Depreciation 697 699 892 1,140 1,419 1,728
Net Block 1,615 1,688 2,141 2,175 2,146 2,088Capital Work-in-Progress 570 657 645 645 645 645
Goodwill 96 51 54 55 55 55
Investments 0.3 39 39 22 22 22Long-term loans and adv. 111 108 243 243 243
Current Assets 2,506 3,322 3,248 4,128 4,878 5,783
Cash 73 188 71 208 377 607
Loans & Advances 375 505 315 332 381 439
Other 2,058 2,629 2,863 3,587 4,119 4,737
Current liabilities 708 1,534 784 1,200 1,378 1,584
Net Current Assets 1,798 1,788 2,465 2,928 3,500 4,199Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 4,079 4,334 5,452 6,069 6,613 7,252
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Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 752 751 (213) 374 747 876
Depreciation 149 172 201 249 279 309(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital (261) 236 (796) (191) (404) (468)
Less: Other income 44 25 25 29 29 29
Direct taxes paid (153) (180) 89 (83) (187) (219)
Cash Flow from Operations 443 952 (745) 321 407 469(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (400) (470) (633) (283) (250) (250)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (9) (38) - (16) - -
Other income 44 25 25 29 29 29
Cash Flow from Investing (365) (483) (608) (271) (221) (221)Issue of Equity 5 1 - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (1) (389) 1,340 288 - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (29) (34) (34) (17) (17) (17)
Others (109) 67 (70) (183) - -
Cash Flow from Financing (132) (354) 1,236 88 (17) (17)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (54) 115 (117) 138 169 230
Opening Cash balances 128 73 188 71 208 377Closing Cash balances 73 188 71 208 377 607
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 10.9 9.8 26.2 11.9 9.2 7.9P/CEPS 6.9 7.0 67.4 9.5 6.2 5.4
P/BV 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV/Sales 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0
EV/EBITDA 11.4 9.4 15.2 9.9 7.5 6.3
EV / Total Assets 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 20.2 19.3 6.8 10.1 19.2 22.6
EPS (fully diluted) 16.3 18.1 6.8 14.9 19.2 22.6
Cash EPS 25.6 25.2 2.6 18.6 28.8 33.2
DPS 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
Book Value 65.7 84.0 80.4 89.5 108.1 130.1
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 13.9 12.9 9.0 9.8 11.7 11.9
Tax retention ratio 74.6 71.4 58.4 77.9 75.0 75.0
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.8 9.9 5.1 8.0 9.8 10.7
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 2.4 2.3 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.9
Leverage (x) 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8
Operating ROE 20.6 16.7 7.6 14.0 17.2 17.2
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 12.1 12.7 8.4 9.9 12.3 13.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 15 16 10 12 15 16
ROE 29.6 24.6 8.3 17.5 19.5 18.9
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1
Inventory / Sales (days) 101 107 98 98 101 104
Receivables (days) 94 92 115 129 133 137
Payables (days) 74 118 237 78 80 80
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 169 139 158 159 159 159
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7
Net debt to EBITDA 3.4 2.2 5.7 3.9 2.8 2.3
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 6.4 8.5 4.0 4.3 5.9 6.9
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Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Aurobindo Pharma
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)