Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios
Presentation| 3 Décembre 2019
2
AGENDA
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN
POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
WLTP ANALYSIS
3Advancy Insights
Recession case: 2008 Global Financial Crisis
RECESSION CASE
Between 2000 and 2007, passenger cars production increased by +3.1% p.a. and wasstrongly impacted by the 2008 global crisis, with -c.8%p.a. decrease between ’07-’09
PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION | IN M UNIT, 2000-2018
Scope: Passenger Cars; LCV out of scopeSources: IHS, Advancy analysis and research
2003
47.7
15%
7%
28%
20022000 2001 20102004 2005 2006 2007
44.9
2008 2015
18%
48.3
21%
14%
30%
20142009 2011 2012
MEA49.8
2013 2016
Europe
2017
4%9%
30%
16%
51.8
24%
2018
Japan/Korea
38%
SouthAmerica
24%South Asia
China
NorthAmerica
8%
59.9
46.1
54.357.3
46.7
62.366.4
69.372.0 73.6
77.9 79.9 79.4
55.3
CAGR: +3.1% CAGR: -8.2%
CAGR: +5.7%
4Advancy Insights
100
9471
87 9096 97 100 102 103 101 100100
163173
202213
268 268
100
84
105 109116
121126 129
136 139 139
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
100
105
97
216
182
127
247
2008 Global Financial crisis: total market
In 2008 and 2009, mature markets were severely impacted by the global financialcrisis, while emerging markets production continued to grow at slower pace
Notes: (1) Mature markets: North America, Europe, Japan / Korea (2) Emergings: China, South Asia, South America, Middle East/ AfricaSources: IHS, Advancy analysis and research
PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION | WORLDWIDE, 2007-2018, INDEX 100 = 2007
RECESSION CASE
The global passenger cars production reached its trough in 2009 (-16pts vs. peak)
Developed markets (-29pts vs. 2007)
₋ Impacted by strong decrease in the USA (-41pts), Japan / Korea (-26pts) and Europe (-23pts)
₋ Recovered pre-crisis level in 5 years
Emerging markets:
₋ While the passenger car production grew by +15%p.a. between 2000-2007, the global financial crisis slowed down growth, at +5% in 2008, but with fast acceleration in 2009 (+21%), mainly driven by China
Mature(1) TotalEmerging(2)
5Advancy Insights
Increasing motorization rate: Growth by increasing needs for mobility
Mature motorization rate:Growth driven by old cars
renewal linked to environmental regulation
New vehicle sales: passenger car production by region (excluding Light Commercial Vehicle)
MARKET DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS
Since 2009, most of the production growth has been driven by China (50%)
Note: 1) Per person ; 2) 2015 Data Source: OICA, National Bureau of Statistics, Advancy analysis
PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION BY REGION| 2009-2018, MILLIONS OF VEHICLES
Low motorization rate: 118 veh. per 1000 inhabitants vs. 182 in average worldwide and 580 in EU
Improving disposable income, savings and low private debt- Avg disposable income: +8% p.a.- Total Savings deposit: +10% p.a.
2009
9
15
North America
7
6
18
Europe
448
North America
15
China
6
RoW
19
13
24
24
2018
Europe
China
RoW
79
c.50% of total growth
+2.9% +7.5% +11.8% +3.1% +5.7%CAGR
‘09-’18
CHINESE ACCOUNTS FOR 50 % OF WOLRDWIDE PRODUCTION GROWTH
Total savings deposit
Avg disposable income1
36k
25k30k
45k+8%p.a
+9%p.a
2012 2017581 670 118 182Motorization %veh./ 1000 inhab.2
NEW VEHICLE SALES
6Advancy Insights
RECESSION CASE
Recession case: Market evolution since 2008 Global Financial crisis
Since 2008, the context has changed for the automotive industry on 5 major aspects
VEHICLES MIX
Acceleration of market price polarization (% Premium + Low cost vs. Mid-range) Share of SUV vs. other body types Share of Electrical vehicle Share of Diesel
CONTENT / VEH. EVOLUTION
(AV & PRICE PRESSURE)
Higher pressure on prices for new modules / techno Semi-conductors content per car increase & risk of shortage / squeeze if scrapping programs aggressively
push for EV
INDUSTRY IMAGE Loss of credibility of Auto industry given past scandals (e.g. Diesel Gate) Negative perception given environmental impacts
MACRO-ECO / GEOPO. / SOCIETAL
CONTEXT
Protectionism on the rise (USA, UK, Brazil…) US/ China trade war New environmental norms (WLTP) Higher customers / companies indebtedness Urbanization increase Rise of shared mobility and multi modality
WHAT CHANGES ?
OEMVOLUME
Weight of Chinese market on total market/ stronger impact in absolute volume given larger market size / higher share of Chinese OEM sales
OEM platforming and partnership (e.g. Ford and VW, BMW & Daimler) % Fleet in new car sales OEM internalization on new value space
NEW ENTRANTS New market entrants:
Entry of cash rich players (e.g. semi-conductors, Internet players) with ambition in Auto New OES entrants from emerging countries (e.g. China and India)
7
AGENDA
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN
POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
WLTP ANALYSIS
8Advancy Insights
CYCLE EFFECT CRISIS SEVERE CRISIS
Index 100=2017 Index 100=2017 Index 100=2017Index 100=2017
IHS BEST CASE BASE CASE WORST CASE #1 WORST CASE #2
SCENARIO
Continued growth from 2018 to 2025 (+2.3% p.a.)
IHS forecast Jan 2019
Volume drop in 2019-20 affecting:- Mature: North America and Europe- Emergings: China only
2019 volume updated based on current OEM market view
Stronger volume drop in 2019-20 affecting:- Mature: North America and Europe- Emergings: China, South Asia, South America and MEA
2019 volume based on 2019 H1 production
Less stronger crisis than 2008 global financial crisis in mature markets
But also impacting emerging markets
Volume catch-up effect afterwards, similar to 2008 crisis
Same as Worst case 1 With slower recovery of
the renewal Chinese market
PEAK TO TROUGH
(vs. 2018 level)- -3 pts - 7 pts -14 pts -14 pts
TIME TO RECOVERY
(vs. 2018 level)- 4 years 5 years 6 years 6 years
CAGR 2018-2025
+2.3%p.a. +1.5%p.a. +0.9%p.a. +1.5%p.a. +1.2%p.a.
RECESSION CASE
Source: Advancy analysis and research
Recession case: Scenarios (Passenger Cars)
Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018
We have modeled 4 crisis scenarios: two cycle effect crisis, with volume drop in 2019and 2020, and x2 severe crisis, with different recovery pace in China
9Advancy Insights
Passenger car: worldwide production
MARKET DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS
Between 2018 and 2025, according to IHS passenger car production is expected togrow at +c.2%p.a., mainly driven by China and South-Asia
Sources: IHS, Advancy analysis
2011 2018 2025F
North America 11 13 13
+3% 0%
2011 2018
South America
2025F
3 43-3% +4%
2011 2018 2025F
MEA 32 2+2% +4%
24
2011 2018 2025F
30China 13
+9% +3%
Japan/Korea
2011 2018 2025F
11 12 12
+1% 0%
2025F2011
21Europe
2018
18 19
+1% +1%
2025F
5
20182011
South Asia 7 11
+5% +7%
WORLDWIDE PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION| MILLIONS OF VEHICLE, 2011-2025F
20182011 2025F
9362
79
+4%+2%TOTAL
NEW VEHICLE SALES
BASE CASE ADVANCY: +0.9%P.A. PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION GROWTH BETWEEN 2018 AND 2025
IHS
10Advancy Insights
Volume forecast hypothesis by scenario x region
VOLUME EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
Cumulated vision 2017-2020: shift from -6M to -18M vehicles vs. IHS depending onthe scenario
Notes: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales level; 2) Positive impact of emerging countries on Total MarketSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis
YEARLY VOLUME FORECAST | M VEHICLES, 2017-2020SELL-IN x PC
PASSENGER CAR
IHS
23.9 22.6
19.519.3
13.2
13.1
12.0
2017
25.6
12.5
11.5
13.2
18.6
12.5
21.2
Base
22.4
11.2
Best
12.5
11.2
13.2
16.3
9.1
11.0
12.6
Worst 1
21.2
16.3
9.1
11.0
12.6
Worst 2
11.6
Europe
NAFTA
Japan
RoW
82.3
China
77.8
70.2 70.2
18.4
79.9 78.2
2020 Delta vs. IHS
-4.1 M -4.5 M -12.0 M -12.0 M
Cum. Delta vs. IHS (17/20)
-6.2 M -6.8 M -18.4 M -18.4 M
CAGR 18-20 +1.8% -0.8% -1.0% -6.0% -6.0%
China taking the “bump” at a -2.5% CAGR in BASE scenarios and -2% in BEST (CAAM -2% growth rate projection for 2019 is here extended until 2020); more severe crisis applied in Worst#1/#2 scenarios
Europe also facing a differentiated “bump” in 18-20 on Base (-1.5% p.a.) and Worst#1/#2 (-7.4% p.a.)
NAFTA and emerging countriesvolumes forecasted with IHS figures unchanged for the 2018-2020 period except for Worst#1/#2 following 2008 crisis pattern and assuming a contagion effect to ROW
IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2
HYPOTHESES
2017-2020
11Advancy Insights
Volume forecast hypothesis by scenario x region
Cumulated vision 2017-2025: decrease from -32M to -70M vehicles vs. IHS dependingon the scenario
Notes: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales level; 2) Positive impact of emerging countries on Total MarketSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis
YEARLY VOLUME FORECAST| M VEHICLES, 2017-2025SELL-IN x PC
PASSENGER CAR
Europe 19.219.3
29.7
13.1
2017
20.6
12.0
11.6
13.3
Worst 2
17.6
11.7
17.6
18.4
IHS
26.2
13.3
11.5
24.1
13.3
11.5
17.6
13.1
Base
China 26.2
84.9
19.2
11.1
23.4
18.4
Worst 1
13.1
Best
18.4
NAFTA
Japan
RoW
19.7
11.1
79.9
92.888.2 87.9
23.9
85.1
2025 Delta vs. IHS
-4.6 M -8.0 M -4.9 M -7.7 M
Cum. Delta vs. IHS (17/25)
-31.8 M -43.1 M -62.2 M -70.2 M
CAGR 20-25 +2.5% +2.5% +1.8% +4.6% +3.9%
IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2
2017-2025
The reaction of China in the aftermath of the crisis will be the key driver for the PC market
In the scenarios where China becomes a mature Auto market (Base case & Worst case #2), 2025 Chinese volumes will be reduced by up to -20% vs. IHS
In Worst case scenarios, the cumulated impact represents up to 75% of worldwide production, creating structural over-capacity at OEM & OES level
HYPOTHESES
VOLUME EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
12Advancy Insights
97102
108109
126
98
104
117
60
70
110
80
120
100
2023F2022F
90
2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2024F 2025F
100 102
96
Δ vs. lowest
-3pt
-
Time for recovery1
1 year
-
Recession case: IHS volume
IHS: no global decrease forecasted in 2019-2020, except Japan / Korea and NAFTA,with long term growth especially in China (slowdown assumed to be starting in 2024)
Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: IHS January 2019, expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis
IHS assumptions based on compiled OEM data and IHS analysis
Mature markets (+0.5%p.a. between 2018-2025):- USA: expected to decrease in 2019 and 2020 (-0.7 and -2.8%%)- Europe: +1.1%p.a. growth over the period- Japan/ Korea: -0.2% decrease over the period
Emerging markets (+4.2%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: slowdown assumed to start in 2024- South America and South Asia: continued growth forecasted
COMMENTS
China
Europe
NAFTA
Total
Japan/ Korea
- -
IHS
-4pts >7 years
- -
PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018
RECESSION CASE
13Advancy Insights
100 101
96
103
91
102104
97
111
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2024F2021F2018 2022F2020F2019F 2023F 2025F
Δ vs. lowest
-4pts
-4pts
Time for recovery1)
6 years
5 years
Recession case: best case
Best case: light cycle effect in 2019 and 2020, with global production recovery in 4years
Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis
NAFTA
Europe
China
Japan/ Korea
Total
-9pts 5 years
- -
-3pts 4 years
PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018
RECESSION CASE
Mature markets (+0.4%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: cycle effect in 2019 and 2020 (-1.8%), following US sales peak in 2016 (17.6M unit sales) and sales plateau since- Europe: similar to NAFTA, with stronger decline in 2019/ 2020 (-3% /-1%), driven by new WLTP and Brexit effect- Japan/ Korea: sales forward driven production growth in 2019, driven by expected 2019 consumption tax increase
Emerging markets (+2.8%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: slowdown of -6% in 2019 and -3% in 2020, driven by US/ Chinese trade war and lower Chinese demand- Other: stabilization of production in Iran, slowdown of South America production in 2019 and 2020 and continued growth in South Asia
COMMENTS
BEST CASE
14Advancy Insights
100
95101
96
86
107
101 104
93
107
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2019F 2023F2018 2020F 2021F 2022F 2025F2024F
94
Δ vs. lowest
-5pts
-6pts
Time for recovery1)
6 years
>7 years
Recession case: base case (scenario Advancy)
Base case – Scenario Advancy: stronger cycle effect impact in 2019 and 2020, withglobal production recovery in 5 years
Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis
NAFTA
Total
Europe
China
Japan/ Korea
-15pts 6 years
- -
-7pts 5 years
PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018
RECESSION CASE
Mature markets (+0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: stronger decline in 2019 and 2020 vs. best case (-2.5%), similar to H1 2019- Europe: stronger decline in 2019 (-3% p.a.)- Japan/ Korea: more limited growth than in base case (+1% in 2019)
Emerging markets (+2%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: stronger slowdown of China production in 2019 than best case(-10%p.a., similar to H1 2019), but with faster recovery- Other: contagion of China production decrease in South Asia, with -1.5% decrease in 2019-2020 and fast recovery
COMMENTS
BASE CASE
15Advancy Insights
100
89
98
80
106
111
86
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2021F2018 2019F 2020F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
117
87
Δ vs. lowest
-20pts
-11pts
Time for recovery1)
5 years
>7 years
Recession case: worst case #1
Worst case #1: lighter effect than 2008 crisis in mature markets, but also impactingemerging markets, including China, with global production recovery in 6 years
Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis
NAFTA
Japan/ Korea
China
Europe
Total
-20pts 6 years
-13pts 4 years
-14pts 6 years
PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018
RECESSION CASE
Mature markets (+1.0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: lower effect than 2008 crisis, with higher protectionism, and similar recovery pace (5 years)- Europe: lower effect than in 2008 (-23pts), given recent recovery of 2007 level (2017), but also including Brexit effect (-0.5M unit), and slower recovery pace (+1.8%p.a. between 2020-2025)- Japan/ Korea: lower peak to trough than in 2008, as 2008 pre-crisis level not recovered
Emerging markets (+2.1%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: similar crisis effect than for NAFTA (-20pts), with recovery in 6 years, driven by government push (+c.6%p.a. between 2020-2025 )- Other: crisis contagion in the other markets: South Asia (-3pts at peak), South America (-2pts), and MEA (-13pts. in 2019 then positive growth)
COMMENTS
WORST CASE #1
16Advancy Insights
100
117
89
98
80
97
111
86
108
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2022F2019F2018 2021F2020F 2023F 2024F 2025F
87
100
Δ vs. lowest
-20pts
-11pts
Time for recovery1)
5 years
>7 years
Recession case: worst case #2
Worst case #2: similar peak to trough than in Worst case #1, but with slowerrecovery of China production (>7 years vs. 6 years)
Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis
China
NAFTA
Europe
Japan/ Korea
Total
-20pts >7 years
-13pts 4 years
-14pts 6 years
PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018
RECESSION CASE
Mature markets (+1.0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- Same assumptions than Worst Case #1
Emerging markets (+1.4%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: similar peak to trough than in worst case #1 (-20pts), but with slower recovery between 2020-2025 (China becoming a renewal market) - Other: same scenario than Worst Case #1
COMMENTS
WORST CASE #2
17
AGENDA
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN
POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
WLTP ANALYSIS
18Advancy Insights
Volume forecast hypothesis by powertrain mix
OES ADDRESSABLE MARKET - ELECTRIFICATION
We see slightly less electrified cars than IHS in all scenarios. The key differencesstem from the portion of PHEV & BEV in the mix
Notes: 1) Excluding bateriesSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis
PASSENGER CAR
VOLUME FORECAST BY POWERTRAIN MIX | VOLUME IN M VEHICLES, POWERTRAIN MIX IN % COMMENTS
25
76
88
2017 Best
23
49
9
4747
30
55
Worst 1
8
46
85
5
93 M
45
5
Base
80 M
48
43
IHS
3
28
43
25
3
88 85
6
Worst 2
2025
IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2
# electrified vehicles (M units)
Addressable market (€Bn)1)
ICE Hybrid-Mild PHEVHybrid Full EV1
ELECTRIFICATION
In Best and Base scenarios, PHEV and BEV are expected to remain above c.10M Veh in 2025, but only reach c.6MVeh in worst case scenarios
Due to CO2 emissions constraints, we assume that the portion of Mild Hybrid will rise to balance OEM targets, especially in the Worst case scenarios where the economic downturn is also likely to make consumers more sensitive about fuel consumption, thus boosting mild powertrain electrification
4,1 43,7 41,0 38,9 40,1 38,4
5,7 39,6 37,1 30,1 26,5 25,3
19
AGENDA
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN
POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO
WLTP ANALYSIS
20Advancy Insights
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
201812017201620152012 2013 2014
2020/21 avg. target: 95g/km
Passenger cars average CO2 emissions for selected brands
POWERTRAIN MIX FORECASTS - EUROPEAN MARKET
In Europe, brands facing challenging EU CO2 emission targets for 2021 and 2030requiring important electrification of their sales mix
Note: 1) Unofficial values, PA consulting estimatesSource : ICCT, PA consulting, Advancy analysis
EU NEW PASSENGER CARS CO2 EMISSIONS (NEDC) BY BRAND| 2012-2018, G/KM
PENALTY DRIVERS
OEM LEVERS
• CO2 target calculated based on average veh. weight of EU sales
• Penalty calculated for each gram of CO2 above target on the basis of 95€ /gm for each veh. sold
• Target lowered every year to reach less than 67g (NEDC) in 2030
• Battery EV emitting 0gm/km but high battery price preventing mass B2C adoption
• PHEV/FHEV generating a “super green bonus” (e.g. vehicles with less than 50g are overweight in performance calculation in in the limit of 7.5g)
• Entry level/less equipped/small displacement ICE having lower CO2 emissions
• Restricting high emission versions
• Diesel engines keeping an advantage in CO2 vs. petrol
2025/2030 avg. target: 81g/km
2030+ avg. target: 67g/km
21Advancy Insights
Zoom on BEV, FCEV and PHEV per car segment
BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF
222 models will be on the market by 2021, and volumes per model will be very low. B& C segments are among highest volume
Source: IHS, Advancy analysis
SPLIT OF AVAILABLE MODELS IN 2021 PER SEGMENT & PER OEM | 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE
NUMBER OF BEV+PHEV MODELS ON THE MARKET IN 2021| CUMUL #, 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE
32
60
76
18
27
30
50
25
33
46
56
317
130 1811
14
162
90
32
8
4
2017
10
6
D
A
2021
222
B
F
70
C
E
2018
9
10
0 3
113
2019
83
2020
AVG 2021 VOL. PER MODEL (KVEH)
0,5
6.9
7.0
10.6
16.6
15.4
44
C
F
Others
D
E
5
13
6
24
26
13
6
13
9
R-N-M
14
Daimler
27
1
4
1
5
TataGeely
6
15
8
1
6
PSA
8
1
1
3
2
1
BMW
8
8
7
4
Ford
8
22
10
2
FCA
5
B
A
4
4
25
6
25
Volkswagen
1
11
58
9
TOTAL = 222 MODELS
22Advancy Insights
Sales vs. production of PHEV & BEV in Western & Eastern Europe
BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF
OEMs are betting on high share of EV sales to meet targets in 2020 & 2021 but EVmarket in EU has still not taken off and will require massive public investment
1. Assuming cumulative investments of c. €2-3B in charging infrastructure, and a direct consumer subsidy of €1-3K per PHEV / BEV soldSource: ACEA, IHS, T&E, Advancy analysis
ACTUAL SALES & PRODUCTION FORECAST OF PHEV + BEV | 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, MVEH, % MS, ‘000S CHARGING POINTS
0,4
0,20,2
0,3
0,1
0,7
1,1
20182017
+33%
0,3
1,0
0,40,7
0,2
2,0
+74%
2021
0,7
20202019
1,4
1.8% 2.5% 3.9% 7.3% 10.7%PHEV + BEV market share market(in % of total LV)
IN THE CASE OF SALES BELOW THESE AMBITIOUS PRODUCTION LEVELS (X5 IN 3 YEARS), OEMS WILL FIGHT HARD ON PHEV & BEV SALES TO REACH THEIR 2021 WLTP TARGETS
c.0.7 c.1.0Cumulated fleet of EV vehicles (MVeh)
c.1.8 c.3.2 c.5.2
Charging infrastructure (’000s of points)
c.100 c.100 c.145 c.260 c.420
ACTUAL IHS PRODUCTION FORECAST
’19-’21 cumulated subsidies required1:
€ 7-15 B
23Advancy Insights
Zoom on BEV, FCEV and PHEV per car segment
BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF
The fight might be particularly strong on the B & C, as customer demand focuses onthese segments
1. Focused on top models covering c.95% of European BEV Sales and 85% of PHEV sales in 2018Source: Carsalesbase, IHS, Advancy analysis
SALES OF PHEV + BEV1 | 2017-2018, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, KVEH PRODUCTION FORECAST OF PHEV + BEV | 2021 WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, KVEH
4%
25% 24%
41%45%
15%13%
11% 8%
5% 6%
4%
0,2
2017
B
E
D
2018
A
F
0,3
C
35%
21%
0%
0,1 0,3
F
Others
1%
48%
19%
24%
1%
0%
PSA
9%
VAG
4%
53%
1%
0,50%
32%
1%
FCA
38%
4%
1%
40%
17%
26%17%
0,2
34%
D
E
BMW
42%
25%
0%0,2
R-N-M
0,3
1%
16%
0%
17%
31%
1%
Daimler
54%
0%0,3
21%
23%
9%
35%
A
B
C
7%
2,0
2021
14%
A
B
D
E
C
F
20%
0%
41%
18%
PRODUCTION PLANS OF GERMAN OEMS FOCUSES HEAVILY ON HIGH MARGIN E SEGMENT, WHILE MARKET DEMAND IS FOCUSED ON B&C SEGMENTS. THEY MIGHT AGGRESSIVELY ATTACK B&C SEGMENTS TO SECURE CO2 TARGETS
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