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Balancing outcomes and making transparent trade offsDr Liz Wedderburn AgResearch & ColleaguesRural Futures conference 24th Sept 2009
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What are we attempting to balance?
Social
Cultural
Economic
Environmental
Quality of Life
SourceChoosing Regional Futures 2007
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Today’s presentation
• Describe the system properties that underpin agriculture
• Discuss the knowledge sets required to achieve co- existence of outcomes
• Outline some tensions resulting from system properties
• Give examples of balancing outcomes at farm, catchment and community level
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Coupling of Human Capability and Natural Capital is New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage
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Ecosystem processesBiogeochemical
hydrological
Resources
Economic activity
Interface of high tension
Sustainable Development from a natural capital base
Functions for human well being: food, clean air,water, waste assimilation, biodiversity, cultural Leadership
GovernanceCapacity
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Knowledge Systems required to operate from a natural capital base
• The limits of ecosystem properties and behaviour: to set targets
• Ecosystem functions: – what are they? – how do we protect them? and – how does land management impact on them?
• The value of natural capital: how do we include in assessments?
• What are the skills, capability, institutions that couple human behaviour and ecosystem behaviour?
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Tensions caused by system properties“wicked problems” • Distance in space and time:
– Impacts of decisions– Nutrient flow lag– Policy requirements; Research time lines
• Fast and slow cycles: fast societal change; slow biological response
• How can you manage what you cannot see?
• We do not have exact science knowledge
• No simple cause and effect instead we deal with dynamic coupled systems where relationships and systemic interactions defy ‘silver bullet’ solutions
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Some attempts to balance the outcomes
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Nutrient balance
Optimum soil test values
Nitrification inhibitors
Low-rate effluent irrigation
Wintering/spring pads
Herd HomesHerd HomesHerd Homes
Effluent storage
Irrigation Bunds
On Farm Technological
FixesTool Box
Source Monaghan 2005
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0
100
200
300
400
500Farm EBIT, $000
N leached, g/kg MS
GG emissions, kgCO2-eq/kg MS
Energy use, MJ/kg MS
Forage crop grazing
Feedpad
Economic and environmental performance of a feedpad and a winter cropsystem for a dairy farm
Source Monaghan et al 2005
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Animals Fert N$ GM per
ha
N leached
kg N/ha/yr
$ GM per kg N leached
Steers 0N 560 10 56
Ewes 140%
lambing0N 680 9 75
Designing farm systems to balance nutrient emissions and financial returns
Source Ledgard pers com
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System Reconfiguring, Catchment Land use
Pine on steep landStock policy change Riparian protectionFragment restorationSpaced Poplar planting
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Indicator Old System Benchmark value
New system
Soil fertility (Olsen phosphate)
17 25 23
Pasture production (t DM/ha/y)
9.5 12.1 10.0
Sediment export (t/ha/y)
2.86 0.44 0.69
Phosphorus export (kg/ha/y)
3.0 0.8 1.2
Indigenous plant diversity (# spp per plot)
20 34 28
Lambing (% weaned)
109 120 124
Cattle gross margin ($/stock unit)
46 58 82
Annual farm surplus ($/ha grazed)
181 253 285
Source Dodd et al 2007
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Informed ConsensusTransition cost too high Future institutions: Catchment CompanyRemoval of property boundaries to design an extensive whole farm system To meet community goals
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Sustainability of What, Why and for Whom ?A community conversation
Social
Cultural
Economic
Environmental
Quality of Life
SourceChoosing Regional Futures 2007
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CommunitySustainability Outcomes
Environment Economy Quality of Life Culture/Identity
Participation and Equity
Values Air Productivity Safety and security
Identity Equity
Land and soil
Prosperity Health Culture Civic participation
Water Employment Paid work Treaty of Waitangi
Landscape Infrastructure Recreation & leisure
Political/social trust
Biodiversity Tourism Knowledge and skills
Human rights
Biosecurity Socialconnections
International treaties
Kaitiakitanga/stewardship
Housing
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Outcomes Environment Economic Quality of life Politics/Culture
Stakeholders Green= Better
Red=worse Blue=does not matter
Yellow=moderate
Scientists 50 30 15 5
Dairy Industry
35 40 15 10
NGO 50 10 15 25
Urban 15 25 50 10
Evaluating impact of capping nutrient emissions
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Outcomes
• Differing perspectives exposed• Makes transparent the judgements and reasoning• Identifies where co-existence and trade offs exist• Enables collective learning• Takes a systems approach to identifying unintended
consequences• Exposes who wins, who looses, who cares• Mobilises science knowledge
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Conclusions
• Multiple simultaneous approaches are required to balance outcomes
• Collective learning and building adaptive capacity within a systems context is essential
• Leadership is necessary to have an informed conversation at local-national scale about what we want to sustain
• Science informs
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