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CountryPresentation
SASCOF927-29September2016
Myanmar
Tayba BuddhaTamangDepartmentofHydroMetServices
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OutlineofPresentation• CountryIntroduction
• WintermonsoonforBhutan
• Climatologyofwinterseason(Oct’15toFeb’16)
• CurrentPredictionSystem/Verification
• Predictionfor2016-17winterseason
• Conclusion
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CountryIntroduction
• Totalarea:38,394Sq.Km• Population:750,000• 79%ofpopulationisfarmer• Location:SouthernAsia,between
China&India• Altitude:100minthesouthto
7500mtotheNorthabovemsl• ForestCoverage:72.5%- Policyisto
ensureatleast60%foralltime• Topography:95%Mountainterrain
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MonsooninBhutan
BhutanClimaticisgenerallydominatedbymonsoonwindswithdrywinterandwetsummermonsoon
DJF MAM JJAS ON
2% 19% 73% 6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain 10 21 50 123 197 372 434 361 236 97 8 6
050
100150200250300350400450500
Rainfallinm
m
MeanMonthly RainfalloverBhutan(1996-2015)
32
370
1402
110
0
500
1000
1500
JF MAM JJAS OND
Raininm
m
BhutanSeasonalRainDistribution
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ForecastandobservationforwintermonsoonOctober2015-February2016(ONDJF)
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Concencus from Winter South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (Win SASCOF-1) OND
- First Winter SASCOF was conducted from 14-16th October at Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
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Concencus from WinSASCOF
- Normal to above normal is likely during the North East Monsoon (Oct-December) in southern parts of South Asia (Peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives)
- Above Normal is likely over the northern parts of the region
- Others areas that receive very little rainfall (Including Bhutan) during the season are likely to receive normal rainfall
- Above normal temperature is predicted over most parts of the region in Bhutan
- Prevailing strong El Nino condition in the equatorial pacific is near certain to continue in the season
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Concencus from Winter SASCOF- OND
Winter (OND) Rainfall Predicted to be normalfor Bhutan
Winter (OND) temperature Predicted to be above normal with El Nino predicted to persist
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Prediction for 2015-16 winter
- CPT forecast using SST for JAS to predict ONDJF
- Goodness index =0.47
- Predicted normal for 2015-16 Winter for Bhutan
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WinterRain
• NormalrainONDJF=142mm• JJAS(~1400mm)
• ONDrainwasbelownormal• Overalllastwintermonsoonwasbelownormal
29
-31 -31
52
-43
2912
79
5466
7 6
-5
30
-29
-55-41
-1
-69-58-80
-60-40-20020406080100
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%DeviationONDJF
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Findings
• 2015-16WinterONDJFrainfallforecastnotaccurate
• Possiblereason:Rainfallcontributionisveryminimalcomparedtoannual.Smallamount,largevariation.
DJF MAM JJAS ON
2% 19% 73% 6%
32
370
1402
110
0
500
1000
1500
JF MAM JJAS OND
Raininm
m
BhutanSeasonalRainDistribution
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CurrentPredictionSystem/Verification
• ClimatePredictabilityTools(CPT)
• SASCOF(winterandsummermonsoon)
• FODAS(trial)
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Predictionfor2016-17winterseason
• CPT• ObservedSSTAugust(1982-2016)
• GoodnessIndex=0.442• ForecastofabovenormalONDrainfall
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Predictionfor2016-17winterseason
• FODAS–ForecastsystemOnDynamicalandAnalogueSkills
• DevelopedBCC• UsesBCC_GCMandGPCP• PostProcessing
1. Systematicerrorcorrection2. Dynamic-statisticcombinedforecasting3. Averageforsystematicerrorcorrectionand
dynamicstatisticcombinedforecast
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FODASresult
Forecastofabovenormalrainfall
Forecastofnormaltoabovenormalrainfall
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Conclusion• Forecastofnormalrainfallinwinter2015,recordedbelownormalrainfallinBhutan
• Thiswinter2016-17forecastofabovenormalrainfall
CHALLENGES• Thecoeff.ofvariationforwinterprecipitationisverylarge,makingdifficulttopredict
• Challengesinpredictionduetocomplexterrainsandlocalizedclimate
• Requirementofexploringnewtoolsandmethodsofpredictingwinterclimateoutlook
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THANKYOU