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Driving Towards Sustainable Mobility
Biofuels: The Technologies, Challenges, and
Opportunities (US Experiences)
Dr. Candace WheelerGM Technical Fellow
Global Energy Systems Intelligence Center
General Motors
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Today● 820 M vehicles
● 7 B people
● 12% ownership rate
2020● >1B vehicles
● 8 B people
● 15% ownership rate
Need for Energy Diversity
and Advanced Biofuels
96% of Today’s Vehicles Are
Dependent on Petroleum
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SustainableSupply
CO2 Urbanization
The Challenge is Growing Sustainably
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GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum
Through Energy Efficiency & Diversity
Improve
Vehicle
Fuel Economy
and
Emissions
Displace
Petroleum
Energy
Diversity
Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Electric
Vehicles
Battery-ElectricVehicles (including
EREV)Hybrid-ElectricVehicles (including
Plug-in HEV)
IC Engineand Transmission
Improvements
Petroleum (Conventional and Alternative Sources)
Alternative Fuels (Ethanol, Biodiesel, CNG, LPG)
Electricity (Conv. and Alternative Sources)
Hydrogen
Time
Advanced Propulsion Technology StrategyPromote and execute a “Blended Energy Carrier Strategy” that incorporates
the use of liquid fuels, CNG, electricity, and hydrogen
Implement advanced propulsion technologies that
optimize fuel efficiency and minimize emissions
Accelerate the use of clean,
renewable, low-carbon fuels
Support the
electrification of
the vehicle
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GM’s Commitment to Biofuels
Is about offering our customers a choice and the ability to fuel their vehicles with
A low cost, renewable, sustainable, domestically produced alternatives to petroleum
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Global Demand for Oil Is Expected to Grow
30% 2010 - 2030
Population growth will continue with the most growth coming from Asia and developing countries
India and China have 38% of the world’s population but use only 2 barrels of oil per person per year
● In comparison, the US uses 15, Europe 12, and Brazil 9
● Increasing from 2 to 3 would require 10M more barrels per day
Greatest growth seen in diesel fraction – total gasoline demand will be stable
All technologies and energy sources including biofuels will be needed to meet the rising energy demand
Middle distillate demand to nearly double by 2030
Global Petroleum Product Demand
Reference: Hart Energy
Net Dependency on Imported Oil and Gas in
Selected Countries – 2010 to 2035
Reference: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
● US will see a sharp decrease in oil imports and has the potential to
become a net exporter of natural gas
● China, India, and EU will dramtically increase both oil and gas imports
(China is expected to increase oil imports 60% and double gas imports)
● Japan expected to be ~100% dependent on imported oil and gas
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US Renewable Fuels Standard is Major Biofuels Policy Driver
Bil
lio
ns
of
Ga
llo
ns
Prior RFS1
2012 and 2013
Requirements
(billions gals)
Draft Rule
2012
2013
Final Rule
2012
2013
proposed
Cellulosic
Biofuel
0.5
1.0
0.00865
0.014
Biomass-
based Diesel
1
1.0
1.0
1.28
Total
Advanced
2
2.75
2
2.75
Conventional 13.2
13.8
13.2
13.8
2007 Energy Independence and Security
Act Renewable Fuels Standard
Goal is to provide 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel in 2022
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HOW DO WE GET THERE?
A Variety of Feedstocks Are Being Used
Switchgrass
Municipal
Solid Waste
Bagasse
(Sugar Cane
Residue)
Corn
Stover
Wood
Chips
Wheat
Straw
Forest
Waste
Corn
Cobs
Poplar Trees
(Fast Growing
Woody Biomass)
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Improving technology is accelerating growth in yields
Average corn yields have increased 5-6 fold in the
U.S. since 1940
EPA has modeled 230 bushels/acre for 2022
Many predict yields over 300 bushels/acre
Corn Yields Have Grown
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Low Cost Biomass Will Be Critical to Future Energy Production Regardless of Fuel Carrier – Powertrain System
Biomass is a feedstock for chemicals, electricity, and natural gas - not just liquid fuels
It is essential to successfully grow energy crops at large scale
Biotechnology improvements and agronomics are both key to improving yields
BIOMASS
Thermo-chemical
LIQUID FUELS
Bio-chemical
NATURAL GAS
Anaerobic
Digestion
ELECTRICITY
Co-fired or
Thermo-chemical
FINE CHEMICALS
Bio-chemical
• Switchgrass
• High-Biomass Sorghum
• Miscanthus
• Energycane
• Short-RotationWoody Crops
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Challenge: How Do You Put Low Cost
Biomass in Your Car?
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Bio
fuels
And we have only just begun …
Corn (Starches)
Sugarcane
Oil seeds
1st Generation
Current Tech2nd Gen
1 - 5 Years*
3rd Gen
3 - 7 Years*
4th Gen
5-10 Years*
“Gen 1.5”
0 - 3 Years*
Cassava
Sweet Sorghum Energy Cane
Waste
Grasses, Wood
Algae
Microbes convert CO2 directly to fuel
Jatropha
Green Gasoline
Renewable Diesel
Sunlight and
CO2
Cellulosic Bioethanol
Algae
Synthetic Biorefinery
Gasification
Direct Synthesis?
Cassava
Corn
Biofuels Technology Roadmap
*First commercial-scale plants
Technology maturity expected 2020-2030 for 2nd–4th Gen respectively
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Biofuel Study: What Fuels, What Cost, When
DistributionConversionStorage and TransportFeedstock
Project takes a complete value-chain approach to future large-scale
biofuels
Types of questions addressed:What fuels do we expect to see coming on-line – when, where, and at what volumes?
What are the technologies involved and examples of the leading companies?
Are these fuels cost competitive with petroleum fuels and what would make this happen?
What are the costs today and projected costs for 1st and nth plants?
What are the advantages and challenges associated with each fuel type?
What are the impacts on infrastructure?
What does this mean for GM’s energy diversification strategy, and current portfolio plan?
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Current View on Bio-fuels: The Good News Biofuels are “real” and will continue to grow
● Multiple drivers – energy security, national security, balance of trade, increasing oil demand, jobs, carbon and GHG reduction
● Biofuels can be produced sustainably and cost competitively with crude oil at $70-$90/barrel
Sufficient feedstock exists or can be developed to sustainably supply a significant portion of our liquid fuel needs
Future biofuels will look very different from what they do now
● Involve multiple fuel types and pathways to make those fuels (no boutique fuels)
● Fuels will differ by feedstock and by region (domestically and internationally)
Many technologies starting from starches and sugars until cellulosic sugars are available – low cost sugars are the holy grail
● Cellulose feedstocks add complexity and risk
● More emphasis on drop-ins (pyrolysis oil, algal crude, other hydrocarbons)
● All technologies will be needed to meet rising global energy demand
A host of new innovative technologies are under development at the lab-bench scale (solar fuels, electrofuels, etc.)
Ethanol will continue to be the predominate alternative transportation fuel in the coming 10 years
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Current View of Biofuels: Uncertainties
Initial focus has shifted to higher value bio-chemicals for cosmetic, nutraceutical and pharmaceutical applications – fuels not first commercialization effort
Logistics is a weak link in the chain (includes pretreatment)
The time to large-volume, commercial scale has been delayed, but we see promising movement in that direction
● Many at demo scale with some building 1st commercial plant
● Investment funding biggest hurdle
● Using IPOs to raise money for initial plants
● Infrastructure development is critical and infrastructure compatible fuels have a competitive advantage
Policy is a key driver but remains uncertain● RFS2 mandates adjusted annually and under review
● Cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel subsidies extended through 2013
● Biofuels will continue on a growth path, but slow growth in advanced biofuels are
causing some countries to adjust requirements
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Greatest Challenges/Issues over the Last Year Impact of US Drought
● The total US corn crop was reduced ~13% from 2011
● The ethanol industry responded by reducing production and exports
● EPA A denied a request to wave the RFS2 citing flexibility in meeting RFS
requirements
Blend Wall Reached with E10● Ethanol will continue to be the predominant alternative transportation fuel for
next 10 years
● Requirement to blend 13.8 B gallons exceeds 10% of total gasoline demand
requires more use of E85 or mid-level blends, etc.
Abundance of Natural Gas● Growing volumes of natural gas and low prices could impact the transportation
sector for both light duty and heavy duty vehicles
Policy Uncertainty● Will the recent extensions of the biodiesel and cellulosic biofuel credits be
renewed past 2013?
● What are the likely RFS2 required volumes beyond 2013?
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The next 2-3 years will prove critical for advanced biofuels as pilot/demo plants become operational and first commercial plants are constructed
It is likely that we will see multiple fuels (and the pathways to make those fuels) emerge over the next several years - both ethanol and renewable hydrocarbons
The only practical means of achieving the 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target is through a very efficient vehicle coupled with a low carbon fuel
Summary
GM believes biofuels, including ethanol, are the most significant
near-term solution to reducing petroleum usage and greenhouse
gas emissions
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Gas-Friendly to Gas-Free
Thank You for Your Attention
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Back-up
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2012 Global Corn Crop Was Down 2.8% from
2011 but Still the Second Largest in History
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Corn Yields are Increasing Globally as
Technology Advances
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Food Inflation Is Expected to Remain Close to
Historical Averages in 2012 and 2013
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INEOS Bio
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Kior
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Mascoma
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GH
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Tank-to-Wheels
Well-to-Tank
Well-To-Wheels
Well to Wheels GHG Vary Widely among
Energy Resource and Propulsion Pathways