Download - Boston vs. Montreal Prediction
Montreal vs. Boston
Season Series
Montreal went 4-2-0 in the regular season
while Boston lost once in OT and therefore
have a 2-3-1 record. It is important to note 3
of Montreal’s 4 wins occurred before
January 8th
, and since that time Montreal is
1-2-0 lighting the lamp 10 times, but
allowing 16 goals
Offence
Boston 2.98 GPG – 5th
in the league
Montreal 2.60 GPG – 22nd
in the league
Neither team has a game-breaker who can
be counted on to score in the dying seconds
of the game. No, these two teams rely on a
deep line-up where the offence can come
from a variety of sources. Boston’s top
scorer, Milan Lucic had only 30 goals and
62 points, tied with David Krejci.
Montreal’s top offensive threats were Tomas
Plecanec who potted 22 goals while
contributing 57 points on the campaign, and
captain Brian Gionta who scored 29.
While these two look to have similar
offensive abilities, the reason why Boston
was far better in the regular season, was
based on the fact that 10 Bruins recorded
over 40 points compared to only 5 for the
Canadiens. Boston’s team runs far deeper
than Montreal’s, and their scorers were
much more consistent.
Taking a closer look at Boston we can see
they have a far more balanced team with
many weapons at their disposal. Although
guys like Horton, Bergeron and rookie Brad
Marchand won’t will any awards; all three
of them work hard and scored from 21 to 26
goals. Still looking down their roster guys
like Recchi, Chara, Ryder, Kaberle and
newcomer Rich Peverley all scored over 40
points and can be counted on over the
stretch.
While Montreal can boast similar top-end
talent in Gionta, Plekanec and Cammalleri,
it also should be known Cammalleri failed
to score even 20 goals, in fact he scored only
6 less all season than he had in last year’s
playoffs. Also both Gionta and Cammalleri
have gone on horrendous scoring droughts,
including an 11 game drought by
Cammalleri around New Years, and
Gionta’s 8 game drought that ended on the
second last game of the season. Also factor
in that Montreal does not have any depth to
speak of and although Kostistyn and Gomez
may ignite in the playoffs, this is unlikely.
No one else on their roster other than maybe
blueliner James Wisniewski, who had a
career year with 10 goals and 51 points, can
be counted to score with any regularity, so
goals may be hard to come by.
Verdict-Boston, the stats speak for
themselves, and if not I have over 400 words
to clarify.
Defence
Boston 2.30 GAG – 2nd
in the league
Montreal 2.50 GAG – 8th
in the league
Here my job becomes trickier. By defence,
I’m not talking about Thomas vs. Price, that
comes next. What I am talking about is the
defence corps, that helps insulate the
aforementioned goalies.
Both teams were quite good defensively,
largely due to their stellar goalies, but
Thomas’s record setting .938 SV% could
not have been possible without help.
Looking at the Beantown boys, we’ve got
some “big” names (excuse the terrible pun).
Zdeno Chara is one of the league’s best, and
in 2009 he was given the Lidstrom... I mean
Norris trophy for being the best. But Chara
and his league leading +33 are not alone;
Dennis Seidenberg was 8th
in blocked shots
with 174, and Adam McQuaid’s + 30 wasn’t
too shabby. Throw in guys like Tomas
Kaberle, Jonny Boychuk, and Andrew
Ferrance, and you’ve got a fine looking D-
core.
So can the Canadiens match up with the big
bad Bruins? Well maybe. Veteran Roman
Hamrlik recorded 192 blocks, good enough
for 3rd
in the league. Hal Gill wasn’t too far
behind with 151 stingers. The only
difference was the Gill was a -9, the second
worst amongst Montreal’s defensemen.
Wisniewski, although a potent powerplay
quarterback was seemingly team worst -14
on the season, looking like a statistical
liability, a weak point. Actually though since
joined the Habs, Wisniewski has been a +4,
so if anything he’s been all that more
valuable, a strong point per se. Looking for a
true possible liability one must look no
further than the enigmatic PK Subban. The
young blueliner gave away the puck 56
times, good enough for 2nd
worst on the
team, which didn’t help his 4th
worst -8.
However maybe I am being too critical. I
mean the Habs, did finish in 8th
defensively,
and they allowed the 17th
least shot against
per game, which looks great to Boston’s 2nd
most. Although looking at the +/- for
Boston’s defensemen one could say that
obviously are the better defensive team, but
be aware Boston scored 31 more goals, and
only gave up 17 less. The fact Boston scored
more, would inflate each players +/-, giving
it virtually no meaning when comparing
teams.
Verdict- Montreal
Maybe it’s because of Martin but Montreal
made it much easier on its goaltender to stop
the puck. They blocked the 3rd
most shots;
688 of them compared to 524 for the Bruins,
the 8th
least. Do the Habs have issues on the
back-end, of course, and could someone else
say Boston is better, yes they could, but
defence is a unit effort, and Montreal’s unit
is better than Boston’s. They have a rugged
defence core, that let Carey Price look like
the next Halak.
Goaltending
Thomas
57 GP, 35-11-9, 2.00 GAA, .938 SV% 9 SO
Price
72 GP 38-28-6, 2.35 GAA, .923 SV% 8 SO
I’m not going to beat around the bush here.
Thomas had one of the best seasons for a
goalie of all time. His team gave up the 2nd
most shots, and Thomas faced 32.2 shots per
60 minutes of action. In spite of that, he
recorded 9 SO, gave up a measly 2 goals a
game, and stopped nearly 94% of all shots
faced. He also won 35 games playing in
only 57, a great win percentage, and Boston
could only seem to win with him, in net in
spite of stellar play from back-up Tuuka
Rask.
Now, Price did have a career year. Led the
NHL in wins, played in a team record 72
games, his goals against and save percentage
are great and he faced 30.2 shots per games,
which is less than Thomas, but not an easy
night. Still there is no comparison.
Thomas will win the Vezina hands down,
and Price won’t. But why talk only about
this year, let’s bring up the past.
Yes did you know Price hasn’t won a
playoff game since 2008? He’s had 10 tries,
but he’s gone 0-8 with a hefty 4.11 GAA
and an atrocious .870 SV%. In fact the last
game he won was game one of a Eastern
semi finals against Philly, a series in which
he surrendered plenty weak goals.
Compare that to Thomas, who did not play
last year. Thomas has only won one playoff
round, but has played well in his career.
Thomas in 18 games is 10-8 in the post
season with a 2.16 GAA a .926 SV% and 1
SO. Price on the other hand in 19 games
Price is 5-11 with a 3.17 GAA and an .894
SV% but he does have 2 SO, so he has that
over Thomas.
The point is, if you want a debate for this
season, there is none. You want to debate
playoff success, well good luck. There is no
contest here that Thomas, and even if he
falters then Tuuka Rask, can offer better
goaltending in the playoffs than Carey Price.
Verdict – Boston
Final Words
This series should not be a nail-biter, but it
will be fun to watch nonetheless. Montreal,
already has a hard time scoring, so putting
them against Thomas and the Bruins will not
help their cause. Boston should dominate the
diminutive Canadiens with their intimidating
physical play, and then power home some
goals. The Habs will be lucky the crack the
thick armour of Tim Thomas, who has a
pretty good core to back him up. This
shouldn’t be a high scoring series, although
we saw an 8-6 games earlier this year, and a
7-0 rout in the last meeting between these
two clubs. Still the playoffs are more
structured, and Boston should easily be able
to limit the Habs offence
Prediction Bruins in 5