Transcript
Page 1: Boutique Asset Manager Selection in Emerging and Frontier Markets

LMG Emerge Presentation

The GLOCAL ConceptSelection of Boutique Asset Managers in EM

and FM Countries

September 22, 2013Erik L. van Dijk

Principal

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AbstractLMG’s GLOCAL Concept is an innovative in/outsourcing system based

on our belief that local asset managers are best equipped to add value bottom-up, with LMG coordinating the activities of these

managers top-down

Top-down: Our tailor-made GTAA advisory system is one of the most extensive of its kind. It is based on a 10-year collaboration with Nobel Prize Laureate dr Markowitz (see also FAJ March/April 2003).

Clients have included pension plans and other large institutional investors. Advisory Assets under Management over the period 2005-2012 have been in excess of € 35 billion

Bottom-up: Best-of-Breed Manager Selection system in close collaboration with Camradata (UK) and eVestment Alliance (USA)

Strong backbone partners have already embraced the concept: Banque Privee/Edmond de Rothschild (Developed Markets);

Emirates NBD (Emerging Markets/Islamic Finance); Invest AD (Frontier Markets)

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Abstract (2)

Result:

LMG Emerge Implemented ConsultancyExtra layer for "Alpha Generation"

Focus on “Best-of-Breed’’ Manager Selection

Improved "Risk Control“

Independent Solutions

Strong Partner for Local Specialists

Challenging the dominant position of the giant ‘Usual Suspects’

Transparent Process

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Abstract (3)

But:A lot of the specialists are not completely there yet!!Small, focused teams with less resources

What about back-office?

What about knowledge of the international financial markets?

Willingness to cooperate is there, but how?

If you want them to do what they are good at: ensure that other parts of the investment process are taken care of

It is hard to ‘convince’ when unfair odds are against you, so help and train those managers

Beware: we are NOT implying here that locals are in all circumstances financially less strong. Local market leaders can be financial power houses in their home market, but relatively unknown internationally

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Presentation Outline

1. LMG Emerge1. Who We Are2. What We Believe In

2. Structed Asset Allocation as Condition Sine Qua Non

3. LMG Emerge’s Glocal Concept;1. The Process2. The Strategy / Our Luxembourg Fund Structure

4. Overview – (Boutique) Manager Selection in EM/FM

5. LMG in Emerging and Frontier Markets1. General2. MENA/Africa3. Russia/Central Asia4. India5. Other Regions

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1. LMG Emerge Who we are

LMG Emerge

Specialist institutional investment consultant in the Continental European Market; currently staff of 6 ; additional ‘human resources’ via backbone partnerships

‘Backbone partners’: Emirates NBD (General Concept, MENA & Islamic Finance and GLOCAL EM); Invest AD (GLOCAL FM; Africa); Banque Privee / Edmond de Rothschild (Developed Markets); Camradata & eVestment Alliance (database partners)

Asset Allocation approach incorporates more than 75 countries• Innovative joint work with Nobel Prize Laureate dr Markowitz (FAJ Mar-Apr 2003), chosen by

dr Markowitz and a group of fellow Nobel Laureates as one of his best articles • Monte Carlo simulations by Prof M Kritzman (MIT) confirm added-value of the underlying

heuristic

Advisory Assets under Management have amounted to more than Euro 35 billion over the period 2005-current

Luxembourg-domiciled SIF-Sicav implemented consultancy-based Fund range established Q1 2013: i) Equities; ii) Fixed Income; iii) Opportunity; and iv) Islamic Finance (forthcoming)

LMG Glocal is our specialized distribution affiliate and LMG Capital our newly established private equity/investment banking affiliate specializing in EM/FM.

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We believe that:

• Real diversification is the most effective method to control portfolio volatility

• Asset allocation is responsible for the majority of investment portfolio returns and risk

• Real asset classes provide investors a risk premium vs. inflation and cash over time

• Markets are not efficient, and Emerging Markets are often very inefficient

• Emerging markets will be the growth engine of the global economy for next 50 years

• Local players will play a growing role in Emerging Markets asset management

1. LMG EmergeWhat we believe in

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2. Asset Allocation

Gary Brinson et al.:

"The bulk of investment success or failure can be explained by asset allocation decisions"

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2. Asset Allocation (2)

Current practice:

• Asset Allocation– Asset-Liability Management (ALM Study)– Strategic Allocation (SAA)– Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA)

But…..– Contrary to ALM and SAA;– Tactical Asset Allocation often ad-hoc and unstructured

And:

Over-focus on Bottom-up Manager Selection vis-à-vis Top-down Asset Allocation

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2. Asset Allocation (3)

? ? ?

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

Current Practice

Alpha At Risk Risk Control Gap

Better structure for increasedrisk-adjusted returns:

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

StructuredGTAA

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Structured Investment Process 1

? ? ?

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

Current Practice

Alpha At Risk Risk Control Gap

Better structure for increasedrisk-adjusted returns:

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

StructuredGTAA

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3. LMG Emerge’s Glocal Concept

Optimal structure for higherand TAILOR-MADE

risk-adjusted returns:

Client-specific risk profiles&

Other constraints

LMG Emerge GTAA

Link to LMG Emerge Manager Selection

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

StructuredGTAA

Space for innovative boutiques and GLOCAL managers

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Structured Investment Process 2

Optimal structure for higherand TAILOR-MADE

risk-adjusted returns:

Client-specific risk profiles&

Other constraints

LMG Emerge GTAA

Link to LMG Emerge Manager Selection

ALM/SAA

EquitiesBonds Other

StructuredGTAA

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3. LMG Emerge’s Glocal Concept

Harry M. Markowitz & Erik L. van DijkFinancial Analysts Journal, March-April 2003

"Optimal Portfolio Construction is not the same as Textbook Mean-Variance Optimization"

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3.1 ProcessLMG Emerge’s Glocal Concept

LMG Emerge’s Glocal Concept is the result of more than 20 years of research

Essential underlying principles of the process are:

“Man-Machine”

“Near Optimization” and State-of-the-art GTAA

“Be active when you can, but passive when you have to”

‘’Best-of-Breed’’ Manager Selection

Local Presence Adds Value

Hardly any global asset manager outperforms in more than ‘just’ 30 percent of its products and this is especially for the large, global fund houses

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LMG Glocal Trust Fund; building blocks:

• Multi-manager SIF-Sicav structure, consisting of 4 sub-funds (launched Mar/Apr 2013)

• Equities Sub-Fund

Listed equities; Developed, EM and FM Markets; balanced approach

• Fixed Income Sub-Fund

Fixed Income, Developed, EM and FM Markets; sovereigns and corporates; balanced approach

• Opportunity Sub-Fund

Other asset classes; Developed, EM and FM Markets and Opportunistic Equity

• Islamic Finance Sub-Fund (forthcoming)

3.2 The Strategy -Our Luxembourg Fund Structure

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LMG Glocal Trust Fund; for our clients:

• Tailor-made, customized approach using all 4 sub-funds as components:

• ‘Defensive’ Profile

Strategic Tilt toward Fixed Income Sub-Fund and – if allowed and relevant – Islamic Finance Sub-Fund

• ‘Balanced’ Profile

No clear tilts over the full business cycle; profile tilt can switch between defensive and dynamic

• ‘Dynamic’ Profile

Strategic Tilt toward Equities and Opportunities Sub-Fund

But Boutique EM/FM specialists included in all strategies and for all clients!

3.2 The Strategy (2) -Our Luxembourg Fund Structure

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4 Overview – Man Selection in EM and FM

Factor/Region MENA AFRICA EX SA SOUTH AFRICA RUSSIA EM EUROPE TURKEY CENTRAL ASIA INDIA CHINA OTHER FAR EAST BRAZIL OTHER LATAM GLOBAL DEVEDUCATIONSKILL SET

REGULATORY INFRASTRUCTURECORP GOVERNANCE

ASSET MGT PROFESSIONALISMASSET MGT BREADTH

MARKET SIZEALPHA POTENTIAL/INEFFICIENCY

CULTURAL DIFFERENCES

GOODAVERAGE

POOR/QUESTIONABLE

LMG: Mena, India and Brazil definitely the three regions where all-of-us should consider to look at local specialists;

Africa, Russia, Central Asia and – still – China if you have the guts (or adviser!)

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Glocal Concept assigns core role to EM and FM

• Market Inefficiencies

The more inefficient a market, the bigger the likelihood that local presence will add value

• Market Trends / Developments

Relative weight of EM and FM (as part of global GDP) grows; and so does LMG’s involvement with these

markets (since 2005)

• Ideal Partner for Globalizing EM/FM Partners and Investors

Selected EM and FM Partners and Investors are ready ‘to go abroad’; LMG is their ideal, trusted partner

5.1 LMG and Emerging Markets -General

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LMG Emerge: Key Emerging Region #1

• LMG partners with regional giants

Emirates NBD (Dubai) and Invest AD (Abu Dhabi) as strong backbone partners

• Islamic Finance is booming

LMG involved with and acknowledged as specialist in Islamic Finance; first official meeting with Grand

Imam already back in 2000; definitely an area where one needs the local partners!

• Core region due to Energy and Financial Wealth

Oil and Gas Wealth; region is home to some of the most wealthy countries in the world (KSA, UAE, QAT

etc)

5.2 LMG and Emerging Markets -MENA/Africa

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LMG Emerge: Key Region #2

• LMG Network

Traditionally strong network through our cooperation with TLCS and our own former ties to FIDE (World

Chess Federation; with strong ties to the Kremlin)

• Changes in ‘Foreign Bias’

Traditionally least-favored region by Western investors; but foreign bias to change in a changing world in

which EM and FM gain in importance (= opportunities for specialists like LMG)

• High growth region characterized by (natural) resource abundance

Commodity-rich region (Energy, Mining and Precious Metals, Selected Agricultural Commodities); Growing

interest in top-quality Diversified Financial Services; High level of technical education

5.3 LMG and Emerging Markets -Russia/Central Asia

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LMG Emerge: Key Region #3

• LMG Network

Together with our new backbone partner: an Indian multi-family office that started our LMG Capital joint

venture together with us

• Changes in ‘Foreign Bias’

Traditionally less favored by Western investors than China; but mild foreign bias to change in a changing

world in which EM and FM gain in importance (= opportunities for specialists like LMG)

• High growth region characterized by human resource abundance

Enormous educational and entrepreneurial tradition; now often explored in a combined fashion (IT, health

care, pharma etc); Pool of interesting asset managers grows, but still way too small

5.4 LMG and Emerging Markets -India

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LMG Emerge: Other regions

• Far East and Latin America

More or less embraced already by the international community; partly due to more robust legal and

financial infrastructures as far as asset management etc is concerned, but also due to psychology!

• Opposite ‘Foreign Bias’ ?

Is the Foreign Bias in these regions smaller because of valid arguments or is it correlated with the Foreign

Bias in the other 3 markets? (“I don’t like the other, so I do like you’’)

• Growth regions but already ‘discovered’

These markets have been developed and we are now at a point where foreign investors have to be careful.

Also as far as asset manager selection is concerned!

5.5 LMG and Emerging Markets -Other Regions


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