![Page 1: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Calibrating a Region-wide
Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association of Governments
TRB Innovations in
Travel Modeling 2014
Baltimore , MD
Daniel Morgan ([email protected])
David Gerstle ([email protected])
Caliper Corporation
![Page 2: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Purpose
• Add analysis of operations and traffic simulation modeling to
the services MAG offers to its member agencies
• Build a model to complement MAG’s regional travel demand
model that:
• Has the operational sensitivity to capture effects of signal
operations, ITS projects
• Is able to capture the mobility benefits of major projects whose
impacts will be felt throughout Central Phoenix
• Accurately portrays the traffic impacts of transit improvements,
namely on high-capacity transit corridors
• Provides a calibrated base model from which smaller, more
focused studies can be derived
![Page 3: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Approach
• Study Design Stage
• Solicit stakeholder input/support
• Plan model framework, design parameters, and geographic scope
• Model Data Preparation
• Assemble traffic count and signal timing data
• Develop simulation model network
• Framework Development and Testing
• Test, calibrate, and validate the model
• Training
![Page 4: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Approach
• Study Design Stage
• Solicit stakeholder input/support
• Plan model framework, design parameters, and geographic scope
• Model Data Preparation
• Assemble traffic count and signal timing data
• Develop simulation model network
• Framework Development and Testing
• Test, calibrate, and validate the model
• Training
![Page 5: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Design
• A model congruous with the regional travel demand model
• Objective: To achieve a degree of integration with the regional travel demand model such that they can share key model data seamlessly
• Solution: A simulation model in TransModeler capable of reading all file formats and data structures of the regional model in TransCAD and sharing a common zonal system (and, hence, ready exchange of origin-destination matrices)
• A multi-resolution traffic simulation model
• Objective: A simulation model with an appropriate balance of high-fidelity treatment of traffic flow phenomena and practical computational performance
• Solution: A microsimulation model enabling selective application of lower-resolution (e.g., meso) and multi-resolution (e.g., hybrid micro-meso) models
![Page 6: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Development
1. Preparation of highly
detailed lane-level
geography/geometry
2. Import of centroids
and connectors from
regional model
3. Auto-adjustment of
TAZ connectivity
4. Manual addition of
centroids along study
area boundary
![Page 7: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Development: Geography/Geometry
![Page 8: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Development: Centroids/Connectors
![Page 9: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Development: Centroids/Connectors
![Page 10: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Calibration
1: Produce Initial Estimate
of O-D Traffic Demand
from Regional Travel
Demand Model
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
1
![Page 11: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Calibration
2: Simulation-based
Dynamic Traffic
Assignment to Equilibrate
Route Choices
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
2
![Page 12: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Calibration
3: Compare 15-min.
Simulated Volumes with
15-min. Segment and
Turning Counts
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
3
![Page 13: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Calibration
4: Simulation-based
Dynamic O-D Estimation
to Improve Match with
Counts
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
4
![Page 14: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Calibration
Iterate Steps 2-4: Repeat DTA
to “recalibrate” route choice
to the changes in demand
resultant from the ODME
step
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
4
2
3
![Page 15: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Validation: 15-minute INRIX Speeds
Visual comparison model
speeds with INRIX speeds to
ensure start, severity, duration
of bottlenecks
Targeted adjustment of trip
table to improve match with
bottlenecks while maintaining
goodness-of-fit with counts
![Page 16: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Calibration
ODME (Step 4) later
extended to incorporate
observed speeds
simultaneously with counts
Travel Model
Subarea
Analysis
Seed
Matrix
Traffic
Counts
Simulation-
based DTA
Travel
Times &
Delays
Simulation-
based ODME
Good
Fit? Finished
Simulated
Traffic
Volumes
No Yes
4 15-min.
INRIX
Speeds
![Page 17: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Visual Audit
Do route choices comport with expectations, local knowledge?
![Page 18: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Visual Audit
Do route choices comport with expectations, local knowledge?
Query paths traversing critical link, turning
movement, or arbitrary link sequence
Query used paths by
origin and destination
![Page 19: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Goodness of Fit: RMSE
How well does the model match observed data?
AM Peak
0600-0659 0700-0759 0800-0859 0600-0859
Collector (N=62) 93.44% 73.86% 77.52% 76.75%
Arterial (N=1,162) 52.31% 40.18% 39.39% 39.36%
Ramp (N=49) 48.81% 45.98% 45.56% 45.07%
Freeway/Expressway
(N=220) 14.06% 14.28% 14.45% 12.85%
All (N=1,493) 33.03% 29.37% 29.17% 27.70%
PM Peak
1500-1559 1600-1659 1700-1759 1500-1759
Collector (N=62) 64.79% 62.78% 70.12% 62.76%
Arterial (N=1,162) 43.44% 33.25% 37.98% 35.51%
Ramp (N=49) 41.21% 41.03% 42.48% 38.73%
Freeway/Expressway
(N=220) 14.52% 15.03% 15.89% 13.70%
All (N=1,493) 30.73% 27.06% 29.80% 26.86%
![Page 20: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Goodness of Fit: AM Scatter Plots
How well does the model match AM counts?
y = 0.9115x - 54.279R² = 0.9475
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ulat
ed C
ount
s
Field Observed Counts
y = 0.9302x - 45.489R² = 0.9375
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ula
ted
Co
un
ts
Field Observed Counts
y = 0.9254x - 36.982R² = 0.9419
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ula
ted
Co
un
ts
Field Observed Counts
![Page 21: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
y = 0.9383x - 221.49R² = 0.9511
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ula
ted
Co
un
ts
Field Observed Counts
Goodness of Fit: PM Scatter Plots
How well does the model match PM counts?
y = 0.924x - 46.772R² = 0.939
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ula
ted
Co
un
ts
Field Observed Counts
y = 0.9175x - 73.142R² = 0.9249
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Sim
ula
ted
Co
un
ts
Field Observed Counts
![Page 22: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Goodness of Fit: Spatial Pattern of Fit
What is the spatial distribution of the percent errors?
AM PM
![Page 23: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Validation: Bottleneck Matching
How well
does the
model
reflect
critical
bottlenecks
in the study
area?
![Page 24: Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Modelonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2014/ITM/Presentations/... · Calibrating a Region-wide Microsimulation Model: Maricopa Association](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022030417/5aa311e97f8b9a1f6d8e12cb/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Applications
• US-60/Grand Avenue COMPASS Study
• Old Town Peoria Traffic Study
• Various analyses of traffic interchange
redesigns and other roadway
improvements