Download - Car ownership
![Page 1: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Car ownership
![Page 2: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why?
• Market research: if you are a vehicle manufacturer• Public policy: how much infrastructure, transport
planning, land use planning, obvious essential input to travel demand models, equity, sustainability
• Planning on a very high level (national, and regional level), but also in detailed planning (block level)
![Page 3: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Two different approaches
• Time series analysis (either very aggregate, or segmented population)
+ low data requirements- limited scope
• Disaggretage models of household behaviour+ can be applied for many different
research questions- high data requirements
![Page 4: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Car ownership versus GDP per capita26 countries 1960-1992
Dargay and Gately (1999)
![Page 5: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Cars and economic growth in Sweden – over time
![Page 8: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Plot!
Let’s try a quadratic model….
![Page 9: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Easily modelled:
![Page 10: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Next, maybe price on gasoline is important?
![Page 11: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Improve the model
![Page 12: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Another improvement
• A separate model for segments of the population, in particular cohorts
![Page 13: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Factors relevant for car ownership?
![Page 14: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Gompertz model(Dargay and Gately, 2001)
Cars per capita
![Page 16: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Example
![Page 17: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Projections…
![Page 18: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Let us pause
• What are the assumptions behind these projections?
![Page 19: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Let us pause
What about attitudinal change?What about technological change?- Alternative fuel types- Self-driving cars….- Cars as public transportation
![Page 20: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Cars as public transportation?
Electronical couplingV2V, V2I, I2VFleet management, systems optimum within
reach
Land use: suppose that cars can be parked anywhere
What happens with land use?
![Page 21: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Take-aways car ownership
For which policy questions do we need to forecast car ownership? Explain.
Time series modelling on aggregate dataWhich variables have the highest explanatory
power? (what explains car ownership?)What assumptions are being made for forecasting?Compare aggregate time series models with
disaggragate model of household behavior
![Page 22: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Departure time choice and travel time uncertainty
(11.5)
![Page 23: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Travel is derived demand
… so is also departure time choice
Two different views (depending on context)• Preferred departure time or• Preferred arrival time (PAT)
![Page 24: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Simple Scheduling Model
• Schedule Delay Early (SDE)• Schedule Delay Late (SDL)
Slope 0.60
Slope 2.5
0.5
LateEarly
![Page 25: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Travel time uncertainty
![Page 26: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Value of travel timeTravel time is a numberWe may value different aspects, such asWaiting timeIn-vehicle travel time
But these are numbers, finite dimensionalAt the most, a vectorIt is ”easy” to communicate, ”the value of 1 minute shorter travel time is 5 SEK”.
![Page 27: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Value of travel time reliability
What is the value of this?
Standard deviation
Variance
What about skewness?
![Page 28: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Simple Scheduling Model
• Important for travel time uncertainty
Slope 0.60
Slope 2.5
0.5
LateEarly
![Page 29: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Value of travel time reliability and scheduling
It has been shown that the value of travel time reliability can be captured by standard deviation or variance, in the case of different scheduling models
Empirical evidence suggests that there are more than scheduling: penalty for being late per se, and the tail of the distribution matters
![Page 30: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Bottleneck (11.5.3)
origin destination
![Page 31: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Bottleneck
t
![Page 32: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Exercise
In the urban road network during morning peak hour, is the congestion due to
A. Volume-delay relationships (remember assignment)
orB. Bottleneck?
C. Or is this a trick question?
![Page 33: Car ownership](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081422/568160aa550346895dcfcc45/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Take-aways departure time and scheduling
Explain a simple scheduling modelRelation to departure time choice… and valuation of travel time uncertainty
Explain the simple bottleneck model and it relevance to urban congestion