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Upsurge in demand makes barley and malt barley procurement a volatile play
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Table of Contents
01Executive Summary
• Summary of Key Highlights in the Report
02Market Analysis
• Types of Barley• Global Market Outlook– Current Market Size – Demand–Supply Trends and Forecast– Key End-use Industries– Trade Dynamics
03Regional Market Analysis
• Regional Market Outlook (Europe, Russia, Canada, Ukraine)– Current Market Size – Demand–Supply Trends and Forecast– Key End-use Industries– Trade Dynamics– Cost Analysis
• Porter’s Five Forces Analysis • Malt Industry Analysis
04Supplier Analysis
• Key Global and Regional Suppliers• Key Supplier’s Capability Analysis– Capacity– Product Portfolio
• Geographical Footprint• Supplier Market Share - Global• Supplier Profiling of the Top Five
Global Suppliers
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Preview
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Executive Summary - Barley
Sources: UN Comtrade, USDA, Beroe Analysis
KEY CONSUMINGCOUNTRIESEU (37%)Russia (10%)Saudi Arabia (7%)China (6%)
KEY IMPORTINGCOUNTRIESSaudi Arabia (35%)China (28%)US (16%)Mexico (15%)
KEY PRODUCINGCOUNTRIESEU (42%)Russia (20%)North America (9%)
KEY EXPORTINGCOUNTRIESEU (28%)Australia (22%)Russia (17%)Ukraine (16%)
EU Feed Vs. Malt Split•Feed Barley – 43%•Malting Barley – 57%Russia Feed Vs. Malt Split•Feed Barley – 86%•Malting Barley – 14%
Surplus Barley Stocks (2016/17 vs. past 5 years average)
Global – 14.7% Europe – 6% Russia – 33.2% Canada – 51.6% Ukraine – 36%
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Executive Summary - Malt
Sources: UN Comtrade, USDA, Beroe Analysis
Top Malt Suppliers and Capacities• Soufflet Group – 2,148,000 MT• Malteurop Groupe – 2,138,000 MT• Cargill Malt – 2,126,000 MT• GrainCorp Malt – 1,333,000 MT• Boortmalt Gr. Axereal – 1,093,000 MT
Regional Malting Capacity Split•EU – 45% •Asia – 28%•North America – 12%•South America– 8%•Russia – 8%
EMERGING SUPPLY COUNTRIES (2012 vs. 2015 Export Shares)Turkey – 26% Increase Australia – 13% Increase
Barley Weather Impact (2016/2017)• EU – Unfavorable (wet) • Russia – Favorable • Canada – Favorable
GLOBAL SUPPLY (2016/2017145 MMT GLOBAL CONSUMPTION (2016/2017)120 MMT GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS(2016/2017): 25 MMT
PRICES IN KEY REGIONS and OUTLOOK for 2016/2017 EU: 136.7 $/MT, 22% Russia: 136.4 $/MT, 12.7% Ukraine: 161.6 $/MT, 32%
ENGAGEMENT MODELS• Contract Length: 2.5–3 years• Benchmark Prices: CBOT and
Wheat MATIF Euronext
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Executive Summary - Barley
01Canada (2014/2015 vs. 2016/2017)
02Europe (2015/2016 vs. 2016/2017)
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KeyTakeaway
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03Russia (2015/2016 vs. 2016/2017)
Production – (-5.1%) Consumption – 1.1% Price – (-12.7%)
03Production – 17.6% Consumption – 1.8% Price – 1%
Production – 0.74% Consumption – 2.9% Price – (22%)
• Global supply of barley has been rising at a CAGR of 3.05 percent over a period of four years. The key factors driving the growth include demand for feed barley from Middle Eastern countries and global demand for malt barley to be used in brewing industries
• Production is expected to witness minimum growth in the upcoming years due to the increase in consumption of soy and corn in feed and bio-fuel industries
Sources: UN Comtrade, USDA, Beroe Analysis
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Executive Summary - Malt
01North America
04 South America
0102
03Russia
Capacity – 1.2 MMTNo. of Plants – 12Top Players – MalteuropRussky Solod Gr.Cargill Malt
03Capacity – 1.9 MMT No. of Plants – 13Top Players – MalteuropeGrainCorp MaltRahr Malting
Capacity – 1.3 MMT No. of Plants – 7Top Players – Cargill MaltMaltexcoAgromalte Agraria
• Global supply of malt is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7 percent over the next three years. This is linked to the rising beer production globally that is expected to cross two million hectolitres in 2016, which is a 11.7 percent increase from 2010
• Major producers of malting barley are Europe, Canada, and the US, making Europe having most of the top maltsters. However, maltsters are spread all around the world
02 Europe
Capacity – 7.2MMTNo. of Plants – 81Top Players – Soufflet GroupMalteuropBoortmalt Gr.
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05APAC
Capacity – 4.4 MMTNo. of Plants - 47Top Players – SupertimeCofco MaltBeidahuang Longken
Sources: UN Comtrade, USDA, Beroe Analysis
KeyTakeaway
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