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HOTEL Technology
CBRE HOTELS & PKF HOSPITALITY RESEARCH MAY 2015
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
1. Mobile keys 1. Download an app and have access to you room.
2. Starwood Hotels has already started rolling this out across the U.S.
2. Wearable technology 3. PMS mobility
1. Managers can remotely manage occupancy, housekeeping, and rate-and-inventory channels.
2. Guest can wirelessly control temperature, lighting, TV, and order room service.
4. Cloud reduces costs 5. Innovation in guest acquisition
5 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Source: HotelNewsNow.com - http://www.hotelnewsnow.com/Article/14016/5-tech-trends-that-will-shape-hospitality
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
TECHNOLOGY DISRUPTION?
Big Data & Emerging Research
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HOTEL PERFORMANCE A Sweet Spot
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
A Year Ago
THE HOTEL MARKET CYCLE
Rapid Development
Occupancy Declines, ADR Follows
Development at Minimum
Levels
Lodging Decline, Leads Other Sectors
Occupancy Recovers
ADR and Margins Recover
Development Picks Up
Development Slows
Lodging Recovers, Lags Other Sectors (Not this
Time!)
Long Run Occupancy
Accelerated Development ?
Equilibrium ADR
U.S. is Here
2014
2015
2016/7
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Record Occupancy Levels & Increasing ADR Growth U.S. OCCUPANCY & ADR
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
Occupancy (4 qrt Moving Avg.) - Left Change in Average Daily Rate -Right
Source: STR, Inc., PKF Hospitality Research
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
2014-2016 NATIONAL FORECAST – ALL U.S. HOTELS
Long Run
Average 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Supply 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7%
Demand 2.1% 3.0% 2.2% 4.5% 3.1% 1.9%
Occupancy
61.9% 61.4% 62.2% 64.4% 65.6% 65.8%
ADR 2.9% 4.2% 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 6.3%
RevPAR 2.9% 6.8% 5.4% 8.3% 7.3% 6.5%
RevPAR driven by ADR Growth
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® March-May, 2015, STR, Inc.
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Change in Telecommunications and Movie Rental Revenue U.S. HOTELS - DISRUPTION
-48.8%
-42.4%
-12.3%
-4.8%
-60% -40% -20% 0%
Movie Rental
Telecommunications
Change: 2013 to 2014 Change: 2007 to 2014
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company Trends® in the Hotel Industry Report
$1.72 – $0.92
$0.83 – $0.39
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Distribution of Unit-Level Marketing Department Expenses* MARKETING DEPARTMENT EXPENSES*
Salaries & Wages 43.6%
Employee Benefits 14.0%
E Commerce
1.2%
Advertising 10.0%
Other Marketing
5.0%
Selling 26.4%
2007
Salaries & Wages 44.8%
Employee Benefits 15.3%
E Commerce
2.4%
Advertising 5.9%
Other Marketing
4.7%
Selling 27.0%
2013
Note: * Exclusive of franchise related costs.
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, Trends® in the Hotel Industry
$2,837 PAR $2,996 PAR
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Compound Annual Growth Rate Percentage: 2007 - 2013 MARKETING DEPARTMENT EXPENSES*
1.4%
2.5%
15.7%
-7.5%
0.7%
1.4%
0.5%
3.9%
9.3%
-7.1%
-8.4%
5.0%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Salaries & Wages
Employee Benefits
E Commerce
Advertising
Other Marketing
Selling
Full-Service
Limited-Service
Note: * Exclusive of franchise related costs, per available room
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, Trends® in the Hotel Industry
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Q1 2015 y-o-y Change in Channel Bookings TRANSIENT HOTEL BOOKING BY CHANNEL
Brand Website, 33.6%
CRO-Central Reservation
Office, 14.3%
Direct to Hotel, 21.0%
GDS, 15.2%
OTA, 15.9%
+7.1%
+15.1%
+1.1%
-8.4% -6.1%
Source: TravelClick
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
INTERNATIONAL HOTEL BOOKINGS
Source: International Trade Administration
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
International Visitation to the United States 2005 - 2013 INTERNATIONAL TRAVELERS
Source: Department of Commerce
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES Online Travel Agency Market Share for the U.S.
14
Source: PhoCusWright U.S. Online Travel Overview
75%
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
EXPEDIA In addition to it’s U.S. site, Expedia has localized websites for 30 countries…
Argentina Denmark India Mexico Spain Australia Finland Ireland Netherlands Sweden Austria France Italy New Zealand Taiwan Belgium Germany Japan Norway Thailand Brazil Hong Kong South Korea Philippines UK
Canada Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
… and multiple consumer brands to choose from:
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS “I generally book accommodations…”
Millennials %
Xers%
Boomers %
Matures%
Through hotel provided website 40 49 51 60
Through an OTA 42 31 27 14
Over the phone, from a traditional travel agent 8 7 8 10
Haven’t booked a Hotel 3 5 7 8
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
TRIPBAM
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
TRIPBAM
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GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING ● PKF Hospitality Research
A NEW DISRUPTOR?
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Part of the new “share economy” – putting stranded assets to work. • List a spare room, an extra couch, your vacation home, etc… on
their website. 1,000,000+ rooms in inventory world wide.
• 3,000+ castles, 2,000 treehouses, 900 islands and 400 lighthouses. Who benefits:
• Host receives “found money”. • Guest has a different experience, often at a attractive price. • Airbnb earns a fee from both.
Headwinds: • Jurisdictional compliance issues, business travelers
WHAT IS AIRBNB?
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
• In 2007, San Francisco’s Occupancy Level was 74.5% • There was a design conference coming to San Francisco
and the city’s hotels were fully booked, so a few guys came up with the idea of renting out three airbeds on their living-room floor and cooking their guests breakfast.
• The next day they created a website, airbedandbreakfast.com
• 6 days later they had their first guests • In 2014 San Francisco’s occupancy level was 84.1% and
there are now roughly 6,000 hosts in the city.
Origins INCENTIVES FOR NEW SUPPLY
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
INDUCED SUPPLY?
Dark Green Circle Indicates Record Occupancy levels by 2015
Source: PKF-HR Hotel Horizons® June – August 2014 Edition, Airbnb.com as of July 2014
Size of circle reflects hotel supply
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
• Roughly 1 Million units available worldwide • Latest round of funding values them at $20 billion
IS AIRBNB A THREAT?
“Our belief is that lodging rental websites are stimulating demand, rather than displacing existing demand,” – Ian Carter , Hilton’s President of Development
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NYC Airbnb Monthly Reviews
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
SHOULD WE BE WORRIED? • Only seeing large number of
hosts in major MSAs with high occupancy levels
• According to Airbnb 20% of guests stay 30 days or longer1, 39% of guests wouldn’t have otherwise made a trip if it wasn’t available on Airbnb2.
• Increase your cities ability to host large events (~120,000 people stayed in Airbnb rooms for the World Cup equating to $38 million in Revenue)
According to “Airbnb in the city” from the New York State Attorney General • Revenues collected by Airbnb and
its host were roughly $200 million in 2013. This is equivalent to a average performing 2000 room hotel in the city. ~1.8% of NYC supply. Up to 300 million in 2014.
• 6% of Hosts make of 37 percent of revenues
• 72% of Airbnb rentals are in violation of state and local laws
• In April 2014, in direct response to NYAG’s investigation, Airbnb publically claimed it had barred many large commercial users.
1 - Quote from Skift interview with Chip Conley 2 - From Airbnb survey on Portland, OR
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Airbnb Units as a Percent of Hotel Supply INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Mar
ketN
ame
New
Yor
kA
ustin
Los
Ange
les
Mia
mi
San
Fra
ncis
coO
akla
ndLo
ng Is
land
Por
tland
San
Jos
e-S
anta
Cru
zS
eattl
eB
osto
nS
alt L
ake
City
Oah
uN
ew O
rlean
sA
nahe
imS
an D
iego
Fort
Laud
erda
leD
enve
rP
hoen
ixW
ashi
ngto
n D
CTu
cson
Phi
lade
lphi
aR
alei
gh-D
urha
mN
ashv
ille
Chi
cago
Wes
t Pal
m B
each
Orla
ndo
Cha
rlest
onS
avan
nah
New
ark
Loui
sville
Bal
timor
eP
ittsb
urgh
Alb
uque
rque
Tam
paM
inne
apol
isA
tlant
aH
artfo
rdS
acra
men
toC
leve
land
Cha
rlotte
Ric
hmon
dH
oust
onIn
dian
apol
isD
alla
sFo
rt W
orth
Nor
folk
-VA
Bea
chM
emph
isK
ansa
s C
ityC
olum
bus
Det
roit
Jack
sonv
ille
San
Ant
onio
Cin
cinn
ati
18 Markets above 5%
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, STR, Airbnb.com
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Percent increase in Airbnb Units over the Past Year (Left) & 2014 ADR Change (Right)
INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Pho
enix
Nor
folk
-VA
Bea
chR
alei
gh-D
urha
mN
ewar
kN
ew Y
ork
Ric
hmon
dC
leve
land
Sal
t Lak
e C
ityK
ansa
s C
ityS
an A
nton
ioA
tlant
aP
hila
delp
hia
Pitt
sbur
ghTu
cson
Col
umbu
sD
enve
rO
rland
oM
emph
isH
oust
onD
etro
itFo
rt W
orth
Jack
sonv
ille
Dal
las
Aus
tinN
ashv
ille
Cha
rlest
onM
inne
apol
isS
an J
ose-
San
ta C
ruz
Wes
t Pal
m B
each
Sea
ttle
Tam
paC
inci
nnat
iA
lbuq
uerq
ueLo
uisv
illeH
artfo
rdFo
rt La
uder
dale
Mia
mi
Sac
ram
ento
Bal
timor
eO
ahu
Ana
heim
Los
Ange
les
New
Orle
ans
Bos
ton
Sav
anna
hC
hica
goP
ortla
ndLo
ng Is
land
Was
hing
ton
DC
Oak
land
San
Fra
ncis
coS
an D
iego
Cha
rlotte
Sai
nt L
ouis
Indi
anap
olis
Data indicates that increases in Airbnb supply negatively
impacts ADR growth.
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, STR, Airbnb.com
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
Source: Insideairbnb.com
~ 20,000 Reviews Per Month in Q4 2014 at an average stay of 5.8 nights = 116,000 Room Nights or 4% of total demand for New York City Hotels
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
New York City INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
Source: Insideairbnb.com
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
New York City INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
• 76% of NYC Listings are less than $200 • Current Listing are only about 15% occupied
Price Levels
# of Units
Source: Insideairbnb.com
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
A TOOL TO FIND UNSATISFIED DEMAND?
219 Properties = 30% of Atlanta’s Airbnb supply
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
A TOOL TO FIND UNSATISFIED DEMAND? Only Hotel within a 2 Mile Radius
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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
REVIEWPRO
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Online Reputation Guest Surveys
GUEST INTELLIGENCE = ORM + GSS
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
INFORMATION IS POWER
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Information is power. You already apply rigorous financial analysis on your hotel projects, and now you can supplement that with trend information from online reviews to provide guidance on how those hotels will perform in the future. ReviewPro synthesizes millions of pieces of hotel guest feedback from hundreds of sources into competitive benchmarking and trending consumer preferences to help you make the best transaction recommendations. Hotel guests today are more talkative than ever, saying anything they want about any aspect of a hotel, neighborhood or city - at any time. It's time to turn all that feedback into intelligence that gives you and your clients the advantage.
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Home Locations for Visitors AIRSAGE – CHARLESTON, SC ON JULY 4TH
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Length of Stay AIRSAGE – CHARLESTON, SC ON JULY 4TH
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
Income of Visitors AIRSAGE – CHARLESTON, SC ON JULY 4TH
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
AIRSAGE - FINAL FOUR ANALYSIS
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ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS
AIRSAGE – FINAL FOUR ANALYSIS
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PKF Hospitality Research 3475 Lenox Road, Suite 720 Atlanta, GA 30326 Tel: +1 404 842 1150 www.pkfc.com
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