CBRFCMay 2014
Water Supply Webinar
May 6, 2014
Greg Smith
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
April Water Supply Webinar
• April Weather & Streamflow• Snow Situation• Water supply forecasts• Upcoming weather
April 2014 Upper Air PatternWEEK-1: Started wet/cool WEEK-2: transition to warmer/dryer
WEEK-3: Dryer / Mild WEEK-4: Trough / wetter-cooler
Copper Mountain SNOTEL – April Accumulated Precipitation
Copper Mountain SNOTEL – April Temperature
April Streamflow
Precipitation
April Temperatures
Upper Green above
Flaming Gorge
Duchesne Yampa/White
Upper Colorado
above Cameo
Gunnison Dolores/San Miguel
San Juan Bear Weber Six Creeks Utah Lake0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
APRIL 2014%AVERAGE UNREGULATED VOLUMES
% A
vera
ge
SITE Apr % avg rank period of record
Upper Green:New Fork nr Big Piney 133 % 12
60Black For nr Robertson 188 % 3
42Yampa:Yampa – Steamboat 174 % 6
107Colorado above Cameo:Blue – Dillon 182 %
1 55Willow Creek Inflow 225 %
3 95Gunnison:Taylor Park Inflow 134 %
8 57Blue Mesa Inflow 168%
2 46
Provisional Data
Well above Upper Colorado and well below Great Basin
Still affecting water supply forecasts?
Positive affect on the upper Colorado, Yampa, Gunnison
Negative affect on the Great Basin
Persistent dry conditions & lack of snow primarily affecting San Juan
Modeled Soil Moisture – Entering Winter
SnowApril 3rd Snow May 5th Snow
SNOW - Green River Basin (above Fontenelle)
Basin Snow Groups:
CBRFC Model Snow – Dolores River Basin – May 6 2014
Dolores – Rico Basin
Basin Snow Groups:
May 1st Water Supply ForecastsApr-Jul Volumes / % Average
Lake Powell: 7550 KAF / 105%
Flaming Gorge: 1320 KAF / 135%
Navajo Res: 460 KAF / 63%
Blue Mesa: 850 KAF / 126%
Colorado-Cameo: 2950 KAF / 125%
Yampa-Deerlodge:1550 KAF / 125%
Weber-Oakley: 92 KAF / 78%
Virgin-Virgin: 19 KAF / 33%
McPhee Res: 220 KAF / 75%
Provo-Woodland: 86 KAF / 86%
Water Supply Forecast TrendChange in the forecast % of average between Mar 1st and Apr 1st
10 %50%90%
May 1st Official Forecast
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
7550 KAF/105%
ESP will be a combination of forecast + observed to date
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
1130 KAF/156 %
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
1550 KAF/125 %
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
2950 KAF/125%
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
128 KAF/129%
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
850 KAF/126%
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
460 KAF / 63%
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
92 KAF/ 78 %
Upcoming Weather: 1 – Storm system moving through Tue-Thu of this week 2 – Storm system possible Sun-Mon (models disagree)
1
2
Precipitation Forecast – Tuesday 5/6 through Friday 5/9
Quantitative Precipitation ForecastWeather Prediction Center
May 6 - 13
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Maximum Temperature Anomaly: May 7 - 12
Maximum Temperature Anomaly: May 9 - 14
Long Term Precipitation OutlookClimate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
May 2014 May-July 2014 July-September 2014
• Soil Moisture Impacts– Positive in much of the Upper Colorado / Negative Great Basin– May be seeing this affect in the April observed streamflow– Dry conditions & Lack of snow now primary influence in the San Juan/Virgin
• Snow– Near to much above average parts of Green Basin (Wyoming), Yampa,
Colorado-abv Cameo, Gunnison above Blue Mesa, parts of Bear River Basin.– Melting out at lower elevations
• Forecasts– Much Above average Yampa, Colorado abv Cameo, Gunnison abv Blue Mesa– Below to much below average San Juan, Sevier, Virgin and Great Basin
• Weather: – Active pattern, possibly into mid-month.– Increased chances for above average precipitation late summer– El Nino increasingly likely, possibly by late spring or summer
Summary
2014 Forecast Webinar Schedule
June 5 at 1pm MDT
Peak FlowsSpring peak flow forecasts updated by tomorrowPay attention to daily forecasts (rapidly change)Best to communicate directlyWe are available to participate in any calls
Registration available:www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/news/wswebinar2014.html
• Key Water Supply Contacts:– Michelle Stokes (Hydrologist in Charge)– Brenda Alcorn (Upper Colorado)– Ashley Nielson (Green + Yampa / White)– Greg Smith (San Juan + Gunnison + Dolores)– Paul Miller (Great Basin – Bear, Weber, Provo, Six-Creeks/Jordan)– Tracy Cox (Lower Colorado + Virgin + Sevier)
Please contact us with any specific questions