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Chapter 13: International Trade Patterns
• Learning objectives in this chapter:– Describing the evolving patterns of
international commerce– Documenting emerging markets for global
exports– Examining global trade flows in six major
commodity groups
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Backdrop
• Capitalism is in constant political and economic flux (****key interpenetration of these two themes*****)
• This chapter complements Chapter 12, with a largely empirical description of international trade
• International trade has gradually expanded in the post WW-II time period, and its growth has generally outpaced GDP expansion (Figure 13.3)
• Global economic growth has been uneven, and has reflected global recessions and expansions – see Figure 13.1, Figure 13.2, Tables 13.1, 13.2
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World Economic Growth (% Change in GDP)
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Table 13.1: Shifting Proportions of World Output
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1980 1990 2000
Sh
are
of
wo
rld
ou
tpu
t
North America
Other WesternHemisphere
Middle East
Asia and Oceania
Western Europe
E. Europe andRussia
Africa
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World Bank GDP % Change
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Figure clearly shows rising rates of exports compared to overall productionlevels, especiallyin manufacturing
? What about services?
All the evidence we have points to the same trend
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Emerging Markets• Table 13.2 & Figure 13.3 make the point that
globally the developing countries in Asia are the key points of expansion for export markets
Post 2000?
Impact of shift from natural resources to manufactured goods in this bar chart
Text discussion ofdifferences in trade policy
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World Patterns of Trade: The United States
Note Change in Scale!
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The Shifting Geography of U.S. Merchandise Trade
Scale must be off – high by 1,000 Figure 13.7 – U.S. – Canada Trade, Figure 13.5 updates this to 2000Table 13.4 indicates how concentrated U.S. trade is with a few nations
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U.S. Services Trade
• Unlike merchandise, the U.S. has a big trade surplus in services
• Exports include quasi-services such as software
• Intellectual property & multimedia• Telecommunications• Travel – business & tourist• Financial• ??? Offshoring of services???
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U.S. Trade in Key Commodities
The rise of Airbus,Bombardier (sp?)
Rise of imports fromJapan, Korea, Mexico,And Canada
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U.S. Trade in Key Commodities
The shift from a net exporterto a net importer
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Canadian Exports: The U.S. Dependence
Mismatch in size between U.S. and Canadian economies
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Canadian Exports: From A Staples-based economy to diversified products
Mosttrade today iswithouttariffs:but lumber exports toU.S. arean exception
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The EU
• The largest trading block of countries in the world – see Figure 13.10
• Exports are relatively large, given the population of Europe
• There are several explanations for this:– The relative wealth of European countries– The small sizes of the countries and their
relatively strong reliance on neighbors for markets (like states in the U.S. in many ways)
– Highly developed transportation system
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Germany: Europe’s Largest Exporter
Solid trade surplus
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Great Britain: More strongly tied to Europe than Germany, but this
figures excludes service exports
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France: Strong European Ties
A more diversified mix of exports and imports than Germany or the U.K.
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Italy: Much more Strongly Integrated with Europe than Germany, UK, and France
Is a gravity model type relationship evidence in %’s of exports/imports forGermany, Italy and France?
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Western Europe’s Trade Balance
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Latin America
• A divergent set of economies – some very stable, others unstable – some very poor and others with middle incomes
• Diverse resource endowments• Diverse historical backgrounds• Diverse political structures• The shift in development strategies from
import-substitution to export-led industrialization
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Mexico’s Exports & Imports
Huge U.S. Dependence
Relatively largestaples exports
Ignores servicesexports / imports