Publisher:
Bank Indonesia
Information and Orders:
Bank Indonesia
Financial Stability Review (FSR)“to safeguard the stability of the Indonesian
Rupiah by maintaining monetary and system stability for sustainable
development”.
MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY DEPARTMENT
“Strengthening Financial System Stability Amidst Onerous
ii
“Memperkuat Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan
iii
Foreword .......... ............................................................................................................................................................... ix
.......................................................................................................................................................... xiii
................................................................................................................................ 3 .............................................................................................. 3
................................................................................................................... 8 ...........................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................... ............................................................
...................................................
........................................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................... ...................................................................
............................................................................................ ...............................................................................................
...........................
........................................................................................................................ ........................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................. ......................................................................................................
................................................................................................................................... 73
............................................................... 77 ......................................................................................................................................... 77
........................................................................................................... ..............................
........................... .......................
............................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................
................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................
................................................................................................. ...............................................................................................................................
...........................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
..................................................................................... ............................................................................................................
......................................................................... ..............................................................................................................................................
................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................... ...........................................
....................
Table of Contents
List of Tables, Graph and Figures
Tables1.1.
................. 21 ................................. 22
........................................................ 342.2.
......................................................... 34 ............. 37
........................... 402.5. 42
................ 42
3.1. ................................ 58
3.2. ................................................ 58
............................... 593.4. ....................................... 61
......................................................... 63
.............................. 64 ............ 66
............. 66
.............................................................. 67
............ 68... 73
...................... 78 ............................... 79
........................ 80 ............. 80
......................... 80 ............ 81
........ 83 ............... 83
4.9. 84 ........................................ 85
................................ 86................................................. 88
.................................................. 88
.............................................................. 89 ................. 89
.............................................................. 90
............................................................. 904.18. 91
...................... 91 ............................... 92
............... 98
........................................ 100
............................. 101
....................................................... 102
.................. 113 ...... 116
............................................................. 127 ......... 132
Graph ..... 4
............ 5 ....... 5
............................ 6
.......................................................... 61.7. .................. 7
...................... 7 .......................... 7
............... 7
.................................................. 8
.................................................. 8 ............................................. 9
1.14. ....................... 9 .............................................. 9
................................................... 10 ....................... 11
1.18. ............................................ 11
............................ 12 ......................................... 12 ......................................... 12
1.22. .. 13 ..................... 13
1.24. .............................................................. 13
...... 14 ........... 15
..................... 161.28.
............................................... 161.29.
................................................ 171.30. .............. 18
................. 19 ... 20
...................................................... 20 ............. 21
....... 29 30
..................... 30
....................... 30 ...... 30
..................................................... 31 .... 31
.................. 31
......................................................... 31
32
....................... 32 ......... 32
............................... 33 ... 33 ... 33
2.16. 33 ........ 33
.................................................... 34 .......................................................... 34
..................................... 35 ............................ 35
.................. 35 .......... 35
2.24. 35 ............................ 36
.................................. 36 .............................. 36
....................................... 36
................................................................. 37
............................ 37 ............................. 37
..................... 38 .......... 38
........................ 38 ....................... 38
............................ 39 ...................................... 39
............... 40 ................................... 41
.......................................... 41 ................................. 41
............................... 44 ....................................... 44
Graph ..................... 44
............................................ 44 ..................... 44
................................................... 45 ........................... 45
............................................................. 46 ................... 46
............................................................. 47
............................................................ 48
...................................... 55 ..................................... 56
.............................. 56 .......................................... 57
.................... 57 .......................... 57
.......... 58 .......................... 59
....................... 60 ...................................... 60
................. 60 .......................... 60
............................ 613.14. ......... 61
. 61 ...... 61
............... 62
.......................................................... 62 .......................................... 62
.......... 63
.............................. 643.23. 65
... 65
.......................................... 65 ............ 66
... 67 ................ 71
......... 7172
................................ 72 ................................ 72
74
................................................... 78
78 ...................................... 79
4.5. .............. 79 ......................... 80
4.7. ........................................................... 81
.............................. 81................................................... 82
.............................. 82 ............................. 82
.................. 82 .......................... 83
......................... 84 ............................ 85
................ 85 ........................ 85
.. 86
.......................................... 87 ......................................................... 89
4.22. 904.23. ............................................ 92
.............. 92 .................................................... 92
................... 934.27. ...................... 944.28. ............................. 94
................. 94 ............................. 95
................. 95 ..................................... 95
...................... 95 ...................................... 96
.................. 96 ................................... 96
4.37. FC Financing ..................................................... 96 ..................... 97
........................ 97 .............................................. 97
.... 97 ... 98
4.43. ..... 98 ..... 98
99..................... 99
.............................. 99 ..................... 100
vii
Graph4.49. 100
Companies ....................................................... 1014.51. RBC at Public listed Insurance Companies in 2013 and 2014 ............................................. 102
Stress Case ........................................................ 103 ..................... 103
Deposits ........................................................... 104Box Graph 4.3.1 Bank Interconnectedness Nonbank
.................... 107Box Graph 4.3.2 Bank Interconnectedness with Five
in Indonesia ...................................................... 107Box Graph 4.3.3. Interconnectedness Bank and Non
....... 108Box Graph 4.3.4. Interconnectedness Bank and Non
.......... 108
with NBFI ......................................................... 108
. 114 .............. 114
.......................... 115................... 115
.............. 117 .. 117
in December 2014 ............................................ 118
6.1. Credit Growth................................................... 1296.2. Deposit Growth ................................................ 129
............................ 129 ............ 132
132
Glossary
ix
th
Foreword
x
Agus D. W. Martowardojo
th
xi
Summary
xii
xiii
1
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Financial System Stability 1
2
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
3
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
1.1 GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKET RISKS
Chapter 1 Financial System Stability
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
GovernmentBonds (bps)
5 - year CDS (bps)
Stock Index(%)
Exchange Rate
sem-to-sem
Negara Maju
UnitedStates
(36) 1.27 5.92 -
UK (91) 2.57 (2.64) (8.50)
Japan (24) 30.18 15.09 (15.13)
Germany (70) (2.58) (0.28) (12.33)
Emerging Markets in East Asia
Advance Countries
China (44) 9.33 57.92 (0.04)
Hong Kong (14) 1.79 (0.05)
Indonesia (42) (0.68) 7.14 (4.28)
South Korea (57) 0.50 (4.33) (7.25)
Malaysia 10 20.51 (6.45) (8.19)
The Philippines 20 3.83 5.64 (2.38)
Singapore (4) 3.36 (5.55)
Thailand (107) (10.64) 0.80 (1.50)
Sumber: Bloomberg
Yield of 10 - year
(%)
sem-to-sem sem-to-sem sem-to-sem
Turkey
0 50 100 150 250200
Brazil
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
China
Japan
Germany
US
31-Dec-14 30-Jun-14
5
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
South Korea
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4*
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
INDIA INDONESIA
%
India Indonesia China Turkey
2014 2015 2016 2017 Longer run
Percent
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
0.00 5.00%
THBPHPIDRINR
CNYKRWSGDMYRTRYZARBRLJPY
EUR
5.0010.00
-0.54-5.45
-4.41
-4.04
-0.19
-1.29
-3.81
-13.08
-11.16
-8.47
-7.87
-0.04
-0.73
-1.74
-1.97
-2.44
-3.77
-4.36
-6.34
-8.31
-9.02
-11.12
-12.10
-13.26
15.00
2014 vs 2013
point-to-point average
(5.00) 5.00-
0.27
IDR apresiasi
0.69
2.114.90
6.967.81
9.90
10.13
11.2411.72
10.00 15.00
JPYIDR
EURIDR
MXNIDR
ZARIDR
TRYIDR
MYRIDR
KRWIDR
CNYIDR
INRIDR
PHPIDR
THBIDR
USDIDR (1.74)
(1.01)
(1.44)
31 Des 2014 vs 31 Des 201350
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
Q4 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 LaterQ2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15
Taper endannounce.
Taper ends
Jul-14
Agus-14
Sep-14
Okt-14
Nov-14
Des-14
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Jan-13
Index, 1 Jan’10=100 Index, 1 Jan’10=100
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Index50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr-
13M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3Au
g-13
Sep-
13O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3De
c-13
Jan-
13Fe
b-14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14O
ct-1
4N
ov-1
4De
c-14
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2011
* Preliminary ** Projected
2012 20142013*
Billion USD
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1*
Q2*
Q3*
Q4*
*
Other InvestmentCapital and Financial Account PreliminaryDirect Investment
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
-12,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
Million USD Rp/$
2010
Q1
201
0 Q
2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
201
1 Q
2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
201
2 Q
2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
201
3 Q
2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
201
4 Q
2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
Current Account (LHS) Exchange Rate (RHS)
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
-25-20-15-10-5051015202530
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Feb-
13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb-
14
Apr
-14
Jun-
14
Aug
-14
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
(RHS) 10-Year SBN Yield
Yield Net Purchases/ (Rp T)
1.2 DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKET RISKS
5,226.9
(25.00)
(20.00)
(15.00)
(10.00)
(5.00)
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
Feb
13
Apr
13
Jun
13
Aug
st 1
3
Oct
13
Dec
13
Feb
14
Apr
14
Jun
14
Aug
st 1
4
Oct
14
Dec
14
(T) IDX Composite
IHSG Trillion
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
% yoy
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08De
c-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09Se
p-09
Dec-
09M
ar-1
0
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3
Jun-
13Se
p-13
Dec-
13M
ar-1
4
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-
14
GDP Growth Interest Rate Speard (%)
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
Billion US$
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec-
08M
ar-0
9Ju
n-09
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-
14
Current Account Overall Balance
115110105100
95908580757065605550
US$ / Barel24-Jun-14
Concerns over
in IraqUS commences
Saudi Arabia
Asian buyers
Main oil drill in Libya resumes
111.59
6-Jan-1553.26
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
- 52%
Date : 6-Jan-15
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million US$
Private - Non Bank Private - Bank Goverment andCentral Bank
11
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
1.3 FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY IN INDONESIA
1
1.4 SOURCES OF FINANCIAL IMBALANCES
Procyclicality2
:Normal : Alert : : Crisis
3,0
2,5
1,5
0,5
2,0
1,0
20
02
M0
1
20
02
M0
5
20
02
M0
9
20
03
M0
1
20
03
M0
5
20
03
M0
9
20
04
M0
1
20
04
M0
5
20
04
M0
9
20
05
M0
1
20
05
M0
5
20
05
M0
9
20
06
M0
1
20
06
M0
5
20
06
M0
9
20
07
M0
1
20
07
M0
5
20
07
M0
9
20
08
M0
1
20
08
M0
5
20
08
M0
9
20
09
M0
1
20
09
M0
5
20
09
M0
9
20
10
M0
1
20
10
M0
5
20
10
M0
9
20
11
M0
1
20
11
M0
5
20
11
M0
9
20
12
M0
1
20
12
M0
5
20
12
M0
9
20
13
M0
1
20
13
M0
5
20
13
M0
9
20
14
M0
9
20
14
M0
1
20
14
M0
5
78,68%
1,26%10,89%
2,63%
5,89% 0,15% 0,50%Banks
Rural Banks
Insurers
Pension Funds
Finance Companies
Guarantors
Pawnbrokers
12
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
3
Financial Cycle(FBF/RHS)
Business Cycle(FBF/LHS)
FC Peak(TP)
FC Trough (TP)
Crisis
0.10 0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
(0.01)
(0.01)
(0.02)
(0.02)
2007Q2
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
-
(0.02)
19
93
Q1
19
93
Q4
19
94
Q3
19
95
Q2
19
96
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q2
19
99
Q1
19
99
Q4
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
03
Q3
20
04
Q2
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q3
20
07
Q2
20
08
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q2
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q3
(0.04)
(0.06)
(0.08)
(0.10)
1995Q1
2000Q2
2009Q4
2013Q3
2005Q2
20
16
Q2
1998Q2
1999Q2 2009Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q2
20
11
Q1
40.0 8.0
7.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
6.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Credit Growth (%. yoy) GDP Growth (%. RHS)
40.0 3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2.035.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Crisis 2005 Crisis 2008
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Credit-to-GDP Gap (%. RHS) Credit to GDP (%)r Trend
40%
Overheated
Overheated
Overheated
Overheated
35
30
25
20
15
Sep-0
1
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-
10
Sep-10
Mar-
11
Sep-1
1
Mar-
12
Sep-12
Mar-
13
Sep-13
Mar-
14
Sep-14
Credit to GDP (%) Trend
13
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
% Million US$
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
De
c-1
2
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-14
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
GDP (yoy. RHS) Public External Debt (LHS) Private External Debt (LHS)
Billion USD
Government + Central Bankand Private
PrivateGovernment + Central Bank
Billion USD
Dec
-05
Dec
-07
Dec
-09
Dec
-13
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Dec
-11
Dec
-06
Dec
-08
Dec
-10
Mar
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-03
Dec
-12
Dec
-14
Dec
-04
Dec
-03
Dec
-05
Dec
-07
Dec
-11
Dec
-13
Oct
-14
Dec
-09
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Government + Central Bank GovernmentCentral Bank (RHS) Bank (RHS)
Private
Billion USD
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%
250
200
150
100
50
-
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
State-OwnedNon-State-Owned
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
5 The
ROA ROE DER (rhs) (rhs)
Non-Affiliates
Non-Affiliates
Non-Affiliates
Affiliates
Affiliates
Affiliates
Affiliates
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
kali%30
25
20
15
10
5
-5
-10
-15
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Non-Affiliates
15
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2008
Q1
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
USD USD
Natural Gas (LHS) Crude Oil (RHS)
53,27 USD/Barrel
56,10 USD/Short Ton
2,89 USD/MMBTU
Coal (RHS)
6.500
5.500
4.500
3.500
2.500
1.500
500
-500
2008
Q1
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
USD
1.880 USD/Metric Ton
656 USD/Metric Ton
Rubber (LHS) CPO (RHS)
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
1.4.5 Property Prices
190,00
180,00
170,00
160,00
150,00
140,00
130,00
120,00
110,00
100,00
15,00
13,00
11,00
9,00
7,00
5,00
3,00
1,00
-1,00
Nov
-03
Mar
-03
Jul-0
4
Nov
-05
Mar
-05
Jul-0
6
Nov
-07
Mar
-07
Jul-0
8
Nov
-09
Mar
-09
Jul-1
0
Nov
-11
Mar
-11
Jul-1
2
Nov
-13
Mar
-13
Jul-1
4
%
IHPR growth YoY
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
240,00
220,00
200,00
180,00
160,00
140,00
120,00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5 Large Cities Other Cities
Bandung Jabotabek-Banten
220,00
200,00
180,00
160,00
140,00
120,00
100,00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Palembang Bandar Lampung
240,00
220,00
200,00
180,00
160,00
140,00
120,00
100,00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IHPR TotalPer capita GDP
yoy (%)
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
0,00
Mar-03
De
c-03
Sep-04
Jun-05
Mar-06
De
c-06
Sep-07
Jun-08
Mar-09
De
c-09
Sep-10
Jun-1
1
Mar-
12
De
c-12
Sep-13
Jun-14
De
c-14
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
200
180
SUMATERA
Medan
Padang
Palembang
Lampung
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
250
200
150
100
50
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JAVA-BALI
Bandung
Semarang
Surabaya
Jabotabek
Yogyakarta
Denpasar
250
200
150
100
50
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
KALIMANTAN
Banjarmasin
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manado Makassar
SULAWESI
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Mar
-07
Des
-07
Sep-
08
Jun-
09
Mar
-10
Des
-10
Sep-
11
Mar
-13
Des
-13
Des
-14
Sep-
14
Jun-
12
Total1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
Jabodetabek
Jabodetabek
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
Bandung
Surabaya
Java-Bali
Semarang
Denpasar
Yogyakarta
Mar
-07
Des
-07
Sep-
08
Jun-
09
Mar
-10
Des
-10
Sep-
11
Mar
-13
Des
-13
Des
-14
Sep-
14
Jun-
12
Bandar Lampung Palembang
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.85
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.75
0.60
0.65
Padang Medan
Mar
-07
Des
-07
Sep-
08
Jun-
09
Mar
-10
Des
-10
Sep-
11
Mar
-13
Des
-13
Des
-14
Sep-
14
Jun-
12
Sumatera
Makasar Manado
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
Mar
-07
Des
-07
Sep-
08
Jun-
09
Mar
-10
Des
-10
Sep-
11
Mar
-13
Des
-13
Des
-14
Sep-
14
Jun-
12
Sulawesi
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
GDP Growth (lhs) Credit Growth (rhs)
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
-
Mar
-02
Sep
-01
Mar
-03
Sep
-02
Mar
-04
Sep
-03
Mar
-05
Sep
-04
Mar
-06
Sep
-05
Mar
-07
Sep
-06
Mar
-08
Sep
-07
Mar
-09
Sep
-08
Mar
-10
Sep
-09
Mar
-11
Sep
-10
Mar
-12
Sep
-11
Mar
-13
Sep
-12
Mar
-14
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
% yoy % yoy
GDP Growth (lhs) Non-Performing Loans (NPL) (rhs)
16.00
14.00
13.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
2.00
3.00
-
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
Mar
-02
Sep
-01
Mar
-03
Sep
-02
Mar
-04
Sep
-03
Mar
-05
Sep
-04
Mar
-06
Sep
-05
Mar
-07
Sep
-06
Mar
-08
Sep
-07
Mar
-09
Sep
-08
Mar
-10
Sep
-09
Mar
-11
Sep
-10
Mar
-12
Sep
-11
Mar
-13
Sep
-12
Mar
-14
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
% yoy %
21
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
%12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Agric
ultu
re
Min
ing
Indu
stry
Elec
trici
ty
Trad
e
Corp
orat
e Se
rvice
Serv
ice
2013* 2014**
Determinants of Credit (short term)
-0.156*
GDP Growth 2.069***
0.461***
-0.022***
NPL -0.006***
j te - re = 0.620 -
j te - re = 0.998 -
Determinants of Credit ( )
c -30.717***
-0.014***
GDP 3.407***
22
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Determinants of NPL (short term)
-0.200** GDP Growth -0.158***
10 -0.008* 1.586***
ju te - re = 0.831 -
Determinants of NPL
GDP -0.004*** 0.745***
ju te - re = 0.940 -
23
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Box 1.2 ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF): Advantages and Risks
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ABIF
The ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF)
is an ASEAN initiative to expedite financial integration in
ASEAN, particularly in the banking subsector, under the
umbrella of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). By
signing the Cebu Declaration in 2007, leaders of ASEAN
nations agreed to hasten AEC implementation from
2020 to 2015 (effective from 31st December 2015). To
support the acceleration of the AEC implementation,
ASEAN financial integration initiatives were included in
the Roadmap for Monetary and Financial Integration
of ASEAN (RIA-fin), which among others are facilitated
through the liberalisation of financial services. To
promote liberalisation, the ASEAN Financial Integration
Framework (AFIF) was subsequently agreed by ASEAN
Central Bank Governors in 2011. ABIF was formulated
considering the large role played by the banking
industry in the ASEAN financial sector and in an effort
to accelerate integrated banking. The goal of the
integrated banking is to expand the role of banks from
ASEAN countries to facilitate trade and investment
amongst ASEAN members.
ABIF implementation will bring various advantages
and a number of risks concerning market access and
financial system stability. In terms of market access,
ABIF implementation will benefit Indonesia by creating
opportunities for banks to expand into ASEAN markets,
while business players will have greater access to more
sources of financing. Conversely, ABIF could trigger
a growing presence of foreign banks in Indonesia.
Consequently, when developing the ABIF framework,
Bank Indonesia played an active role in protecting the
national interest by proposing a framework based on
reciprocity and in the spirit of reducing gaps. In terms
of financial system stability, if not well managed, ABIF
implementation could exacerbate systemic risks and
contagion posed by ASEAN banks. Therefore, progress
is being monitored closely.
WHAT IS ABIF?
ABIF is one mechanism for banking integration in
ASEAN that will be conducted through an innovative
and pragmatic approach based on reciprocity to reduce
gaps in terms of market access and operational flexibility,
while remain adhere to prudential principles in each
respective country. Furthermore, its implementation
is in accordance with the level of preparation in each
corresponding country.
Reciprocity in the ABIF framework refers to
mutual market access and operational flexibility
between two or more countries as agreed by the
countries involved. To support implementation
of a mutually beneficial and mutually acceptable
agreement, based on Bank Indonesia’s proposal, ABIF
reciprocity is defined as follows:
a. For ASEAN Members States which do not have a
home-host relationship, reciprocal arrangement
shall be aimed at creating opportunities for
establishing Qualified ASEAN Banks (QAB);
b. For ASEAN members which already have a home-
host relationship, reciprocal arrangement shall
be aimed at reducing gaps in providing market
access and operational flexibility in each other’s
jurisdiction.
The two forms of reciprocity mentioned above
provide a number of advantages for Indonesia. If
24
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
Indonesia reaches agreement with an ASEAN Member
State but has no existing home-host relationship, banks
in Indonesia will receive the same level of market
access and operational flexibility as domestic banks
in that country. Meanwhile, Indonesia can request
ASEAN countries that have an existing home-host
relationship to reduce gaps in terms of market access
and operational flexibility. Market access gaps include
gaps in the number of banking presence, branches and
ATMs. While operational flexibility gaps among others
cover gaps in the foreign banks’ licensing process when
compared to local banks.
BANKING INTEGRATION THROUGH ABIF
Banking integration through ABIF only affects
Qualified ASEAN Banks (QAB). Non-QABs will also
be permitted to expand into other ASEAN countries
through banking liberalisation under the ASEAN
Framework Agreement of Services (AFAS) and Financial
Services Liberalisation (FSL).
Qualified ASEAN Banks (QAB) must meet general
QAB requirements and be approved by authorities
in both the home and host country. The general
requirements include sound financial and strong capital
base, sound management and prudential principles in
accordance with prevailing international standards.
Banking integration through ABIF consists of
two phases as follows: (i) the multilateral phase;
and (ii) the bilateral phase. All 10 ASEAN members
are required to participate in the multilateral phase,
grouped as a Task Force on ABIF (ABIF TF) to jointly
prepare ABIF Guidelines, namely a document outlining
operational framework guidelines for ASEAN countries
to implement the principles and processes of banking
integration under the ABIF framework, including the
general requirements for prospective QABs. Execution
of the multilateral process was performed under the
joint leadership of Indonesia and Malaysia after Bank
Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia were appointed as
co-chairs of the ABIF TF by other ASEAN members. The
multilateral phase had reached its conclusion, marked
by the approval of the ABIF Guidelines by all 10 central
bank governors from ASEAN on 31st December 2014.
The ABIF framework will now be included as a provision
in the Protocol to Implement the Sixth Package of
Commitments on Financial Services under the ASEAN
Framework Agreement on Services, a framework with
a mandate on liberalisation of financial services.
After the completion of the multilateral phase
to formulate the ABIF Guidelines, the subsequent
phase consists of bilateral cooperation between ASEAN
members. During this phase, each ASEAN member that
is prepared to integrate through ABIF will undertake
bilateral negotiations concerning which banks are
QABs as well as the forms of market access and
operational flexibility that will be provided to QABs in
each respective country. The results of the negotiations
will be outlined in the Schedule of Commitments (SoC)
under the AFAS/FSL.
ADVANTAGES OF ABIF FOR INDONESIA
ABIF will allow banks and business players in
Indonesia to contribute more to the ASEAN market.
The role of the Indonesian banking industry in ASEAN
is currently very limited. As of December 2014, there
were six banks operating in Indonesia with majority
ownership from ASEAN countries, namely three
banks from Malaysia and three banks from Singapore.
In addition there is a bank representative office
from Thailand. Those foreign banks have hundreds
of branches and thousands of ATMs operating in
Indonesia. In contrast, there is only one Indonesian
25
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
bank operating in Malaysia, namely an international
offshore bank (not a QAB), and two remittance offices
(owned by Bank Mandiri and BRI), as well as there is
only two Indonesian banks in Singapore, one bank
have a license as an offshore bank and the other as a
full-fledged bank.
The presence of ABIF, which prioritises reciprocity,
and its agreed mechanism to reduce gaps in terms
of market access and operational flexibility, will
create broader opportunities for the Indonesian
banking industry to obtain greater market access and
operational flexibility in the ASEAN region. QABs from
Indonesia will receive the same treatment as local
banks. Consequently, business players will also benefit
from greater access to secure sources of financing for
cross-border trade and investment activity.
One benefit of ABIF that has already been seen
for Indonesia was the successful bilateral negotiations
with Malaysia taken to ensure that the ABIF principles
multilaterally prepared in the ABIF Guidelines can be
effectively implemented, to the advantage of ASEAN
countries. The outcome of bilateral negotiations
with Malaysia was outlined within the Heads of
Agreement (HOA) document, which covers the
presence of Indonesian and Malaysian banks in
each other jurisdiction. The HOA also identifies the
market access and operational flexibility that will be
accorded to the banking institutions once conferred
and established as a QAB in the respective jurisdiction.
The points agreed in the HOA will later be outlined in a
Bilateral Agreement between the banking authorities
in Indonesia and Malaysia. Thereafter, the points of
agreement in the Bilateral Agreement will be included
in the Schedule of Commitments (SoC) under the
AFAS/FSL. The successful negotiations held between
Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to facilitate future
bilateral negotiations between Indonesia and other
ASEAN members.
POTENTIAL RISKS OF ABIF IMPLEMENTATION
Regarding market access, it is undeniable that
ABIF implementation could potentially expand foreign
bank presence in Indonesia, particularly banks from
ASEAN. Indonesia, however, successfully included a
number of principles/articles in the ABIF Guidelines to
mitigate that potential risk, namely: (i) ABIF emphasises
reciprocity, namely that the agreement reached must
be mutually beneficial and mutually acceptable to both
parties; (ii) a spirit of reducing the gap is prioritised
in the application of reciprocity in countries with an
existing home-host relationship; (iii) when determining
the number of QABs, the banking presence of one
country in another is taken into consideration; and
(iv) existing banks from ASEAN countries operating in
other ASEAN countries will receive priority as candidate
QABs.
Through the inclusion of the aforementioned
principles/articles, a large-scale influx of foreign
banks to Indonesia, especially from ASEAN countries,
is not expected to materialise. Nonetheless, banks
in Indonesia must also anticipate the impact of ABIF
by strengthening their capital, the quality of human
resources, the quality and variety of products, as well
as efficiency to boost competitiveness.
Concerning financial system stability, ABIF
implementation could escalate the threat of systemic
risk in the ASEAN region because integrated banking
spreads financial crises through contagion due to
the cross-border transmission of financial instability.
The ABIF framework already contains risk mitigation
through the application of comprehensive ABIF
principles. Consequently, ABIF implementation
26
Chapter 1. Financial System Stability
covers four crucial areas, namely: i) prudential
principles; ii) financial stability infrastructure that
includes cooperation between bank supervisors; iii)
enhancing competence; and iv) the financial safety
net. The active role of each ASEAN member, specifically
the central banks and banking authorities, is still
required to ensure comprehensive monitoring of ABIF
implementation now and moving ahead.
27
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Financial Markets2
28
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
29
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.1 FINANCIAL MARKET RISKS
Shares Tradeable Government Securitas
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sem 1 Sem 2
Trillion of Rp
Chapter 2 Financial Markets
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.1.1 Money Market20
10/J
ul
2010
/Oct
2011
/Jan
2011
/Apr
2011
/Jul
2011
/Oct
2012
/Jan
2012
/Apr
2012
/Jul
2012
/Oct
2013
/Jan
2013
/Apr
2013
/Jul
2013
/Oct
2014
/Jan
2014
/Apr
7.0 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
--
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2014
/Jul
2014
/Oct
Percent Trillion of Rp
Average Daily Non - Overnight Volume
Weighted Average Overnight Rate
Average Daily Overnight Volume
Weighted Average of All Rates
Mei - 11
Oct - 11
Mar - 12
Aug - 12
Jan - 13
Jun - 13
Apr - 14
Sep - 14
Jun - 08
Nov - 08
Apr - 09
Sep - 09
Feb - 10
Jul - 10
Dec - 10
517%
12
7
2
3
1
-1
Max-min Speard (RHS)Highest Lending Rate (%)
Lowest lending rate (%)
Weighted average loans
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percent6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
Buku 4 Buku 3 Buku 2 Buku 1
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
2013 2014
QT 1 QT 2 QT 3 QT 4 QT 1 QT 2 QT 3 QT 4
Trillion of Rp
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2010
/Jul
2010
/Oct
2011
/Jan
2011
/Apr
2011
/Jul
2011
/Oct
2012
/Jan
2012
/Apr
2012
/Jul
2012
/Oct
2013
/Jan
2013
/Apr
2013
/Jul
2013
/Oct
2014
/Jan
2014
/Apr
0.35 1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
--
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
2014
/Jul
2014
/Oct
Percent Million of USD
Average daily non-overnight volume
Weighted average overnight rate
Average daily overnight volume
Weighted Average of All Rates
May - 09
Aug- 09Nov - 09Feb - 10M
ay - 10Aug- 10Nov - 10Feb - 11M
ay - 11Aug- 11Nov - 11Feb - 12M
ay- 12Aug- 12Nov - 12Feb - 13M
ay - 13
Feb - 14M
ay - 14Aug - 14Nov - 14
Aug- 13Nov - 13
Max Min Speard (RHS) Highest Lending Rate (%) Weighted average lending rate (%)
0.50%
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Weighted average loans
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percent Percent0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
2012 Sem I 2012 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2014 Sem I
0
1
-1
2
-2
3
-3
4
-4
Jan
2013
Feb
2013
Mar
201
3Ap
r 201
3M
ay 2
013
Jun
2013
Jul 2
013
Aug
2013
Sep
2013
Oct
201
3N
ov 2
013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
201
4Ap
r 201
4M
ay 2
014
Jun
2014
Jul 2
014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
201
4N
ov 2
014
Dec
2014
Trillion of USD
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.1.2 Foreign Exchange Market
35Trillion of Rp Percent
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
30
25
20
15
10
5
01 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 8 1012 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Repo Volume Repo Rate (RHS)
35Trillion of Rp Percent
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
30
25
20
15
10
5
01 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 10 1 4 7 10
20102009 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Volume LF Rate (RHS)
800Point Rp
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
600
400
200
-200
-400
-600
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nop
-12
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nop
-14
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nop
-13
0
Spread NDF-FWD 1B Average Daily 20D Spread NDF 1B (RHS)
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.1.3 Bond Market
8.0%
7.0120
100
80
60
40
20
Jun-12 Dec-12 Dec-13Jun-13 Jun-14
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Total Volume by Semester (RHS) O/N Broker Swap Premium
Billion of USD
1B Broker Swap Premium 3B Broker Swap Premium6B Broker Swap Premium
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
OPTION
0
2010
/Jul
2010
/Sep
2010
/Nov
2011
/Jan
2011
/Mar
2011
/May
2011
/Jul
2011
/Sep
2011
/Nov
2012
/Jan
2012
/Mar
2012
/May
2012
/Jul
2012
/Sep
2012
/Nov
2013
/Jan
2013
/Mar
2013
/May
2013
/Jul
2013
/Sep
2013
/Nov
2014
/Jul
2014
/Sep
2014
/Nov
2014
/Jan
2014
/Mar
2014
/May
USD miliar
FORWARD SWAP SPOT
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Billion of USD
2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Jual USD
Net beli USD
(600,000)
(400,000)
(200,000)
-
600,000
400,000
200,000
2-J
an-1
41
3-J
an-1
42
3-J
an-1
44
-Feb
-14
13
-Feb
-14
24
-Feb
-14
5-M
ar-1
41
4-M
ar-1
42
5-M
ar-1
44
-Ap
r-1
41
6-A
pr-
14
28
-Ap
r-1
48
-May
-14
20
-May
-14
2-J
un
-14
11
-Ju
n-1
42
0-J
un
-14
1-J
ul-
14
11
-Ju
l-1
42
2-J
ul-
14
6-A
ug-
14
15
-Au
g-1
42
6-A
ug-
14
4-S
ep-1
41
5-S
ep-1
42
4-S
ep-1
43
-Oct
-14
14
-Oct
-14
23
-Oct
-14
3-N
ov-
14
12
-No
v-1
42
1-N
ov-
14
2-D
ec-1
41
1-D
ec-1
42
2-D
ec-1
4Non-residents Individuals
90Billion of Rp Point
115
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sem 1 Sem 2
0
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
INDO INDI THAI MALY FILIP
Jun-13 7.06 7.69 3.63 3.72 4.01Jul-13 7.79 8.79 3.86 4.04 3.19
Aug-13 8.52 8.86 4.13 4.04 3.56Sep-13 8.32 8.97 3.87 3.76 3.38Oct-13 7.35 8.78 3.79 3.65 3.50
Nov-13 8.59 9.09 3.91 4.30 3.34Dec-13 8.37 9.17 3.80 4.20 3.40Jan-14 8.81 8.86 3.78 4.22 4.26Feb-14 8.34 9.06 3.54 4.10 4.39Mar-14 7.99 9.11 3.51 4.01 3.86Apr-14 7.86 9.02 3.42 3.95 3.99
May-14 7.95 8.77 3.57 3.96 3.60Jun-14 8.09 8.58 3.57 3.93 3.80Jul-14 7.94 8.58 3.44 3.81 3.74
Aug-14 8.09 8.75 3.31 3.83 3.86Sep-14 8.28 8.75 3.20 3.84 3.92Oct-14 7.97 8.41 2.98 3.79 3.81
Nov-14 7.69 8.22 2.66 3.74 3.55Dec-14 7.74 8.02 2.49 4.04 3.63
1200
1400
Billion of Rp
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Dec-14Dec-13
Other
Central Bank
9.50
9.00
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
2T 3T 4T 5T 6T 7T 8T 9T 10T 11T 12T 13T 15T 15T 18T 20T 30T
Jun-14 Dec-14
%
INDO INDI THAI MALY FILIP
Jun-13 19.06 9.28 44.58 27.18 42.62 Jul-13 36.63 38.82 16.26 32.92 58.60
Aug-13 19.85 25.99 19.78 16.13 55.97 Sep-13 32.18 8.14 22.74 21.63 46.79 Oct-13 28.82 8.67 10.76 12.88 38.27
Nov-13 17.09 11.56 16.30 23.67 25.60 Dec-13 8.44 11.65 11.23 14.20 46.81 Jan-14 26.04 12.36 12.62 19.43 51.35 Feb-14 10.53 8.09 10.26 9.54 16.75 Mar-14 11.18 7.73 12.66 10.31 34.74 Apr-14 4.28 9.40 12.25 12.33 9.31
May-14 5.36 9.04 21.80 14.67 22.37 Jun-14 4.11 8.11 8.92 8.54 12.39 Jul-14 4.22 7.85 11.49 8.01 14.04
Aug-14 4.40 7.60 10.90 12.58 7.48 Sep-14 8.32 7.83 10.76 5.78 7.80 Oct-14 6.99 8.06 16.13 13.99 10.70
Nov-14 6.98 5.52 17.91 9.53 14.16 Dec-14 17.73 8.77 25.44 25.42 6.45
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PointJu
n-13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep-
13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Short Term Medium Term Long Term
200Point
rebased 1/1/2013
1-5 years 6-10 years 11-30 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
Short Term Medium Term Long Term
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep-
13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Short Term : 3 yearsMedium Term : 5 yearsLong Term : 10 years
(%)
25
20
15
10
5
-
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-1
4
Apr-14
May-1
4
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jul-1
4
Short Term Medium Term Long Term
Point106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-1
4
Apr-14
May-1
4
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jul-1
4
Short Term Medium Term Long Term
Short Term : 3 yearsMedium Term : 5 yearsLong Term : 10 years
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Trillion of Rp Trillion of Rp 25
20
15
10
5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sem 1 Sem 2
Net Flow Outstanding Foreign Holdings (RHS)
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
(%)15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
71
SBN Jun’14
SBN Des’14
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AAA Jun’14
BBB Jun’14
AAA Des’14
BBB Des’14
Corporate Bond Frequency SUN Frequency Outstanding Corporate Bonds (RHS)
180 230
Trillion of Rp
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TW 1 TW 2 TW 3 TW 4
Thousand Time
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia the Philippines
Rebased
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3Se
pt-
13
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
ril-
14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-1
3
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4Se
pt-
14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4D
ec-1
4
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
MSCI Euro MSCI Asia IndonesiaDow Jones
%
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
t-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
No
v-1
3
Jul-
14
Sep
t-1
4
No
v-1
4
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2.1.4 Stock Market
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2012QT 4
IDX Composite
Financial
Agriculture
Basic Industry
Property
Mining
Infrastructure
Trade
Miscellaneous Industries
6.32
16.81
14.05
4.99
12.98
23.56
3.77
8.25
22.20
26.96
11.90
17.47
25.36
12.80
8.97
20.47
11.28
19.80
10.95
17.01
13.43
26.41
13.48
22.61
7.31
26.65
23.51
10.86
8.39
21.34
7.72
1.69
20.09
3.21
11.99
11.74
7.25
5.25
19.45
13.28
10.18
11.84
33.52
5.71
17.12
10.11
7.78
20.17
9.31
15.57
11.97
15.05
33.08
6.00
6.60
9.67
14.69
16.39
9.04
19.46
20.19
15.68
19.35
29.27
19.58
39.92
11.27
27.29
10.57
54.89
44.86
41.96
54.24
58.27
63.79
43.53
42.83
44.05
46.66
50.74
13.18
17.48
11.32
21.11
20.13
19.92
17.73
8.54
29.21
24.31
QT 4QT1 QT2 QT3 QT 4QT1 QT2 QT32013 2014
Trillion of Rp 5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sem 1 Sem 2
Share JCI (RHS)
India the Philippines Indonesia Thailand
Mar
-13
Jul-
13
Mar
-14
No
v-1
3
Jul-
14
No
v-1
4
Mar
-11
Jul-
11
Mar
-12
No
v-1
1
Jul-
12
No
v-1
2
Jul-
09
Mar
-10
Rebased
No
v-0
9
Jul-
10
No
v-1
0
110
105
100
95
90
85
100%
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Feb-
08
Jul-0
8
Dec
-08
May
-09
Oct
-09
Mar
-10
Aug
-10
Jan-
11
Jun-
11
Nov
-11
Apr-
12
Sep-
12
Feb-
13
Jul-1
3
Dec
-13
May
-14
Oct
-14
Non LQ45 LQ45
6,000Trillion of Rp
80%
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
LQ45 LQ45 Share (RHS)
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.1.5 Mutual Funds
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Spread (RHS) JCI
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
rebased 1/1/2000 500bps
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
LQ45
60
(%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-
13
Au
g-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
No
v-13
De
c-13
Jul-
14
Au
g-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
No
v-14
De
c-14
Fixed Income Funds
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
NAB Total Mutual Funds JCI
%
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Mutual Funds (RHS) NAV (Trillion of Rp) (millions)
1 4 7 10
2008
250 900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
200
150
100
50
01 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
2009 2010 2011 2012
1 4 7
2013 2014
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Trillion of Rp
100
110
90
80
70
60
50
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp 50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp 24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp 45
40
35
30
25
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct Jan
Apr Ju
lO
ct
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Equity Funds Money Market Funds FundsFixed-Income Funds Protected Funds Others
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Des'14 Jun'14E
x
c
e
s
s
R
e
t
u
r
n
E
x
c
e
s
s
R
e
t
u
r
n
Excess
Return
BetaBeta
BetaBeta
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Des'14
Jun'14
Excess
Return
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Des'14
Jun'14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Des'14
Jun'14
Equity Funds
2.2 FINANCIAL MARKETS AS SOURCES OF NONBANK FINANCING
Trillion of Rp
Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II
A. Bank Credit 252.81 254.96 251.26 333.75 175.29 206.15B. Non-bank Financing 92.05 62.27 95.25 65.77 64.79 47.48 B1. Capital Market 53.19 44.38 76.48 38.56 51.88 42.28 - IPO and Rights Issues 13.58 16.53 32.35 25.19 26.35 21.27 - Corporate Bonds and Sukuk 39.61 27.85 44.13 13.37 25.53 21.01 B2. Finance Companies 38.86 17.89 18.77 27.21 12.90 5.21
344.86 317.23 346.51 399.52 240.08 253.63TOTAL
2012 2013 2014
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Corporate Bonds (Trillions of Rp)
Average yield of 5-year corporate bonds (%)
Working Capital Credit (%)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Trillions of Rp
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-13
Jun-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-
13
Au
g-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
No
v-13
De
c-13
Jul-
14
Au
g-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
No
v-14
De
c-14
60 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
50
40
30
20
10
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp Percent
IPO
Rights Issues GDP (RHS)
Working Capital Credit (YoY)New Issuers
60 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
50
40
30
20
10
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp Percent
IPO
Rights Issues GDP (RHS)
Working Capital Credit (YoY)New Issuers
2.3 THE IMPORTANCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FOR
THE BANKING INDUSTRY
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Souce of Fund 2012 2013 2014Trillion of Rp
Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II
I. Domes kInterbank Money Market
- Loan Volume 1.066 1.233 1.374 1.241 1.326 271
- Average Daily Rupiah Loan Volume 5.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.7 7.1
- Average Daily USD Loan Volume (millions of USD) 544.2 311.4 224.2 246.0 262.4 291.6
Repo at Bank Indonesia (LF) 0.4 1.1 0.5 5.5 0.1 2.4
Repo by Banks 32.7 41.0 31.1 32.3 113.6 88.9
Bond Market 6.8 7.1 8.5 3.7 5.0 2.0
- Bonds 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.3
- 5.5 6.8 6.6 3.7 4.0 0.7
- Sukuk 0.8 0.7
Stock Market 1.9 4.7 4.2 9.4 1.5 2.1
- IPOs 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1
- Rights Issues 1.9 4.7 2.4 8.8 1.5 2.0
II. Bonds (Millions of USD) 500 500
(Billions of USD) 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.8 3.0 2.2
Fund DisbursementsI. Domes c
Interbank Money Market
- Average Daily Rupiah Loan Volume 5.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.7 7.1
- Average Daily USD Loan Volume (millions of USD) 544.0 311.4 224.6 247.8 262.8 291.4
Deposit Facility 118.3 81.6 121.1 123.5 125.3 98.5
Term Deposits 88.7 180.9 51.7 - - - Average Daily USD Loan Volume (millions of USD) - - - 26.5 23.3 102.3
89.9 79.4 82.1 89.6 98.6 87.0
Reverse Repo SUN 60.3 81.4 73.5 74.6 74.4 88.6
286.0 282.0 298.0 316.0 338.0 374.0
Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II
I. Rupiah Interbank Loans 54 79 74 81 81 76
Foreign Currency Interbank Loans 51 51 50 48 47 39
Repo at Bank Indonesia (LF) 3 4 3 10 1 7
Repo by Bank 6 7 7 10 16 16
Bond Market 7 6 8 3 2 3
- Bond 2 2 3 1 2
- 4 4 4 3 1 1
- Sukuk Bonds 1 1
Stock Market 3 4 7 9 3 3
- IPO 4 2 1 1
- Rights Issues 3 4 3 7 2 2
II. Bond (USD) 1 1
I. D me cRupiah Interbank Lending 89 95 93 95 94 99
Foreign Currency Interbank Lending 48 47 48 49 45 42
Deposit Facility 107 105 110 100 107 134
Term Deposits 51 65 39 - - -
- - - 43 50 76
95 86 91 98 98 108
Reverse Repo SUN 38 30 31 25 36 59
86 86 88 88 91 87
2012 2013 2014
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.3.1 Banking Sector External Debt1
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Government and Central Bank Private
Total External Loans (RHS)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2011
SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 2**SMT 1*
2012 2013* 2014
Million of USD Million of USD
Non BankBank
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2011
SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1* SMT 2**
2012 2013* 2014
Million of USD
Private ForeignState-Owned Private Joint-Venture
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2011
SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1* SMT 2**
2012 2013* 2014
Bank External Debt Bank External Debt Growth
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
2.00
0.00
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2011
SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1* SMT 2**
2012 2013* 2014
Million of USD Percent
LongTermShort Term
100
80
60
40
20
0
2011
SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 1 SMT 2 SMT 2*SMT 1*
2012 2013* 2014
Percent
75.51% 73.09% 75.41% 73.01% 67.43% 64.01% 65.50% 63.69%
24.49% 26.91% 24.59% 26.99% 32.57% 35.99% 34.50% 36.31%
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2.4 F INANCIAL MARKET DEEPENING BY BANK
INDONESIA
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
15.00
0.00
232.93
386.21
904.40
1.168.10
0.47
1.878.37
2.054.57
4.008.25
73.02
0 2.000 4.000 6.000
Year
Dec-14
0.68% 0.00%0.00%
2.17%3.60%
37.39%
19.16%
17.52%
10.90%
8.44%
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
2-A
ug-
14
2-Se
pt-
14
2-Ja
n-1
4
2-Fe
b-1
4
2-Ja
n-1
5
2-Fe
b-1
5
2-M
ar-1
4
2-A
pri
l-14
2-M
ay-1
4
2-Ju
n-1
4
2-Ju
l-14
2-O
ct-1
4
2-N
ov-
14
2-D
ec-1
4
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000 Post
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
FX Turnover (000’s of USD) USD/IDR (rhs)
Percent
2-A
ug-
14
2-S
ep
t-1
4
2-J
an-1
4
2-F
eb
-14
2-J
an-1
5
2-F
eb
-15
2-M
ar-1
4
2-A
pri
l-1
4
2-M
ay-1
4
2-J
un
-14
2-J
ul-
14
2-O
ct-1
4
2-N
ov-
14
2-D
ec-
14
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Post
ave : 32%ave : 32%
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Prior to MRA
MRA Expansion
Sep
t-14
No
v-14
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
t-13
No
v-13
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
t-12
No
v-12
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Box 2.1
th
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
Billion of Rp
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Box 2.2Financial Market Development in the Indonesia Sharia Financial Architecture
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
Chapter 2 . Financial Markets
53
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors3The Household and Corporate Sectors3
54
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
55
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Chapter 3 The Household and Corporate Sectors
3.1 HOUSEHOLD SECTOR ASSESSMENT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2006
2007
1999
2002
2003
2004
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Spending on Non-Food Items52,81%
Spending on Food Items 47,19%
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employed Unemployment Total Labour Force (rhs)
Million PeopleSegment
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012
Note : *) Preliminary **) Projected
2013 2014 2015
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12* 1**
%
17.21 17.69
28.22
24.00
12.51
4.25
11.4
15.08
7.99
Annual growth (%. yoy)
11.4
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.0
1955
1950
1965
1960
1975
1970
1980
1990
1985
2000
1995
2010
2005
2015
2025
2020
2035
2030
2045
2040
2050
3.1.2 Sources of Vulnerability and Household Sector
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
2012
OPTI
MIS
TIC
PESS
IMIST
IC
2013 2014
200
190
180
170
160
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2011
( ) (%)
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
3.1.3 Household Financial Performance
Loan Repayments SavingsLoan Repayments Savings
Loan Repayments Savings
Income Rp1.39 - 2.78 juta Rp2.97 - 4.25 juta Rp4.53 - 5.84 juta Rp6.09 - 7.82 juta > Rp7.82 juta Average72.05% 70.59% 68.50% 67.36% 63.90% 69.69%
Loan repayments 10.91% 12.38% 14.57% 14.45% 17.11% 13.02%Savings 17.03% 17.03% 16.93% 18.19% 18.99% 17.29%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
0-10% 10%-20% 20%-30% >30% Inabilityto save
Rp 1.39 - 2.78 juta 29.32% 7.84% 6.86% 4.18% 3.70% 6.74%Rp 2.97 - 4.25 juta 31.78% 9.56% 8.90% 5.32% 2.91% 5.08%Rp 4.53 - 5.84 juta 20.92% 8.47% 5.37% 2.91% 2.06% 2.11%Rp 6.09 - 7.82 juta 9.14% 2.71% 2.69% 1.46% 1.00% 1.28%> Rp7.82 juta 8.85% 2.98% 2.55% 1.61% 0.93% 0.78%
Total 100.00% 31.55% 26.36% 15.48% 10.61% 15.99%
Income Total
Saving
0-10% 10%-20% 20%-30% >30%Rp 1.39 - 2.78 juta 29.32% 18.51% 5.86% 3.44% 1.52%Rp 2.97 - 4.25 juta 31.78% 18.68% 6.41% 4.59% 2.09%Rp 4.53 - 5.84 juta 20.92% 11.24% 4.35% 3.78% 1.54%Rp 6.09 - 7.82 juta 9.14% 4.64% 2.25% 1.52% 0.73%> Rp7.82 juta 8.85% 3.93% 1.87% 1.96% 1.09%
Total 100.00% 57.00% 20.74% 15.29% 6.97%
Income TotalDSR
2013
2014
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Billion of Rp
Sem I
2011
Deposits Credit Net
Sem II Sem I
2012
Sem II Sem I
2013
Sem II Sem I
2,337.48
1,653.27
684.20
2014
Sem II
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
(trillion of rupiah)
Provincial Netto Deposits / (netto loans) Provincial Netto Deposits /
(netto loans) Provincial Netto Deposits / (netto loansn)
1. DKI Jakarta 444.77 DKI Jakarta 456.73 DKI Jakarta 593.892. Jatim 83.15 Jatim 68.45 Jatim 94.303. Sumut 40.15 Sumut 32.46 Sumut 43.714. Kaltim 15.71 Kaltim 13.76 Kaltim 21.245. DIY 10.00 DIY 8.85 DIY 11.396. Bali 8.26 Kepri 6.12 Kepri 9.707. Kalbar 6.65 Bali 5.86 Bali 6.828. Kepri 6.23 Jateng 3.95 Jateng 6.819. Kep. Babel 4.75 Kalbar 3.43 Kalbar 5.06
10. Papua 4.51 Papua 1.98 Papua 4.9711. Jateng 4.51 Kep. Babel 1.78 Kep. Babel 4.4812. Kalsel 4.44 Kalsel 0.37 Kalsel 2.8613. Papua Barat 1.63 Riau 0.19 Riau 2.6614. Maluku 1.23 Maluku (0.45) Maluku 1.4415. Riau 0.38 Papua Barat (0.88) Papua Barat 1.2116. Kalteng 0.11 NAD (1.48) NAD (0.25)17. Malut (0.00) Malut (2.37) Malut (0.40)18. Sumsel (0.06) Kalteng (3.91) Kalteng (2.14)19. Sulbar (1.67) Sumsel (3.96) Sumsel (2.43)20. NTT (1.98) Sulbar (4.41) Sulbar (2.44)21. Sultra (2.77) NTT (5.18) NTT (3.63)22. Gorontalo (3.49) Lampung (5.74) Lampung (4.63)23. Jambi (4.36) Sultra (6.24) Sultra (5.21)24. NAD (4.39) Gorontalo (6.32) Gorontalo (5.39)25. Sulut (4.75) Sulteng (6.32) Sulteng (5.92)26. Sulteng (5.07) Jambi (6.44) Jambi (5.93)27. Bengkulu (5.18) Bengkulu (6.84) Bengkulu (7.09)28. NTB (5.41) NTB (6.91) NTB (7.83)29. Lampung (5.59) Sulut (7.25) Sulut (8.57)30. Sulsel (6.47) Sumbar (10.30) Sumbar (8.69)31. Sumbar (6.47) Sulsel (13.04) Sulsel (8.95)32. Banten (7.50) Banten (13.41) Banten (11.57)33. Jabar (12.41) Jabar (28.05) Jabar (28.12)
558.90 464.44 684.20
2014
No.
Total
2012 2013
3.1.4 Deposits and Personal Loans in Banking Sector
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
25
20
15
10
5
yoy (%)
Sem II -12Sem I -12 Sem II -13Sem I -13 Sem II -14Sem I -14
24.36
21.24
18.90
Individual Non Individual Total Industry
13.77
18.63
15.81
18.23
14.16
10.96
15.45
13.60
12.22
14.0213.64
13.18
13.09
12.29
11.27
100908070605040302010
0
Deposits
Share (%)
Sem II -13
Sem II -14
Sem II -13
Sem II -14
Sem II -13
Sem II -14
Sem II -13
Sem II -14
Giro Saving Total
50.23
49.77
48.78
51.27
84.32
15.68
84.43
15.57
6.42
93.58
6.37
93.63
43.59
56.41
43.19
56.81
Individual Non-Individual
100908070605040302010
0
Share (%)
Sem I - 12 Sem II - 12 Sem I - 13 Sem II - 13 Sem I - 14 Sem II - 14
53.65
7.69
38.66
55.15
7.16
37.68
54.74
6.79
38.47
54.92
6.43
38.65
52.53
6.21
41.26
51.46
5.94
42.60
Term Deposits Demand Deposits Savings
Demand DepositsTerm Deposit Total SavingsTerm Deposit Rate (LHS) Interest Rate Spread between Term Deposits and Savings (LHS)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
yoy (%) yoy (%)
Sem I - 12 Sem II - 12 Sem I - 13 Sem II - 13 Sem I - 14 Sem II - 14
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Individual Non Individual
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 2013 2014
(%)
Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II Sem I Sem II
50.96%
49.04%
52.19%
47.81%
53.24%
46.76%
54.81%
45.19%
55.03%
44.97%
55.00%
45.00%
2014
2014
December
Juni
Housing
Householdequipment
Others
CREDIT (M of Rp)
CREDIT (M of Rp)Share NPL (%) Share NPL (%)
1. WORKING CAPITAL 430.47 28.95 2.85 483.32 29.24 3.312. INVESTMENT 164.77 11.08 2.81 177.22 10.72 3.453. CONSUMPTION 891.88 59.97 1.46 992.52 60.04 1.42
TOTAL 1,487.12 100.00 2.02 1,653.05 100.00 2.19
Dec-13 Dec-14type of use
Housing
45
35
25
15
5
-5
-15
Jun-
13
Jun-
14
yoy (%)
33.19
21.03
17.91
11.89
Trillion of RP NPL (%)
Household Credit (LHS) Non-Household Credit (RHS)
900
800
700
600
500
400
2.00
1.60
1.20
0.80
0.40
-
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Dec-
14
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
3.2 CORPORATE SECTOR ASSESSMENT
3.1.1 Corporate Performance
Housing Total
NPL (%)
2.14
1.48
1.07
0.91
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Jan-
12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
May
-14
Jul-1
4 NWB 2014 NWB 2013
12.61%
Qt I Qt II QtIII Qt IV
11.13%
23%
21%
19%
17%
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
QT I QT II QT III
2012
QT IV QT I QT II QT III
2013
QT IV QT I QT II QT III
2014
QT IV
(%)
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
TotalMining and Quarrying
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and FisheriesMining and Quarrying
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
3
ROA
12.0010.008.00
6.00
4.002.000.00
ROETA/TL
2013 Q3 2014 Q3
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 20141 Agriculture 1.98 5.50 3.91 11.44 1.08 1.06 1.93 1.95 1.07 0.87 6.86 8.78 0.61 0.722 Basic Industries and Chemicals 5.44 4.99 11.71 10.58 1.16 1.07 1.86 1.93 1.62 1.49 5.37 5.39 0.87 0.873 Consumer Goods 12.61 12.11 23.09 23.61 0.87 1.00 2.15 2.00 1.72 1.67 4.55 4.68 1.39 1.404 3.75 3.78 8.42 9.92 1.52 1.72 1.66 1.58 1.04 0.93 77.56 68.65 0.57 0.545 Miscellaneous Industries 7.39 6.28 17.12 14.33 1.29 1.28 1.78 1.78 1.17 1.17 8.90 8.26 0.99 0.926 Mining 0.01 -0.31 0.04 -0.88 1.76 1.96 1.57 1.51 1.16 0.97 11.76 12.26 0.55 0.547 Pro erty and Real Estate 7.69 6.59 15.50 13.72 1.10 1.06 1.91 1.94 1.77 1.77 2.01 1.88 0.40 0.378 rade. Services and Investment 5.62 1.93 10.22 3.62 0.84 0.91 2.19 2.10 1.63 1.59 7.38 7.75 1.03 0.97
5.21 4.41 11.12 9.84 1.21 1.25 1.83 1.80 1.40 1.31 6.59 6.59 0.79 0.77
Asset TO
Agregat
No. SectorROA (%) ROE (%) DER TA/TL Current Ra o Inventory TO
% qtq % NWB
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2012 2013
QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT I*QT II QT III QT IV
GDP Growth (LHS)Actual
NWB as per Business Survey (RHS)Projected
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
4
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Crude Palm Oil 2.70 4.44 5.08 9.23 1.06 1.07 1.94 1.94 0.95 0.79 0.58 0.71 7.56 9.56Rubber -3.56 -3.13 -6.80 -6.74 1.06 1.27 1.95 1.79 1.23 0.62 0.20 0.28 8.59 12.85Coal -2.60 -1.49 -8.27 -5.28 2.43 2.86 1.41 1.35 1.08 0.82 0.61 0.64 14.06 16.53
0.58 -1.46 4.48 -8.35 4.27 5.26 1.23 1.19 0.73 0.80 0.98 0.96 5.18 4.99
Current Ra o Asset Turnover Inventory TOSector
ROA (%) ROE (%) DER TA/TL
ROA
Coal Crude Palm OilRubber
% 15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2012 2013 2014
QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV
CURRENT RATIO
Coal Crude Palm OilRubber
% 1.8
1.6
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2012 2013 2014
QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV
DER
Coal Crude Palm OilRubber
% 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2012 2013 2014
QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV
INVENTORY TURNOVER
Coal Crude Palm OilRubber
% 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014
QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV QT I QT II QT III QT IV
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
3.2.2 Bank Exposure to the Corporate Sector
Safe Zone Distress Zone Grey Zone
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
%
42.56% 42.53%
Crisis Period
41.01% 41.48%
34.08%
24.44%
Shar
e
Mar
-08
Sep-
08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09
Mar
-10
Sep-
10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11
Mar
-12
Sep-
12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13
Mar
-14
Sep-
14
GDP (rhs) Distress Zone
45
40
35
30
25
20
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0Crisis Period
Share (%) yoy (%)
Mar
-08
Sep-
08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09
Mar
-10
Sep-
10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11
Mar
-12
Sep-
12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13
Mar
-14
Sep-
14
ROA (%) ROE (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
Mar
-07
Ags-
07
Jan-
08
Jun-
08
Nov-
08
Apr-0
9
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-1
0
Des-
10
Mei
-11
Okt-1
1
Mar
-12
Ags-
12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
Nov-
13
Apr-1
4
Sep-
14
DER TA/TL
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
%
Mar
-07
Ags-
07
Jan-
08
Jun-
08
Nov-
08
Apr-0
9
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-1
0
Des-
10
Mei
-11
Okt-1
1
Mar
-12
Ags-
12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
Nov-
13
Apr-1
4
Sep-
14
Inventory Turnover (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS)
%10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Mar
-07
Aug-
07
Jan-
08
Jun-
08
Nov
-08
Apr-
09
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-1
0
Dec-
10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Aug-
12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
Nov
-13
Apr-
14
Sep-
14
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
3.2.3 Private External Debt
2010
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4
%100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2011
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2012
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2013
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2014
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
Dec'13 Dec'14Dec'13 (yoy)
Dec'14 (yoy) Dec'13 Dec'14
Crude Palm Oil 188.81 4.31 5.19 31.95 20.60 0.84 1.19 Rubber 24.98 0.70 0.69 20.83 (2.49) 1.22 3.06 Coal 46.15 1.22 1.27 7.09 4.09 1.39 7.03
122.45 2.92 3.37 24.35 15.32 2.17 3.57
CommodityOutstanding creditas of December 2014
(Trillion of Rp )
Share of TotalCredit (%) Growth (%) (%)
No Economic Sector
Outstanding
December Credit as of
2014 (Trillion of Rp )
Share (%)Growth as
of December 2014. yoy (%)
Gross NPL
December 2013 (%)
Gross NPL
of December 2014 (%)
1 Agriculture 137.98 7.45 12.83 0.49 1.032 Mining 131.95 7.12 11.01 1.42 2.393 Manufacturing 570.01 30.78 13.99 1.60 1.774 77.25 4.17 2.52 0.76 1.975 Con truc 115.66 6.24 29.23 3.77 4.666 Trade Hote and Re taura 356.82 19.27 11.07 1.82 2.617 150.16 8.11 6.29 1.90 2.848 269.29 14.54 2.10 0.69 0.869 28.92 1.56 32.69 1.80 3.1010 14.12 0.76 59.32 0.38 1.79
1852.16 100 11.37 1.50 2.08Total
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
5
Government + Central Bank Private Total ULN
Million of USD
292.58
163
129.74
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Dec-
03
Dec-
04
Dec-
05
Dec-
06
Dec-
07
Dec-
08
Dec-
09
Dec-
10
Dec-
11
Dec-
12
Dec-
13
Mar
-14
Oct-1
4
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 Financial, Leasing & Corporate Services 15,981 21,048 28,390 34,862 37,292 47,528 29.19
2 Manufacturing 19,336 19,471 22,646 25,637 29,464 32,573 20.00
3 Mining and Quarrying 12,103 10,842 16,878 20,346 26,731 26,480 16.26
4 , Gas and Sanitary Water) 9,707 13,142 14,946 16,855 17,028 18,523 11.37
5 4,739 6,272 8,108 10,080 10,110 12,207 7.50
6 3,744 3,157 4,919 6,565 7,814 9,492 5.83
7 Agriculture, Livestock, Foresty and Fisheries 4,063 4,637 4,969 5,744 7,326 7,911 4.86
8 Others 3,242 4,130 4,537 4,852 5,104 6,136 3.77
9 Services 400 769 584 637 975 1,200 0.74
10 291 320 755 667 519 792 0.49
73,606 83,789 106,732 126,245 142,364 162,843 100
Millions of USD
Total
No cono ic Sector Share in2014 %)
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
2010 2011 2012 2013 201411,947 15,785 19,413 22,740 40,288 76.92
Financial, Leasing and Corporate Services 1,225 1,740 1,685 1,622 14,408 27.51Manufacturing 3,871 5,912 7,664 8,261 10,889 20.79
2,496 3,046 4,040 4,072 4,474 8.54Agriculture, Livestock, Foresty and Fisheries 1,044 992 1,599 2,760 3,036 5.80Mining and Quarrying 1,190 1,368 1,719 2,189 2,561 4.89Hotels and Restaurants (THR) 788 1,234 1,424 1,295 2,167 4.14
, Gas and Sanitary Water) 827 899 832 1,883 1,926 3.68204 332 157 309 447 0.85
Others 174 221 253 311 339 0.65Services 127 43 40 37 39 0.08
10,392 11,491 10,872 11,275 12,086 23.08, Gas and Sanitary Water) 4,404 3,840 4,032 4,017 4,022 7.68
Mining and Quarrying 2,364 3,952 2,733 3,230 2,444 4.67Financial, Leasing and Corporate Services 242 188 970 823 2,201 4.20
1,053 1,160 1,190 1,187 1,195 2.28Manufacturing 1,493 1,356 1,092 1,056 1,074 2.05Trade, Hotels and Restaurants (THR) 157 546 498 737 879 1.68Others 295 189 189 193 238 0.45Agriculture, Livestock, Foresty and Fisheries 163 - - 33 34 0.06
- 93 - - - 0.00Services 220 167 167 - - 0.00
22,339 27,276 30,285 34,014 52,374 100
2, A liate
Total (1+2)
NoMillions of USD Share in
2014 (%)cono ic Sector
1, P
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Box 3.1 Indonesia Household Survey of 2014
Household Balance Sheet Overview
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
ASSETS
CA
TLSTd
LTd
FA
TA
TL/FA =3,32%
TL/TA =2,98%
Net Worth
Short-Term Debt
Long-Term Debt
Debt + Net Worth
TL/CA =33,92%
Current Assets
Restricted AssetsInvestment
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
LIABILITIES
Property Others (motor vehicles, Household Equipment & clothing)
Financial Assets
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
76,72 74,48 79,01 78,47 76,93
17,54 16,91 14,10 15,88 16,61
5,74 8,61 6,89 5,65 6,46
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Total debt/Total Assets Total debt/Fixed AssetsTotal debt/Current Assets (RHS)
% %4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
40,00
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,002010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,61
3,30 3,33
2,62
2,98
35,15
26,59
33,49
24,94
33,924,06
3,81 3,71
2,96
3,32
Bank Deposits Nonbank DepositsInvestment Others (Business and Non-Business Accounts Receivable)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
49,81 74,48 50,30 55,29
67,72
40,98 29,2311,23
14,50
3,92 2,71 0,35 2,27 6,55
35,67 42,76
10,607,01 6,59
13,20
Total Debt/income Short-Term Debt /IncomeBank Debt /IncomeLong-Term Debt /Income
%20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
0,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,78 3,03 2,582,12
8,18
13,09 12,3913,46
9,97
13,10
15,75 14,9516,80
12,96
10,73
19,53 17,98 18,93
15,54
18,91
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
Box 3.2 Financial Account
Debtor byresidency andby resident sector
Non-resident
Resi
dent
s
ResidentsNon-
residents creditors
Creditor by residency and byresident sector
Chapter 3 . The Household and Corporate Sectors
PerbankanBank Sentral
IKNB
Luar Negeri
Pemerintah
Rumah Tangga KorporasiSEKTOR
DOMESTIK
SEKTOR
LN
Uang kartal
Uang kartal
Loan
Loan DPK
SBN
SimpananPempus/Pemda
SBN
SimpananValas di LN
SBN Asing
DPK
EquityLoan
SuratBerharga
Giro
Pemerintah
Pinjamandari LN
Loan
SBI & TD Valas
Loan
Financial Corpora on
DPK
SBN
75
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries4Risk Assessmentof the Banking and
Non-bank Financial Industries
76
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
77
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
4.1 THE BANKING SECTOR
4.1.1 Assessment of Liquidity and Risk
Chapter 4 Risk Assessment of the Banking and Non-bank Financial Industries
78
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
25% 140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2012 2013 2014
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
nJu
nJu
nJu
nJu
nJu
nM2 (% yoy) M1 (% yoy) AL/NCD (%) - rhs
120
110
100
90
%
80
70
60
50Jun’12 Dec’12 Jun’13
AL/NCD
Dec’13 Jun’14 Dec’14
Primary (%)Secondary (%)LDR (%)Foreign Exchange (%)
62.5219.54
3.4214.53
63.1519.73
2.3814.74
62.9519.67
1.7115.67
55.7627.88
0.7615.61
56.1428.07
0.4815.31
56.1628.08
0.6415.13
Statutory ReserveRequirement
Sem I-2012 Sem II-2012 Sem I-2013 Sem II-2013 Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1150
1200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011 2012 2013 2014
Trillion of Rp Trillion of Rp
Primary Reserves Secondary ReservesTer ery Reserves Liquid Assets
79
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Sem I-2012 Sem II-2012 Sem I-2013 Sem II-2013 Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014
Credit (T of Rp) 78.32 90.26 99.36 109.59 117.86 129.18 Deposits (T of Rp) 111.21 112.12 130.43 127.89 152.61 157.51 LDR (%)
Credit (T of Rp)Deposits (T of Rp)LDR (%)
Credit (T of Rp)Deposits (T of Rp)LDR (%)
Credit (T of Rp)Deposits (T of Rp)LDR (%)
Credit (T of Rp)Deposits (T of Rp)LDR (%)
70.42 80.51 76.18 85.69 77.23 82.01
490.74 546.17 600.01 677.39 723.06 762.54 598.58 609.06 676.71 686.92 768.22 789.72
81.98 89.67 88.67 98.61 94.12 96.56
877.92 939.64 1,007.13 1,116.03 1,181.50 1,229.52 922.95 1,013.17 1,044.97 1,172.81 1,198.57 1,243.50
95.12 92.74 96.38 95.16 98.58 98.88
1,005.92 1,131.80 1,252.62 1,389.86 1,445.75 1,553.07 1,323.09 1,490.85 1,522.31 1,676.34 1,715.10 1,923.69
76.03 75.92 82.28 82.91 84.30 80.73
2,452.90 2,707.86 2,959.12 3,292.87 3,468.16 3,674.31 2,955.83 3,225.20 3,374.42 3,663.97 3,834.50 4,114.42
82.99 83.96 87.69 89.87 90.45 89.30
BUKU 1
BUKU 2
BUKU 3
I stry
BUKU 4
12.29%
13.53%
6.42%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
De
c-1
2
May
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
De
c-1
3
May
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
De
c-1
4
Semester I Semester II Semester I Semester II Semester I Semester II
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Deposit Growth (yoy) Rupiah deposit growth (yoy) Foreign Currency Deposit Growth (yoy)
(150)
(100)
(50)
- 50
100
150
200
250
Non R
esid
enLo
cal G
over
nmen
tCe
ntra
l Gov
ernm
ent
Priva
te-O
ther
s
Priva
te-C
orpo
rate
Priva
te-In
divid
ual
Priva
te-F
inan
cial
Sem I - 2014 Sem II -2014
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Java 76.09 76.77 76.71Sumatra 11.88 11.45 11.56Kalimantan 4.99 4.76 4.52Sulawesi 2.99 2.92 2.97Bali and Nusa Tenggara 2.56 2.60 2.68Papua and Maluku Islands 1.50 1.50 1.57
Share of Deposits (%)Island
2012 2013 2014
Market Share inSemester II 2014 (%)
BUKU 1 28.74 20.45 17.28 14.07 17.00 23.16 3.83BUKU 2 23.51 14.19 13.05 12.78 13.52 14.97 19.19BUKU 3 20.93 18.12 13.22 15.76 14.70 6.03 30.22BUKU 4 19.87 15.19 15.06 12.44 12.66 14.76 46.75Industry 21.24 16.08 14.16 13.60 13.63 12.29 100.00
Deposits Growth (%) Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2014
Demand Deposits 718.26 767.07 827.40 846.78 911.98 889.59
Saving 939.20 1,076.83 1,066.01 1,212.71 1,167.02 1,284.46
Term Deposits 1,298.37 1,381.30 1,481.02 1,604.48 1,755.50 1,940.38
Total Deposits 2,955.83 3,225.20 3,374.42 3,663.96 3,834.50 4,114.42
Sem II 2013
Sem I 2014
Sem II 2014
Industry(Rp T)
Sem I 2012
Sem II 2012
Sem I 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Smt I 2012 Smt II 2012 Smt I 2013 Smt II 2013 Smt I 2014 Smt II 2014
Demand Deposits Savings Accounts Term Deposits <Rp2 billion Term Deposits >Rp2 billion
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
8.30
8.58
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
(%)
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 INDUSTRY
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
mtm
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 INDUSTRY
Sem I2012
Sem II2012
Sem I2013
Sem II2013
Sem I2014
Sem II2014
BUKU 1 27.20 17.73 11.38 8.59 16.29 24.23 BUKU 2 11.27 7.04 9.55 11.75 9.34 10.93 BUKU 3 0.92 2.44 7.79 14.00 19.22 8.65 BUKU 4 9.05 4.73 1.82 7.40 16.41 18.91 INDUSTRY 7.48 5.17 6.09 10.71 15.99 13.90
BUKU 1 29.68 30.47 33.90 28.59 16.82 33.77 BUKU 2 32.00 2.24 12.82 17.55 17.82 34.69 BUKU 3 30.63 29.03 19.51 19.31 17.28 7.62 BUKU 4 10.00 8.85 19.79 18.87 25.06 40.18 INDUSTRY 23.66 16.10 18.61 19.20 19.83 24.58
Deposits Growth (yoy.%)TERM
DEPOSITS
<= 2M
> 2M
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
12.36 12.65 14.30
5.13
26.85
19.90
(3.68)
19.20
11.83
2.06
11.58
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40(%
Trad
eOth
ers
Man
ufac
turin
g
Agric
ultu
reCo
rpor
ate S
ervic
esSo
sial S
ervic
esM
inin
g
)
II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
11.58%
12.40%
7.68%
6%
11%
16%
21%
26%
31%
36%
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2M
ar-
12
Ap
r-1
2M
ay
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oc
t-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3M
ar-
13
Ap
r-1
3M
ay
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-
14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep
-14
Oc
t-1
4N
ov-1
4D
ec-
14
Semester I Semester II Semester I Semester II Semester I Semester II
Loan Growth (yoy) Rupiah Loan Growth (yoy) Foreign Currency Growth (yoy)
10.83 13.16
11.49
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Working Capital Loan Investment Loan
(%)
II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
12.40
7.68
11.58
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Rupiah Foreign Currency Total
(%)
I-2012 II-2012 I-2013 II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
2012 2013 2014
Java 74.39 74.92 75.16Sumatra 13.26 12.89 12.70Kalimantan 4.38 4.37 4.25Sulawesi 4.43 4.25 4.26Bali and Nusa Tenggara 2.46 2.48 2.53Papua and Maluku Islands 1.09 1.09 1.10
IslandLoan Share (%)
Market Share inSemester II 2014 (%)
BUKU 1 26.97 30.10 25.87 20.64 18.23 17.66 3.69BUKU 2 29.51 24.74 21.57 23.57 20.14 12.54 21.25BUKU 3 26.04 20.34 15.00 19.03 17.52 10.12 32.79BUKU 4 23.59 23.99 24.53 22.80 15.42 11.74 42.27Industry 25.75 23.08 20.64 21.60 17.20 11.58 100.00
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Loan Growth (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
15.09
19.74
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
-13
Feb
- 13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Aug
- 13
Sep
-13
Oct -
13
Nov
-13
Dec
- 13
Jan
-14
Feb
- 14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Aug
- 14
Sep
-14
Oct-
14
Nov
-14
Dec
- 14
(%)Trillion of Rp
Medium Enterprises Small Enterprises Micro Enterprises MSME Loan GrowthMSME Loan Share (RHS)
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
16.96%
19.64%
15.7%12.30%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan
-13
Feb
- 13
Mar
-13
Apr-
13
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
- 13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan
-14
Feb
- 14
Mar
- 14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Aug
-14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Manufacturing
(in percents/ %)
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
41.897.78
27.4820.50
25.5318.9528.61
6.09
15.2522.3415.8414.09
17.2817.83
5.0922.39
18.0861.0411.89
9.58
16.5446.05
4.8113.28
5.4712.1431.5750.82
5.4312.8634.6447.07
5.6412.8234.0347.51
5.5213.1131.5149.86
5.4817.6430.1346.78
5.5916.6428.6949.08
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
MSME Loan Growth (yoy) MSME Loan ShareBUKUSem I 2012 Sem II 2012 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
85
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
(%)4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2008 2009 2010
Gross NPL Net NPL
2011 2012 2013 2014
2.16
1.08
5.0%4.5
3.02
1.86
Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
Trade
Manufac
turing
Const
ruCo
rporat
e Serv
iceAgri
cultur
eSoc
ial Ser
vice
Mining
Others
3.21
4.61
1.491.83
2.252.52
1.911.42
4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0
3.02.49
2.35
1.41
Working Capital Loan
Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
Investment Loan
2.5
%
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Gross NPL (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
Java IslandsSumatra IslandsKalimantan IslandsSulawesi IslandsBali and Nusa TenggaraPapua and Maluku Islands
2.142.461.802.761.141.91
1.912.321.652.360.891.69
1.722.602.132.630.942.17
1.602.432.472.620.862.06
1.932.883.193.321.682.85
2.012.702.972.931.203.68
86
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
2,172,392,152,09
2,192,161,961,62
2,182,401,951,62
1,822,221,931,43
2,162,742,481,63
2,042,822,611,49
Industry 2,18 1,87 1,91 1,78 2,17 2,16
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Gross NPL (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
3.97
7.75
14.30
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2M
ar-
12
Ap
r -1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-1
2Ju
l-1
2A
ug
-12
Se
p-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3M
ar-
13
Ap
r-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-1
3A
ug
-13
Se
p-1
3O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l -1
4A
ug
-14
Se
p-1
4O
ct-1
4N
ov-1
4D
ec-
14
MSME NPL BI Rate Lending Rate of MSME Credit
87
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply
Mining
Real Estate
Trade
Fisheries
Social Service
Manufacturing Industry
7.87%
7.47%
5.74%
4.41%
4.36%
4.32%
3.96%
3.78%
3.77%
3.66%
3.49%
3.25%
3.05%
2.79%
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%
4.1.3 Assessment of Market Risk
(Trillion of Rp)
2010-S1 2010-S2 2010-S1 2010-S2 2010-S1 2010-S2 2010-S1 2010-S2 2010-S1 2010-S2
(%)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
BUKU 1 Cost of Funds BUKU 4 Cost of Funds Deposit Rate (RHS)
BUKU 2 Cost of Funds BUKU 3 Cost of Funds Deposit Rate of BUKU 1 (RHS)Deposit Rate of BUKU 4(RHS)Deposit Rate of BUKU 2 (RHS) Deposit Rate of BUKU 3(RHS)
88
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
6,465,665,564,925,39
6,715,775,865,055,58
6,515,835,885,085,60
8,878,138,517,027,92
9,028,208,777,768,30
9,248,918,977,958,58INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 20141-Month Term Deposit Rate (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
3,072,592,361,892,27
3,002,322,311,872,12
2,592,472,311,852,17
2,302,422,401,802,12
2,672,732.511,922,32
2,402,512,541,902,22INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Demand Deposit Rate (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
3,132,872,721,592,02
3,062,602,651,481,91
2,053,082,681,421,99
3,124,052,511,432,01
2,942,962,601,421,88
2,792,922,741,351,87INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Demand Deposit Rate (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
16,1011,9511,6711,5311,79
15,4311,8011,3211,2311,49
14,8111,5811,1511,2811,41
15,0412,4312,2911,7012,13
15,9613,0912,8712,0512,63
17,6113,3112,8412,2112,80INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Working Capital Credit Rate (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
16,3112,4812,60
9,6111,46
16,0312,1812,22
9,6511,27
15,6511,9012,06
9,9311,14
15,9012,3012,9410,6111,83
16,9212,9913,2211,0312,24
15,9613,3013,2711,2612,36INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Investment Credit Rate (%) Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
15,0915,1114,8111,9113,90
14,9714,5514,7811,5713,58
14,6014,2014,4011,0713,14
14,5014,0514,4611,1413,13
14,4613,7414,7411,4613,30
14,3314,1614,8311,9013,57INDUSTRY
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
89
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%Jun-10
BUKU 1
Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 Industry
(in trillions of rupiah)
PeriodJun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14
0.2819.0820.8019.1920.9520.87
(0.16)(0.56)0.972.774.924.44
< 12 month > 12 month
Value (trillions of rupiah) Jun-13 Dec-13
BUKU 4Trading
AFSHTM
BUKU 3Trading
AFSHTM
BUKU 2Trading
AFSHTM
BUKU 1Trading
AFSHTM
INDUSTRYTrading
AFSHTM
TradingAFS
HTM
TradingAFS
HTM
TradingAFS
HTM
TradingAFS
HTM
TradingAFS
HTM
1.1067.4331.46
22.9762.2614.77
29.6641.0929.25
4.2955.9539.77
9.9661.8428.20
0.5472.6226.84
13.7668.8517.39
13.6149.0137.38
3.3347.1249.55
6.0867.4526.47
1.2966.5332.18
14.0061.5624.45
22.1551.1126.75
2.6235.5261.86
8.0662.1629.77
1.0968.3930.51
21.8958.0920.02
20.9852.7726.25
4.9135.1259.98
9.3962.9427.67
169.771.88
114.4853.4147.4910.4929.57
7.0145.8613.6018.8413.42
3.080.131.721.23
266.2026.52
164.6175.07
148.860.80
108.1039.9566.04
9.0945.4611.4843.20
5.8821.1716.15
3.180.181.501.57
261.2715.88
176.2369.16
180.231.97
123.2655.0070.9915.5441.2414.2153.6611.2628.3114.09
3.320.161.161.99
308.1928.93
193.9885.28
185.102.39
123.1459.5672.4610.1444.6017.7159.9113.2730.6216.02
3.800.101.352.35
321.2625.90
199.7195.65
Jun-14 Dec-14Share ofTotal (%) Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
BUKU 4
BUKU 3
BUKU 2
BUKU 1
INDUSTRY
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
* Sem II P/L is a delta of P/L at yearend subtracted by Sem I P/L Source: Bank Indonesia
2012 - I 2012 - II 2013 - I 2013 - II 2014 - I 2014 - II 2012 - I 2012 - II 2013 - I 2013 - II 2014 - I 2014 - IIBUKU 1 1.52 1.61 1.83 1.81 1.68 1.32 1.23 1.04 1.52 1.22 1.36 0.74BUKU 2 10.74 9.99 11.47 12.00 13.31 11.12 8.09 7.34 8.69 8.40 10.51 7.77BUKU 3 16.08 15.07 16.17 16.72 16.96 11.74 12.47 11.26 12.56 12.75 13.49 8.98BUKU 4 29.82 34.67 34.89 42.23 41.52 45.94 23.94 27.45 28.34 33.22 33.07 36.23Industry 58.17 61.34 64.36 72.76 73.47 70.11 45.73 47.10 51.12 55.59 58.43 53.72
P/L P/L
% %
4.5 3.20
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
3.10
3.00
2.90
2.80
2.70
I-2012 II-2012 I-2013 II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 INDUSTRY*(RHS)
2.85
Source: Bank Indonesia, Monthly Commercial Bank Reports, processed
I II I II I II189.41 201.87 212.91 245.17 268.96 299.03
Placements at Bank Indonesia 5.76 4.22 4.55 3.49 3.27 4.55Bonds 12.36 11.67 11.94 14.37 17.32 19.89Credit 133.60 146.24 154.31 177.21 193.30 210.60
67.20 58.35 72.76 66.88 80.22 68.21Bond Sales 6.49 3.44 2.12 2.08 3.24 3.07Tradin ( ) 18.85 13.41 25.19 33.42 30.94 19.81Devidends, Commissions/Provisions/Fees 18.74 19.80 21.27 23.63 26.67 27.54Non-Opera 10.67 11.26 11.07 14.97 12.82 12.41
Income Account2012 2013 2014
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
I II I II I II91.67 92.04 98.75 116.36 136.06 157.78
1.13 1.52 1.74 2.10 2.24 2.3750.45 50.05 52.86 63.50 79.56 93.37
2.62 2.53 2.80 3.08 3.51 3.491.24 1.21 1.18 1.31 1.76 1.75
34.82 36.70 38.78 46.35 47.46 56.84109.10 109.31 124.89 126.21 138.92 139.92
4.51 1.20 2.01 0.95 1.66 0.9215.23 10.82 21.67 27.02 27.18 16.70
3.59 4.02 4.26 4.55 4.76 5.1324.03 20.31 26.99 14.67 27.38 27.7029.60 33.41 35.02 36.77 39.62 41.13
8.33 8.80 8.74 11.69 13.56 11.83
Cost Account2012 2013 2014
Source: Bank Indonesia
BUKU 1BUKU 2BUKU 3BUKU 4
6.263.384.854.93
6.564.024.865.05
6.634.264.555.09
6.704.254.565.28
5.893.503.425.10
5.823.543.445.10
INDUSTRY* 5.38 5.49 5.43 4.89 4.22 4.23
Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014NIM Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
%70
65
60
55
45
50
40
35
I-2012
BUKU 1 BUKU 2
II-2012 I-2013 II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
BUKU 3 BUKU 4 CIR
53.21
%85
80
75
70
65
60I-2012 II-2012 I-2013 II-2013 I-2014 II-2014
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 INDUSTRY*(RHS)
76,29
Trillion of Rp
4,000 20
%
3,500
3,00019
18
17
16
15
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
I-2012 II-2012 I-2013 II-2013 I-2014 II-20140
Capital Risk-Weighted Assets CAR (RHS)
19.57
Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014 Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014 Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014 Sem I-2014 Sem II-2014BUKU 1 215.19 93.51 10.43 3.99 27.62 21.30 18.83 17.70BUKU 2 88.71 78.01 12.81 10.68 26.37 25.52 29.93 30.02BUKU 3 25.91 24.43 12.25 13.55 17.74 17.60 17.01 17.00BUKU 4 18.63 17.89 15.85 16.59 17.01 17.08 17.01 17.12Industry 19.45 19.57
CARHighest CAR%
Lowest CAR Average CAR
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
24%
22
20
18
16
14
123 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6
2014
18.01
19.57
20132012201120102009
CAR
20082007
9
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
19.50% 18.67%
25.92%
16.47% 17.12%
0.140.12
0.20
0.10
0.14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industry BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4
5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0%
-118.40
-135.29
-118.15
-131.15
-27.99
-509.79
-635.94
-580.00
-629.56
-289.63
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
Industry
BUKU 1
BUKU 2
BUKU 3
BUKU 4
15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0%
95
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
19.50% 18.67%
25.92%
16.47% 17.12%18.59%
16.90%
25.10%
15.19%16.50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industri BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4
-28.90
-35.52
-15.71
-25.63
-12.33
-90.55
-177.64
-81.55
-128.16
-61.65
-200 -150 -100 -50 0
Industry
BUKU 1
BUKU 2
BUKU 3
BUKU 4
500bps Increase
200bps Increase
400bps Increase 300bps Increase
100bps Increase
19.50%18.67%
25.92%
16.47% 17.12%19.36% 18.63%
25.82%
16.45%17.13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industry BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4
-13.65
-0.92
-1.44
-0.53
0.23
-14.34
-4.61
-10.20
-2.64
1.14
-20
-15
-10
-5 0 5
Industry
BUKU 1
BUKU 2
BUKU 3
BUKU 4
50%
20%
40% 30%
10%
96
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
4.2.1 Finance Companies (FC)
291322
342
401 401 413 420
245
284 302
348 348 361 366
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Dec - 11 Jun - 12 Dec - 12 Jun- 13 Dec - 13 Jun - 14 Dec - 14
Assets Financing
(Trillion of Rp)
77
102 105 106117 116 111
165179
192210
223237 246
4 45 5
8 89
-2
3
8
13
18
23
28
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jun-14 Dec -14Jun-13 Dec -13Jun-12 Dec -12Dec -11
Leasing Consumer Financing
( Trillion of Rp) ( Trillion of Rp)
-41.88
-6.07
-27.08
-19.20
-36.90
-155.44
-30.38
-138.41
-96.01
-184.50
-200 -150 -100 -50 0
Industry
BUKU 1
BUKU 2
BUKU 3
BUKU 4
25% Decline
10% Decline
20% Decline 15% Decline
5% Decline
19.50% 18.67%
25.92%
16.47%17.12%17.95%
18.37%
24.53%
15.51% 15.28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industri BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4
97
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
50.00
100.00
Jun’12
101.50
178.66
3.99
105.09
191.82
5.15
105.56
209.86
5.41
117.36
222.97
7.70
115.54
237.05
8.34
110.95
245.74
9.42
Dec’12 Jun’13 Dec’13 Jun’14 Dec’14-
Leasing Consumer Financing Factoring Credit Card
(Trillion of Rp)
1.99 2.07 1.99 2.16
1.61
2.47 2.29
0.17
1.62
0.75
1.46 1.51 1.41
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
Dec’12 Jun’13
Total Financing Total Funding
Dec’13 Dec’14Jun’14
(Trillion of Rp)
Jun-12
303.
88
321.
62
337.
20 379.
32
385.
79
3856
.52
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
-
450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
-
59.76
41.85
83.09
119.18
74.00
50.68
81.14
131.38
82.75
53.21
101.24
142.11
86.09
51.14
111.05
138.24
83.16
51.30
109.22
142.11
66.72
43.77
86.61
124.53
%60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0%-10%
Jun-12
27.72
18.81
53.47
25.49
22.55
51.96
31.43
24.76
43.81
23.81
26.67
49.55
21.50
23.36
55.14
27.59
22.99
49.43
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
>12%
10.01%-12%
98
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
4.2.2 Insurance Companies 2
25.00 84.00
%%
82.00
80.00
78.00
76.00
74.00
72.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
-
ROA
Jun-12
4.52
19.56
77.19
4.26
18.42
78.06
4.23
19.25
77.74
4.21
19.43
77.98
3.49
17.53
81.30
3.54
17.71
82.62
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
BOPO (RHS)
ROE
Life Insurance General Insurance and Reinsurance
Compulsory Insurance Social Insurance
Company Name
PT Asuransi Cakrawala Proteksi IndonesiaPT Reasuransi Maipark IndonesiaPT Asuransi Jiwa TaspenPT Brent Asuransi JiwaPT Asuransi Jiwa BCAPT Astra Aviva LifePT Fairfax Insurance IndonesiaPT Asei Reasurance IndonesiaPT Asuransi ASEI Indonesia
06-Mar-1410-Apr-1410-Apr-1405-Mei-1414-Jul-14
13-Agust-1413-Agust-1409-Okt-1421-Okt-14
New
NewNewNew
New
Fox Types of Insurance
Fox name
Split Insurance BusinessSplit Insurance Business
Licensed
99
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
(Trillion of Rp)
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
472412
523455
616
505
755
610
87.34
%
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Assets Invesments
87.05
81.9480.77
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Gross Claim Gross Premiums
105
145128
163
118
170134
210
%
250
200
150
100
50
-
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
69.57
62.40
71.94
78.49
Gross Claims (trillions of rupiah) Density (thousands of rupiah)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
%1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Density (LHS)
(USD/year)
(%)14.0 12.0 10.08.06.04.02.0-
6.0005.0004.0003.0002.0001.000-
SGP
MY
HK
IDN
EU
USA
UK
JPN
AUS
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Mill
ion
of U
SD
Billi
on o
f USD
Jul 2
013
Aug
s 20
13
Sep
2013
Oct
201
3
Nov
201
3
Dec
201
3
Jan
2014
feb
2014
Mar
201
4
Apr
201
4
May
201
4
Jun
2014
Jul 2
014
Aug
s 20
14
Sep
2014
Oct
201
4
Nov
201
4
Dec
201
4
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
150
145
140
135
130
125
Insurance Industry External Debt Total External Debt
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
-10.00
-12.0020132012201120102009
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Components
Source: Commercial Bank Monthly Report
(in billion of rupiah)
Credit Insurance Inclusion Insurance
DPK InsurancePublished SSB InsuranceLoans Received from InsuranceCapital Loan Insurance
1.526932593
114.461103.319
6.48621
4.635
2.388767
1.621135.705124.978
6.53420
4.172
2.379694
1.685141.311130.407
6.267514
4.124
853(238)1.091
26.85127.088
(219)493
(511)
Dec-13 Jun-13 Dec-14 Yoy
Components
A. Total Assets
B. Investment Assets
Term Deposits
Shares
Bonds and MTN
Government Bonds
Mutual Funds
Others
C. Non-Investment Assets
D. Equity
ROA
ROESource: Corporate Financial Statements, processed Note: up to Q3/2014
(in trillions of rupiah)
22.01
8.71
3.26
1.33
1.40
0.05
1.84
0.83
13.30
13.20
1.77
8.04%
13.41%
27.23
8.40
2.34
1.51
1.82
0.07
1.91
0.75
18.83
17.78
1.94
30.60
9.57
2.56
1.78
1.72
0.14
1.11
2.25
21.03
19.92
1.73
7.11%
10.89%
5.64%
8.66%
23.74%
-3.55%
-28.24%
13.82%
29.48%
44.20%
3.79%
-9.51%
41.61%
34.67%
2.37%
12.36%
13.86%
9.68%
17.56%
-5.45%
96.24%
-42.01%
201.16%
11.69%
12.02%
-10.01%
2012 2013 2014* 2012 -2013 (yoy)
2013 -2014* (ytd)
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Deadline
31 December 201031 December 201231 December 2013
Rp40 billionRp70 billionRp100 billion
Rp100 billionRp150 billionRp200 billion
ReinsuranceLoss, General
and Social Insurance
Source: Corporate Financial Statements, processed
2014 QT 3Limit Min. Capital
1,148.83100.00
110.51100.00
923.17100.00
132.24100.00
211.40100.00
100.57100.00
YearABDA AHAP AMAG ASBI ASDM ASJT
Capital of Public Listed Insurance Companies (billions of rupiah)
2014 QT 3Limit Min. Capital
208.16100.00
1,266.32100.00
454.50200.00
15,360.95100.00
211.87100.00
YearsASRM LPGI MREI PNIN ASMI
Capital of Public Listed Insurance Companies (billions of rupiah)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
ASBIAHAPASMI ASDM ASJT ASRM LPGI MREI PNINAMAGABDA%
Term Deposits Shares Bonds and MTN Bonds and MTN Mutual Funds Others
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
2014*20132012
37.40
15.28
16.10
0.58
21.15
9.48
27.83
18.03
21.62
0.87
22.76
8.90
26.80
18.61
17.95
1.50
11.59
23.54
%
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Box 4.1Liquidity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
De
c-0
5
Jun
-06
De
c-0
6
Jun
-07
De
c-0
7
Jun
-08
De
c-0
8
Jun
-09
De
c-0
9
Jun
-10
De
c-1
0
Jun
-11
De
c-1
1
Jun
-12
De
c-1
2
Jun
- 13
De
c -1
3
Jun
- 14
De
c-1
4
Jun
-15
De
c-1
5
Liquid Assets Baseline Stress Case
Trillon of Rp
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 Industry
Nov-14 Pre-Shock Post-Shock
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
13 %
18 %
15 %
21 %
18 %
12 %
14 %
11 %
19 %
15 %
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
BUKU 1
Pre - Shock Post - Shock
BUKU 1 BUKU 1 BUKU 1 Industry
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
BUKU 1
Pre - Shock Post - Shock
BUKU 1 BUKU 1 BUKU 1 Industry
18 %
22 %
16 %
21 %20 %
17 %18 %
11 %
19 %
17 %
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Box 4.2Value Chain Financing to Nurture MSME Credit Expansion in the Agricultural Sector
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Sumber Risiko
Risiko
Mi gasi Risiko
Skema Pembiayaan
Changing weather and land quality
HR knowledge and quality
and quality
Financing
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
Box 4.3 Indonesia
Dec-11
3.00%
2.502.25
2.30 2.25 2.28 2.10 2.44 2.36 2.12
0.35
0.65
0.480.480.48
0.410.460.50
0.820.85 0.77
2.10
0.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Insurance Pension Fund Finance Companies Mutual Funds
%
Dec
-11
Jan-
12Fe
b-12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
112
Jul-1
12A
ug-1
2Se
p-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
113
Jul-1
13A
ug-1
3Se
p-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14Fe
b-14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
114
Jul-1
14A
gu-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
8.88
9.50
9.00
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
SB Bread Poly (SB Bread)
For credit IKNB
Assets Bank (BA)
Bank IKNB
Assets IKNB (SA)
(a)
(b)DPK from IKNB
Bank Risk
Credit Risk :
aBA
Funding Risk :
bBA
IKBN Risk
bSA
aSA
Credit Risk :
Funding Risk :
Chapter 4. Risk Assessment of the Banking and Nonbank Financial Industries
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
-
%
BUKU 1
Dec-
11Ja
n-12
Feb-
12M
ar-1
2Ap
r-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug-
12Se
p-12
Oct-1
2No
v-12
Dec-
12Ja
n-13
Feb-
13M
ar-1
3Ap
r-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug-
13Se
p-13
Oct-1
3No
v-13
Dec-
13Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug-
14Se
p-14
Oct-1
4No
v-14
29,72
9,86
8,61
6,77
BUKU 3BUKU 2 BUKU 4
Credit RiskFunding Risk
BU
KU 1
%
Dec-11
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
-
BU
KU 2
BU
KU 3
BU
KU 4
BU
KU 1
Dec-12
BU
KU 2
BU
KU 3
BU
KU 4
BU
KU 1
Dec-13
BU
KU 2
BU
KU 3
BU
KU 4
BU
KU 1
Dec-14
BU
KU 2
BU
KU 3
BU
KU 4
Data Nov-14 Stress Test Banks without NBFI credit
109
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure5
110
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
111
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
5.1 PAYMENT SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
The payment system remained sound, reliable and smooththroughout the second semester of 2014,
1
st
Chapter 5 Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
st
th
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
5.1.1 Bank Indonesia Operated Payment System
5.1.2 Industry Operated Payment System
5.2 PAYMENT SYSTEM TRANSACTION PERFORMANCE
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Source: Bank Indonesia
VALUE VOLUME Sem-II 2013 Sem-II 2014
(%) Sem-II 2013 Sem-II 2014
(%) (Trillion of Rp)
BI-RTGS 50,773.27 62,914.03 23.91% 8.88 9.10 2.42%
BI-SSSS 16,359.04 20,003.52 22.28% 0.06 0.08 33.55%
1,388.79 1,487.29 7.09% 54.02 55.69 3.08% System
Payment Insurance
2,113.35 2,455.78 16.20% 1,982.37 2,254.64 13.73%
ATM & ATM/DEBET
1,996.65 2,323.41 16.37% 1,859.50 2,126.30 14.35%
116.70 132.37 13.43% 122.87 128.34 4.45%
1.64 1.66 1.16% 72.91 115.58 58.52%
(Trillion of Rp)
MONEY
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
th
5.3 PAYMENT SYSTEM INDICATORS
5.3.1 Account Balance
3
(Trillion of Rp)2.4
270
290
310
250
230
210
190
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
TOR (LHS) TOR Trend (LHS)Opening Balance (RHS)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
BUKU 1
Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 Industry
4
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
5.4 PAYMENT SYSTEM RISKS AND MITIGATION EFFORTS5
5.4.2 Liquidity Risk6
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 Industry
Trillion of Rp
Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
0
4,000
3,000
3,500
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
BUKU 1 BUKU 2 BUKU 3 BUKU 4 Industry
Sem I 2012 Sem II 2012 Sem I 2013 Sem II 2013 Sem I 2014 Sem II 2014
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
5.4.4 Systemic Risk8 7
Ranking
2013 2014 Semester I Semester II Semester I Semester II
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
1 BUKU 4 293 BUKU 4 290 BUKU 4 288 BUKU 4 290 2 BUKU 4 292 BUKU 4 289 BUKU 4 288 BUKU 4 289 3 BUKU 4 292 BUKU 4 289 BUKU 4 288 BUKU 4 289 4 BUKU 4 292 Syariah 287 BUKU 4 286 Syariah 287 5 BUKU 3 286 BUKU 4 286 BUKU 3 284 BUKU 4 286 6 Syariah 286 BUKU 3 283 BUKU 3 280 BUKU 3 283 7 BUKU 3 283 BUKU 3 280 Syariah 280 BUKU 3 280 8 BUKU 3 282 BUKU 3 280 BUKU 3 279 BUKU 3 280 9 Syariah 282 BUKU 2 276 BUKU 3 278 BUKU 2 276
10 BUKU 3 281 BUKU 3 275 BUKU 3 276 BUKU 3 275
TotalCounterparty
TotalCounterparty
TotalCounterparty
TotalCounterparty
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
5.5 DIGITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES
2014
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Okt Nov Dec
Number of Agents
19,708
27 28
Oct
1,866 97,071
1,024,113
Nov Dec
2014Number of Electronic Money Users
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Individual
3%
97%
119
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Box 5.1
st
th
st
st th
st
th
st
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
Box 5.2 Impact of Capping, Flooring and Ticket Sizing in the Bank Indonesia – Real
th
st
Chapter 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure
th
123
Future Challenges, 6
124
125
Chapter 6 Future Challenges, Outlook and FSS
126
6.1 FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY CHALLENGES
127
2013 2014e 2015p 2013 2014e 2015p 2013 2014e 2015p 2013 2014e 2015p2.50 2.60 3.00 3.30 3.30 3.80 3.28 3.30 3.64
USAdvanced Economies
Emerging market countries in Asia
World Output
2.20 2.40 3.20 2.20 2.20 3.10 2.20 2.30 3.00J paa n 1.50 0.20 1.20 1.50 0.90 0.80 1.50 0.40 0.80Europe -0.40 0.80 1.10 -0.40 0.80 1.30 -0.43 0.85 1.30
China 7.70 7.40 7.10 7.70 7.40 7.10 7.70 7.50 7.40 7.70 7.40 7.10India 5.00 5.60 6.40 5.00 5.60 6.40ASEAN 5 5.20 4.70 5.40Indonesia 5.80 5.10 5.20 5.80 5.30 5.80 5.80 5.02 5.47Malaysia 4.70 5.70 5.30
7.20 6.20 6.40Thailand 2.90 0.50 3.50 2.90 1.60 4.50Vietnam 5.40 5.50 5.70
5.90 6.20 5.90 2.70 1.30 2.20the Middle East and North Africa 2.30 1.80 1.80 2.30 2.60 3.80Su -saharan Africa 5.20 4.50 4.70 5.10 5.10 5.80
Country/Region World Bank IMF ADB Bank Indonesia
the Philippines
6.2 OUTLOOK FOR BANK RESILIENCE AND FINANCIAL
SYSTEM STABILITY
1
6.3 POLICY DIRECTION
Policy Response in 2014
Q1
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
Q2
2012
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
17%
15%
2014
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4
Q1
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
Q2
2012
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
16%
14%
2014
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4
Q1
2.9%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
Q2
2012
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2.4%
1.9%
2014
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4
6.3.2 POLICY DIRECTION IN 2015
131
132
Box 6.1
2
2
2
11.58
(4.85)
11.89
5.03
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
Sep-
01
Jun-
02
Mar
-03
Dec
-03
Sep-
04
Jun-
05
Mar
-06
Dec
-06
Sep-
07
Jun-
08
Mar
-09
Dec
-09
Sep-
10
Jun-
11
Mar
-12
Dec
-12
Sep-
13
Jun-
14
Mar
-15
yoy (%)
KPR
Total Credit
yoy (%)
PDB (Rhs)
Dec
-14
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
NPL Total
NPL KPR
Ratio NPL (%)
De
c-14
2012 2013 2014Houses > 70m2 37.67 35.66 34.81 Apartments > 70m2 1.60 1.85 1.78 Other mortgage loans 60.74 62.50 63.41
Share of Total (%)House/Apartment Type
133
134
135
A
136
137
2
3 4
Research Report
December 2014
Abstract
138
Shock Propagation Mechanism
Systemic Event
Impact of the Systemic
Event
Trigger Idiosyncratic
Systemiatic
Tahapan Build up phase
Shock materialization
Ampli cation propagation
Origin Endogenous
Exogenous
Type Market failure
Financial institution failure
Dimension The severity of systemic event
The likelihood of the occurance
Mechanism Physical exposures
Information e ects
Type Horizontal systemic risk
Vertical systemic risk
Period Temporary
Structural
Channel The borrower balance sheet
The bank balance sheet
The liquidity
External DomesticSHOCK SOURCES
BalanceSheet
FinancialMarket
CHANNELS
Real Sector InfrastructuresMarketConfidence
Credit Risk LiquidityRisk Market Risk Operational
Risk
SYSTEMIC RISK
ExogenousEndogenous
Common/systematicIdiosyncratic
Transmission period:Short termLong term
Transmission analysis:Cross SectionTime Series
TransmissionMeasurement can be
based on:SizeInterconnectednessComplexity
Temporary Structural
Potential Impact
Risk Transmission Phase:
Build-up period Risk Materialization period
Effect on Bank Lending
141
POTENTIALCREDITRISK IN
THEFUTURE
Y world Export Exporter’sRevenue
Exporter’s Net Worth
Credit for Exporters
Domestic GDP Firm/HHIncome
Firms/ HHNet Worth
Credit for Firm/HH
Marketexpectation Capital Inflow Stock Prices Firms Net Worth
Credit for Listed Firms
Y world WorldInvestment
CapitalInflow Deposits Loanable
Fund
Real Sector Channel
Balance Sheet Channel
Market Confidence Channel
Foreign Currency
Credit Supply
POTENTIALMARKETRISK IN
THEFUTURE
POTENTIALCREDITRISK IN
THEFUTURE
IDRAppreciation
Demand for Foreign Currency Credit
142
Y world Export Current Account Balance
IDRDepreciation
Bank’s balance sheet currency mismatch MARKET RISK
Y world Export Exporter’sRevenue
Exporter’s Debt Repayment
DefaultProbability CREDIT RISK
Domestic GDP Firm/HHIncome
Firms/ HHDebt Repayment
DefaultProbability CREDIT RISK
Marketexpectation Capital Outflow
Y world WorldInvestment Capital Inflow Deposits Liquidity LIQUIDITY RISK
Balance Sheet Channel
Real Sector Channel
Financial Market Channel
Deposits Liquidity LIQUIDITY RISK
Market Confidence Channel
143
144
145
146
Financial Asset Prices
Consumption,Investment
Risk TakingBehavior
Prices (Inflation) ...useinflation transmission
POTENTIALLIQUIDITY RISK
POTENTIALMARKET RISK
MARKET RISK Interest Rate Risk
Liquidity
Potential Bubble Burst
Credit
Asset Price Bubble Potential
Liability
MARKET RISK Confidence
POTENTIALMARKET RISK
Exchange Rate Appreciation
Potential Sudden Reversal
CapitalInflow
Volume of Transactions
FinancialMarket Channel
Market ConfidenceChannel
Real SectorChannel
FeedbackLoop
Procyclical Behavior
B/S Channel
FeedbackLoop
Financed by Non-CoreLiabilities
FeedbackLoop
Wealth Effect
147
Bubble Brust Asset Price Opportunity for Financing from Bond Market Production Economic
growthMARKETRISK
Household Balance Sheet
RepaymentCapacity
MARKET RISK Confidence
LIQUIDITYRISK
CapitalOutflow
Volume ofTransactions
LiquidityPrice of Assets held by Financial Institutions
B/S Channel
Financial Market Channel
Market Confidence
Real SectorChannel
CREDITRISK
MarketLiquidity
LIQUIDITYRISK
Stock Initial Public Offering Investment Economic
growthMARKETRISK
148
PropertyPrice
PropertySector
Investment in Property
PropertySpeculation Marketing Risk Repayment
CapacityPOTENTIAL CREDIT
RISK IN THE FUTURE
ProfitCREDITRISK
LIQUIDITYRISK
POTENTIAL CREDITRISK IN THE FUTURE
CreditProperty
Speculation
Credit
MARKETRISKConfidence
POTENTIAL MARKETRISK IN THE FUTURE
PotentialBubble
Related SectorBond Prices
PotentialBubble
Property sector stock prices
PropertySector
POTENTIAL CREDITRISK IN THE FUTURE
CollateralValue
B/S Channel
Financial Market Channel
Market Confidence Channel
Real SectorChannel
FeedbackLoop
FeedbackLoop
SUPPLY SIDE
DEMAND SIDE
PropertyPrice Burst
PropertyPrice
Opportunity for Financing Sector Property Production Repayment
Capacity
HouseholdBalance Sheet
RepaymentCapacity
MARKETRISKConfidence
LIQUIDITYRISK
Related Sector Bond Prices
Property SectorStock Prices
Property Sector Perfomance
CREDIT RISK B/S
Channel
Financial Market Channel
MarketConfidence
Real Sector Channel
Property Sector Opportunityfor Financing
CREDITRISK
MacroDistress
MicroFactors
Problems in particular sector in economy
Problems in Non Bank Financial Institutions or
Parents Company
Mismanagement
Financial innovation
OperationalProcess
BusinessProcess
Mismatch
Misalocation
Currency
Maturity
HighlyConcentrated CREDIT RISK
LIQUIDITY RISK
MARKET RISK
Interconnectedness
OPERATIONALRISK
151
152
153
1
155
countries3
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00
-10,00
-20,00
-30,00
-40,00
Bank Credit/GDP gap
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
L H
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
0,50
-
1,00
1992
Q119
93Q1
1994
Q119
95Q1
1996
Q119
97Q1
1998
Q119
99Q1
2000
Q120
01Q1
2002
Q120
03Q1
2004
Q120
05Q1
2006
Q120
07Q1
2008
Q120
09Q1
2010
Q120
11Q1
2012
Q120
13Q1
2014
Q1
120,00
100,00
80,00
60,00
40,00
20,00
0,00
-20,00
-40,00
-60,00
-80,00
Bank Credit/GDP gap
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
L H
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
0,50
-
1,0019
92Q1
1993
Q119
94Q1
1995
Q119
96Q1
1997
Q119
98Q1
1999
Q120
00Q1
2001
Q120
02Q1
2003
Q120
04Q1
2005
Q120
06Q1
2007
Q120
08Q1
2009
Q120
10Q1
2011
Q120
12Q1
2013
Q120
14Q1
5
30,00
-30,00
-40,00
-50,00
20,00
-20,00
10,00
-10,00
0,00
1,6K
Bank Credit - 1 sided HP Filter
25K 125K 400K
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
100,00
-100,00
50,00
-50,00
0,00
1,6K
Broad Credit - 1 sided HP Filter
25K 125K 400K
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
Lambda Threshold NSR Predicted1600 0,50 63% 70%
25000 3,50 25% 74%125000 3,50 28% 67%400000 3,00 32% 67%
1600 2,50 21% 74%25000 0,50 60% 67%125000 - - -400000 - - -
Bank Credit Gap
Broad Credit Gap
NPL_YOY NPL_(%) IHPR_YOY GDPR_YOY IHSG_YOY DPK_YOY CAR ROANC_GDP25K 0,49 -0,68 -0,54 0,69 0,25 0,35 -0,32 0,83BC_GDP16K 0,28 -0,34 -0,27 0,24 0,27 -0,21 0,14 0,60NC_YOY 0,14 -0,50 -0,29 0,70 -0,26 0,32 -0,39 0,44BC_YOY 0,19 -0,76 -0,19 0,80 -0,24 0,66 -0,69 0,62NPL_YOY -0,09 0,25 -0,02 0,37 -0,14 0,29NPL_(%) 0,28 -0,74 -0,03 -0,49 0,65 -0,84
Financial Imbalance IndicatorMain Indicators
dependent (y) independent (x)
NPL (%) Bank Credit Gap 15 -0,31 0,05 -5,81 0,00 0,67 0,66 1,22 68,13 0,00 3,29GDP Real (yoy) Bank Credit Gap 1 0,00 0,00 9,27 0,00 0,51 0,50 0,01 50,58 0,00 -7,31
ROA (%) Bank Credit Gap 1 0,07 0,01 7,31 0,00 0,60 0,59 0,27 70,59 0,00 0,26GDP Real (yoy) Bank Credit (yoy) 1 0,07 0,02 3,91 0,00 0,38 0,36 0,01 29,08 0,00 -7,06GDP Real (yoy) NPL (%) 1 0,00 0,00 -7,07 0,00 0,58 0,57 0,01 67,20 0,00 -7,46
CAR (%) NPL (%) 4 0,54 0,05 10,21 0,00 0,63 0,62 1,34 76,05 0,00 3,47ROA (%) NPL (%) 3 -0,08 0,01 -6,66 0,00 0,54 0,53 0,23 53,21 0,00 -0,04NPL (%) Broad Credit (yoy) 1 -18,25 2,72 -6,71 0,00 0,53 0,52 2,01 54,05 0,00 4,27
GDP Real (yoy) Broad Credit (yoy) 1 0,05 0,01 5,87 0,00 0,47 0,46 0,01 43,08 0,00 -7,23Deposits (yoy) Broad Credit (yoy) 1 0,26 0,05 5,13 0,00 0,42 0,41 0,04 34,51 0,00 -3,80
CAR (%) Broad Credit (yoy) 1 -14,13 1,62 -8,70 0,00 0,56 0,55 1,47 60,83 0,00 3,64ROA (%) Broad Credit (yoy) 1 2,31 0,47 4,89 0,00 0,40 0,39 0,33 32,57 0,00 0,65
AICProb (t) R-sqradj. R-
sqrSE Reg F-stat Prob (F)T-stat
Variableslag Coef.
Std. error
Fin_imbalance_indicator(t)=f(main_indicator(-t)),
where t=1, 2, 3…
= + 1. gap kredit + 2.
= 0, gap kredit <1, gap kredit = × gap kredit
0,85
0,75
0,65
0,55
0,5
0,45
0,40 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6 6,5 7 7,5 8 8,5 9
Adj. R’2
threshold
0,8
0,7
0,6
Adjusted Threshold
30,00
-30,00
-40,00
20,00
-20,00
10,00
-10,00
-
Bank Credit Gap (25K) Threshold
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
Threshold
n years before
credit gap mean
Y-3 2,70Y-2 4,67Y-1 6,05
*) Y-1 = one year before cri s i s
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bank Credit Gap (25K) H L1=3 L2=4 L3=5
1993
q1
1993
q2
1993
q3
1993
q4
1994
q1
1994
q2
1994
q3
1994
q4
1995
q1
1995
q2
1995
q3
1995
q4
1996
q1
1996
q2
1996
q3
1996
q4
1997
q1
1997
q2
1997
q3
10
6
8
4
2
-2
0
Bank Credit Gap (25K) H L1=3 L2=4 L3=5
2003
q1
2003
q320
04q1
2004
q320
05q1
2005
q320
06q1
2006
q320
07q1
2007
q3
2008
q1
2008
q320
09q1
2009
q320
10q1
2010
q320
11q1
2011
q3
2012
q1
2012
q320
13q1
2013
q3
2014
q3
Lag IHPR CPI ROA
-0,192112 0,552298 -0,469166
(-1,253464) (4,242126) (-3,401761)-0,10925 0,539345 -0,353659
(-0,703751) (4,101124) (-2,420977)-0,00102 0,514638 -0,30994
(-0,00653) (3,843317) (-2,087375)0,135876 0,459601 -0,282212
(0,878174) (3,313587) (-1,883599)0,329119 0,389535 -0,246078
(2,231722) (2,708155) (-1,625655)0,430384 0,308556 -0,258284
(3,053026) (2,077068) (-1,711911)0,469605 0,21917 -0,324656
(3,405843) (1,438344) (-2,197865)0,51521 0,163294 -0,370121
(3,849136) (1,059816) (-2,5511)
7
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
DIRECTOR
COORDINATOR AND EDITOR
ANALYSTS
OTHER DEPARTMENT CONTRIBUTION ON SELECTED ANALYSIS
PRODUCTION AND DISSEMINATION TEAM
Financial Stability ReviewNo.24, March 2015