Download - Choice modelling in lower income countries
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How to predictchoice of lowerincome consumers
Robert Dossin Mike Mabey
SKIM Europe SKIM USA
A mobile study about painkillers choices
in Indonesia, Brazil & South Africa
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Lower & Middle classIn Emerging markets
70.000.000each year BRIC+ 7 trillion
2015 20 trillion
2025
Source: McKinsey & Company ‘The great rebalancing, 2010’
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Developing research methods
Source: GRIT report 2015 – Greenbook/methods
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More demanding - faster
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Mobile Connects the Unconnected
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PC ownership of mobileusers
PC at Home
37%No PC at Home
63%
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Mobile surveys in most emerging markets are for 16-44
5%
21%24% 23%
17%
10%
16 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
On Device Sample Census
Source: n=2060 On Device Profiler 2015
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Access to lower social class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Female Male 18-34 35-44 45+ LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM 8-10
AMPS 2014 (Census) On Device Sample
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Mobile beats face to face alternatives
0.89
0.83
0.94
0.91
0.76
0.8
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
Malaysia India
Correlation of tracking data with actual
market share data 1 = Perfect Correlation
Face to Face
Mobile
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Robust sample in days n=1260
n = 600
~ 60% 18-25 y/o
80% earn 3000 R or less
n = 38 feature phones
n = 380
~ 50% 18-25 y/o
46% earn Rp 10.000 or less
n = 127 feature phones
n = 280
44% 18 – 25 y/o
48% R. 8999 or less
n = 30 feature phones
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So what did we do?Painkillers Study
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Predict choice using trade offsOutput are preferences per consumer to be used for predictions
Brand Units per pack Dosage (in mg) Price (local R) Format
Top 3 (combination
large manufacturer &
local)
- Tylenol
- Novalgine
- Anador
3 options:
- 24
tablets/capsules
- 20
- 16
3 dosages:
- 200 mg
- 300 mg
- 500 mg
3 different prices:
- 7.19
- 10.99
- 12.49
2 different formats:
- Tablets
- Capsules
Painkiller ChoiceWhat is the most appealing attribute for consumers?
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13 taps on a mobile phone
Choice Tasks
Consumers have completed 7 different
choice tasks, each task varying the
attributes of the product (brand, units,
dosage, price & format)
In each task, respondents chose one
concept that they preferred most
For this study, there were 2 or 3 concepts
shown on screen at a time
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Setup Brazil
Additional insights
Understand why concepts are motivating
and other insights
Open ended question:
‘For what purpose consumers
normally buy painkillers?’
Additional options
Select questions for specific sizes or flavors
Additional price analysis
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Key findings
Brand is the most importantattribute
7%
13%
15%
19%
47%
Type
Price
Dosage
Pieces
Brand
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Brand preference
17%
23%
60%
Novalgina
Anador
Tylenol
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Brazilians like it big
13%
25%
62%
10pieces
20pieces
30pieces
19%
26%
56%
100mg
300mg
500mg
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Latent Class analytics
• 45% prefer Novalgina (SA),
but could switch to Tylenol as
they give more importance to
other attributes such as
• high dosage and high number
of pieces.
• They are not price sensitive
• Extremely loyal to the Tylenol
brand
• Prefer capsules over tablets
• Motivated by a high number of
pills and mid dosage
• Tylenol lovers are price sensitive
• Very loyal to the Anador brand
• Tablets are preferred over
capsules
• Motivated by a midsize quantity
and high dosage
• Anador lovers are very price
sensitive
Novalgina likers 45% Tylenol lovers 36% Anador price buyers
19%
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The most common usesof painkillers
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Country nuances
Tablets preferred
Pricesensitive
Package & dosage important drivers
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Predictionpower
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Prediction
In all countries our models predict significant
better compared to random chance (33%)!
65.8% 70.3% 76.8%
33%
x 2 !
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Art or Science