Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership
February 23, 2016
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Traffic Update, 2015–2020 Cisco Knowledge Network (CKN)
Dr. Robert Pepper – VP, Global Technology Policy
Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst
Usha Andra – Senior Analyst Taru Khurana – Senior Analyst
2 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Speed
Data
Global Forecast
Data
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
VNI Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
3 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
2015 2020
4.8 Billion
5.5 Billion
More Mobile Users
More Mobile Connections
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Video
7.9 Billion
11.6 Billion
2.0 Mbps 6.5 Mbps
55% of Traffic
75% of Traffic
Mobile Momentum Metrics
4 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
By 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of
367 exabytes per year, up from 44 exabytes in 2015
(8-fold growth).
367X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
81 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)
7 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8-Fold from 2015─2020
Exabytes per Month
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
21.7 EB
3.7 EB
14.9 EB 9.9 EB
6.2 EB
30.6 EB
6 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 6-Fold from 2015─2020
Exabytes per Month
42% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0.5 EB 0.8 EB
1.1 EB 1.5 EB
2.1 EB
2.9 EB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Accuracy VNI Projections for 2015 within ±10% of Actual Traffic Growth
66% 74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2015 Traffic Growth
Average Projected Value (Previous 5 Reports)
Estimated Growth (Current Report)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecasts, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
8 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (71%) from 2015–2020 APAC will Generate 45% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC)
Exabytes per Month 11%
45%
9%
14% 7%
14%
9 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
31% 39%
46% 46% 46% 47%
56% 56% 56% 56% 57% 57% 58% 59%
64% 67% 68%
79% 81%
86% 89%
111% 129%
Sweden Korea Spain
Canada Australia
Japan France Russia
Germany US
Italy UK
Mexico South Africa
Brazil New Zealand
Chile Argentina
Poland Saudi Arabia
India China
Indonesia
Cisco VNI Mobile Year in Review—
2015 Strong Growth
Worldwide
10 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Users From 65% (4.8B) in 2015 to 70% (5.5B) of Global Population by 2020 Global Mobile Users Growing 2X Faster than Global Population
North America 2015: 302 Million 2020: 322 Million
CAGR 1.3%
Latin America 2015: 477 Million 2020: 577 Million
CAGR 1.6%
Western Europe 2015: 368 Million 2020: 378 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Middle East & Africa 2015: 709 Million 2020: 879 Million
CAGR 4.4%
Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 352 Million 2020: 360 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Asia Pacific 2015: 2,597 Million 2020: 3008 Million
CAGR 3.0%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
11 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.9 Billion in 2015 to 11.6 Billion by 2020 at 8% CAGR
North America 2015: 486 Million
2020: 1,036 Million CAGR 16.4%
Latin America 2015: 770 Million
2020: 1,018 Million CAGR 5.7%
Western Europe 2015: 627 Million
2020: 1,129 Million CAGR 12.5%
Middle East & Africa 2015: 1,295 Million 2020: 1,845 Million
CAGR 7.3%
Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 642 Million 2020: 910 Million
CAGR 7.2%
Asia Pacific 2015: 4,031 Million 2020: 5,707 Million
CAGR 7.2%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
12 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will More Than Triple from 2.0 Mbps (2015) to 6.5 Mbps (2020)
North America
2.6-fold Growth 5.9 to 15.3 Mbps
Latin America
3.3-fold Growth 1.5 to 4.9 Mbps
Western Europe
3.5-fold Growth 4.1 to 14.1 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
6.3-fold Growth 0.8 to 4.8 Mbps
Central & Eastern Europe
4.7-fold Growth 2.3 to 10.6 Mbps
Asia Pacific
3.6-fold Growth 2.4 to 8.6 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
13 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2020, Video Will Drive 75% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2015
North America
77% of traffic by 2020 49% CAGR
Latin America
75% of traffic by 2020 60% CAGR
Western Europe
76% of traffic by 2020 54% CAGR
Middle East & Africa
72% of traffic by 2020 87% CAGR
Central & Eastern Europe
75% of traffic by 2020 62% CAGR
Asia Pacific
75% of traffic by 2020 64% CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
14 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2015–2020 Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cell Network Advances ─ 2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth
5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
15 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
• Total devices and connections growth
• Traffic by device category • Smarter devices growth • Smart devices traffic • IPv6 Analysis
16 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2020, Smartphones / Phablets Attain Largest Share Reaching Nearly 50%
8% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Billions of Devices
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 device share
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (32%,40%) Phablets (6%,8%) M2M (8%,26%) Nonsmartphones (50%,21%) Tablets (2%,3%) PCs (2%,2%) Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.1%)
17 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Traffic Growth by Device Type Globally, Smartphones / Phablets Will Continue to Dominate Mobile Traffic, but M2M Will Gain Share by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 traffic share
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (inc. Phablets) (76%,81%) M2M (3%,7%) Nonsmartphones (2%,1%) Tablets (9%,8%) PCs (9%,3%) Other Portable Devices (0.03%,0.00%) Exabytes
per Month
Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
• Total devices and connections growth
• Traffic by device category • Smarter devices growth • Smart devices traffic • Ipv6 analysis
Globally, in 2015, a smart device generated 14 times more traffic
than a nonsmart device.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
* Smart devices are those having advanced multimedia/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity
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Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2020, 66% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable
Number of Devices
(B)
23% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.7B
7.6B
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Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2020, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 54% of Mobile Data Traffic
Exabytes per Month
102% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
16.6
0.5
By 2020, IPv6 M2M modules will be 1.5 billion a 27% increase during the forecast period, 62% CAGR.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Back to Trends Menu
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Trend 2 Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives) • Total Connections by
Network Type • Network Connectivity for M2M • Traffic by Network
Connectivity • 5G Perspectives
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Global Connections by Network Type By 2017, 3G Surpasses 2G Connections By 2020, 4G Connectivity Surpasses All Other Connection Types
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Billions of Devices or
Connections
40.5% 38.7%
13.5% 7.4%
52%
34%
14%
0.3%
*Includes M2M
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Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2020
Global
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
2G 13%
3%
9%
15%
14%
8%
22%
Latin America
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
3G 39%
14%
21%
52%
37%
42%
60%
4G 40%
59%
53%
32%
43%
42%
17%
LPWA 7%
24%
16%
1%
6%
8%
1%
Includes M2M
25 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global M2M Connections by Network Type By 2020, 4G and LPWA Lead M2M Connections
Back to Trends Menu
Billions of Devices or
Connections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA 32%
12%
28% 26%
42% 40% 10% 4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Already Carries Largest Share of Traffic – 47% By 2020, 4G Will Support 72% of Mobile Traffic
Back to Trends Menu
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G
72%
27% <1%
Exabytes per Month
47% 10%
43%
27 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Trend 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables • M2M Connections growth • M2M by vertical • M2M Device usage—
traffic examples • Wearables analysis
28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile M2M Connections By Vertical By 2020, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth
38% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other* (58.1% CAGR) Energy (44.1% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (43.2% CAGR) Retail (15.4% CAGR) Connected Cities (42.3% CAGR) Connected Health (52% CAGR) Connected Car (32% CAGR) Utilities (33.8% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (46.6% CAGR) Connected Home (41% CAGR)
*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services
29 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 6-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
44% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of Connected Wearables
Back to Trends Menu
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
97 M
489 M 3.3%
601 M
6.9%
% with Embedded
Cellular Connectivity
261 M
167 M
373 M
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Regional Connected Wearable Devices Asia Pacific Will Have the Largest Share by 2020
44% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Millions of M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices share
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Western Europe (17%,21%) North America (40%,30%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (2%,4%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,8%) Asia Pacific (31%,32%)
489 M
97 M
601 M
167 M
261 M
373 M
31 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Trend 4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth • Total mobile vs. Wi-Fi vs.
fixed traffic growth • Mobile offload • Growth of Wi-Fi hotspots • Day in connected life/
day-parting • VoWiFi vs. other types of
mobile voice
32 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
23% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Data (59% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (22% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)
55%
38% 3%
4% 37%
34%
13% 16%
53% is Wi-Fi
29% from Mobile Devices
Exabytes per Month
33 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 55% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2020 51% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2015
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Exabytes per Month
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
45%
55%
34 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2020 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2G 3G 4G
Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic Mobile and
Offload Traffic from
Mobile-Connected
Devices 58%
48% 36%
64% 52% 42%
Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 71% by 2020. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones/ phablets will be 56% by 2020.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Back to Trends Menu
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
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Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability Existing Growth Future
• Pay-as-you-go • Free access promoting other
services (Retail free Wi-Fi) • Managed services (venues
and outdoor) • Cellular offload (user
promoted) • Added value for broadband
subscription • Advertising and sponsorship
• Cellular offload (carrier driven)
• Community Wi-Fi/ homespots
• Carrier-grade VoWiFi • TV everywhere • Large events • Big data analytics • Public transportation Wi-Fi
• Wi-Fi Capacity trading • Transaction platform • Internet of things • Context awareness • HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile • Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)
Back to Trends Menu
Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots
2015 2020 64.2M 432.5M
Total Incremental Hotspots ?
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Trend 5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns • Mobile traffic by applications • Average vs. busy hour • Average per mobile user • Average per connection • Average for different device
38 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video Three-fourths of Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR 2015–2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015 and 2020 mobile data traffic shares
Exabytes per Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,6%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,17%)
Mobile Video (55%,75%)
39 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Solitaire by Spotify Music
Waze Social GPS Dialer
Pinterest Words With Friends
Clash of Clans Sudoku Free
Twitter Tumblr
Snapchat Candy Crush Soda Candy Crush Saga
Google Maps Gmail
WhatsApp Google
Facebook Messenger Amazon Kindle
Instagram Netflix Safari
YouTube Chrome
Source: Cisco, Verto Analytics
Top Apps on Tablet and
Smartphone by Time Spend—
2015
40 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher than Average Hour in 2015, 88% in 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average-Hour Traffic Busy-Hour Traffic
Tbps
41 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)
2015 2020 GLOBAL Global MB per Month
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Latin America
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
746
1,792 1,134
588 568
1,529
409
5,216
8,887 6,528
4,237 3,785
11,835
4,790
Asia-Pacific
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
42 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Trend 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements • Mobile speeds • Wi-Fi Speeds • Mobile speed
by device • Mobile speed
by network
43 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Mobile Network Speeds Increase 3.2X by 2020 Average Cell Connection Speed (2.0 Mbps in 2015) Will Grow at a 26% CAGR—Reaching 6.5 Mbps by 2020
2015 2020 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
2.0
5.9 4.0
1.5 2.4
2.3
0.8
6.5
15.3 14.1
4.9 8.6
10.6
4.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
44 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4G 3G All Network Types 2G
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 3.3X Higher than Average by 2020 Average Speeds will Surpass 3-3.5G Speeds by 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Mbps
Back to Trends Menu
15.3 Mbps
2.6 Mbps 2.0 Mbps
21.5 Mbps
116 Kbps
6.5 Mbps
85 Kbps 4.8 Mbps
45 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 2.5x Higher than Average by 2020 Smartphone Speeds are 1.9x Higher than Average by 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Mbps
Back to Trends Menu
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tablets Smartphones
11.6 Mbps
7.5 Mbps
2.0 Mbps
16.2 Mbps
12.5 Mbps
6.5 Mbps
46 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2015-2020
2015 2020 Global Mbps
BY REGION North America Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
12.5
17.4 13.9
5.9 11.4
13.4
4.4
19.9
31.9 22.4
9.1 18.3
24.0
6.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
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Forecast Implications
48 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Key Takeaways
2015 Tipping Point for 4G—Accelerating/Dominating
Wi-Fi Essential: Tech and connection of choice
Tale of Two Networks: Video drives demand + M2M drives devices = increased complexity
March to 5G has begun: Evolution in tech, biz models,
architecture to meet heterogeneous requirements
49 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
5G Requirements (Still Evolving) Greater throughput—50+ Mbps
Ultra-high reliability
Ultra-low latency
Ultra density
Broadband MTC
Low-cost/long-range/low-power MTC
Diverse devices; user interactions
Various access technologies
High user mobility
Power efficient
Broadcast-like services
Ensure security, trust identify, privacy
Source: NGMN https://www.ngmn.org/fileadmin/ngmn/content/downloads/Technical/2015/NGMN_5G_White_Paper_V1_0.pdf
50 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
Conclusion
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Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2015–2020 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
Back to Trends Menu
www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]
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Generations of Mobile Technology— A Snapshot
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
2G
1980–99
14–64 Kbps
Digital voice, SMS, MMS
1G
1970–84
2 Kbps
Analog voice
Generation
Deployment
Bandwidth
Service
3G
1990–2002
2 Mbps
Integrated high quality audio, video
and data
4G
2000–10
200 Mbps
Dynamic information
access, variable devices
5G
2020+
1 Gbps+
Dynamic information
access with AI capabilities–IoE,
Wearable devices