Download - Claretiano - Matando a Média
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“Matando a Média”Fabio Akita
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a média pensa em Gauss
os inovadores pensam em Pareto
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Random Networks(Erdös & Rényi)
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Small Worlds(Watts & Strogatz)
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Scale-Free Networks(Barabási & Alfred)
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• Self-similar (fractal)
• hubs muito conectados
• links fracos entre clusters
• Resistente a falhas aleatórias
• Vulnerável a ataques coordenados
• Preferencial Attachment
• Power Law Distribution
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Preferential Attachment
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“hubs”
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Power Law Distribution
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All-Time Worldwide Box office
1 Titanic (1997) 1,835,300,000
2 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) 1,129,219,252
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) 1,060,332,628
4 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 968,657,891
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) 958,404,152
6 The Dark Knight (2008) 949,197,658
7 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) 937,000,866
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• Interdependência
• Invariância de escala
• sem média estável
• variância infinita
• “Fat-Tail”
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“The Long Tail”
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6 graus de separação
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Uma rede scale-freeé RÁPIDA!
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Uma rede scale-freeé DINÂMICA!
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mudando de assunto ...
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“Jack of all Trades”
“Master of None”
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sr. Leonardo
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“Jack of all Trades”
“Master of All”
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A Média
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Mandelbrot
• Teoria padrão: Crise Russa de 1998
• 1/20 milhões
• 100 mil anos sem uma crise
• 3 declínios no mesmo mês: 1/5 bilhões!
• A economia ainda aceita pseudo-ciência
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Regra 80/20(Pareto)
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Gauss vs Pareto
• Independência = Gauss
• Interdependência = Pareto
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Mundo de Gauss
• Existe média estável
• Existe desvio padrão constante
• Os extremos são ignoráveis
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Mundo de Pareto
• “80% da riqueza está com 20% das pessoas”
• Não existe média estável
• Não existe desvio padrão constante
• “Rico fica mais Rico”
• “Ganhador leva Tudo”
• Os extremos são importantes !
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“We're stuck in a hit-driven mindset — we think that if
something isn't a hit, it won't make money and so won't
return the cost of its production.
We assume, in other words, that only hits deserve to exist.”
Vann-Adibé, CEO Ecast
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medíocreme.dí.o.creadj (lat mediocre) 1 Médio ou mediano. 2 Meão. 3 Que está entre bom e mau. 4 Que está entre pequeno e grande. 5 Ordinário, sofrível, vulgar. sm 1 Aquele que tem pouco talento, pouco espírito, pouco merecimento. 2 Aquilo que tem pouco valor.
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“Knowledge Worker”
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• Programadores não são operários
• Profissionais do Conhecimento
• O mundo é decidido nos extremos
• Não existe média
• O futuro não é previsível
Resumindo ...
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O problema da imitação: Caos
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O futuro é imprevisível
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Prepare-se para ele agora!
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Lembre-se: não existe “média”
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“Think different”