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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2015
January 13, 2015
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Class Information and News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site – http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
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Required Reading and Response
• Assignment on CTools Site – Dilling and Lemos: Usable Science
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Resources and Recommended Reading
• Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html
– And in particular two subsections • Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm • Simple climate models
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm – Note specific assignment on Ctools site
• Rood .mp4 Introductory Lecture – https://umich.box.com/s/4vzq7txa60ax7gr19k4d
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Outline: Class 2, Winter 2015
• A (very) Little History and the Conclusion • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?”
– The scientific method applied to climate • Relation to Energy, Population,
Consumption • Response Framework
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Some history (see Weart, AIP)
• The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier (1768-1830). (I will call this the greenhouse effect.)
• Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall (1820-1893)
• Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide
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Starting point: Scientific foundation (1)
• The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass.
• The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.
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Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty – The average global temperature of the
Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface.
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Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty – The average global temperature of the Earth’s
surface will continue to rise because of the continued addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface.
– Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. – Sea level will rise. – The weather will change.
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Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
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Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Data and more information
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
The Economist on 400 ppm
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The yearly cycle of CO2
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Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)
IPCC 2001
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Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
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Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
1951-1980 base period
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IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature
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IPCC 2007: The last
~100 years
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Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)
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IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years
Note: From one IPCC assessment to the next, there is no fundamental change in sign and range.
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That’s a glimpse into climate change
• We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing.
• I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface.
• I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future.
• Showed sea level and snow melt.
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What parameters/events do we care about?
• Temperature • Water
– Precipitation – Evaporation – Humidity
• Air Composition – Air quality – Aerosols – Carbon dioxide
• Winds • Clouds / Sunlight
• Droughts • Floods
• Extreme Weather
The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate
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What is (and is not) “science?”
• The Scientific Method
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Scientific investigation of climate change
• What is scientific investigation? – Scientific method
• How do we get started?
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What is science, the scientific method? • Elements of the scientific method
– Observations of some phenomenon – Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of
suppositions, followed by hypotheses – In principle, hypotheses are testable:
• Experiments: cause and effect • Prediction instead of experiments?
– Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis.
• Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? – Development of tests, experiments that challenge the
hypotheses and predictions. • Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is
constructed.
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What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation
– The results of scientific investigation are the generation of • Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints • Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge?
– Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts • Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that
we feel certain. • Theories develop out of tested hypotheses.
– Theory is NOT conjecture – Theory is subject to change – There is constant challenge and testing
– Science requires validation • Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can
repeat tests and develop new tests.
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What is science, the scientific method?
• Science is a process of investigation – Requires transparency so that independent
investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.
– Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?”
– Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?
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Science, Scientific Method
• Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results – But the fact that it is independently testable,
ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.
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Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS THEORY
PREDICTION
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Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS PROCESSES
MODELING
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Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS THEORY
EXPERIMENT
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Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Knowledge Generation Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving Unification Integration
(perhaps not unique)
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What is science, the scientific method? • We always have these attributes in the scientific
method – Observations of some phenomenon / phenomena – Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look
like? • How do we affect “control?” • What is “control?” • We are seeking cause and effect.
– Validation, can I predict the behavior? – Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?
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Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption
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Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas. The vast majority of or energy comes from burning fossil fuels.
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Climate Change Relationships
• Consumption // Population // Energy
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
SO
CIE
TAL
SU
CC
ES
S
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Societal Success and Energy
Societal Success
Consumption
High High
High Low
Low Low
Low High
This is what we know.
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Energy and Economic Success
The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)
What countries are missing from this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
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Response Framework
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Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
It’s
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/ or
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Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Greenhouse effect, importance of water and carbon dioxide to Earth’s climate known more than 200 years
• Climate Change / Global Warming as a societal issue is primarily motivated by release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Warming and consequences have been observed and more is on the way.
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Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Scientific investigation is observation based, and relies on evaluation of testable hypotheses. – Generates knowledge and associated
uncertainty
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Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Climate change / global warming follows from use of fossil fuels as energy and the consumption of energy to improve standard of living – Historically, relatively small portion of population – Future, larger portion of population seeking
improved standard of living • The framework for responding to global
warming is – Mitigation: don’t do the things that cause warming – Adaptation: respond to warming
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Thanks
• All of this will be discussed in more detail during the course.