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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Ideas and Issues for Planners, Engineers and Policy Makers
Scott Shuford, AICPOnslow County
Ask the Climate Question
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PLANNING FOR A NEW ENERGY AND CLIMATE FUTURE PAS Report – Collaborative effort
Funding support from Surdna & George Gund Foundations, ENRE Division & NOAA
Help planners incorporate energy and climate change considerations into their work
Assist communities and regions to– Reduce energy use & GHG emissions
– Adapt to a changing climate
– Transition to renewable energy
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PLANNING FOR A NEW ENERGY AND CLIMATE FUTURE
More information about the report and about energy and climate change can be found at:
www.planning.org/research/energy/
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THANKS
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AM I AT THE RIGHT CONFERENCE?
Mitigation• Copenhagen
• Cap-and-Trade
• VMT
• CAFE standards
• 83% Below 2000 Levels
• Sequestration
Adaptation• Sea-Level Rise
• Strong Storms
• Wildfires
• Flooding
• Drought
• Heat Waves
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AM I AT THE RIGHT CONFERENCE?
Mitigation
• Copenhagen
• Cap-and-Trade
• VMT
• CAFE standards
• 83% Below 2000 Levels
• Sequestration
Adaptation
• Sea-Level Rise
• Strong Storms
• Wildfires
• Flooding
• Drought
• Heat Waves
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ADAPTATION
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STRATEGIC POINTS OF INTERVENTION
• Long-Range Community Visioning and Goal Setting
• Plan Making
• Standards, Policies, and Incentives
• Development Work
• Public Investment
• Education and Outreach
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PLAN-MAKING
www.planning.org/research/energy/
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DEVELOPMENT WORK
http://www.greensburggreentown.org/
www.planning.org/research/energy/
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DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
• Migration
• Concentrating development in low-risk areas
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DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
Migration
Photo by Dave Saville, FEMA News Photo
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DEVELOPMENT PATTERNSMigration
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DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
Concentrating development in low-risk areas
NCGS image
NOAA image
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INFRASTRUCTURE
• Infrastructure design
• Maintenance
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The Confederation Bridge
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure Design
www.confederationbridge.com/en/
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INFRASTRUCTURE
Coastal Resources Commission
– 1.25’ to 4.5’ SLR
– 40” best estimate 19” SLRSource: Federal DOT
Infrastructure Maintenance
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• Agriculture and forestry
• Insurance
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Agriculture
•Crop varieties
• Erosion
• Pests
•Competition for water
• Wildfires
• Food preferences
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
NCDCR image
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Insurance
• Historical data used to assign risk and determine rates will become increasingly less useful
• Regulators may hold insurance prices below actuarial levels to avoid damage to markets
• Liability concerns
NOAA file photo
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SITES AND BUILDINGS
• Landscaping and “green infrastructure”
• Building design
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SITES AND BUILDINGS
GreenInfrastructure
NCSU image
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SITES AND BUILDINGS
BuildingDesign
www.hopeplantation.org/
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NATURAL RESOURCES
• Water management
• Sea-level rise
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NATURAL RESOURCES
Water management
NASA image
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences image
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NATURAL RESOURCESWater management
RENCI images
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NATURAL RESOURCES
Alligator River – Current Sea Level
Alligator River – 2 feet of Sea Level Rise
The Nature Conservancy
Sea-level rise
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
Decision Makers Face Many Challenges
– Diversity of stakeholder values
– Decisions are based on a combination of factorsand not a single driver
– Information is often not at the proper scale
– Who is a trusted source of information?
– Uncertainty with data
– Who is empowered to make the decisions?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
Addressing the Challenges Will Require:
– Predict the range of outcomes resulting from different actions - scenarios
– Identify “win-win” and “no regrets” solutions
– Use data scaled to the level of decision making
– Tie data to community values through decision support tools
– Communicate effectively across all sectors –“interdisciplinarity”
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
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HOW TO MANAGE ADAPTATION?
Image courtesy of Mark Combs