Download - Climate Change Effects on Forest
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FORESTS Challenges & Opportunities
www.forestadaptation.org Maria Janowiak, [email protected]
Climate Change Impacts 1) Warmer temperatures 2) Increased carbon dioxide 3) Changes in habitat suitability 4) Extreme events 5) Interactions
Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis In progress for 2016
Synthesize findings of
state/regional assessments and scientific literature • Observed climate change • Anticipated future changes • Effects on forests
Incorporate new results from the Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, and LANDIS models
Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis Combine scientific literature, models, and expert knowledge to describe forest ecosystem vulnerabilities
Forest Vulnerability
& Confidence
Potential Forest
Change •Future climate •Published research •Model results
Local Info
•Current forest conditions
•Climate trends
Expert Knowledge &
Experience (via workshop)
Longer Growing Season Opportunity: Increased ecosystem productivity
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Warm temperatures = Greatest growth
Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Variation based on moisture availability
Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Variation based on moisture availability
Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress
Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
• Increased photosynthesis • Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity*
• Increased photosynthesis • Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
• Limited sink strength • Interactions with nitrogen • Ozone damage • Other reductions in productivity
(e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management
Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? • 134 Trees • 147 Birds
Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect
White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect
White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect
Red Spruce: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect
Black Oak: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Changes in Habitat Suitability
= species X suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain
Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future
Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
Mature and established trees should fare better
Immense lags to occupy habitats
Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
Extreme Events Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
Heavy precipitation Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes “Events” are not well
modeled VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept.
Interactions
Fire may increase: Warmer/drier summers Increased stress or mortality
from less suitable conditions Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
Fire may not change: Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more
mesic species Spatial patterns of land use
and fragmentation Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Interactions
Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
Pests migrating northward
Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures
Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F
Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases
Interactions
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success
Direct: Expanded ranges under warmer conditions Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to
take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases
Second to last slide... Generally Challenges Reduced growth:
moisture stress Decline of
northern/boreal species Disturbance from
extreme events Wildfire potential Forests pests & disease Invasive species
Generally Opportunities Increased productivity:
longer growing season Increased productivity:
more CO2
Increased habitat for some species
What would you add?