Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines
Climate Information Applicationsfor Drought Mitigation
In Asia Pacific region- ADPC Experiences
Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines
Structure of the presentation
Drought in Asia and Pacific region – Over view
ADPC experience in managing Droughts in Asia –Connecting Science and Society
Relevance of ADPC Experience for Drought management in India
A way forward
Number of Occurrence of Drought/Famine Disasters by Country (1974 – 2003)
Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation
0- 56 - 10>10
Drought Affected Population 1975 to 1999
World Drought Figures
19%
4%
74%
1%
1%
1%
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
European Union
Oceania
El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
Pal
ay P
rod
uct
ion
( x
100
0 M
T)
El Nino
El NinoEl Nino El Nino
Climate Risk Management
El Niño impact on water resources, Philippines
Angat Reservoir normal water level
Angat Reservoir 1998 water level
Climate Risk Management
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Imp
or
(juta
ton
)
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
Pro
du
ksi beras (ju
ta ton
)Banned using 57 pesticides
Release of HY var., increase of rice price
Withdraw subsidy for pesticide
El-Nino
Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas
El-Nino
El-Nino
Improve technology and extensification
Withdraw subsidy, political crisis
Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice
Imp
ort
(M
illio
n T
on
nes
)R
ice Pro
du
ction
(Mill io
n T
on
nes)
National Rice Production
El Niño impact on rice production, IndonesiaClimate Risk Management
Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability
Climate Effects of El Nino
Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines
Forecast Product Constraints
Forecast information too general in terms of space and time
Forecast needs are at local level
Forecast information timing does not match user needs
Forecast information received from different sources have conflicting messages
Forecast information language not clearly understood by users
The need
Science based information that is
understandable and usable by all users,
policy and decision makers local
institutions and at risk Communities
Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines
CFA
ProjectInitiation
Research Utilization of Research Products
Climate Forecast Applications Process
• Reduced vulnerability to climate risks
• Minimize losses
• Maximize benefits of favorable climate
Partnership development
Selection of demonstra-tion sites
Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis
Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models
Obtain climate information
Analysis of variability and predictability
Regional climate modeling
Down-scaling
Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system
Decision system
Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization
Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies
Experimen-tal uptake
Capacity building for upscaling
Climate Forecast
Applications
Angat Dam, Angat Dam, BulacanBulacan
Mindanao
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Citarum Catchment
IndramayuIndramayu
Iloilo
West Kalimantan
Cebu
Pilot Locations
Climate Forecast
Applications
End-to-end climate information generation and application system
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication of response options/ feedback
Climate Forecast
Applications
Institutional mechanism: Philippines
GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies
Temperature Anomalies
CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST
Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /
Forum Discussion
Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)
CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS
Near-real-time Data
HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION
Episodic Events Documents
Dumangas Agromet Station
TWG CLIMATE FORUM
Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers
NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer
Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office
IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES
FARMERS
Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo
Climate Forecast
Applications
Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Provision of climate outlook
BMG
IPB
Translation of climate outlook
into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook into crop management
strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of
farmers responseDirectorate of Plant Protection (DITLIN)
Climate Forecast
Applications
Climate Forecast Applications Demonstration sites: Indonesia
Indramayu, West Java
Kupang,Nusa Tenggara Timur
New Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for
Indramayu
DPM 6
DPM 7
RATA-2 HUJAN BULANAN (mm)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
J F M A M J J A S O N D
RATA-2 HUJAN BULANAN (mm)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Old Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for
Indramayu
Indonesia
Climate Risk Management
Impact outlook 2003, Indramayu, West Java
Red Areas in DPM 4 and 6 might be seriously affected by drought as onset of DS a bit earlier than normal and characteristic of rainfall would be BN
Climate Risk Management
Response plan prepared by farmers group, Indramayu
Mid April
Late March
Climate Risk Management
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2
Implementation
Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)
Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)
Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups
Stage 4: training of farmers
Climate risk management schools:Climate Risk Management
Climate Forecast
Applications
Farmers in Losarang show a rainfall graph, which they created from their own rainfall observations using locally-fabricated rain gauges. The farmers are now pilot testing a new planting calendar based on their enhanced understanding of rainfall patterns in their locality.
Climate Forecast
Applications
Farmer participants in Indramayu Climate Field School studying the process of rainfall formation
Farmers’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans
Farmers of Kelompok Tani Makmur got good harvest in DS 2004, while neighboring villages did not get anything as they made a wrong decision not to plant.
Climate Forecast
Applications
Priority Areas of Climate Field School (Jawa)
Climate Forecast
Applications
Climate Field School: replication
2004
10 DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet Indramayu
BandungCirebonSragenMalangLahatBanjarMinahasaMarosJembrana
2005
10 DistrictsANFIS,Kalman,NonLin.,PCA
+20 DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet,ANFIS, Kalman,NonLin.,PCA
2006
Validation30 Districts
30 New DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet,ANFIS, Kalman,NonLin.,PCA
Numerical Model 10 Districts
s/w model stat.MR1234
PC Cluster u/ Numerical Model Expand PC Cluster
Climate Forecast
Applications
CFA Program: stakeholders-initiated replication
DITLIN: Recent institutional development
SUB BAGIAN TATA USAHADrs. Agung Wradsongko, MP
SUBDIT ANALISIS & MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM
Ir. Jatmiko SUBDIT PENGELOLAAN PHT
Ir. Sarsito WGS, MM
SEKSI KELEMBAGAANIr. B. Indriastuti K
SEKSI PEMASYARAKATANIr. Dyah Mutiawari
SUBDIT PENGENDALIAN OPT
Ir. Hari Utomo
SEKSI OPT SEREALIADrs. Ruswandi, MM
SEKSI OPT KACANG-2AN DAN UMBI-2AN
Ir. Ety Purwanti
KELOMPOK JABATAN FUNGSIONAL
BALAI PENGUJI MUTU PRODUK TANAMAN
Ir. Yayah Roliyah, M Si
SEKSI ANALISI IKLIMIr. Irwan Kamal
SEKSI MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM
Ir. Endang Titi P. MM
DIREKTUR PERLINDUNGAN TANAMAN
Ir. Ati Wasiati
*Subdivision on Climate Analysis and Mitigation
SEKSI PELAYANAN TEKNIK
Drs. Oscar Rulli
SEKSI PENGELOLAAN SAMPLE
Dra. Tantri Indrianti
SUB BAGAIN TATA USAHASuparjo
SUB DIT PENGELOLAHAN DATA
OPTIr. Fatra Widjaya,
M Si
SEKSI INFORMASI & DOKUMENTASI
Ir. Yarmiati Munaf
SEKSI MONITORINGDrs. Tigor Sagala
Applications Project: Planning and Management
WMO El Niño advisory, 2006
Characteristics of El Nino 2006/2007 isQuite similar to 2002/2003
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SS
T A
no
ma
ly a
t N
ino
3.4
(oC
)
Delay Onset of RS 2002 and BN rainfall in DS2003
?
Applications Project: Planning and Management
2006 2007
BMG provide forecast onAugust/updated in October
Climate Team at Agriculture Office held meeting with related field staffs from related agencies to prepare action plans for managing possible flood and drought risk in 2007 and inputs for Regent for inter-sectoral meeting and instruction letter for sub-districts
Monitor climate and provide forecast onApril 2007
Select options and conduct the selected option
Implement anticipation actions (early planting and accelerating WS planting)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Month
Pla
ntin
g A
rea (
000 h
a)
Normal
El Nino
La Nina
Preparing program for supporting the action plans and socialization
Translation
Institutional support – local government initiates and facilitates
Contacting agriculture inputs distributors to provide enough fertilizers, seed
stocks for supporting early planting and accelerating planting for WS
2006/2007
Applications Project: Planning and Management
Revolving fund (loan without interest and pay back period within 2-4 seasons) for assisting farmers to implement management options in DS2007 (planting non-rice crops)
Funding for 950 ha (700 ha for soybean and 250 ha for maize) – local government budget
Seeds supply (1000 ha for maize and 2150 ha for soybean) – central government budget
Establishing agreement with Sucofindo to provide market for the farmers products (soybean and maize)
30.6
28.9
40.5
1877
22.4
0.3
77.3
1891
44.1
24.3
31.6
1899
19.3
10.7
70
1901
17.5
16.9
65.6
1904
25.2
1262.8
1905
27.9
1.2
70.9
1907
13
15.4
71.6
1911
24.5
75.5
1913
18.8
3.4
77.8
1915
44.03
25.7
30.27
1918
35.7
2.3
62
1920
21.1
78.9
1925
17.8
10.7
71.5
1939
35.5
64.5
1941
35.1
64.9
1951
38.3
61.7
1965
35.4
64.6
1966
21.9
78.1
1968
36.6
3.8
59.6
1972
27.1
6.9
66
1974
29.1
70.9
1982
23.6
6.7
69.7
1985
16.7
3
80.3
1986
29.8
17.9
52.3
1987
Moderate Drought – Rainfall Deficiency 26% to 50% of the Normal
Severe Drought – Rainfall Deficiency Exceeding 50% of the Normal Rainfall Normal
Area of the Country affected by Moderate and Severe Drought
2002
1877
1918
1899
20021987
Drought Shocks and Policy Response
1877
Drought Events
Major Policy Interventions
Famine Codes
1965
Green Revolution and FCI
Scarcity Relief
1972
Employment Generation Programmes
Drought Relief
1979
ContingencyCropPlan
DroughtManagement
1987
WatershedApproach
WaterManagement
2002? ? ? ?
Each round represent death of one million people
Each round represent around fifty million people affected
1972 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall 1987 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall
2002 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall
Monsoon Aberration 2002Drought 2002
Potential Application of Climate Information
• Contingency planning with climate archive
Seasonal Rainfall - 2002 Rajasthan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Ajm
er
Alw
ar
Bansw
ara
Bara
n
Bhara
tpur
Bhilw
ara
Bundi
Chitt
org
arh
Dausa
Dholp
ur
Dungarp
ur
Jaip
ur
Jhala
war
Jhunjh
unu
Kara
uli
Kota
Rajs
am
and
Saw
ai M
adhopur
Sik
ar
Sirohi
Tonk
Udaip
ur
Barm
er
Bik
aner
Churu
Sri G
anganagar
Hanum
angarh
Jais
alm
er
Jalo
re
Jodhpur
Nagaur
Pall
Districts
Rain
fall (
mm
)
June July August September Seasonal Normal
Potential Application of Climate Information
• Contingency planning with climate archive
Seasonal Rainfall - 1987 Rajasthan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Ajm
er
Alw
ar
Bansw
ara
Bara
n
Bhara
tpur
Bhilw
ara
Bundi
Chitt
org
arh
Dausa
Dholp
ur
Dungarp
ur
Jaip
ur
Jhala
war
Jhunjh
unu
Kara
uli
Kota
Rajs
am
and
Saw
ai M
adhopur
Sik
ar
Sirohi
Tonk
Udaip
ur
Barm
er
Bik
aner
Churu
Sri G
anganagar
Hanum
angarh
Jais
alm
er
Jalo
re
Jodhpur
Nagaur
Pall
Districts
Rain
fall (
mm
)
June July August September Seasonal Normal
Potential Application Potential Application of of Extended Weather PredictionExtended Weather Prediction
Prediction of dry and wet Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale ofspells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning Critical operational planning In agricultureIn agriculture
Gaps
Dissemination to at-risk communities
Observation/ monitoring
Warning formulation
Community response
Data analysis
Prediction Risk assessment
Emergency response plansPublic education/ awarenessMitigation programs
Potential impact assessment
Preparation of response options
Aging and insufficient observation and data communication facilities
Numerical prediction capability Skilled human resource Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts
Local level potential impact assessment not done
Language Localized, relevant
Institutional mechanism, linkages SOPs Redundant communication systems Reach to special groups
Data sharing among agencies
Public awareness Communication of forecast limitations Lack of trainers/ facilitators Resources to respond to warning
Regulatory framework for warning Stakeholders involvement and roles
ADPC-Facilitated Regional Multi-Hazard Warning System
Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines
What ADPC Could offer ? Facilitate development and Application of Tailor-
made User friendly Drought risk information by connecting Science and Society
Facilitate development of End-end Institutional system through pilot experiments
Promotes a Culture Managing Climate Variability –by treating drought as a normal feature of climate variability.
Facilitate Share of best practices -Global ,regional and National and Local stakeholders
ADPC intervention:
Global climate information providers
Intermediate users
End-users
ADPC ADPC
National met agenciesAgricultureWater resources
Climate Risk Management
Current capacities of countries in generating actionable severe weather warning informationSurface observation system
Upper observation system
Data communication facilities
Ability to draw data from Global network
Availability of historical data base
Trained man power in NWP
Computing facilities for NWP
Down scaling to generate tailor made forecast
Interpretation and translation into user friendly forecast
Bangladesh 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0
Cambodia 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
China 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 2 2
Lao PDR 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0
Maldives 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0
Myanmar 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0
Philippines 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2
Sri Lanka 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 0 0
Thailand 4 4 3 5 3 3 3 2 2
Vietnam 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 0 2
ECONOMIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FRAME WORK
The ADPC-Facilitated Multi-HazardEarly Warning System in the
Indian Ocean and Southeast AsiaA.R. Subbiah, Director, Climate Risk Management
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
Partners
Farmers groups
Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
An
nu
al G
SD
P G
ro
wth
R
ate
, %
Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics
Directorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture
Bogor Agricultural University
Central Bureau of Statistics
BULOG (National food logistics agency)
Ministry of Regional Infrastructure
BAKORNAS BPB(National coordinating agency for disaster management)
CARE International in Indonesia
Provincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara Timur
Office of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West Java
PAGASA(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Department of Agriculture
Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
National Irrigation Administration
National Water Resources Board
National Disaster Coordinating Council
Dumangas Municipal Government
Local NGOs
Farmers groups
National Power Corporation
Applications Project: Planning and Management
Communicating uncertainty: Climate Field School for journalists
Climate Field School Helps Farmers Set-up Planting Strategy
Farmers’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans
BMG
Analyzing Climate Forecast
Management Options (in the form of instruction letter from Regent
Field Observation on pest and Diseases
Distribute the Instruction of the Regent to head of sub-district
Head of Sub-District transmit the instruction and guidance to Kuwu
after adjustment
Farmer Group
Farmers
Issued guidance for managing crop when
there is symptoms
Climate Team under Sub Division of Food Crop
Issued by Regent or secretary
By Pest and diseases observers assisted by sub-district staff
By Head of Agriculture Office
Extension Workers/ Pest and Diseases Observers
Early or late of the month depend on
location and irrigation schedule
Oct
ober
Sep
t/O
ctJu
ne/J
uly
Aug
ust
Provide revolving fund for farmers in vulnerable areas for managing climate risks
Apr
ilM
arch
/Par
ilJa
nuar
yF
ebru
ary
1st 2nd
Increase media roleIn disseminating the information!
Communication flow
D. Mainstreaming into development process
In agribusiness
Farmers cooperative to take part in business activities for agriculture inputs activities and marketing
Pro-active in establishing partnership with other entities in agribusiness (such as market linkage) etc
Institutional development within the Ministry of Agriculture
Creation of Sub-division on climate analysis and mitigation Ongoing efforts to establish a National Extension Workers Network
Funding support from local development fund
Applications Project: Planning and Management
Municipal Council
resolution providing
for annual
appropriation to
support climate
forecast applications