Download - Closing remarks, Gilbert Cette
Productivity growth and innovation in the long run
OECD – NBER Conference 25 – 26 September 2014
Summing up
Gilbert Cette Banque de France and AMSE
Summing up
Very rich conference on productivity
Difficult task to propose a summing up
Gives the state of the knowledge and of the debate on many aspects of this topic:
Yesterday, long-term productivity trends • In the past and in the future • Impact of certain ‘headwinds’ (as by Gordon): Inequalities, sustainability…
Today, main drivers of productivity • Technical progress and knowledge diffusion • Organisational changes • Network issues
Summing up
Not going to propose a summary Propose to raise some important points coming from
presentations and debates:
What, from my point of view…
… was consensual
… was not consensual
… other points, for future conferences?
Summing up
What was consensual
Importance of sustainability dimensions of GDP and productivity growth • Growing inequalities and associated decreasing social
mobility (session 2, William and Andrew) • Climate change risks and consequences (session 3, Michael
and Frederik)
But… have to consider that… • In growth and productivity research, usually, or these
dimensions are the central topic of the research, or they are just mentioned
• In growth and productivity conference, they get some specific sessions
• They are not really included in research on long period
Summing up
What was consensual
Numerous drivers of productivity • Human capital (session 1, Francesco) • Speed of adoption of technological innovation (session 1,
Diego) • Aglomeration (session 6, William and Gilles) • Between firms, from factor allocation (section 7, Chad and
Ufuk) • At the firm level, management, organisation, skill… (session
5, Nicholas and Luis). New and dynamic field of research All these factors are influenced by institutions No policy recommandation!!! But…
Summing up
What was not consensual
The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the
facts concerns all developped countries
Average annual growth rate of labour productivity per hour Smoothed indicator Whole economy – 1891-2012 – In % Source : Bergeaud, Cette and Lecat (2014)
Summing up
What was not consensual
The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the
facts concerns all developped countries • The problem is not completely the same for non-US
countries: They do not benefit completely from the ICT revolution
ICT capital coefficient (x100), at current prices (Ratio of ICT capital stock to GDP in current prices) Scope: The whole economy – 1970-2013 Source: Cette, Clerc and Bresson (2014)
Summing up
What was not consensual
The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the
facts concerns all developped countries • The problem is not completely the same for non-US
countries: They do not benefit completely from the ICT revolution
• Why?
Here again, economic policy is not useless!
Summing up
Other points, for next conferences? Macro aspects
The question of the cost of the crisis, in terms of productivity Impact on level? Trend? Transitory? Permanent?
Betweeen productivity and GDP per capita, interveine several variables as participation rates
What we currently observe on this field is completely the opposate to what was observed after the first oil shock (Prescott 2004, …): Divergence between Europe : increase
US : decrease
Summing up
Very rich and stimulating conference
Useful to debate on productivity topics: still puzzles and questions
Thanks a lot to the organisers Hope that other conferences like this one will be regularly
organised