Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
$350,000
$389,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000Median Price
Coachella Valley Median Detached Home Price May 2002 - May 2017
CV Detached Median Price 4% growth curve
Summary
The median Coachella Valley price for detached homes was unchanged from last month at $389,000. This represents a $39,000 increase or 11.1% gain over
last year. The median Coachella Valley price for attached homes rose to $260,000 in May, finally breaking out above $250,000 which had been its limit for
two years. The median price for detached homes in six of the nine major Valley cities showed positive year over year returns. The six positive returns
ranged from 11.7% for Desert Hot Springs down to 3.8% for Rancho Mirage. One city, Coachella, was unchanged price wise and two cities had negative
returns - Palm Desert was down 1.3% and Indian Wells down 5.2%. Attached home prices were a mixed bag; four cities had positive year over year returns
while four were negative. Total three month sales have now surpassed 1,000 units a month and are up 20% over last year. Both attached and detached sales
are participating in this sales expansion. Detached sales are up 21% while attached sales are up 19%. Inventory continues to improve. On June 1st it stood
at 4,113 units, which is 849 units less than last year. With lower inventory and higher sales, the “months of supply” ratio on June 1st stood at 5.2 months.
A year ago it was 7.2 months. The DOM ratio for May confirms this improvement going from 93 days a year ago to 74 days today.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
$250,000$260,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Median PriceCoachella Valley Median Attached Price
May 2002 - May 2017
CV Median Attached Price 3% growth curve
Coachella Valley Attached Median Price
We are pleased to finally see some strength in attached home prices. The median price for the Valley rose to $260,000 in
May, finally breaking out above $250,000 which had been its limit for two years. While it’s modest it still represents a gain
of 4%. As the graph shows, the next four months have historically been a problem for attached home prices. We believe
it’s because over 75% of all condominiums are owned by non-residents and non-resident buyers leave the Valley as the
hot, summer months approach. Hopefully the price give back this year will be modest, setting the stage for possibly larger
gains next year.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
May-17 Year Ago
12 Month
Change 2011 Low
Gain off
2011 Low 2006 High % from High
Desert Hot Springs $199,450 $178,500 11.7% $85,000 134.6% $295,000 -32.4%
La Quinta $518,000 $465,000 11.4% $245,000 111.4% $682,020 -24.0%
Indio $300,000 $279,700 7.3% $158,500 89.3% $380,500 -21.2%
Palm Springs $585,000 $550,500 6.3% $335,000 74.6% $600,000 -2.5%
Cathedral City $286,750 $272,500 5.2% $139,000 106.3% $395,000 -27.4%
Rancho Mirage $649,000 $625,000 3.8% $423,000 53.4% $950,000 -31.7%
City of Coachella $225,000 $225,000 0.0% $121,950 84.5% $335,000 -32.8%
Palm Desert $380,000 $385,000 -1.3% $287,000 32.4% $543,000 -30.0%
Indian Wells $815,000 $860,000 -5.2% $540,000 50.9% $1,205,000 -32.4%
Detached Homes
May-17 Year Ago
12 Month
Change 2011 Low
Gain off
2011 Low 2006 High % from High
Cathedral City $155,000 $135,000 14.8% $107,500 44.2% $270,500 -42.7%
La Quinta $349,500 $305,500 14.4% $265,000 31.9% $532,500 -34.4%
Indio $160,000 $149,000 7.4% $75,000 113.3% $279,000 -42.7%
Rancho Mirage $347,500 $325,000 6.9% $260,000 33.7% $510,000 -31.9%
Palm Desert $268,000 $269,500 -0.6% $175,000 53.1% $410,000 -34.6%
Palm Springs $234,000 $239,500 -2.3% $150,000 56.0% $350,000 -33.1%
Indian Wells $394,500 $413,500 -4.6% $321,500 22.7% $557,500 -29.2%
Desert Hot Springs $146,000 $157,000 -7.0% $86,000 69.8% $303,000 -51.8%
City of Coachella N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Attached Homes
12 Month Change in City Median Prices
The median price for detached homes in six of the nine major Valley cities showed positive year over year returns, one –
Coachella – was unchanged and two cities had negative returns. Palm Desert was down 1.3% and Indian Wells down 5.2%.
The six positive returns ranged from 11.7% for Desert Hot Springs down to 3.8% for Rancho Mirage. Attached home prices
were a mixed bag; four cities had positive year over year returns while four were negative. The two highest returns were
Cathedral City and La Quinta, with year over year gains just over 14%.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
844
1,018
314375
531
643
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Un
its
Detached, Attached and Total Sales3 month moving average
Total Sales Attached Sales Detached Sales
Monthly Sales – 3 month trailing avg.
As we said last month - and emphasize again now - home sales in the Valley are surging. This is very important and was the
missing factor to a strong market the last three years. Total three month sales have now surpassed 1,000 units a month and
are up 20% over last year. Both attached and detached sales are participating in this sales expansion. Detached sales are up
21% while attached sales are up 19%. We expect these numbers to continue to increase over the next month or two, then
reverse somewhat as the seasonal pattern takes hold.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
688
794
236276
452
519
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Un
its
Detached, Attached and Total Sales12 month moving average
Total Sales Attached Sales Detached Sales
Monthly Sales – 12 month trailing avg.
As we predicted late last year, total longer term Valley sales are finally approaching 800 units a month, a level not seen
since the spring of 2013. This is an increase of 15.4% over last year. Detached sales at 519 units are up 14.8% and attached
sales, at 276, are up 16.9%. We now predict that total long term sales will reach a five year high of 850 units before the end
of this year, as this is the level three month sales seem to be indicating.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
18
77
13
45 39
122
162
219 213
103
79
65
18
4431
115126
180 183
69
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
BERMUDADUNES
CATHEDRALCITY
CITY ofCOACHELLA
DESERTHOT
SPRINGS
INDIANWELLS
INDIO LA QUINTA PALMDESERT
PALMSPRINGS
RANCHOMIRAGE
THOUSANDPALMS
Un
its
Home Sales by City 3 month avg sales
May 2017 Year Ago
Home Sales per month by City
All cities except Coachella have substantially higher three month sales over last year. Percentage wise, sales in Bermuda
Dunes are 93% higher, Thousand Palm sales are 53% higher and Rancho Mirage sales are up 48%. In absolute numbers,
Palm Desert has the highest three month sales averaging 219 units a month, followed by Palm Springs at 213 units, La
Quinta at 162 units and Indio at 122.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
173
268
205
111
72
5038
1811
73
156
233
162
95
5643
20 158
56
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M
Un
its
Home Sales by Price Range3 mos avg
Avg Sales Last Three Months Same Time Last Year
Home Sales by Price Range
Like it did last month, total three month sales increased in every price bracket compared to last year. The largest increases,
percentage-wise, were in the higher priced homes – from $700k and above. The sales increase in homes over $1M was 30%.
The increases in sales in price brackets below $700k were smooth and consistent across the entire band.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
4,962
4,113
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
U
n
i
t
s
Valley Housing InventoryJune 1st 2012 to June 1st 2017
Coachella Valley Inventory.
Inventory continues to improve. On June 1st it stood at 4,113 units, which is 849 units less than last year. If inventory
continues to follow the historical pattern, it should now decline until August or September where we estimate it will probably
reach 3,000 units, a low level not seen since the autumn of 2014.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
3.6
5.4
6.6
7.2
5.2
93
74
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17
Days
Mo
nth
s
"Months of Supply" and "Days on the Market"
Months of Supply DOM
“Months of Supply” and “Days on the Market”
With lower inventory and higher sales, the “months of supply” ratio on June 1st stood at 5.2 months. A year ago it was 7.2
months. To show the improvement in this important metric over time, we’ve indicated the ratio not only for last year but June
1st for the last four years. As the above chart clearly shows, the current ratio of 5.2 months is the lowest ratio since June 1st
2013. The DOM ratio for May confirms this improvement going from 93 days a year ago to 74 days today.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
3.1 3.24.6
5.87.0 7.1 7.2
10.0
14.8 15.3
3.84.9
6.9
8.3
10.09.1
14.3 13.8
21.020.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M
Mo
nth
s
"Months of Supply" by Price Range uses avg. twelve month sales
June 1st 2017 Year ago
“Months of Supply” by Price Range
We see significant improvement in “months of supply” in every price bracket. The improvement is particularly concentrated
in homes priced over $700k. For homes priced between $700k and $800k, the improvement from 14.3 months to the current
7.2 months is almost 50%! In particular, for homes priced over $1M, the ratio is finally getting into a lower, acceptable range
closer to 1 year.
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©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report May 2017
2.53.3 3.6
4.2 4.3 4.65.2 5.5
6.37.1 7.4
9.6
1.9
4.6 4.8
6.35.7
5.0
7.27.8
9.9
8.8
11.8 12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
M
o
n
t
h
s
"Months of Supply" by Citycity inventory divided by average twelve month sales
June 1st 2017 Year Ago
“Months of Supply” by City
Every major city in the Valley except Coachella city shows considerable improvement in its “months of supply” ratio over
last year. Seven cities now have ratios below 6 months and no city has a ratio over ten months. Because of seasonal
trends, we can expect to see these rations continue to improve over the next three months
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The Desert Housing Report May 2017
1.8%2.9% 3.1% 3.2%
3.7% 3.8% 4.0%4.7% 4.7%
5.6%
7.4%8.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal S
ale
s
Distressed Sales by Citypercent of total sales
May-2017 1 Year Ago 2 Years Ago
Distressed Sales by City
Distressed sales (REO and short sales) are now only 3.7% of total sales, the first time this ratio has fallen below 4% since 2006.
All cities now have ratios below 10%, the first time this has happened since the foreclosure crisis over seven years ago. Two
cities have slightly higher ratios than they did a year ago – La Quinta and Cathedral City – but the increase is very small.
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The Desert Housing Report May 2017
-2.6% -2.7%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
Sale Price Discount from ListMay 2017
Sale Price Discount from List
The latest “Sale Price Discount from List” is at -2.7%, which is just one tenth of a percent over a year ago. The chart clearly shows
the discount has been consistently oscillating between 2% and 3% for the last four years. The current percent implies that the
selling discount to a home listed for $300,000 is approximately $8,100.
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The Desert Housing Report May 2017
Explanation and Description of Market Watch’s Graphs and Calculations
Prices: Except for our attached price index, all city and regional median prices are for single family detached homes only. All prices are the median value
for all transactions over the last three months (except for Indian Wells, which is six months due to the small number of monthly sales). For example, the
median price for the month of May will be the median value of all sales in March, April and May of detached homes. This longer time period reduces the
amount of wide and meaningless variation that one gets taking only the last month’s transactions and provides more reliable information. While we do
show the median selling price in our city reports, we try to emphasize the median price per sq. ft. in both these and our regional reports. For technical
reasons this metric is more reliable than median price and presents us and the reader with fewer statistical anomalies and variations.
Sales: Sales numbers are the sum of both attached and detached home sales. We present two sales numbers – three month average of sales and twelve
month averages. The three month average measures and shows the seasonal variations of the region. These three month averages should only be
compared against the same three months of previous years. For example, one should never compare three month sales in spring to that of the fall. The
twelve month average takes out all seasonality and is very useful when trying to assess the long term growth or contraction of sales in the region and at
the city level.
Inventory and Months of Sales: When we provide a monthly report for, say, the month of May, all sales and pricing are done using transactions
throughout that month and the previous two months. However, when we measure inventory at the end of May, it’s the inventory as of June 1st the next
month. It is the sum of inventory of both attached and detached homes. Remember sales and prices are accumulative while inventory is a momentary
snapshot of inventory on a specific date. To avoid confusion, the inventory reported in the May report is for June 1st, and our graphs and charts for inventory
and months of sales will give this date and not the date of the month of the report.
When calculating “months of sales” we almost always use average sales over the last twelve months and not three months. If we do use three months we
will indicate that we are dividing inventory by three month sales and not the normal twelve month average.
Days on the Market and Sale Price Discount from List Price: These calculations are also the median value of the metrics reported from the MLS listing
and are calculated over the last three months of transactions like price and sales. This is done to help reduce random variation and movements.
Call Out Numbers: The two numbers inserted in the charts are the most recent value(s) and the value(s) one year ago. Each number is connected to the
point on the chart it refers to by a small thin line.
Scatter Diagram Value Curve: In the individual city reports we provide a Scatter Diagram Value Curve which plots the price per sq. ft. of every sale for
the last three months versus the square feet of that home. In the graph each small blue circle represents a sale. Then a best fit linear line is calculated
through those points using the least square method to arrive at the value curve. The value curve represents the price per sq. ft. that the market is generally
giving different size homes. We provide the actual linear equation for people who might want to use it to calculate prices for different sized homes.
To contact Market Watch call Vic Cooper at 949-493-1665