Download - COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400 001 15 th Naval Higher Command Course December 2 nd 2002
COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE,MUMBAI - 400 001
15th Naval Higher Command Course
December 2nd 2002
CHINA’S STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION :
AN ANALYSIS OF ITS GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPACT
Dr. W.LAWRENCE S.PRABHAKAR, Ph.D.,
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
MADRAS CHRISTIAN COLLEGECHENNAI.
Influences of SunZi, Confucius, Menicus on Chinese Strategic Thought:
Strategic Culture – The most viable method to understand Chinese Strategic Thought.
- Civilizational Antiquity
- Unique Historical Dynamics
- Unique Geo-Strategic Location
- Unique Lingual Cultural Heritage
Sustenance of Strategic Culture over 5000 years
- SunZi, The Art of War
- Confucius, The Analects
- Predominant Strategic Paradigm of China: Confucius – Menicus Pragamatism Concept of Absolute FlexibilityConcept of The Three HeavensConcept of The Middle Kingdom
Salient Principles of Chinese Strategic Thought:
- Deception – The Essence of all WarfareSubtlety, Sophistication, Maneuver, Covert Operations and the Indirect Approach
- Centrality of Armed ForcesPolitical and Praetorian PurposesPolitical Power Flows from the Barrel of the Gun
- Human Dimensions of ConflictPrimacy of Man Over Material Primacy of Spirit and Life Energy Over Matter
- Essence of Counter StrategySignificance of Winning Over the Adversary by negation of his StrategyPrimacy of Spirit and Life Energy Over Matter
- People’s War – Total War (MaoTseTung)People’s War Under Hi-Tech Conditions (Limited War: Conventional and Nuclear Forces)
- Primacy of Human Force Over TechnologyMotivation, Resilience, Élan Vital
China’s Changing Strategic Doctrines
- Dominant Elite in the Post 1949 Era: MaoTseTung; DengXiaoPing; Jiang ZeminMaoTseTung – Revolutionary & Radical Militarism; People’s War; Nuclear Weapons – Paper TigersDengXiaoPing: Pragmatic Flexibility; Four Modernizations; Primacy of Economy and Technology
Five Changing Paradigms:
- Debate of Ideologue Vs the Technocrat (MaoTseTung)
- Integration of Defence and Development (DengXiaoPing)
- Struggle against Nuclear Hegemony (US and Soviet/Russian Domination)
- Shift from Disarmament to Nonproliferation
- New Paradigms of Chinese Nuclear Activism
Strategic Determinants of Chinese Behaviour in the Modernization Period
- Pursuit of Comprehensive National Power Economic Technological Strength: Basis for Strategic Power
- Sovereignty ConcernsTaiwan Reunification; Disputes in the South China Sea; Conflict over Resources in the RegionZealous preservation of vital National Interest
- Regime Maintenance: Preservation of Political Power; Monopoly of Communist Party: Consolidation of Economic Strength under Authoritarian Regimes
- Dissatisfaction with Current International OrderChina – Dissatisfied Power; Penchant for Power Expansion; Anti-Hegemonic Defiance of US Hegemonic Power Quest for Multi-Polarity or Align with US as peer Partner - Sino – US condonmium
Factors Affecting Chinese Strategic Behaviour
- Acculturation to International Order Assumption that China would reform to International Order; Induction of China into WTO would “soften” their aggressive behaviour
- Democratization: Spread of Liberal Democracy – Hub for Political Reform; Rule of Law, Economic Liberalization, Free Markets, Structural Reform
- Future of the PLA – Vanguard of the Regime; Bolster the Regime in event of Crisis of Governance
Dynamics of PLA Modernization
- PLA Strategic StrengthsSizeable Conventional Forces 2.8 million compared to 1.4 million US; 1.2 million RussiaMan power Reduction and Technological modernizationInduction of New Weapon Systems: Technology intensive drive
- Strategic Nuclear Capability: ICBMs DF-31 (10-20) IRBMs & MRBMs (DF-4, DF-5, DF-3)
- MIRV capability – GPS/GLONASS/Twin Star
Nuclear Naval Arsenal
- Xia Class SSBNs; Han Class; Ming Class; Song Class Nuclear SSNsJulang Class SLBMs; JL-1; JL-2, Modified Xia Class tipped with JL-2
- Chemical & Biological Weapons China signatory of 1972 Chemical & Biological Conventions; Clandestine C&B Warfare CapabilitiesCreation of Anti-C&B Warfare Units
- Surface to Surface Missiles Substantial Chinese Inventory of SSMs: Missiles – Weapons of Quick Resort; Intimidation Tactics; Icons of Chinese Commercial Military SalesMissile Modernization; Improved Payloads; Increased Accuracy; GPS Guidance; Variable NBC Payloads
Geographical Terrain
- China’s Geographical Terrain suited for Guerilla Warfare – People’s WarHigh Levels of Attrition against Invading force
- Causality Tolerance; Willingness to absorb High Causality; Korean War – 300,000 to 1 million
PLA – Strategic Weakness
- Obsolete Equipment; Ex-Soviet Vintage Mig19’s (J-6), Mig21’s (J-7), T-54,T-55, Ex-Soviet MBT – Chinese Type 59, Type 62 MBTsPLA Navy Warships, Ex-Soviet Riga Type frigate - Jianghu Class Frigate: Ex-Soviet Whiskey, Romeo Class SS adapted in Chinese Models
- Poor LogisticsObsolescent Air and Naval Logistical Capabilities; Defensive Nature of Military Campaign; Improvements in the anvil; Procurement and Buildup of Logistical Air
& Naval Craft
- Command, Control & Communications Deficiencies Lack of Hi-speed, Hi-bandwidth redundant communication system; Geographical Spread – Infrastructure weakness, Obsolescent EquipmentAdvancement in C4I2SR Capabilities as a result of
RMA Chinese RMA – Quantum Leap in this Sector
- Poor Quality of Personnel & Training: Less Premium on Personnel training, Less Time on Simulated Combat Operations; Lack of Joint Service Training
Pathways in China’s Military Modernization
- Two Pathways of Military Modernizations – Procurement from Foreign sources – Various Technologies; Limited Means; Divergent Operating Platforms Operational Difficulties; Problems of Maintenance & Training; Complications of Hardware Induction; Problems in License Production – Attempts to Reverse Engineering
- Home Grown Technologies – Mass Production of Licensed Technologies, Mixed Results, Problems of Quality Control; Technological Lag; Attempts to Hybridize Technology
- Nuclear Weapons: Initial Soviet Assistance; Self-reliance & Indigenous Technological Innovation
- Ballistic Missiles: Range of Chinese Ballistic Missiles; Chinese Specialization in IRBM & MRBM production and Mass Export DF-11 (SRBM) to DF-51(ICBM); Development of Solid propellants; MIRV Capabilities;
- Cruise Missiles primarily antiship variety Ex-Soviet
- HY-1 First Chinese Cruise Missile based on SS-N2A STYX YJ-1 or C-801 Solid Propellant Booster, 40 Km Range based on French Exocet – Similar Design YJ-2 or C-802 Solid Propellant Sustainer, 120 Km RangeYJ-2 Land Attack Version/GPS equipped 180 Km with TERCOM capabilities; Induction of SS-N-22/23 M80 SUNBURN/MOSKIT equipped on Russian supplied Sovremenny Class destroyers
- Nuclear Submarines: 5 Han-Class SSNs; 1 Xia-Class SSBN; Type 093 SSN modeled after Ex-Soviet Victor III SSN & Type 094 SSN
- SAMS: HQ-2 Medium to High Altitude, Radar Guided Ex-Soviet SA-2; HQ-7 Low to Medium Altitude Radar Guided; Ex-French Crotale; HN-5 Shoulder Portable Infra-Red Ex-Soviet SA-7; QW1 Advanced Shoulder Portable Infra Red Ex-US FIM-92 Stinger; HQ-61 Low to Medium Altitude; LY-60 Low to Medium Altitude; HQ-9 Advanced All Altitude – SA-10; PAC Patriot
- New Fighter Attack Air Craft: Current PLAAF J-10 High Performance Single Engine FGA produced with Israeli & Russian Assistance; High-Low Mix Preference
- Future Generation FGA-XXJ of SU27 and F-15 Class IOY – 2015
Others Strategic Programs
- Chinese Space Launch Capabilities: Wide Variety of Space Payloads: Meteorological, Communications, Surveillance; New Generation of Photo Reconnaissance FSW-3 Series with 1 m Resolution; Linkages with US Landsat; French SPOT; Israeli EROS and Russian Remote Sensing Satellites; Chinese Participation in Iridium, Globalstar Satellite Communication Systems; Partnership in US GPS/ Russian GLONASS System
- Directed Energy Weapons: New R&D into High-Powered Micro Wave Weapons and Lasers; Advance Research into Electronic Counter Measures
- Information Warfare: Secret Chinese Efforts in Offensive & Defensive Strategies in IW
SEA POWER PERSPECTIVES OF CHINA: SPECIFIC CONTEXT TO IOR, INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA
• PLA Naval Modernization and expansion:• Brown water to Green water capability: Future Projections to Blue Water
Capability: Offshore Defense Concept.• Sino-South Asian Maritime links : Provides China’s link to East Africa and
Straits of Hormuz • Port Calls; Karachi, Colombo, Chittagong.• Economic aid, technical assistance,military hardware supplies for low budget
South Asian States/allies on concessional terms• Sustained covert transfer of WMD technologies to Pakistan• Pakistan Myanmar anchors for China in the South Asian Region - striving to
neutralize India• Karachi, Gawadar in Pakistan ; Hainggyi Katan islands Great Cocos in
Myanmar.• Role of COSCO in PLAN activities• Future potential to base PLAN nuclear subs in the Arabian Sea SSN/SSGN
access to Pakistan
PLA NAVAL STRATEGY: SPECIFIC CONTEXTS TO IOR, INDIA & SOUTH ASIA
• Naval diplomacy: Port calls, joint naval exercises in the region• Naval basing facilities: Access to Gawadar in Pakistan, Yangon Hainggyi Akyab
Mergui, Great Coco islands off Andaman Sea. SIGINT/ELINT facilities.• Chinese arms transfers : Massive military hardware supplies to Myanmar and Pakistan. • China is comfortable with the authoritarian regimes in Pakistan and Myanmar:
– Bolsters them with arms transfers for political security reasons – Objective: Tilt regional balance against India with tactical alliances and gain naval access in
the region / Regional Naval alliance
• Control of Seagates: Beijing’s objective is to control the critical sea straits: Taiwan straits, Straits of Malacca, Singapore Straits and possibly uninterrupted access to the Straits of Hormuz.
• Apparent intent; Rapid surge into the Indian Ocean via Straits of Malacca access to Myanmar and Pakistan.
• Integrated Sea Control Strategy Offshore Defense Concept: Limited Sea control and Sea Denial capability through assortment of limited numbers of high performance surface combatants and submarines.
• Possible deployment of SSNs and SSGNs in the region.
SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL NAVAL DEVELOPMENTS: IN BEIJING’S INTEREST
• April 2001 Pakistan-Bangladesh joint naval exercises followed by a Pakistan naval squadron visiting Yangon
• Pakistan’s naval flotilla the first ever foreign naval flotilla to visit Yangon precedes Gen.Pervez Musharaff’s visit to Yangon
• Implications of the new Pakistan - Bangladesh naval ties:• Recent sour in India-Bangladesh relations/ Border skirmishes. Bangladesh
military’s traditional hostility to India.• Future possibilities: Pakistan’s naval ships could dock in Myanmar waters
during a possible conflict with India.• Pakistani naval surveillance of Indian Naval activities in the Eastern / Far
Eastern Naval Command• Sino-Pakistani monitoring of telemetry data of Indian missile tests from
Balasore Chandipur Missile test ranges.
Source: Reported Chinese Arms Purchases: RAND Research Report MR-1082-AF
THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: THE FUTURE SUPER POWER
- Multi-Dimensional Regional Competitor - Regional Aerospace Dominance - Regional and Off-Shore Naval Power Projection- Increased Defense Spending- Emphasis on Quality Vs Quantity- Mature Defense Industrial Base
Rationalization of Defense - Industrial ProductionSelective Integration of Foreign High Technology
Development of Technology Work ForceLong Range Strategic R&D Vision
- Regional Hegemony; Enhanced Global Status - Enhanced Chinese WMD Warfare Capabilities- Ambitious Space Faring Power- Determined Long Range Power Projection
CHINA’S GRAND STRATEGIES:
CHINA AND US:
>Chinese perceptions of its emergent power status.
>Emphasis on the development of Comprehensive National Power(CNP)
>Emphasis on development of RMA technologies.
>Chinese strategies of Cooptation and Prevention: Dual policies vis-à-vis US.
>Economic engagement with US: China’s constant endeavor to weaken US Bilateral relations
>China’s entry to WTO: facilitation by US
>Post 9/11 developments: US-China convergence.
>New US Strategic perceptions of China in post-Quadrennial Review Report 2001
CHINA and INDIA:
Sino-Indian relations: A contest of the Asian Balance of Power.
China’s Strategic domain has overwhelming influence on India: domestic & external realms.
Strategies of Engagement: CSBMs; Trade;Counter terrorism.
Indian Deterrence & Power: Response to Chinese renewed aggrandizement.Nuclear and Missile postures.:Limitations are inherent.
Multilateral Grand Strategic Alliances: US, EU, Russia, Japan.
India‘ Expanded ties with ASEAN: Counter balance PRC’s influence.
China & Russia:
Bilateral Issues: Contentious, overspill could aggravate tensions.
Military-Technological Cooperation: Positive signs; Sino-Russian Strategic alliance counter to US NMD, unilateralism.
Scenarios of Change:
I China succeeds Reforms; Transforms into hegemonistic power.Russian interests affected.
II.China’s reforms collapse: instability/ local wars.
III Sino-Russian alliance against a hegemonistic US.
Sino-Russian Strategic Understanding 2001.
China & ASEAN:
Economics & Security:forces of unity and divergence.
Pragmatism and Realism: Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations
ASEAN concerns of PLA Modernization and Regional security.
Local wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force postures: Missile reality
ASEAN Engagement of PRC in regional peace stakes
Good Regional Atmospherics.
ASEAN & PRC Multilateral security framework.
China & ASEAN:
Economics & Security:forces of unity and divergence.
Pragmatism and Realism: Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations
ASEAN concerns of PLA Modernization and Regional security.
Local wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force postures: Missile reality
ASEAN Engagement of PRC in regional peace stakes
Good Regional Atmospherics.
ASEAN & PRC Multilateral security framework.
CHINA & RMA.
Asymmetric Warfare;CNP, Economic-Technological quantum leaps;
New Technologies and Weapons systems: smart weaponry and nano-technology
Space combat;Radiational combat;Paralysis combat; Cyber warfare;Robot combat
Intelligent warfare: Assassins Mace