Download - Colliers Property Market Report JKT-1Q2015
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Research & Forecast Report
4Q 2013Jakarta | Office
Jakarta Property Market Report
Research & Forecast Report
1st Quarter 2015
Accelerating success.
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2OFFICE SECTOROffice Space Offered for Lease
CBD Office Cumulative Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
CBD Office Cumulative Supply Based on Area
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Supply
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Colliers International
is a leader in global real estate services, defined by our spirit of enterprise. Through a culture of service excellence and collaboration, we integrate the resources of real estate specialists worldwide to accelerate the success of our partners. We represent property investors, developers and occupiers in local and global markets. Our expertise spans all property sectorsoffice, industrial, retail, residential, rural & agribusiness, healthcare & retirement living, hotels & leisure.
By Ferry SalantoAssociate Director | [email protected]
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3Annual Future Office Space in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
After very limited additional office space last year, two office buildings in the CBD are officially opened, namely Sahid Sudirman and Gran Rubina which together contributed 169,938 sq m of new office space. The CBD further anticipates around 400,000 sq m of office space projected to be in operation before the end of 2015. The projected additional office supply will be contributed by eight office buildings that as of 1Q 2015 are in the finishing stages of construction.
Apart from the continued influx of new office space, there will a reduction in the total office space. Two office buildings in Sudirman are being demolished as of 1Q 2015. Jalan Sudirman, as the main thoroughfare in the CBD, is undergoing a mega-MRT project to alleviate worsening traffic problems, particularly in the commercial area. With the MRT project, DKI Jakarta Government allow land owners along the MRT route for higher plot ratio, With very expensive land prices in the area and given the higher plot ratio, several old buildings are being considered for demolition and replaced with taller office buildings. By eliminating these two office buildings, the cumulative office supply only grew 2.9% YoY to 4.78 million sq m as of 1Q 2015.
In the CBD, except Jalan Thamrin, all sub-markets will contribute new office buildings in 2015. Jalan Sudirman will lead in terms of both number of office buildings (with three office buildings) and area of office space (43% of annual supply in 2015). Gatot Subroto is one active sub-market with additional space of 130,000 sq m from two office buildings in 2015.
With a total projected 260,500 sq m of office space in 2015, a new office building in Jalan Sudirman will have an area of around 86,000 sq m. This indicates that the higher plot ratio in this main corridor of the CBD has been implemented. Sahid Sudirman tower (258 m in height), is the second tallest office building in Jakarta after Wisma 46 (261.5 m in height). Sinarmas MSIG, a future office building in Sudirman, will also be included in the five tallest office buildings in Jakarta. Later, Jakarta will see an office building with 70 levels situated around Jalan Thamrin that is expected to be in operation in 2018.
Of all of the projected office buildings in 2015 - 2019, about 75% of the 2.9 million sq m have started construction work. This means that only 12 office buildings representing 816,500 sq m are still in the planning stage as of 1Q 2015. Including newly operating office buildings in 2015, the CBD will see around 500,000 sq m of projected additional space per year up to 2019.
Based on marketing scheme, offices for lease constitute 78.2% of the cumulative supply as of 1Q 2015. It is projected that additional supply of offices for lease will still dominate both under-construction and in-planning projects. Excluding in-planning projects, the total future additional space of offices for lease in 2015 - 2019 is 1.23 million sq m with about 0.87 million sq m of offices for sale.
Outside CBD Office Cumulative Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
sq m
For Lease For Sale In Planning
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4In spite of the fact that the outside CBD regularly provides less office space than the CBD, since 2010, additional office supply in the outside CBD has been consistently above 100,000 sq m per year. In 2015, it is expected that 334,206 sq m of additional office space will enter the market. As of 1Q 2015, almost 43% of the above supply has been in operation. South Jakarta will be the most active area, contributing nine of the 12 projected office buildings in 2015.
The outside CBD area will continue to provide office space at least up to 2017. We expect to see additional supply in the outside CBD of around 780,000 sq m in 2016 - 2017. Central and West Jakarta will contribute about the same amount as South Jakarta in terms of number of office buildings.
Annual Future Office Space in the Outside CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Cumulative Office Space in TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
TB Simatupang continues to bolster its position as a secondary commercial area after the CBD, particularly when the area is currently contributing more office space. As of this quarter, four newly operating office buildings in South Jakarta are located in TB Simatupang and this is equal to the office supply in 2014. The four office buildings located in the southern part of TB Simatupang, are 18 Office Park, Plaza Oleos, AD Premier and Metropolitan Tower. Together, these buildings contributed 142,678 sq m to bring the cumulative supply in TB Simatupang to 793,343 sq m as of 1Q 2015. Another three office buildings in TB Simatupang are projected to open in 2015, namely South Quarter 1 and 2, and Graha MRA. These office buildings have reached final stages of construction and are expected to bring additional new office space of 237,234 sq m by the end of 2015, almost three times the additional supply in 2014.
Almost 47% of future office buildings in the outside CBD (excluding TB Simatupang) are projects in the planning stage (no construction activity in the field). The projects under construction are dominated by strata-title offices for sale.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
sq m
For Lease For Sale In Planning
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5Cumulative Supply in the Outside CBD and TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Annual Supply in the Outside CBD and TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Annual Future Office Space in TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2015F 2016F 2017F
sq m
For Lease For Sale In Planning
Overall, the construction work of future office buildings in TB Simatupang is still on schedule. TB Simatupang will see around 260,000 sq m of total projected additional supply in 2016 - 2017, almost equal to the total supply in 2015 alone.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
sq m
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
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6 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
New Supply Pipeline
PROJECTED COMPLETION OFFICE BUILDING PROJECTS NAME LOCATION SGA MARKETING SCHEME STATUS DEVELOPMENT
CBD
2015 Sinarmas MSIG Sudirman 75,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 The Noble House Office Tower Mega Kuningan 45,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 AIA Center (Menara Selaras) Sudirman 47,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 Cemindo Tower Rasuna Said 60,995 For Lease Under Construction
2015 Telkom Landmark Tower II Gatot Subroto 65,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 Bank Muamalat Tower (Satrio Square) Satrio 24,600 For Lease Under Construction
2015 BTPN Tower (Bahana Office Tower) Mega Kuningan 50,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 Wisma Mulia 2 Gatot Subroto 65,000 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Convergence Rasuna Said 36,367 For Lease & Sale Under Construction
2016 International Financial Center 2 Sudirman 50,000 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Menara Pertiwi Mega Kuningan 41,456 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Capital Palace (Office Tower @ ST Regis) Gatot Subroto 90,511 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Menara Palma 2 Rasuna Said 50,000 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Centennial Tower Gatot Subroto 100,000 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Ciputra World Jakarta 2 Satrio 70,000 For Lease & Sale Under Construction
2016 Satrio Tower Satrio 31,604 For Lease Under Construction
2016 The Tower Gatot Subroto 56,492 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Lippo Thamrin Office Tower Thamrin 16,500 For Sale Under Construction
2016 T Tower (BJB Tower) Gatot Subroto 24,000 For Sale Under Construction
2017 Mangkuluhur Tower Gatot Subroto 53,000 For Lease & Sale Under Construction
2017 Sequis Life Tower 2 Sudirman 80,000 For Lease Under Construction
2017 Gayanti City Gatot Subroto 25,000 For Lease In Planning
2017 Prosperity Tower @ Distict 8 Sudirman 71,545 For Sale Under Construction
2017 Treasury Tower @ District 8 Sudirman 139,000 For Sale Under Construction
2017 Sopo Del Tower A Mega Kuningan 80,000 For Lease & Sale Under Construction
2017 Sopo Del Tower B Mega Kuningan 40,000 For Lease Under Construction
2018 Sudirman 7.8 (ex Nugra Santana) Sudirman 52,000 For Sale In Planning
2018 SSI Tower (Graha Surya Intenusa) Rasuna Said 100,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Mangkuluhur Tower II Gatot Subroto 50,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Tower Two at The City Center Sudirman 39,204 For Lease Under Construction
2018 World Trade Center III Sudirman 70,000 For Lease Under Construction
2018 Icon Tower Sudirman 72,500 For Lease In Planning
2018 Tower 2 @ Ciputra World Jakarta 1 Satrio 70,000 For Lease & Sale Under Construction
2018 Astra Tower Sudirman 80,000 For Lease Under Construction
2018 Thamrin Nine Thamrin 97,500 For Lease Under Construction
2018 Chitaland Gatot Subroto 100,000 For Lease Under Construction
2019 Gran Rubina Tower 2 Rasuna Said 32,000 For Sale In Planning
2019 The Hundred Mega Kuningan 35,000 For Lease Under Construction
2019 SCBD Lot.10 (PCPD Tower) Sudirman 96,000 For Lease Under Construction
2019 World Capital Tower Mega Kuningan 72,000 For Sale Under Construction
2019 Tower Three at The City Center Sudirman 34,000 For Lease In Planning
2019 Tower 1 at Sampoerna Strategic Square Sudirman 43,000 For Sale In Planning
2019 Tower 2 at Sampoerna Strategic Square Sudirman 118,000 For Lease In Planning
2019 Redevelopment at Sequis Center Sudirman 100,000 For Lease In Planning
2019 Redevelopment eX Thamrin 150,000 For Lease In Planning
continued
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7Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
New Supply Pipeline
PROJECTED COMPLETION OFFICE BUILDING PROJECTS NAME LOCATION SGA MARKETING SCHEME STATUS DEVELOPMENT
continuation
OUTSIDE CBD EXCLUDING TB SIMATUPANG
2015 Menara Sentraya Blok M 52,072 For Sale Under Construction
2015 ST Moritz Office Tower Puri Indah 19,500 For Sale Under Construction
2015 The Suites Pantai Indah Kapuk 13,200 For Sale Under Construction
2015 Maxima Tower Kelapa Gading 8,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 Nariba Office Suites Mampang 4,200 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Puri Indah Financial Tower Puri Indah 38,500 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Gallery West Kebun Jeruk 29,000 For Sale Under Construction
2016 L'Office Pasar Minggu 41,597 For Sale Under Construction
2016 MNC Tower II Kebon Sirih 20,000 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Sky 18 Tower Pasar Minggu 27,500 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Soho Capital Slipi 36,000 For Sale Under Construction
2016 Altira Sunter 40,000 For Sale Under Construction
2016 BKP Office Tower Sunter 16,000 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Tamansari Parama Wahid Hasyim 10,800 For Sale Under Construction
2017 Soho Pancoran Pancoran 30,000 For Sale Under Construction
2017 Jakarta Box Tower Kebon Sirih 36,000 For Lease Under Construction
2017 Lippo Tower Holland Village Cempaka Putih 27,000 For Sale In Planning
2017 One Tower Kemayoran 21,400 For Sale In Planning
2017 Ciputra Business District Kemayoran Tower 1 Kemayoran 40,000 For Sale In Planning
2017 Ciputra Business District Kemayoran Tower 2 Kemayoran 40,000 For Lease In Planning
2017 Ciputra International Puri 1 Phase 1 Puri 15,000 For Lease In Planning
2017 Ciputra International Puri 2 Phase 1 Puri 20,000 For Lease In Planning
2017 Ciputra International Puri 3 Phase 1 Puri 30,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Kota Kasablanka Office Tower 2 Casablanca 90,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Ciputra International Puri Phase 2 Puri 15,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Ciputra International Puri 1 Phase 3 Puri 15,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Ciputra Internatinal Puri 2 Phase 3 Puri 15,000 For Lease In Planning
2018 Summarecon Tower Slipi 70,000 For Lease In Planning
TB SIMATUPANG
2015 Graha MRA 13,000 For Lease Under Construction
2015 South Quarter Tower 1 40,778 For Sale Under Construction
2015 South Quarter Tower 2 40,778 For Lease Under Construction
2016 South Quarter Tower 3 40,778 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Zuria 6,584 For Lease Under Construction
2016 Cibis Tower 60,800 For Lease Under Construction
2017 Beltway Office Park Tower 4 30,839 For Lease Under Construction
2017 The Sima 60,000 For Lease Under Construction
2017 Arkadia Tower G 30,000 For Lease In Planning
2017 The Manhattan Square Tower 2 39,375 For Lease & Sale In Planning
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8Number of Space Absorbed and Occupancy in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
Occupancy Rate in All Categories of Office Building in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
1Q 2014 2014 2015YTD
Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
CBD1Q 2014 YoY 1Q 2015 QoQ 4Q 2014
96.5% 93.6% 95.7%
Demand and Occupancy
All in all, the office market still expects demand from the finance-related industries including insurance and banking, which still require large spaces. The growing information and technology industries, such as telecommunications will also help create office demand in the CBD. Moreover, the policy of the new government to accelerate the countrys infrastructure and energy sectors, will hopefully provide opportunities for the office space business from tenants like consultants or suppliers who support those industry sectors.
The huge supply projected for the next couple of years will create a challenge for the office business. As of 1Q 2015, the total projected supply for 2016 has yet to report pre-committed absorption. Given this situation, we believe that the projected occupancy will continuously decline in the CBD.
Although the office supply was very limited in 2014, the occupancy rate in the CBD dropped from 96.5% in early 2014 to 95.7% at the end of 2014. With new office buildings beginning operations this quarter, the occupancy in the CBD fell to 93.6%. The decreasing trend in the occupancy rates would indicate that more tenants are now considering relocation to the outside CBD.
A general situation whereby substantial demand is largely driven by the mining, oil and gas sectors is now becoming less. Tapering business conditions and high asking rents are factors which likely cause tenants to consider cutting their operational expenses.
About 62% of the total remaining space in the CBD as of 1Q 2015 was contributed by vacant spaces at Premium and Grade A office buildings. Increasingly high asking base rent at Premium and Grade A office buildings, again, has left more vacant space, and caused the occupancy of that building category to decrease by 3.7% QoQ to 92.1%.
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9Pre-Commitment Demand for Future Office Buildings for Lease in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
2015F
2016F
sq mSpace Absorbed Vacant Space
Number of Space Absorbed and Occupancy in the Outside CBD
Commitment Demand for Future Office Buildings for Lease in the Outside CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000
2015F
2016F
sq mSpace Absorbed Vacant Space
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
The occupancy rates in the outside CBD showed a similar trend to the CBD, declining 2.3% QoQ to 90.9% as of 1Q 2015. Large vacant spaces were largely contributed by office buildings in South Jakarta. As of 1Q 2015, 62.1% of the 233,921 sq m of remaining space in the outside CBD was in South Jakarta. Of that, 72.9% was found at newly operating office buildings in 2014 - 2015.
The occupancy rates of office buildings in South Jakarta, which was recorded at 88.9%, experienced a decreasing trend by 5.2% QoQ. In other areas, the growth of occupancy was relatively flat QoQ and only West Jakarta recorded an average occupancy of 90.7% as of 1Q 2015. The overall West Jakarta office market registered a vacant space reduction of around 20% QoQ. Officially operating committed tenants at new office buildings have helped the occupancy in West Jakarta climb 2% over the previous quarter.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Outside CBD1Q 2014 YoY 1Q 2015 QoQ 4Q 2014
94.6% 90.9% 93.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010 2012 2014
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
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10 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Due to four new office buildings officially operating, the occupancy rate in TB Simatupang dropped significantly by 8.6% QoQ to 84.3% as of 1Q 2015. This is the first time since 2002 that the occupancy in TB Simatupang was below 90%. However, high pre-committed demand for office buildings in 2015 is expected to return the occupancy rate to its higher level. Although newly operating office buildings in 2015 caused occupancy to decline, those new office buildings have secured a 50% occupancy rate on average when beginning operations. Overall, pre-committed occupancy for all office buildings in 2015 has reached 44.1% as of 1Q 2015.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
TB Simatupang1Q 2014 YoY 1Q 2015 QoQ 4Q 2014
96.2% 84.3% 92.8%
Number of Space Absorbed and Occupancy in TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2010 2012 2014
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
Asking Base Rent
CBDAll rental numbers presented in this report are asking rental rates as published by developers. Tenants are becoming more sensitive to the increase in the rental rates recently particularly given the fact that vacant office space is quite abundant and the economy is slowing down. Amidst tenants concern over the high occupancy costs, the average rental rate in rupiah was IDR257,543/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015 for all classes of office buildings, posting an upward adjustment of 1.8% QoQ.
Some office buildings charging in rupiah lowered their rents from the previous quarter. However, increasing rents at office buildings with large vacant spaces have caused the overall asking base rents to climb. As of 1Q 2015, at least two office buildings holding vacant spaces of more than 15,000 sq m raised the rent by IDR50,000 to 80,000/sq m/month.
The asking rents in US dollars showed almost similar growth of 3.6% QoQ, to USD38.18/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015.
Office buildings charging in US dollars and with higher rents above the market average generally having large vacant spaces. As of 1Q 2015, 58.8% of the total remaining vacant space was found at office buildings charging USD40.00/sq m/month and above. Nevertheless, some significant adjustment was made by office buildings charging in US dollars by lowering their rents between USD2.00 and 10.00 as of 1Q 2015. These adjustments caused office rents to climb only modestly QoQ.
Similar to buildings charging in US dollars, of the total vacant space supplied by office buildings charging rent in rupiah, 46.9% is available at office buildings charging rent above the market average rent. This resulted in a higher average rent in rupiah.
In the high specifications class of buildings charging in US dollars, the asking base rent of Premium and Grade A office buildings in the CBD continued to decrease. As of 1Q 2015, the average asking rent was USD42.56/sq m/month, down modestly by 0.3% QoQ. It has been three consecutive quarters since 2H 2014 that the average asking base rent of Premium and Grade A office buildings has decreased QoQ.
The average asking rental rate for Premium office buildings only was USD49.04/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015, down moderately QoQ.
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11 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Average Asking Rental Rates
in Rupiah
in US Dollar
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Average Asking Rental Rates Based on Grade
in Rupiah
in US Dollar
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 0
IDR 50,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 150,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 250,000
IDR 300,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
USD 0.00
USD 10.00
USD 20.00
USD 30.00
USD 40.00
USD 50.00
USD 60.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
All Classes Premium
IDR 0
IDR 50,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 150,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 250,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 350,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 450,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 550,000
IDR 600,000
Grade A Grade B Grade C
USD 0.00
USD 10.00
USD 20.00
USD 30.00
USD 40.00
USD 50.00
USD 60.00
Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C
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12 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Average Asking Rental Rates in the Outside CBD
in Rupiah
in US Dollar
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Outside CBDThe average asking rental rate in the outside CBD showed modest growth QoQ at office buildings charging in both rupiah and US dollars. As of 1Q 2015, the asking base rent registered an average of IDR191,603/sq m/month, while in US dollars it was USD21.47/sq m/month.
The most expensive office locations in the outside CBD area remain in Central and South Jakarta. The asking base rent in Central and South Jakarta was between IDR205,974 and 215,172/sq m/month. In fact, West Jakarta showed significant growth in the rental rates, at 6.2% QoQ, more than in other areas. Several office buildings that have been operating since 2013 - 2014 have had a significant impact on the overall asking base rent in West Jakarta, raising it to IDR197,611/sq m/month.
The least favourite office locations, i.e. North and East Jakarta recorded the lowest asking base rents at between IDR106,736 and 108,729/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015.
Being the secondary business area after the CBD, TB Simatupang (which is part of South Jakarta) helps maintain an asking base rent in South Jakarta to register at the highest level. Although the QoQ growth of asking base rents was low, four office buildings newly operating in early 2015 have raised the asking rent to IDR228,822/sq m/month and USD21.71/sq m/month.
IDR 0
IDR 50,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 150,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 250,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
USD 0.00
USD 5.00
USD 10.00
USD 15.00
USD 20.00
USD 25.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
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13 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Service Charge
Service Charges of Office Buildings in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
The gap between service charges in the CBD and outside CBD tapered. Last year, the service charge in the outside CBD was around 20% less than in the CBD. As of 1Q 2015, the service charge (both IDR and US dollars) in the outside CBD was IDR65,498/sq m/month, up 20.1% QoQ. Office buildings newly operating during 2013 - 2014 had maintenance costs between IDR45,000 and 85,000/sq m/month. Currently, most of the new buildings in the outside CBD continue to improve building service quality and facilities. Moreover, some office buildings, primarily in TB Simatupang, are classified as green buildings. In TB Simatupang alone, the average service charge was IDR59,340/sq m/month, and USD5.93/sq m/month.
Service charges in the CBD climbed 8.5% QoQ and were IDR76,356/sq m/month as of 1Q 2015. Compared to the outside CBD, currently it is 14% higher than in the outside CBD. Based on building grade, service charges at Premium and Grade A office buildings in the CBD were IDR86,562/sq m/month, up 21.5% QoQ. Seven Premium and Grade A office buildings in the CBD had service charges of IDR90,000/sq m/month and above during the reviewed quarter.
IDR 0
IDR 10,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 30,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 50,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 70,000
IDR 80,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
CBD Outside CBD
Although service charges continued to increase, around 35% of office buildings, both in the CBD and the outside CBD still had service charges below IDR50,000/sq m/month.
The Range of Service Charge Cost in the Two Main Areas in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 0
IDR 20,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 100,000
CBD Outside CBD
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14 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Strata-title OfficeAverage Asking Price of Strata-title Office Space per Sq m in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 0
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 40,000,000
IDR 50,000,000
IDR 60,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
CBD Outside CBD exclude TB Simatupang TB Simatupang
The CBD will see a large amount of additional office space for sale in 2015 - 2018, starting with the operation of Gran Rubina and Sahid Sudirman, which brought the cumulative supply of strata-title offices in the CBD to 986,767 sq m as of 1Q 2015. At least another 14 strata-title office buildings will provide 849,564 sq m in the CBD up to 2018. The majority of office buildings are under construction and are expected be completed as scheduled.
The high commitment of office transactions has kept the average take-up rate at 97.6% as of 1Q 2015. Despite dropping QoQ, the take-up rate will bounce back due to the fact that there will be no new additional supply of strata-title office space for sale in the remainder of 2015. During this quarter, some future strata-title office buildings projected to be in operation in 2016 and 2017 have been fully absorbed, which helped bring the pre-commitment sales to 38 and 61%, respectively. These pre-commitment levels are expected to keep the projected take-up rate at a high level in the future.
Annual Supply and Take-up Rates of Strata-title Office Buildings in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
sq m
Annual Supply Annual Take-up
Pre-Committed Demand of Future Strata-title Office for Sale in the CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
In this quarter, the average asking price of vacant space in strata-title office buildings in the CBD was IDR46.9 million/sq m. This suggests a lower price QoQ because some newly under-construction strata-title office buildings, due to their location, offer a launch price lower than the market average. With less vacant space and no newly launched strata-title buildings offered in US dollars during this quarter, the office space price has grown by 5.4% QoQ to USD4,492/sq m.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
sq m
Space Absorbed Space Unabsorbed
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15 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Office | Colliers International
With no additional strata-title office space, the take-up rate in the outside CBD (excluding TB Simatupang) stayed at 94.1% as of 1Q 2015. The projected take-up rate in 2015 - 2016 is expected to be quite high in the outside CBD where the pre-committed absorption of office buildings in those years has reached 60% as of now. The high take-up rates of both existing and future supply has raised the asking prices in the outside CBD to an average of IDR28.6 million/sq m, up 4.1% QoQ.
Annual Supply and Take-up Rates of Strata-title Office in the Outside CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
sq m
Cumulative Supply Cumulative Take-up
Pre-Committed Demand of Future Office for Sale in the Outside CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
2015F
2016F
2017F
sq mSpace Absorbed Space Unabsorbed
All newly operating strata-title offices are located in TB Simatupang, bringing 134,840 sq m of additional space for sale. This relatively large amount of space somewhat decreased the take-up rate in TB Simatupang by 3.5% QoQ to 89.2% as of 1Q 2015. Asking prices of strata-title space in this area rose by 13.8% QoQ to IDR32.2 million/sq m for buildings charging in rupiah. The influx of newly operating strata-title offices is one of the causes for the price increase during the quarter. For buildings charging in US dollars, the average asking price was USD3,500/sq m.
Concluding ThoughtsA more conducive political situation is expected to help accelerate an increase in occupancy to catch up the projected demand in the years ahead. More implemented government programmes are expected to invite more investors to come and bolster the absorption of office space.
Less absorption than projected QoQ will put pressure on asking rents. This will likely cause a weakening of the average asking rent, at least it will be relatively flat during 2015.
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Apartment SectorApartment for Strata-title
SupplyCommencing in 2015, the cumulative supply of apartment units in Jakarta grew at a moderate pace. The apartment market received 3,255 new units, up by 2.3% QoQ, from seven projects comprising four brand new projects and three extension towers. These 3,255 units, or 11% of the total projected 29,451 new units that will be completed this year, are scattered in all areas of Jakarta, except the CBD. Of the total supply in this quarter, 38% is located in South Jakarta, while the remaining portions are located in North Jakarta (25%), East Jakarta (22%), West Jakarta (11%) and Central Jakarta (6%). Overall, with the addition from newly-completed projects, the total existing stock of strata-title apartments in Jakarta rose to 146,300 units. By location, the non-prime areas (North Jakarta and West Jakarta) dominate the market with 22.2% and 21.6% of the total stock, respectively. The
remaining stock is distributed in South Jakarta, CBD area and Central Jakarta at 21.1%, 15.7% and 13.2%, respectively, while East Jakarta had a mere 6.2% of the total inventory.
The first quarter of the year began with optimism among developers as they launched several new apartment projects. Compared to the same quarter last year, there were 7,276 newly-introduced and launched units, 115% higher than in the same period last year. Demand for apartments in Jakarta has been notably strong during the last three years, evidenced by almost all new completed apartment projects achieving more than a 90% sales rate. Apartment units are still perceived as an investment tool as they provide capital gains of around 10 - 25% (if bought at the initial offering) and rental yield expectations of around 6 to 8% per year.
The reform of Indonesias fuel subsidy policy will have a positive impact on the property sector as the government aims to allocate the budget to more productive uses, such as improvements in infrastructure. The acceleration of infrastructure projects will expand the economy, in line with the governments target of a 5.5% GDP growth this year, an increase 0.5% from the growth in 2014.
List of Completed Projects During 1Q 2015NAME OF DEVELOPMENT LOCATION REGION DEVELOPER NO. OF UNITS
Belmont Residence (Tower Montblanc) Jl. Meruya Ilir West Jakarta Gapura Prima 350
The Royal Springhill (Lotus Tower) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta Springhill Golf Group 192
Titanium Square Jl. Raya Bogor, Pasar Rebo East Jakarta PT Titanium Property 725
Northern Ancol Residence Ancol North Jakarta Jaya Ancol 800
La Venue - South Tower Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta PT Bintang Rajawali (Sinar Mas Group) 341
Botanica Apartment Simprug, Kebayoran Baru South Jakarta Pikko Group 626
Woodland Park (Trambesi tower) Jl. Kalibata Raya South Jakarta PT. Pardika Wisthi Sarana 221
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Newly-Introduced Apartment During 1Q 2015
NAME OF DEVELOPMENT LOCATION REGIONEXPECTED
COMPLETION TIME
ESTIMATED PRICE/SQ M*
NO. OF UNITS REMARKS
South Hill Jl. Denpasar Raya CBD 2018 IDR37 - 39 million 611 Pre-sales
Green Pramuka (Nerine Tower) Jl. Pramuka Central Jakarta 2017 IDR16.7 million 1,000 Launched
Podomoro Park Jl. I Gusti Ngurah Rai East Jakarta 2018 IDR18.5 million 3,000 Introduced (NUP system **)
The Hamilton Jl. Teuku Nyak Arief South Jakarta 2017 IDR49.5 million 112 Introduced (NUP system**)
Pakubuwono Spring Jl. Teuku Nyak Arief South Jakarta 2018 IDR51 million 545 Launched
La Terrasse Jl. Deplu Raya No.12 South Jakarta 2018 IDR37 million 111 Launched
Branz Simatupang (2 tower) Jl. TB Simatupang South Jakarta 2018 IDR28 million 381 Introduced
Synthesis Residence Kemang Jl. Ampera Raya South Jakarta 2018 IDR29.5 million 1,100 Introduced (NUP system**)
19 Avenue (Tower B) Jl. Daan Mogot West Jakarta 2017 IDR10.5 million 416 Launched
Notes:*Price excludes 10% VAT**NUP (Indonesian term for Nomor Urut Pemesanan) or also known as priority pass is a new marketing strategy commonly applied by reputable developers to gauge the interest of potential buyer in the initial offering
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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As of 1Q 2015, there are 7,276 units at either newly-introduced or newly-launched projects, which are mainly located in South Jakarta, representing 53% of the total units. Among the districts in South Jakarta, TB Simatupang remains in the spotlight as can be seen by the growing number of office developments that drive the growth of apartment development in the surrounding area.
The supply of new apartment units during 2015 is projected to be substantial, i.e. 29,451, should all projects be completed. All in all, the total projected units that will come into the market from 2015 to 2018 will be 80,881 new units, mainly supplied in West Jakarta with 23% of the total supply, followed by East Jakarta and South Jakarta with 22 and 20%, respectively. Typically, apartment development in West Jakarta is characterised by massive unit projects targeting the middle-low income segment, offering small units in order to make prices affordable. The units of these apartment projects typically come with areas from 22 sq m for studio units to 70 - 80 sq m for 3-bedroom units. On the other hand, East Jakarta will see abundant new projects in the next two to three years, mainly coming from two projects, i.e. Green Signature and Bassura City, which are located in Cawang and Cipinang, respectively.
The Distribution of Future Apartment Developments in Several Regions of Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Uni
ts
CBD Central Jakarta South Jakarta
North Jakarta East Jakarta West Jakarta
New Supply Pipeline (2015 - 2019)APARTMENT NAME LOCATION REGION NO. OF UNITS
2015
The Grove (Empyreal + Masterpiece) Jl. HR Rasuna Said CBD 438
Ciputra World - Luxurious Raffles Residences Jl. Prof Dr Satrio CBD 64
Setiabudi Sky Garden (tower 1) Jl. Karbela Selatan CBD 426
Setiabudi Sky Garden (tower 2) Jl. Karbela Selatan CBD 160
Elpis Residence Gunung Sahari Central Jakarta 790
Capitol Park Apartment (Tower T) Jl. Salemba Raya, Menteng Central Jakarta 727
Capitol Park Apartment (Tower U) Jl. Salemba Raya, Menteng Central Jakarta 976
The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (Aurora Tower) Jl. Benyamin Sueb Kemayoran Central Jakarta 522
The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (BellaVista Tower) Jl. Benyamin Sueb Kemayoran Central Jakarta 612
The H Residence Kemayoran (Amethyst) Jl. Rajawali Selatan Central Jakarta 800
The Royal Springhill (Lotus Tower) (1Q) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta 192
The Royal Springhill (Bouvardia Tower) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta 120
Casablanca East Residence (2 Twr) + Tower Dallas Jl. Pahlawan Revolusi East Jakarta 1,904
Titanium Square (1Q) Jalan Raya Bogor Kav. 27 Pasar Rebo East Jakarta 725
The H Residence MT Haryono East Jakarta 383
Bassura City (Tower Flamboyan) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 1,000
Bassura City (Tower Edelweiss) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 1,000
Bassura City (Tower Dahlia) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 1,000
Bassura City (Tower Alamanda) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 600
Bassura City (Tower Geranium) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 900
Teluk Intan (Tower Saphire) Jl. Teluk Gong North Jakarta 1,100
Pluit Seaview (Tower Maldives) Pluit North Jakarta 940
Pluit Seaview (Tower Belize) Pluit North Jakarta 300
Callia Apartment Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan North Jakarta 560
The Oak Tower (2 Towers) Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan North Jakarta 821
continued
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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APARTMENT NAME LOCATION REGION NO. OF UNITS
continued
Northern Ancol Residence (1Q) Ancol North Jakarta 800
Green Bay Pluit (Sea View) Jl. Pluit Karang Ayu North Jakarta 2,072
La Venue - South Tower (1Q) Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta 341
The Royal Olive Residence (was El Medina) Tower I Jl. Buncit Raya South Jakarta 225
Senopati Penthouse Jl. Senopati Kav 45 South Jakarta 63
Senopati Suites 2 Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 81
LA City Apartment (Tower A) Jl. Raya Lenteng Agung, Jagakarsa South Jakarta 980
La Maison Barito (Tower 1) Barito South Jakarta 80
Botanica Apartment (3 Towers) (1Q) Simprug, Kebayoran Baru South Jakarta 626
Woodland Park (Trambesi tower) (1Q) Jl. Kemukus No. 6, Fatahillah South Jakarta 221
1 Park Avenue (3 Towers) Jl. KHM Syafi'I Hadzami South Jakarta 279
Nine Residence Warung Buncit South Jakarta 246
Providence Park Jl. Kalimaya - Iskandar Muda South Jakarta 114
Kencana Residence Jl. Sultan Iskandar Muda South Jakarta 173
Izzara Apartment (South and North Tower) TB. Simatupang South Jakarta 542
The Aspen Peak at Admiralty Jl. Fatmawati South Jakarta 644
Niffaro Apartment (Ebony Tower) Jl. Kalibata Raya South Jakarta 288
Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector 1) Jl. Siaga Raya South Jakarta 44
Metro Park Residence Kebon Jeruk West Jakarta 1,451
St. Moritz (New Presidential Tower) Jl. Puri Indah West Jakarta 159
Satu8 Residence Jl. Pilar Komp. Delta, Kedoya West Jakarta 174
Belmont Residence (Tower Montblanc) (1Q) Jl. Meruya Ilir West Jakarta 350
The Nest Apartment Jl. Raden Saleh Raya, Meruya Utara West Jakarta 1,100
Green Palm Residence @ Puri Jl. Kosambi West Jakarta 1,000
19 Avenue Apartment 9 (Tower A) Daan Mogot West Jakarta 338
2016
The Residence (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 119
The Orchad Satrio (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 349
Sudirman Suites Jl. Sudirman CBD 380
Gayanti City (2 Towers) Jl. Gatot Subroto CBD 318
T - Plaza Residence (Tower A) Jl. Penjernihan I Kav.1 Pejompongan Central Jakarta 307
Sentosa Residence Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 687
Sudirman Hill Residence Jl. Karet Pasar Baru Central Jakarta 255
The Grreen Pramuka (Tower Orchid) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Grreen Pramuka (Tower Penelope) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Green Pramuka (Tower Scarlet) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
Capitol Suites Jl. Prapatan Raya Central Jakarta 327
The Royal Springhill (Bulgari Tower) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta 192
Holland Village (Phase II) Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 230
Signature Park Grande Jl. MT. Haryono East Jakarta 1,100
Bassura City (Tower Cattleya) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 600
East Park Apartment (Tower C) Jl. KRT Radjiman East Jakarta 550
Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Tosca) Pulo Gebang East Jakarta 133
Pluit Seaview (Tower Ibiza) Pluit North Jakarta 500
Pluit Seaview (Tower Bahama) Pluit North Jakarta 650
La Venue - North Tower Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta 253
Kemang Village (The Bloomington) Jl. P Antasari South Jakarta 150
continued
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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APARTMENT NAME LOCATION REGION NO. OF UNITS
continuation
Senopati Suites 3 Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 54
Pakubuwono Terrace Grand Tower Kebayoran Lama South Jakarta 435
District 8 (Tower Eternity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 400
District 8 (Tower Infinity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 280
Lexington Rersidence Pondok Pinang South Jakarta 275
Apartment Pejaten Park Residence Jl. Warung Buncit Raya No.21 South Jakarta 560
Four Winds Jl. Permata Hijau Raya No.1 South Jakarta 122
Bellevue Place MT Haryono, Tebet South Jakarta 240
Kebayoran Icon Jl. Ciledug Raya South Jakarta 256
Sapphire Residence Lebak Bulus South Jakarta 37
St Moritz (The New Ambassador Suite Tower) Jl. Puri Indah Kembangan West Jakarta 200
The Windsor (Tower II) Jl. Puri Indah West Jakarta 164
Gianetti Apartment Jl. Kebon Jeruk Raya, Kemanggisan West Jakarta 500
Gallery West Jl. Panjang No 5 West Jakarta 280
Belmont Residence (TowerAthena) Jl. Meruya Ilir West Jakarta 193
Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower A) Puri Mansion West Jakarta 900
Madison Park Tanjung Duren West Jakarta 1,200
Veranda Jl. Pesanggrahan Raya, Kembangan West Jakarta 174
2017
Domaine Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav 1 CBD 186
Verde Two (Tower East) Jl. Rasuna Said CBD 182
Anandamaya Residences (3 towers) Jl. Jend Sudirman CBD 500
Central 88 (2 Towers) Jl. Trembesi, Kemayoran Central Jakarta 612
Menteng Park Jl. Cikini Raya No.79 Central Jakarta 756
Holland Village Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 400
Royal Suites Kemayoran Central Jakarta 450
The Green Pramuka (Tower Nerine) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
Green Signature Apartment Jl. MT. Haryono East Jakarta 800
Podomoro Park Jl. I Gusti Ngurah Rai, Klender East Jakarta 3,000
Bassura City (Tower Jasmine) 2 tower Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 2,000
Bassura City (Tower Heliconia) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 700
La Terrasse Jl. Deplu Raya No.12 South Jakarta 111
The Foresque Pasar Minggu, Ragunan South Jakarta 660
The Langham Residences Senopati South Jakarta 57
The Batik @ Pejaten Jl. Siaga Raya South Jakarta 200
La Foret Vivante Jl. Limo, Permata Hijau South Jakarta 253
Selatan 8 (Tower Sultan) Kebayoran Lama South Jakarta 336
The Hamilton Jl. KHM Syafi'I Hadzami South Jakarta 112
Puri Orchad (3 Tower) Jl Raya Adicipta West Jakarta 3,000
Maqna Residence Jl. Meruya Ilir No. 88 West Jakarta 312
Vittoria Residence (3 tower) Jl. Daan Mogot West Jakarta 1,100
Wang Residence Jl. Panjang No 18 West Jakarta 250
Taman Anggrek Residence (6 towers) Tanjung Duren West Jakarta 3,000
19 Avenue Apartment (Tower B) Daan Mogot West Jakarta 416
Regatta London Tower Jl. Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta 186
continued
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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APARTMENT NAME LOCATION REGION NO. OF UNITS
continuation
2018
Verde Two (Tower West) Jl. Rasuna Said CBD 152
Lavie Jl. Denpasar Raya CBD 320
South Hill Jl. Denpasar Raya CBD 611
Le' Parc Jl. Thamrin CBD 100
Regent Residences (tower 1) Semanggi CBD 100
Bassura City (Jasmine Tower) Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 400
Bassura City (Haleconia Tower) Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 400
Core Sky Residence Pulo Gebang East Jakarta 282
Sahid Garden Residence Ciracas East Jakarta 476
Gold Coast Apartment (Atlantic Tower) Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta 568
Regatta Apartment (Tower New York) Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta 186
Sedayu City (Tower Berlin) Jl. Pegangsaan Dua Raya North Jakarta 912
The Kensington Royal Suites (4 Tower) Kelapa Gading North Jakarta 790
Jaya Ancol Seafront - Oceana Tower Pademangan, Ancol North Jakarta 524
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Angelo) Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta 350
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Bella) Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta 350
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Milano) Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta 350
Pondok Indah Residences (3 Towers) Pondok Indah South Jakarta 880
Selatan 8 (Tower Prabu) Jl. Raya Ulujami South Jakarta 344
One Otium Residence Jl. Pangeran Antasari No.8 South Jakarta 160
45 Antasari (2 Tower) Antasari South Jakarta 1,924
Arzuria Apartment Jl. Tendean South Jakarta 210
Pakubuwono Spring (2 towers) Jl. Teuku Nyak Arief No.9 South Jakarta 545
Branz Simatupang (2 tower) TB. Simatupang South Jakarta 381
Synthesis Residence Kemang Jl. Ampera Raya South Jakarta 1,100
Ciputra International Puri Indah (Tower Amsterdam) Puri Indah West Jakarta 412
Grand Madison Tanjung Duren West Jakarta 300
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Rosewood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta 104
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Greenwood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta 126
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Oakwood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta 117
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Sherwood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta 122
Apartemen Taman Permata Buana Taman Permata Buana West Jakarta 550
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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DemandFollowing a downturn trend in the previous quarter, the sales of strata-title apartments, particularly in the primary market, continued to record slow absorption. This slow market situation was highlighted by low GDP growth and a rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, which affected the overall economy of Indonesia, particularly by lowering the purchasing power of the middle class. The weakening local currency against the US dollar has made construction costs more expensive, particularly for upper- to luxury-class apartments, as 30 to 40% of the material components are imported goods. Furthermore, the abundance of supply puts the overall market in a tough situation since there are about 80,000 units (during 2015 - 2018) being marketed. In view of this, we expect to see a further softening in the strata-title apartment market throughout 2015.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Take-up Rates Performance of Existing and Under Construction Projects
AVERAGE TAKE-UP RATES 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ
Existing Projects 95.6% 95.7% 0.10%
Pre-Sales rate of Under Construction Projects
72.1% 68.4% -3.70%
Average 87.00% 85.50% -1.50%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Take-up Rates Performance of Existing Projects in Three Major Areas
TAKE-UP EXISTING PROJECTS 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ
CBD 99.3% 99.3% 0.0%
South Jakarta 97.9% 97.6% -0.3%
Non-Prime area 93.7% 94.0% 0.3%
As of 1Q 2015, the overall average take-up rate for strata-title apartments (both existing and under-construction projects) in Jakarta was 85.5%, down slightly from the previous quarters 87%. The table above shows that existing apartment projects in South Jakarta experienced a decrease in the take-up rates from the previous quarter, while the non-prime area posted an increase of 0.3% from the previous quarter but experienced a drop for the under-construction projects. On the other hand, the take-up rates for existing projects in the CBD apartment market remain the same as the previous quarter, at 99.3%.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Take-up Rates Performance of Future Projects in Three Major Areas
TAKE-UP EXISTING PROJECTS 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ
CBD 88.3% 83.9% -4.4%
South Jakarta 78.0% 68.6% -9.4%
Non-Prime area 69.4% 67.1% -2.3%
The pre-sales activity of under-construction projects underwent a declining trend in all regions of Jakarta. The take-up rate in South Jakarta experienced the lowest drop, mostly due to the abundant supply of newly-introduced or launched projects in the last three years. Similar to South Jakarta, the pre-sales rate in the CBD area also experienced a declining sales rate because most of the projects saw slower absorption than in 2014. The sales performance of under-construction projects is very much affected by the influx of new projects. For example, one new middle-upper class project entering the pre-sales stage put downward pressure on the overall take-up rate during January - March 2015. Similarly, the continued influx of new projects in the non-prime area (including Central, North, West and East Jakarta) has resulted in a downswing of the take-up rate by 2.3% compared to the previous quarter.
Asking PriceDespite the lowering sales performance during the quarter, average asking prices for strata-title apartments continued to demonstrate an upward trend. As of 1Q 2015, the average asking price of apartments in Jakarta rose by 3.7% QoQ to IDR28.7 million/sq m. Based on location, the new apartments in non-prime locations posted the highest price increase, followed by South Jakarta and the CBD area. Benefiting from a relatively lower price compared to South Jakarta and the CBD area, some projects in non-prime areas are enjoying a good take-up rate and that has helped the average price to improve. On the other hand, the market perceives that the current prices of apartments in the CBD have reached a peak.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Average Asking Price of Apartment per Sq mASKING PRICE/SQ M 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ
CBD 43,472,842 44,135,684 1.5%
South Jakarta 32,033,471 32,713,013 2.1%
Non-Prime area 20,764,022 21,212,815 2.2%
The pace of apartment prices in 2014 slowed compared to the aggressive price growth in 2011 - 2013. The slowdown is in line with the governments expectations, as they are very concerned with the persistently soaring prices. This trend is expected to continue throughout 2015 as the government is planning to further tighten the real estate market by imposing taxes on a broader range of the property segment.
Bank Indonesias target to curb the growth of property prices by tightening the LTV (Loan to Value) regulation has shown results. As on the chart below, the average QoQ changes of apartment prices in 2014 has been relatively slower than the strong growth since 2012 - 2013. During 2011 - 2013, the average QoQ changes in apartment prices increased by 3.34%.
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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The trend of slowing demand is likely to persist in the upcoming quarters. To anticipate this, developers continue to offer financing incentives like cash instalment payments and in some cases, buyers are not required to make a down payment. This payment scheme has become a preferable method of paying since it does not require bank approval and offers flexibility to manage the cash flow. Furthermore, developers, especially those having strong working capital, are confident in offering longer cash instalments for up to 60 months.
Payment Method Composition in Purchasing Apartment
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Mortgage26%
Cash Installment
58%
Hard Cash16%
QoQ Changes of Average Asking Prices of Apartment in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Apartment For Lease
SupplyAfter Ascott Kuningan became available in the last quarter, there was no new supply of apartments for lease during 1Q 2015. As such, the total supply of both serviced and non-serviced apartments in Jakarta remained at 8,519 units. The majority of apartments for lease in Jakarta are designed to meet expatriate standards with spacious sizes, and therefore these projects are mainly found in the CBD and South Jakarta for two main reasons, i.e. the locations are in close proximity to the commercial area and are still in the catchment area of reputable international schools.
The Distribution of Apartment for Lease by Area
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
CBD44%
South Jakarta35%
Non-prime21%
The apartment for lease market in Jakarta was mainly dominated by two global brands of serviced apartment operator, i.e. The Ascott Limited and Frasers Hospitality. The Ascott Limited has three brands in operation, Ascott Residence, Somerset and Citadines. Frasers Hospitality has only Fraser Residence but in the upcoming years, Fraser Hospitality will have Fraser Suites (Ciputra World II), Fraser Place (Setiabudi Sky Garden) and Capri by Fraser.
A strong operator brand for serviced apartments is a crucial factor for differentiation from other products and to guarantee a global service level. Several major serviced apartment operators have multiple brands to serve different market segments.
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Apartment | Colliers International
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Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research and Fraser Cachet (Issue 18)
List of Serviced Apartments Managed by Ascott and Frasers
NAME OF DEVELOPMENT YEAR OF OPERATION OPERATOR LOCATION TYPE
The Ascott Residence 1995 Ascott Limited Kebon Kacang Serviced Apartment
Somerset Grand Citra 1996 Ascott Limited Satrio Serviced Apartment
Countrywoods Residence 1996 Ascott Limited WR Supratman, Ciputat Serviced Apartment
Somerset Berlian 2006 Ascott Limited Permata Hijau Serviced Apartment
Fraser Residence Sudirman 2011 Frasers Hospitality Setiabudi Serviced Apartment
Citadines Rasuna Jakarta 2013 Ascott Limited Rasuna Said Condotel
Fraser Residence Menteng 2014 Frasers Hospitality Menteng Serviced Apartment
Ascott Kuningan Jakarta 2014 Ascott Limited Satrio Serviced Apartment
Fraser Place at Setiabudi Sky Garden 2015 Frasers Hospitality Karbela Selatan Serviced Apartment
Somerset Kencana Jakarta 2015 Ascott Limited KHM Syafi'I Hadzami Condotel
Fraser Suites at Ciputra World Jakarta 2 2016 Frasers Hospitality Satrio Serviced Apartment
Fraser Suites Kebon Melati 2018 Frasers Hospitality Kebon Melati Serviced Apartment
Capri by Fraser 2018 Frasers Hospitality TB Simatupang Condotel
OccupancyThe apartment for lease market experienced a minor occupancy decrease of 0.4% QoQ to 75.3%. Leasing activity during the initial period of 2015 was relatively stagnant highlighted with come and go tenants and the absence of new enquiries from expatriates. This figure also marked a 0.9% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2014. Moreover, it should be noted that a large number of new middle-upper to upper class strata-title apartments is likely to put downward pressure on occupancy levels of apartments for lease. Generally, individually owned apartment units are offered furnished, which meets expatriate standards and taste.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
The QoQ Occupancy Performance for Non-Serviced Apartment
AREA 4Q 2015 1Q 2015 QoQ change
CBD 84.5% 84.6% 0.1%
South Jakarta 77.1% 76.7% -0.4%
Non-Prime area 74.9% 74.8% -0.1%
The QoQ Occupancy Performance for Serviced Apartment
AREA 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ change
CBD 78.7% 76.1% -2.6%
South Jakarta 74.6% 75.5% 0.9%
Non-Prime area 51.8% 53.4% 1.6%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
New enquiries were reportedly limited, with only a few apartments in South Jakarta enjoying an increase in occupancy during the reviewed quarter. Softening demand during this quarter was mostly limited to inquiries from western expatriates. The recent plunge in oil prices has impacted the overall sluggish performance of apartments for lease in Jakarta as some companies related to the oil business reduced the number of their expatriates working in Jakarta. For some years, the oil and gas industry has consistently driven the leasing market, mainly for western expatriates.
To cope with this situation, some apartments for lease (both serviced and non-serviced) offered more flexible leasing terms and payment to entice tenants, allowing for short-term leasing. Previously, the apartments for lease require a minimum lease term of six months paid in advance. Recently, landlords are offering monthly accommodation that can be paid monthly.
Rental RatesThe average monthly rent of apartments for lease in Jakarta persisted in its decline, falling 2% QoQ to USD21.8/sq m/month. The overall downward trend in the rental rate was triggered by sluggish demand in the previous year, which caused management adjust rents to maintain the occupancy level.
Several apartments for lease are offered in local currency, however with the weakening rupiah against the US dollar and that the overall rental rates presented here are in US dollars, the overall figure dropped somewhat. During the tenants market in the coming period, rents are expected to soften during 2015 and this will characterise the whole leasing market.
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Average Rental Rates of Apartment for Lease
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
USD 0.00
USD 3.00
USD 6.00
USD 9.00
USD 12.00
USD 15.00
USD 18.00
USD 21.00
USD 24.00
USD 27.00
USD 30.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
Rent
al R
ates
/sq
m/m
onth
CBD South Jakarta (inc. Non-Prime Area)
As mentioned above, some serviced apartments in the CBD raised their rental rates by 3 to 5%. One serviced apartment building adjusted the rental rate quite significantly and thus impacted the drop of overall rental rates in the CBD. On the other hand, apartments for lease in South Jakarta (including non-prime area), which mostly consist of non-serviced apartments, kept the rental rate the same as in the previous quarter. In addition, since many non-serviced apartments quote the rental rate in rupiah, the strengthening US dollar impacted the overall rental rates in US dollars.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Average Rental Rates of Apartment for LeaseAREA 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 QoQ change
CBD USD28.58 USD27.81 -2.7%
South Jakarta (including non-prime area)
USD15.94 USD15.83 -0.7%
Concluding ThoughtThe government plans to introduce a new scheme of luxury goods tax on residential property would adversely impact property sales, particularly in the middle segment. Previously, a 5% luxury tax was expected to be imposed on property valued at IDR10 billion but a revision is pending to reduce this to IDR2 billion. The planned revisions would encompass a much wider range of property sales, as a IDR2 billion apartment in Jakarta is currently considered as middle to middle-upper segment, which comprises about 23% of the total existing apartments. On the other hand, it is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the upper to luxury class apartments, since this kind of buyer will pay for a high-quality product and is not relatively price sensitive.
The apartments for lease market is expected to remain quiet in the upcoming quarters due to the current issues regarding an additional regulation that will require foreigners to master the Indonesian language before they are able to obtain a work permit. This regulation may hamper the inflow of a number of expatriates coming to Indonesia. In contrast, the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community should create a business momentum that will gradually improve the Jakarta apartments for lease market.
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Supply
Jakarta
Jakarta Shopping Center Cumulative Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
For the last five years, the growth of retail space in Jakarta has been slack and this will likely continue in 2015 - 2016 when there will be less than 100,000 sq m of additional supply contributed by three shopping centres. With no new shopping centres operating as of 1Q 2015, the cumulative supply of retail space in shopping centres in Jakarta remained as it was in 2014 at 4.43 million sq m.
Despite the limited number, Jakarta is expected to see more shopping centres in operation after 2016. It is projected that there will be around 500,000 sq m of new retail space by 2018. Other than shopping centres that are currently under construction, at least five future shopping centres, i.e. Mal Puri Indah 2, Pondok Indah Mal 3, AEON Cakung, Shopping Mall at Podomoro Park and Holland Village Mall are preparing to start construction in 2015. Some of those have confirmed that they will break ground within the first half of 2015.
Experienced developers are still the main contributors of additional supply of shopping centres in Jakarta. Agung Podomoro Land (APL) and Pondok Indah Group will become active contributors of new shopping centres in Jakarta. They will provide around 48% of the total additional supply during 2015 - 2018.
RETAIL SECTOR
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Existing and Future Retail Space in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
CBD
Central Jakarta
South Jakarta
North Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
sq m
Existing Supply up to 2014 Future Supply in 2015 - 2018
While proceeding with the construction of New Harco Plaza, Agung Podomoro is preparing to launch Podomoro Park in Buaran, East Jakarta. Similar to their previous project (Podomoro City in West Jakarta), the shopping mall in Podomoro Park will be part of an integrated development together with apartments.
Pondok Indah Group plans to build two new shopping centres, i.e. Puri Indah Mal 2 in West Jakarta and Pondok Indah Mal 3 South Jakarta. Both malls are expansions of existing projects. Being announced several years ago, these projects will start to be developed in 2015.
Jakarta Cumulative Supply Based on Marketing Scheme
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
For Sale For Lease
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Retail | Colliers International
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AEON Mall BSD seemingly will be the sole shopping centre in greater Jakarta in 2015. Construction progress on it has been quite significant and it is ready to open as the first AEON Mall in Indonesia around mid-2015.
A joint venture of AEON with a local developer will build 20 shopping malls in Indonesia over the next eight years. Besides BSD City, AEON will develop more malls in the greater Jakarta area like Kota Deltamas in Bekasi Regency, Bogor and Sentul. It is expected that those developments will be completed and opened in 2018.
Without any new shopping centres being introduced this quarter, the cumulative supply was identical to the previous quarter at 2.91 million sq m. It is expected that the greater Jakarta retail market will see more new space than Jakarta with a projected 600,000 sq m of additional supply coming into the market by 2018. However, as of 1Q 2015, construction progress is only seen at retail centres that are expected to begin operations in 2015 - 2016. This only represents 25% of the total additional supply in 2015 - 2018.
Larger additional supply in 2017 - 2018 will be contributed mostly by shopping centres located adjacent to or integrated into residences, both vertical and landed houses.
Greater Jakarta Area (BoDeTaBek - Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi)
BoDeTaBek Shopping Center Cumulative Supply
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
Existing Supply Annual Supply
Existing and Future Retail Space in BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000
Bogor
Depok
Tangerang
Bekasi
sq m
Existing Supply up to 2014 Future Supply in 2015 - 2018
Overall, Jakarta and the greater area is anticipating additional 27 new shopping centres that will bring 1.1 million sq m of retail space by 2018. Bekasi and Tangerang will be the two largest contributors with around 500,000 sq m of projected additional retail space at 10 shopping centres by 2018. These 10 projected shopping centres will bring the cumulative supply in each of those areas to more than a million sq m by 2018.
In addition to Bekasi, which will have seven future shopping centres, Bogor will also see more additional retail space of around 100,000 sq m by 2018, as they are only neighbourhood category shopping centres.
BoDeTaBek Cumulative Supply Based on Marketing Scheme
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
sq m
For Sale For Lease
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Retail | Colliers International
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Despite the lower numbers, Tangerang will see larger additional supply than Bogor, mostly due to the fact that future shopping centres in Tangerang are regional shopping centres larger than 30,000 sq m.
In Jakarta, three regions including Central, South and West Jakarta are areas actively contributing new shopping centres. West Jakarta will be the largest contributor by providing 150,000 sq m of additional supply by 2018.
New Supply PipelineSHOPPING CENTERS DEVELOPER LOCATION REGION NLA (SQ M) STATUS
Jakarta
2015
Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall Agung Sedayu Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta 30,000 Under Construction
Shopping Mall @ Pancoran Agung Podomoro Pancoran South Jakarta 8,000 Under Construction
2016
Neo SOHO Mall (Podomoro City) Agung Podomoro Slipi West Jakarta 40,000 Under Construction
2017
Mal Puri Indah 2 Pondok Indah Group Puri Indah West Jakarta 50,000 In Planning
Grand Cipulir Priamanaya Cipulir South Jakarta 30,000 In Planning
Holland Vilage Mall Lippo Group Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 40,000 In Planning
New Harco Plaza Agung Podomoro Glodok West Jakarta 60,000 Under Construction
Mall @ Green Pramuka City Duta Paramindo Sejahtera Pramuka North Jakarta 30,000 In Planning
Pondok Indah Mall 3 Pondok Indah Group Pondok Indah South Jakarta 60,000 In Planning
2018
Mall at The City Centre Kencana Graha Global Mas Mansyur Central Jakarta 65,000 In Planning
Shopping Mall at Podomoro Park Agung Podomoro Buaran East Jakarta 40,000 In Planning
AEON Mall Garden City AEON & Sinarmas Cakung East Jakarta 90,000 In Planning
BoDeTaBek
2015
AEON Mall BSD AEON Serpong Tangerang 75,000 Under Construction
2016
Bekasi Trade Centre 2 Gapura Prima Bulak Kapal Bekasi 56,000 Under Construction
Metropolitan Mall Cileungsi Metropolitan Land Cileungsi Bogor 25,000 Under Construction
2017
Vivo Sentul Lifestyle Megapolitan Cibinong Bogor 30,000 In Planning
Vivo Sentul Trademall Megapolitan Cibinong Bogor 13,000 In Planning
Living World Jababeka Kawan Lama Jababeka Bekasi 18,000 In Planning
Plaza Indonesia Jababeka Plaza Indonesia Jababeka Bekasi 20,000 In Planning
Hollywood Central Graha Buana Cikarang Cikarang Bekasi 25,000 In Planning
Embarcadero Lippo Group Bintaro Tangerang 40,000 In Planning
Grand Dhika City Mall Adhi Persada Property Bekasi Bekasi 24,000 Under Construction
continued
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SHOPPING CENTERS DEVELOPER LOCATION REGION NLA (SQ M) STATUS
2018
AEON Mall Deltamas AEON Deltamas Bekasi 90,000 In Planning
AEON Mall Bogor AEON Cibinong Bogor 20,000 In Planning
AEON Mall Sentul AEON Sentul Bogor 15,000 In Planning
Pesona Square Menara Depok Depok Depok 30,000 In Planning
Kota Harapan Indah Hasana Dharma Permai Bekasi Bekasi 51,000 In Planning
Lippo Grand Mall Lippo Group Karawaci Tangerang 120,000 In Planning
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Demand and OccupancySince the second half of 2014, the occupancy rate of shopping centres in Jakarta continues to increase QoQ. As of 1Q 2015, several home furnishing and fashion retailers contributed to increase the occupancy to 86.8%. Jysk and H&M are foreign retailers that have entered the Jakarta market around 2013 - 2014. Jysk, a Danish retail chain selling household goods such as mattresses, furniture and interiors, will be very expansive in opening new outlets in 2015. This retailer opened three stores, two of which are in Jakarta. H&M, will also open more stores in Jakarta. Later, the Sweden-based retailer will open a store at a mall in Pluit, North Jakarta.
The projected occupancy of shopping centres in Jakarta is expected to increase at least until the next quarter. Some tenants like home furnishings, fashion, department store and supermarket seemingly are in the pipeline to open new stores. When these pre-committed tenants open, retail space in Jakarta will become limited.
Cumulative Supply, Demand and Occupancy in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2010 2012 2014
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
In 2014, quite a few shopping centres had large vacant spaces due to their transformation by upgrading tenancy layouts and faades. Apart from that, Jakarta also witnessed some dying malls. With poor performance at these malls, some tenants anticipate pulling out due to lower numbers of visitor and low transaction volume. The decreasing performance of those shopping centres will lead to a weakening occupancy of the overall Jakarta area. Landlords should anticipate this and look for a way to attract crowds to their malls.
Poorer performance was also recorded at middle to middle low class shopping centres that are categorised as trade malls. Occupancy levels at this class of shopping centres during 2014 continued to weaken. However, as of 1Q 2015, the occupancy at middle class shopping centres started climbing while at middle-low shopping centres it continued to decline.
Conversely, upper class, including premium, malls maintained a high level of average occupancy. Most shopping centres recorded new space absorption from 500 to 2,000 sq m that were taken by tenants, raising the occupancy of upper class shopping centres to 91.2% as of 1Q 2015.
Based on area (CBD and Outside CBD), the occupancy of shopping centres in the CBD was flat at 92% since the previous year. With no additional supply for at least three years ahead, tenant re-layout is the mostly activity found at shopping centres in the CBD. A renewal tenancy list is one way for landlords to attract a lot of visitors and maintain high occupancy rates. Currently, a luxury mall around Thamrin made small changes to their layout by relocating tenants from eX Plaza (a mall that stopped operating in the middle of 2014). To maintain the prestige, this mall had to select potential tenants to occupy the space mostly on the top floor. Another mall in Thamrin also did a re-layout due to the opening of a new department store, while a mall in South Jakarta is also discussing refreshing their tenancy mix.
After the declining trend in 2014, the average occupancy in the outside CBD climbed moderately QoQ to 84.6% as of 1Q 2015. On the contrary, South Jakarta saw a decreasing occupancy QoQ due to a large vacant space available at a shopping centre in the Cilandak area. This mall is in negotiations with some food and beverage stores to occupy the vacant space.
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The performance of newly operating shopping centres in 2013 - 2014 also helped move occupancy upwards in North, East and West Jakarta. As of 1Q 2015, the occupancy in North and East Jakarta were 83.7 and 87.4%, respectively. West Jakarta recorded
List of New Tenants (of more than 1,000 sq m) during 2015 in JakartaNAME OF TENANT TYPE OF RETAILER OPEN AT OPENING TIME
Jysk Home Furnishing Kuningan City March
Jysk Home Furnishing Pejaten Village March
XXI Entertainment Lippo Mall Puri March
H&M Fashion Emporium April
Matahari Dept. Store Pasaraya June
H&M Fashion Lippo Mall Puri June
Uniqlo Fashion PIK Mall July
Lotte Mart Supermarket PIK Mall July
Informa Home Furnishing PIK Mall July
Ranch Market Supermarket PIK Mall July
Golds Gym Entertainment Dharmawangsa Square July
Debenhams Dept. Store Lippo Mall Puri July
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing PIK Mall October
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing Mall of Indonesia November
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
lower occupancy than those two areas. The opening of stores at both newly operating and existing shopping centres maintained the occupancy in West Jakarta at 80.9%.
Annual Supply and Demand in Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
sq m
Annual Supply Annual Demand
The performance of some shopping centres that operated in 2013 - 2014 also had a positive good impact on the occupancy in greater Jakarta area, which climbed by 1.6% QoQ to 83.4% as of 1Q 2015. Some committed tenants opened their stores after those malls had been operating for two years. Similar to Jakarta, home furnishing retailers were a major contributor which helped maintain the occupancy in greater Jakarta high since the second half of 2014. Jysk, Pongs, Informa and Ace Hardware have opened progressively as of 1Q 2015 at shopping centres in Depok and Tangerang.
Cumulative Supply, Demand and Occupancy in BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2010 2012 2014
sq m
Space Absorbed Vacant Space Occupancy
AEON Mall will be the sole shopping centre operating in 2015. AEON Mall is expected to lure visitors due to its Japanese mall concepts that are different from other operating malls It is confirmed that and AEON own brand supermarket and department store will occupy this mall, which is projected to officially open in 2Q 2015.
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Retail | Colliers International
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Occupancy Based on Region in BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Bogor Depok Tangerang Bekasi
Annual Supply and Demand in BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
sq m
Annual Supply Annual Demand
Committed Tenant in Future Shopping CentresNAME OF SHOPPING CENTERS PROJECTED COMPLETION LOCATION RETAILERS
Jysk Home Furnishing Margo City February
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing Bintaro XChange May
XXI Entertainment Aeon Mall June
H&M Fashion Aeon Mall June
Uniqlo Fashion Aeon Mall June
Informa Home Furnishing Bintaro XChange May
Ace Hardware Home Furnishing BTC City (BTC 2) 2016
Informa Home Furnishing BTC City (BTC 2) 2016
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
List of New Tenant of More Than 1,000 sq m During 2015 and 2016 in Jakarta and BoDeTaBek
SHOPPING CENTERS PROJECTED COMPLETION LOCATION RETAILERS
JakartaPIK Mall 2015 Kapuk, North Jakarta Blitz Megaplex, Muji, Gold Gym, Lotte Mart, Ace Hardware, Fun World, Ranch Market
Neo Soho Mall 2016 Slipi, West Jakarta Central Department Store
BoDeTaBekAeon Mall 2015 BSD City, Tangerang Jysk, Aeon Supermarket, Aeon Department Store, H&M, Uniqlo
Bekasi Trade Center 2 2016 Bulak Kapal, Bekasi Hypermart, Ace Hardware
Metropolitan Mall Cileungsi 2016 Cileungsi, Bekasi Matahari, Gramedia, XXISource: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
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Space Absorption in the Future Shopping Centers
in Jakarta
0 60,000 120,000 180,000 240,000
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
sq mAbsorbed Vacant Space
in BoDeTaBek
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0 80,000 160,000 240,000 320,000
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
sq mAbsorbed Vacant Space
Based on committed demand, future shopping centres in 2015 - 2016 both in Jakarta and the greater Jakarta area have been 50% absorbed as of 1Q 2015. Some committed tenants are ready to open at shopping centres that are projected to begin operating in 2015 - 2016.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Average Asking Rents and Service Charges
Jakarta
Asking Base Rent (Sq m/month) Based on Class
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 0
IDR 100,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 900,000
IDR 1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Upper Class Middle Low Average
Most shopping centres in Jakarta saw a similar range of asking base rents YoY. As of 1Q 2015, the average base rent of shopping centres in Jakarta was IDR521,783/sq m/month, up by 6.1% YoY. The asking base rent of a typical floor was IDR359,706/sq m/month while the highest rent achieved is typically found on the ground floor where the average rent was, on average, IDR674,741/sq m/month. Although the asking base rent was relatively flat,