Compatibility of the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective with Renewable Energy, Energy Access, and Climate
Mitigation Targets Jay Gregg1, Olexandr Balyk1, Ola Solér1, Simone La Greca1,
Cristian Hernán Cabrera Pérez1, Tom Kober2
1Systems Analysis, Technical University of Denmark
2Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
Motivation
• Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) o Double energy efficiency (reduce global energy
intensity of GDP by half) o Double global renewable energy share (18 to 36%) o Transition away from traditional biomass and
ensure electricity access to everyone o …by 2030
• Reduce CO2 emissions, prevent >2°C warming
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
Method
Changes in:Renewable Energy Profile
Energy Consumption,GHG Emissions
CostsAlternative Scenario
-Renewable Energy Targets for 2010-2030
-Energy Intensity Targetsfor 2010-2030
-Increased Energy Access & Phase-out Traditional Biomass
Current: -Carbon price
-Renewable Energy Profile-Energy efficiency trends-Traditional biomass use
-Technology profiles
ETSAP-TIAMReferenceScenario
Assessment of Regional Potentials
Sector & Subsector Potentials
ETSAP-TIAM
Scenarios Scenario
Regional EIIR
Global EIIR 1.3%
Global EIIR 2.6%
Regional RE IRENA
Ref
Regional RE IRENA
REMap
Global RE Doubling SE4ALL
Energy Access
i. Base ii. RefRegional fixed fixed iii. RefGlobal fixed fixed iv. RE fixed fixed v. EE fixed fixed vi. EE&RE fixed fixed vii. EE&RE&EA fixed fixed included viii. EEfree&REflex min ix. EEflex&REfree min x. EEflex&REflex min min xi. EEflex&REflex&EA min min included
EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
Scenario Details • Ref:
o -1.3% CAGR in Primary Energy Intensity of GDP o RE IRENA reference (IRENA, 2016)
• EE:
o -2.6% CAGR in Energy Intensity • RE:
o IRENA REmap 2030 Realistic Potential (IRENA, 2016) o SE4ALL RE doubling: 36% global RE share of Final Energy
(including traditional biomass) • EA:
o Complete phase out of traditional biomass & at least 750 kWh/year/capita electricity consumption in all regions
IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in Energy Intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy EA = Energy Access
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
AFR Africa
AUS Australia & NZ
CAN Canada
CHI China
CSA Central and South America
EEU Eastern Europe
FSU Former Soviet Union
IND India
JPN Japan
MEA Middle East
MEX Mexico
ODA Other Developing Asia
SKO South Korea
USA United States
WEU Western Europe
Climate Module
Atm. Conc.ΔForcing ΔTemp
Used for reporting &
setting targets
Biomass Potential
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)Extraction Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary Transformation
OPEC/NON-OPEC regrouping
Power and Heat Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production and distribution
End Use Fuels
Industrial Service
CompositionAuto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon captureCH4 options Carbon
sequestrationTerrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELCELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***COA***
Industrial Tech.
Commercial Tech.
Transport Tech.
Residential Tech.
Agriculture Tech.
I***
I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELCIS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Energy Efficiency
• Historic Trends in Energy Intensity Improvement Rate (EIIR)
• Energy Intensity Pathway when SE4ALL objectives are achieved
SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
Historic Trends in Global EIIR
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%19
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Rate
of C
hang
e (%
/yea
r)
Annual Change
5-year average
10-year average
20-year average
5-year CAGR
10-year CAGR
20-year CAGR
GTF 10-year CAGR
GTF 20-year CAGR
EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, GTF = Global Tracking Framework
Regional Energy Intensity Pathways
EEflex&REflex&EA Scenario (SE4ALL Objectives Achieved)
Ambition of SE4ALL EE Target Region Average
Annual EIIR, 1990-2010
Historic Max EIIR, 1990-2010 (5- year rolling average)
Average Annual EIIR to meet SE4ALL EE objective
Greater than historic average?
Greater than historic max reduction over 5 year period?
Africa -0.9% -2.3% -1.7% YES Australia & NZ -1.3% -2.5% -2.8% YES YES Canada -1.4% -3.0% -0.9% China -4.3% -6.5% -3.9% Central & South America -0.6% -1.4% -1.7% YES YES Eastern Europe -3.0% -4.8% -2.5% Former Soviet Union -1.9% -5.5% -3.4% YES India -2.4% -3.4% -3.2% YES Japan -0.3% -1.8% -1.6% YES Middle East 1.0% -0.9% -3.1% YES YES Mexico -0.7% -2.4% -2.3% YES Other Developing Asia -1.1% -2.3% -2.7% YES YES South Korea -0.1% -2.4% -0.8% YES United States -1.7% -2.4% -2.4% YES equal Western Europe -1.2% -2.0% -1.7% YES Europe -1.5% -2.3% -1.6% YES Global 1 3% 2 0% 2 6% YES YES
Compatibility between EE and RE
• What is the effect on energy efficiency when the SE4ALL renewable energy objective is achieved?
• What is the effect on renewable energy when energy efficiency the SE4ALL objective is achieved?
EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
• Largest EE potential in China, FSU, and India
• RE target induces EE improvement
(~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective)
Regional EIIR
Energy Intensity, by Scenario
SE4ALL EE Objective
SE4ALL Reference
SE4ALL RE Objective (~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective)
SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy, by Scenario
SE4ALL RE Objective
IRENA Reference
IRENA REmap
SE4ALL EE Objective
(~ ½ way to SE4ALL RE Objective)
SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy
Compatibility of EA
• How does the Energy Access objective affect the renewable energy share of global final energy?
• What are the additional costs of achieving the Energy Access objective?
EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass
RE% by region and sector
EA reduces RE% in Africa, requiring greater RE in the developed world. EA reduces RE% in Residential, requiring more reductions in transport and industry.
EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass, RE% = Renewable share of final energy
Regional Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference
Sectoral Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference
CO2 Emissions
• How do the different SE4ALL objectives contribute to the climate change mitigation?
• What is relationship between costs and emissions reductions across scenarios?
SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
Emissions by Scenario
Emissions Versus Investment Costs
NPV = Net Present Value of investments 2010-2030, 5% discounting
General Conclusions • Achieving the SE4ALL EE objective on its own promotes RE
deployment half way to the SE4ALL RE objective. • …and vice versa • Taken alone, the EE objective reduces emissions more than
the RE objective, but is also more expensive. Both together reduce more than either alone, for only slightly more cost. i.e., it is cost effective to pursue EE and RE together.
• EA increases emissions slightly, and requires substantially more investment in the residential sectors of developing regions; transport and industry in developed regions.
• Achieving the SE4ALL objectives is compatible with keeping global warming under 2° (between 50 and 66% probability), but additional measures will likely be necessary.
EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative
Sustainable Development Conclusions
• From a global cost optimization point of view, it is generally cheapest to replace traditional biomass with fossil-based energy.
• Linear models (with exogenous GDP) lack the capability to fully describe PESTLEG barriers, as well as the economic dynamics of providing energy access.
What is the effect of an improved energy infrastructure on GDP and energy consumption? • Area for future research
GDP = Gross Domestic Product PESTLEG = political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and governmental