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Creating value from uncertainty
www.Broadleaf.com.au
Complexity and project risk management PMI Melbourne June 2016
Presented by Dr Stephen Grey
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Does complexity affect you?
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Do you know• How to recognise it?• What to do about it?
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Complexity creates risk!
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Does it?Systems scienceModellingForecastingDetailed planningTight change controlObjective control
Complexity scienceSensingContinuous
readjustmentSetting the envelopeCo-evolution
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Complexity
How to recognise it
Why it matters
What to do about it
Relationship to risk
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Recognising complexity
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One view of complexity is seen in the way purpose and patterns can be discerned in the mass behaviour of a large number of simple separate components of a system: flocks of birds, traffic flows, schools of fish
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The behaviour of flocks of birds shows us that mass behaviour can emerge from a large number of individuals interacting but it does not help a lot with understanding projects
Another approach is to look at the number of components in a system and how they are connected to one another –structural complexity
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There might be some applications for structural complexity but it is a complicated form of analysis and again not especially useful for human systems.
The most useful approach comes from looking at the people in a system and how they interact with their context.
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Alice’s project
Executive
$
Intentions &aspirations
Context
Complexity
JanJun
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If it wasn’t for the people involved …
Partially aligned intentions and aspirations
Alignment, diversity, fluidity
People can change the context
Stakeholders exercise influence
The context changes their intentions
As they see what is going on and what is possible, they change what they want
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Why it matters
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Nothing new, I know how to fix that …
Stakeholder consultation
Scope definition
Change control
…
What made sense a month ago might not now
What makes sense now might not next month
Linear thinking can’t keep up
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Patterns and habits
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Balance
Get the job done!
Stay in touch and spot early signs of disturbance.
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Major disturbance to your work
60555045403530252015105
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If it lookedlike it might
happen again
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Get someexperts tolook at it
It will beobviouswhat to do
Feel our wayand keepoptions open
Be readyto respond
60555045403530252015105
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Get someexperts tolook at it
It will beobviouswhat to do
Feel our wayand keepoptions open
Be readyto respond
Poor legal advice,scope growth in
legal services
Forex variationcauses material
cost growth
Learning curveextended
Consultation triggered12mth extension
Delivery teammodify scope
Productivityless thanassumed
Regulatorychange
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Get someexperts tolook at it
It will beobviouswhat to do
Feel our wayand keepoptions open
Be readyto respond
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaos
Cynefin
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For more on the Cynefin framework and the large body of work that flows from it, see the Cognitive Edge web site, search for Cynefin on YouTube or ask me for references that I can email to you.
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What to do about it
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Principles
Keep options open
Exploit stakeholders
• Distributed input
• Granular insight
Disintermediation
• Link insights directly to decision makers
• Avoid expert analytical filtering
Anticipatory awareness
• Spot weak signals
Narrativecapture• Workshops• Web enabled
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SenseMaker™ is a product of Cognitive Edge that allows narrative capture to be used to gather insights from large numbers of people, over time if appropriate, and for patterns in the responses to be identified that assist in making sense of a system as it is now and is likely to develop.
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Two simple ideas
Work out which domain you are about to enter before starting
• Whole project
• Important parts
Where it is Complex, treat everything you do as much as a context update as it is a task completion
Complicated
Obvious
Complex
ChaosProcedure
AnalysisSense & respond
Impose order
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Risk and complexity
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Complexity causes risk?
Only if you let it
• Rigid structures
• Close off options early
• Trying to impose an outcome that might not fit
An approach designed for ordered behaviour will be swamped by a complex system
What approach will suit your project?
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Think about it!
Can an orderly approach be successful?• Stakeholders exercising influence
• Stakeholders shifting position
• Learning as we go
Is your project being disturbed by its environment or is it trying to impose itself on and environment that has its own ideas?• Disturbance demands adaptability
• Imposition generates push back
Can you work with your environment?
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Complexity is challenging
It doesn’t cause risk
The way we respond to itcauses risk!
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The closing cartoon is copyright, see
http://leunig.com.au/images/cartoons/how-to-get-through-it.jpg
for the original
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ContactDr Stephen Grey
Associate Director
+61 412 223 256
If you would like further information about this topic, please contact us.
For further information, visit www.Broadleaf.com.au
© 2016 Broadleaf Capital
International Pty Ltd.
All rights reserved.