Download - Conflict, Rationality, and Hope
Agenda
More TED! – Dan Gilbert▪ “Synthesizing Happiness”
Cognitive Conflict▪ Group Work
Rationality Hope
Bored/Inaction on a decision?
Create importance/urgency ▪ Think about risks involved▪ Imagine what happens if worst occurs?▪ “Lose” time
Create perceived uncertainty▪ …by getting creative about alternatives
Hyper-aware/paralyzed on a decision?
“Turn down heat” on importance/urgency ▪ Distancing▪ Put the problem in a friend’s shoes▪ Easier to see irrationality in others
▪ Schedule time for coffee/reflection▪ Time = better decisions
Combat complexity/uncertainty▪ …with cool tools you haven’t learned yet =(▪ External Memory▪ Heuristics▪ Decomposition
Focus on Process instead of outcomes
Group Activity
What types of decision problems in other’s lives…▪ Result in boredom and consequential inaction?▪ What’s for dinner?▪ Taxes?
“Routine” not routine Wasing dishes, cleaning Planning for the future (money) Stationary
▪ What to do about your examples?
▪ Result in panic/paralysis and consequential inaction?▪ Where to travel?▪ Marriage
“Representational” Beliefs
▪ RATIONALLY Reduce Uncertainty▪ Factual evidence (OBSERVABLE)▪Represent reality in an unbiased way▪Photos, recordings, dates of happenings ▪X -> Y
▪ Accepted or Rejected based on observability
“Self-Enhancing” Beliefs
IRRATIONALLY reduce uncertainty Accepted or Rejected based on▪ Self Concept▪ Lifestyle▪ Feelings
Chief Banjara Made a Poor Decision
At risk of reducing uncertainty by:▪ Shifting responsibility▪ The researchers made me do it!
▪ Looking for biased info▪ Subscribes to Pinto Aficionado Magazine▪ Join the Pinto Club
▪ Weakening other alternatives▪ Decry Subaru’s as out of touch with tribal values
▪ Creating excess reasons▪ “Pintos are close to beans, fruit of the earth, also my tribe”▪ “I like to drive knowing I could die at any instant, I am truly
in god’s hands and feel closer to her”
▪ Seek social support▪ Find other tribe leaders with Pintos
Are you thinking Rationally?
▪ TEST #1: How do you respond to challenging information?▪ “No sense in talking about that any more”▪ “There’s no alternative”▪ “I find this terribly upsetting”▪ “We’ve been through that and there’s no use spending more time on it”
Are you thinking Rationally?
▪ TEST #2: Are you willing to put your beliefs to the test?
OBSERVABLE??
Falsifiable??
Are you thinking Rationally?
▪ TEST #3: How do you respond to:
“If an independent analysis were completed for my alternatives, would I be willing to commit to and actually follow the recommended course of action?”
If “no”, then hooray, you’ve got Hidden Values to explore!
Escalating Commitment
▪Unwillingness to admit initial decisions were bad▪ Sunk costs▪Affect our feelings of competence
Resolving Escalating Commitment
▪ Set commitment limits in advance▪ Inform others of maximum commitment level▪Discuss with others who have no involvement in alternative▪ Analyze from a competitors shoes▪ “The card player up $2000” ▪ Does casino want you to leave?
Hope? Er… “Hope!”
▪ Rational decisions require:▪Cognitive conflict (gasoline)▪Hope (steering wheel)
Hope Defined here is a little different:
“Belief that rational, unbiased approach to decision-making will result in best outcomes”
Getting “Hope!”
▪+ Problem solving skills▪+ Notes and resources▪+ Knowing how to break problems apart▪+ Developing good relationships▪+ Practice/Experience